Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Steel and iron ore futures are range trading. Goldman presents further evidence that the steel and bulk markets are balanced for now. The forward order books of mills were flat to up MoM in November, better than the past seasonal pattern, while the absolute level of demand remains soft. Among all key demand segment, orders
You can’t keep a good DXY down, AUD smashed back to the canvas. North Asia has hardly responded yet. Gold weathered the storm. Dirt not so much. Nor miners. EM caput. Junk still a worry. As the US curve flattens. Stocks struggled. DXY is at the trading range highs. I expect this will eventually break
CBA Senior Economist Stephen Wu has released the bank’s forecasts for the upcoming monthly CPI indicator. CBA expects the monthly indicator to record annual headline inflation of 2.1% in October, near the bottom of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%. Wu notes that other measures of inflation have shown
Nothing better sums up the divergence of economic fortunes between young and older Australians than this week’s analysis of spending habits by age from the CBA. The only chart that comes close is the following, showing the collapse in home ownership rates among younger age cohorts, while older age home ownership rates have remained stable.
Gnarwarre Sunset AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 100 US S&P 500 UK !00 Japan 225 Easy Listening
Kevin07 is back. Kevin Rudd has declared Australia āis readyā to work closely with Donald Trump and his new administration to bolster an alliance which has never been more important or relevant. Australiaās ambassador in Washington said that in a world of āmany challengesā Australia welcomed an active and engaged United States in the Indo
The latest consumer price index (CPI) data for New Zealand showed that headline inflation had fallen to only 2.2% in the year ended Q3 2024, tracking within the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 1% to 3%. This would suggest that the Reserve Bank has slayed the inflation dragon. However, the latest Reserve Bank survey suggests
You know the lunatics are in charge of the asylum when Australia’s own National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is embroiled in corruption issues. When the Royal Commission on the Robodebt Scheme delivered its report, the commissioner in charge made great efforts to refer six individuals to the NACC for investigation. Many people were outraged, particularly the
The AEMO and other energy regulators are worried that Australia will suffer from severe gas shortages in the coming winter and every winter after that. They are behind the times. The East Coast gas cartel has delivered a permanent winter to Aussie energy prices. Whenever there is a price shock anywhere, including during northern hemisphere
Steven Blitz at TSLombard is excellent at times. If it were simply a matter of dealing with the economy as it is, the Fedās choices would be simpler as well. One more cut to get the funds rate Taylor Rule neutral and then stop. The road to recession still runs through the asset side of
The latest ANZ/CoreLogic housing affordability report has revealed the “impossible” barriers facing Australian first-home buyers. The national dwelling value-to-rent ratio hit an equal record high of eight in the September quarter of 2024. At the same time, Australian mortgage rates have roughly doubled from the pandemic low. The combination of higher prices and mortgage rates
Trump blowoff is still the base case. But, jeez, this market is vulnerable to shocks. The Market Ear. Unstoppable force of Momentum The Momentum factor has been on a tear lately. Source: GS Most overbought since 2007 US 1M Momo has rallied 18% in a week, pushing the 14D RSI to the most overbought level
It’s machine-like trading around the US dollar at the moment. DXY up is dirt, mining, EM and junk negative. Down is the inverse. Today we are down. AUD up. North Asia doesn’t want a bar of it. Dirt is flying. Miners more muted. EM up. Junk is still melancholy. Even as bonds are bid. With
Westpac with the note. ā¢ Leading Index has moved into positive territory, from ā0.20% in September to +0.26% in October. ā¢ This provides a tentative signal that growth momentum is set to improve from its current nadir. ā¢ Improvements mostly centred on components related to consumer sentiment and commodity prices. Hardly tearing it up.
Two charts tell the story of the bare-knuckled fight between the RBA and the Albanese government. In the blue corner is the RBA which won’t cut rates because trimmed mean inflation is too high at 3.5%. In the red corner is the Albanese government which has used energy rebates to lower headline inflation to 2.8%
The Coalition is under scrutiny for joining forces with the Greens to block legislation to cap new international student numbers from 2025. Education Minister Jason Clare says Opposition leader Peter Dutton has no credibility regarding immigration, given that he stated in his budget reply speech in May that a Coalition government would introduce a cap
Nothing special about this property easing. Leading index flatlined. Top tiers OK. Ghost cities fading. Inventory better. Completions ending the yer better too. A long way from out of the woods.
The Australian dream of home ownership is fading for younger Australians. The 2023 Intergenerational Report illustrated the sharp structural decline in home ownership rates among younger Australians, following decades of strong price growth and stagnating incomes. The above chart is based on 2021 Census data, and the housing affordability picture facing younger Australians has deteriorated
Last financial year, a record 3,000 construction firms in Australia were declared bankrupt (insolvent). At the end of the financial year, Gayle Dickerson from KPMG warned that insolvencies probably had not peaked. āWe havenāt hit the peak yet and how long until we do remains a question, which will be driven by broad economic circumstancesā,
The red earth, Newlyn, Victoria AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 Easy Listening
Earlier this month,Ā Accent Research released a survey showing that only 15% of respondents believed that younger Australians could purchase a home without financial assistance. The results followed an analysis from Money.com.au showing that homebuyers need to save a deposit of nearly $200,000 to purchase an average-priced home with lenders’ mortgage insurance. A separate analysis from
This is Australia. Via CBA. Australians are freeing up more of their wallet for discretionary purchases with a focus on value and convenience, according to the latest CommBank iQ Cost of Living Insights analysis. Overall spending continues to trail inflation, up by just 1.5 per cent compared to the same time last year.Ā Young Australians
The Albanese government’s Help-to-Buy shared equity scheme has been stuck in the Senate since February. Under the scheme, the federal government would provide 10,000 eligible participants with 40% of the purchase price of a new home and 30% for existing homes per year. To qualify for the scheme, participants must have a minimum deposit of
The RBA minutes are out and again it is making absolutely no sense. Looking ahead, headline inflation was forecast to remain temporarily within theĀ 2ā3Ā perĀ cent target range until the September quarter 2025, when the scheduled end to energy rebates would see it pick up. Inflation was not expected to return sustainably to the target until 2026,
The Market Ear on the Trump blowoff. Needs a pause DB writes: “The post-election move in positioning was the biggest weekly jump in positioning on record in our data going back to 2010”. DB Not low Consolidated equity positioning at rather stretched levels these days. DB Big in small caps Investors have “bumped” up the
