Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Despite the strong prospects of an interest rate hike, the nation’s final auction clearance rate bounced last weekend. Cotality recorded a final clearance rate of 66.4% last weekend, up from 57.1% in mid-December and 59.4% at the same time last year. Melbourne’s final clearance rate was 63.7% last week, up from 58.4% and 58.6% at
International Reading: Survey: 43% of Americans Don’t Have Savings to Pay for a $1,000 Emergency – US News Employers announce most job cuts since 2009 as economy wobbles – USA Today Warren to call for reversal of Trump’s UAE chip sales after ‘Spy Sheikh’ revelations – CNBC Trump is giving the U.S. economy a $65
Yes, this is my last post at MacroBusiness…see more below but first the final roundup of today’s markets: Its been a tough day on local markets with the ASX200 slumping while the nexus of the AI bubble on Wall Street, the Trump regime’s warmongering in Iran, a snap election in Japan and the latest US
Charts from TME. Semiconductors are threatening to follow software down as the NDX washout gathers momentum. To call the semis trade crowded doesn’t quite say it. Software doom is at hand. Overnight, Goldman declared the sector the new “Newspapers”. “Historical episodes of major disruption risk suggest that share price stabilization will require stability in the
The Victorian government has introduced a suite of tax increases and new levies that significantly raise holding costs for investors—primarily through lower land‑tax thresholds, expanded vacant‑residential‑land taxes, and new short‑stay levies. These changes mean more investors now pay land tax, and those who already paid are paying more. Therefore, holding costs for investment properties have
As we enter the Chinese Year of the Horse, which signifies dynamism, energy, and freedom, ANZ believes that Chinese growth is entering a new era. While such an assumption is okay in theory, the notion that Chinese growth is about to rise is pretty laughable to me. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is notoriously difficult to
The State of Queensland is running large operating deficits, averaging 3.2% of operating revenue between FY25–FY27. The operating deficit is expected to peak at nearly 6% in FY26. Deficits after capital spending are extremely large: 17–20% of revenue through FY27. A return to operating surplus is not expected until FY28. S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Queensland’s AA+
Following the resumption of rate rises from the RBA earlier this week, many Australians have been left wondering how things went so badly wrong that the RBA has needed to raise rates only a year after it started cutting them, despite the prior rate rise cycle delivering the largest relative rise in mortgage rates in
Regional Australia should be alarmed by the latest long-term projections from the Centre for Population, which risk tilting the nation’s power balance further in the cities’ favour. To recap, the Centre for Population’s 2025 Population Statement projects that the nation’s population will grow by 3,860,000 over the 11 years to 2035–36, with most (80%) of
DXY is back and showing no signs of fatigue. The AUD looks like a man clinging to the edge of a cliff. It has overshot its CNY sponsor. The Japan problem is back. Gold puked again. Copper longs must be feeling it. AI metals are in free fall. Big mining parabola goes “pop”. EM down.
Melbourne’s status as an economic wasteland continues to grow. The latest labour force data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), presented below by CBA, shows that Victoria has recorded the steepest rise in unemployment in the nation: Victoria’s trend unemployment rate is also the highest in the nation at 4.7%, sitting well above the
The ferrous jaws are finally closing. Another 3-4% and we will be at some kind of weak equilibrium in steel profits. That is, if steel prices don’t start falling again. And they well might. CISA output for the last ten days of January was poor. The year has started tracking 2019. There was a silver
A blowout in US unemployment claims, a collapse in cryptocurrencies and more unease over the AI uber-bubble added to rise in volatility across risk markets overnight as Wall Street fell back again, taking other markets with it. The USD continued its comeback against most of the majors, particularly the Aussie, Loonie and Kiwi while the
Australia’s 50% capital gains tax (CGT) discount for individuals (introduced in 1999) has come under renewed scrutiny, with a broad coalition calling for reform to ease the housing affordability crisis, bolster the federal budget, and improve intergenerational equity. The push spans economists, think tanks, former regulators, international bodies, the New South Wales Treasurer, and even
Not a good day for precious metals or crypto currencies as Asian share markets also remain in a dour mood after the poor showing on Wall Street overnight. The USD is strengthening again and holding back the Australian dollar which is struggling to get back above the 70 cent level despite a good trade print
As noted many times, Australia enjoyed a few brief sane years of trade diversification when ScoMo stuck COVID up Beijing in 2020 and the nation responded by looking for other markets. Since then, Albo has bent over forwards to restore the same trade vulnerability. Thankfully, he partially failed because the Chinese trade mix has changed,
NDX is threatening to make a mess as recent range breaks down. Charts from TME. The fringe always leads the centre. Enough? SOX socked. So far, it has been software that has crashed, but if semis follow, then the AI story is cracking up. Tech volatility is near range lows unless this is something new.
The Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme has encouraged many Australian first-home buyers to enter the market. Introduced in October 2025, the First Home Buyer Guarantee program allows eligible buyers to purchase a home with a 5% deposit, with the federal government guaranteeing the remaining 15%. This means buyers avoid paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI), which
As the full scope of the decline of the Coalition continues to become apparent, elements of the Labor base are revelling in the ongoing political demolition of their longtime rivals. According to the latest polling from RedBridge, the Coalition is polling just 19% for their primary vote, compared with 26% for One Nation. While it’s
The ferrous jaws are closing, though we still need a price nearer to $90 for iron ore for steel enterprises to make sense. With a mild cyclone season so far, price pressure is likely to continue into CNY, which runs from February 16 to February 22. Typically, there is some kind of bounce afterwards before
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate (OCR) by half (2.25%) since mid-2024: These rate cuts by the Reserve Bank have reduced mortgage borrowing costs dramatically, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro: Normally, such a sharp reduction in interest rates would stimulate activity, leading to a rebound
One of the worst fads of the energy transition has been the push from various state authorities to get households off gas and onto electricity. Tony Wood at the corrupt Grattan Institute began it. Various gullible and noxious pollies, especially in VIC, embraced it as a great distraction from Wood’s former employer and Grattan sponsor,
Victorians have experienced acute Stockholm Syndrome with respect to the state Labor government. Victoria’s nine-month lockdown during the Covid-19 outbreak was among the longest and most severe in the world. The state government’s incompetence in handling hotel quarantine and enforcement contributed to this situation. Victoria’s infrastructure projects have experienced massive cost overruns, and the government
DXY isn’t going away as Trump cancelled a Friday meeting with Tehran. Australian dollar fell but remains strong. CNY is supportive. JPY is about to become a problem again. Gold trying. Iranian oil lift. AI metals are in free fall. Miners don’t care. Jim Cramer is now recommending RIO. Look out below. EM toppy. Junk
Another uneasy night on risk markets with concerns mounting over the Iranian situation as talks collapse while Wall Street took another tumble on tech stock volatility. The USD came back against some of the majors, particularly Yen while a fall in commodities like copper and gold saw the Australian dollar lose ground to revert below
