Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
In January, Auckland’s largest real estate agency, Barfoot & Thompson, reported a hefty decline in median and average sale prices. “The median sales price for the month at $950,000 was down 5% on that for December, while the average price at $1,053,446 was down 11.2% and sales numbers at 700 were down 16%”, Peter Thompson,
The SMH’s Matt Wade published an article claiming that Sydney will remain Australia’s largest city for at least another decade. This is based on the Centre for Population’s latest forecasts, which predict that Sydney’s population will be 6.5 million by 2034-35, versus Melbourne’s 6.4 million. “At the turn of the 21st century, Greater Sydney’s population
There will be no such thing because such innovative graft is beyond any Australian politician. Instead, there will be Albohouse. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has succeeded in renting out his $4.3 million clifftop home on the NSW Central Coast after lowering the price, likely bringing in thousands a month for the four-bedroom property. The latest
The Market Ear with more. MEGA Coming into Tariff Monday, Europe was experiencing its second-best start to the year and SXXP hit an ATH – of course, skeptics will highlight that this is against a low bar, and the outperformance is mostly valuation-driven (as opposed to earnings-inspired). However, 21 of 25 EU sectors have outperformed
There are two key reasons why the federal government loves running a high immigration program. First, immigration stimulates the aggregate economy, as measured by GDP. Running a high immigration policy allows the government to claim that it is an effective economic manager, even when per capita GDP growth is negative (as it is right now)
There’s no reason to stop it. Inflation is tumbling. Inflation expectations re-anchored. Wage growth is smashed. The recent consumer bounce is fragile and related to lifting expectations of easing. It is also still meaningfully below the RBA forecast. Goldman has more. We also upgrade our tracking estimate for GDP growth in 4Q2024 by 10bps to
You know an election is coming up when Labor-leaning economist Stephen Koukoulas (the ‘Kouk’) writes a propaganda piece in the Labor-leaning Independent Australia, claiming, “The miraculous Australian economy is the envy of the world”. Kouk claims, “The economy is kicking off 2025 in a fabulous spot structurally, even though the cyclical impact of high interest
It is happening in real-time in front of our faces. Emergency alerts about a shortage of electricity reserves hit an all-time record for a last quarter of the year in 2024, new data has revealed, as NSW’s two largest coal power stations suffered a spate of debilitating faults. The Australian Energy Market Operator issued 144
One has to ask why the Coalition seems to endorse the laundering of ‘dirty’ money into Australian property. Last year, the Coalition opposed legislation that included real estate agents, lawyers, and accountants in Australia’s anti-money laundering and terror financing regulatory net. These global “Tranche 2” anti-money laundering (AML) rules were first promised by the former
Yesterday I found Trump’s opening salvos in his trade wars confusing. Applying 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada for the same ostensible reason—fentanyl and illegal immigrants—made no sense given it only comes through Mexico. I theorised that the Canadian add-on was personal to Trump in light of Justin Trudeau’s poor relationship with him. Thinking it
Risk markets bounced back overnight despite the Chinese tariffs coming into effect as Wall Street rebounded alongside European bourses as the overbought USD was pushed back by all the undollars. The latest economic news from the US and solid earnings reports overshadowed the Trump Trade War with the Federal Reserve still expected to cut once
DXY reversed. AUD is printing multiple hammer candles. CNY reopens today after the LNY break. Gold is massively overbought. Dirt having another crack. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk meh. Yields meh. Stocks only go up. If the last few days are an example of Trump tariff objectives, then what has the market to be afraid
Australians have suffered their longest recession in modern history, with real per capita GDP declining for seven consecutive quarters as of Q3 2024. This decline in per capita GDP has been driven by the household sector, where consumption fell for six of the past seven quarters. This week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has
As Trump gets outmaneuvered by both Canada and Mexico, a new front in the trade war opened up against Chyna today which retaliated immediately in kind. Currency markets have reverted almost back to their pre-North American trade war starting points while gold continues to hold at record highs. Meanwhile the latest local consumer confidence figures
I have argued repeatedly that the Albanese government desperately needs the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates to bolster its re-election chances. The record decline in real household incomes and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis have negatively impacted Labor’s polling position. Therefore, Labor needs the RBA to cut interest rates to regain voters’
“Evil” Anna Bligh is to leave the banking lobby after eight years of political profiteering. Former Queensland premier Anna Bligh will retire from the Australian Banking Association after eight years of lobbying for the major banks, a period when she helped restore the reputation of a sector battered by the Hayne royal commission. The ABA
Emperor Xi and his CCP cronies have discovered a new and exciting way of pretending that the Chinese economy is rebalancing to consumption: vouchers. The first of the vouchers was an extra day for the LNY holiday to boost travel. It worked! But they forget to give them a cocktail voucher for when they go
Gallup released a survey in January, conducted across 140 countries with responses from 14,000 people (including 1,000 in Australia), showing that Australians are fed up with unaffordable housing. Only 22% of Australians were satisfied with home availability in 2024, a record low. In contrast, 76% expressed unhappiness, a discontent rarely seen in high-income countries. Only
Greater fools are driving the stock rally. The Market Ear. Cause for concern There are a number of “causes for concern” now when we look at positioning indicators. It has been retail investors that have done the majority of the buying over the last few days. Inflows into equity funds have been close to “manic-like”.
Australia has grown its population by around 8.5 million this century, driven by historically high net overseas migration, most of which is purportedly skilled. However, Australia’s skills shortages are supposedly worse than ever despite the surge in’ skilled’ migration. How could that be? Greg Jericho from The Guardian released research in October 2024 showing that
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Monday released dwelling approvals data for the month of December, which recorded total approvals of 15,378 in trend terms. As illustrated in the next chart, approvals have rebounded recently, driven by units & apartments. Even so, the 15,378 monthly approvals were 23% below the 20,000 monthly run rate
In November 2022, I lambasted immigration minister Andrew Giles for headlining a private Victorian Labor Party fundraising dinner organised by controversial Labor figure Jasvinder Sidhu. It was alleged that Indian migration agents paid $1,000 to attend the dinner to “buy” access to Giles and raised concerns with him about visa and migration policy issues. “We
Australia should look at the case of King Trump’s 25% Canada tariff and worry. The excuses for the tariff—drugs and illegal immigrants—are nonsense. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that Canada has allowed “millions and millions” of people to illegally enter the United States. However, with regard to Canada at least, U.S. Customs and Border
A heroes parade is on for those who predicted the gas crisis. Rod Sims leads us off. Former head of the competition regulator Rod Sims says he has been warning the Victorian Labor government about gas shortages for a decade but was ignored, after wild storms left more than 45,000 homes and businesses in the
Risk markets took their deep breath yesterday morning in reaction to the Trumpian Trade War but overshot as usual, with some mild recoveries overnight including Wall Street. Currency markets flocked to the USD but have recovered at least half of their respective movements with the Mexican turnaround or stay helping ease the volatility, although the
