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The new roaring twenties are US exceptionalism. The Market Ear has more. NASDAQ – can’t you see what’s going on? If it is all a risk on/off trade, then NASDAQ has some catching up to do. Chart shows NASDAQ vs BTC. Refinitiv Time to talk about Santa? Seasonality from here is very strong. Equity Clock
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the all-important Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which undershot economists and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) expectations. Headline inflation rose by only 02% in Q2, below economists’ expectations of a 0.3% increase. This result was weighed down by energy and rental subsidies. Michelle Marquardt, ABS
The aggregated polls have been swinging: The swing states are a dead heat: I am concerned that these polls cannot be trusted. Whenever you get uniform swings like this, it reeks of pollster consensus hugging. I wonder how much they are smoothing outliers. This is what happened in the 2019 Australian election when Scott Morrison
SHFE was soft yesterday: Dalian eked out gains: The news on China stimmies is a big round number: China is considering approving next week the issuance of over 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy, a fiscal package which is expected to be further
The report of the COVID-19 inquiry has concluded that the former Coalition government’s pandemic spending contributed to a spike in the inflation rate. Economic modelling presented to the inquiry found that inflation would have peaked at around 6% with less stimulatory spending by the government and ultra-low official interest rates. Inflation instead reached a high
“Dr Demography” Liz Allen from the Australian National University (ANU) is the go-to talking head whenever the media wants a quote about the fantastical benefits of mass immigration. Allen loves to spin positive ‘Big Australia’ propaganda. She also likes to label anyone against excessive immigration racist or xenophobic. A classic example of Allen’s propaganda was
DXY has paused for now: AUD has not and long positioning means it can keep falling. If it breaches 0.65 its uptrend is broken and all bets are off: North Asia is ugly: Gold is in blowoff. Oil might break: Metals are in purgatory: Miners too: EM is stuffed: Junk nervy: Yields down: Stocks up:
Michael Read from the Australian Financial Review published the following chart showing the strong growth in federal, state, and local government taxes over the past decade, which have hit a record share of gross domestic product. However, despite the record tax take, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Australia faces six years of deficits
Several of Australia’s major banks have pushed for an easing of credit standards to assist first home buyers. ANZ has called for looser credit, claiming that the current rules are precluding lower-income borrowers from gaining a home loan. ANZ also recently canvassed 50-year mortgage terms, which would lower monthly loan repayments and entice more buyers
Domain has released its house price results for the September quarter, which shows that median house price hit a record high of $1,655,000 following the seventh consecutive quarter gain. Sydney units also rose for the seventh consecutive quarter, hitting a record high of $815,300. As illustrated in the table below from Domain, Sydney’s median house
Albo, or is that Klepto, is not amused: The cracks in Anthony Albanese’s glass jaw are splintering as he desperately looks for scapegoats and blames others for his own actions in defending accusations over Qantas upgrades and VIP treatment. Albanese was visibly rattled in a train wreck press conference on Tuesday where he rambled and sought to
‘Haystack under the trees’ 1910s, Jo Sweatman, NGV AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was one of the most aggressive central banks in the world, lifting the official cash rate to a peak of 5.50%. As illustrated in the chart below from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro, New Zealand’s official cash rate remains overly restrictive, despite 0.75% of cuts delivered over the past
Throughout the last eight years of China pressuring Australia, the ALP has spent nearly all of its time blaming the LNP for the breakdown in the relationship. This blame came from all quarters, including Kevin07. The PM, former PMs, former and current foreign ministers, ministers, premiers, and wonks. Now, according to the mercurial Kevin07, they
The RBA has been aware of the possibility that consumer spending could be stronger than projected, especially given the significant boost to household income from the Stage 3 tax cuts. This would complicate their goal of sustainably returning inflation to target. The below video from Westpac provides an overview of the latest Westpac-DataX Consumer Panel.
The past twenty years saw an explosion of cafes across Australia. For example, when I moved to the Melbourne suburb of Ashburton in 2006, there were only a handful of cafes along the local High Street shopping strip. In the years leading up to the pandemic, the number of cafes expanded to more than a
The Market Ear with stock internals. Oil at massive levels (again) Oil is trading around the massive $72 area again. We have dipped below the level on a few occasions, but these are make or break levels to watch. Refinitiv Oil and rates Oil and rates have moved in perfect tandem for a long time.
The East Coast gas cartel continues to rort like it’s going out of style with gas prices glued above Albo failed $12Gj price cap even in the off-season: Leading directly to unseasonally high power prices: This makes statements yesterday by Barnaby Joyce rather interesting: Former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce says Australia will be “poor”
Build-to-rent (BTR) projects are large-scale residential developments, generally consisting of high-rise apartment blocks, in which all homes are owned and managed by a single business and rented out over a medium- to long-term period. BTR differs from the traditional build-to-sell model, in which a developer constructs an apartment complex and then sells off each individual
Data from the Department of Education shows there were a record 464,749 international students enrolled in Australian universities in the year to July 2024: While international enrolments have boomed, domestic enrolment applications collapsed to a decade low at the start of 2024: Meanwhile, new analysis from the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) shows that 25.4%
The Albanese government promised to cut immigration to support wages. It promised a functional National Anti-Corruption Commission. It promised cheaper power bills. It promised more affordable housing. Now Treasurer Jim Chalmers says there will be no cost-of-living “free-for-all” in the lead up to the election, instead promising that responsible economic management would be the defining
Former Treasurer Peter Costello hit back at calls to curb property tax concessions, namely negative gearing and the capita gains tax discount (CGT). Costello introduced the 50% CGT discount in 1999 and defended the current tax settings in a speech last week to the Property Council of Australia’s annual congress in Townsville. “Interest on borrowings
SHFE is going a second leg: With Dalian futures: The hope is captured by Goldman: NPC meeting November 4-8: The much anticipated bi-monthly National People’s Congress (NPC) standing committee meeting will take place during November 4-8. We expect the NPC to approve RMB1-2tn additional ultra-long-term central government special bond (ULT CGSB) issuance quota. In the
Last night was relatively calm for global risk markets although oil prices continued to fall from their weekend gap as Wall Street braces for a new round of earnings reports and the economic calendar begins to get busier in the latter half of the week. US stocks were able to close slightly higher while European
DXY is stable: AUD only goes down, though we should note that its uptrend is still intact: North Asia returns from whence it came: Goldmania, oilmageddon: Metals should follow the latter: Miners struggling: EM struggling: Junk nervous: Yields up, which is silly given oil. This trade is getting old: Stocks up: The runaway DXY is
