Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
As the global economy continues to decelerate amidst a backdrop of escalating trade conflicts and war in the Middle East, interest rate futures markets are increasingly pricing in additional rate cuts from the RBA. As of the latest close of the futures market, roughly 3.9 rate cuts are priced in by the market over the
One of the reasons China grovelers are so prevalent in Australia is the argument that China is one of the few substantial countries with which we have a trade surplus. This is true. But for how long? Albo’s three year Great Grovel of China has been so successful that Aussie exports are imploding while imports
As I have noted for many years, managing money successfully in Australia is as stupid as the structure of the underlying economy. The only question before any fund manager that matters, given his/her reliance on relative returns, is whether to be overweight miners or banks. Equally, for a year or so I have been arguing
The Market Ear on extreme greed! Say hello to extreme greed We are back in extreme greed land, trading at the most “greedy” levels since Feb 2024. Source: MacroMicro Finally Bulls getting excited and bears starting to give up. Not at extreme levels, but getting closer. Source: LSEG Workspace Nets catch up Net leverage for
DXY bounced with solid US jobs. AUD did not. Lead boots plod on. Gold gets more worrying by the day. Metals reversed. The big bear is not over. EM signs of life. But yields weighing. No bueno for BBB. Stocks only go up. US jobs were solid. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in
Overnight saw the passage of the Trump regime’s Big Bloody Awful Bill for the middle/working class by the Republican controlled Congress, but this was overshadowed by a surprisingly upbeat NFP print that negated the negative ADP print the session before. While the BBB will lead to the near permanent destruction of low/middle America it is
Stock markets were doing well in Asia until it seemed like a leak of tonight’s US unemployment print by Trump spitting his dummy calling for Fed Chair Powell’s resignation. This saw most equities pull back alongside S&P futures while the USD firmed against the undollars, with Yen easing off as speculation the BOJ may raise
The St Louis Fed recently did an interesting AI survey that suggested the benefits of AI are large in certain areas but far from uniform. For each generative AI user, we computed the percentage of working hours saved as the ratio of time saved in the previous week to hours worked in that same week.
Wokey has been trying to turn Australia into a Chinese satrap for a few years now. It is little more than jingoistic and self-serving ignorance as it bristles about losing Big Tech revenues, but it’s currently in tune with local Trump Derangement Syndrome, so it is more dangerous than usual. Wokey can barely contain itself
Gone through 2026. The ABS. The seasonally adjusted balance on goods decreased $2,621m in May. Goods credits (exports) decreased $1,168m (2.7%) driven by Non-rural goods. Goods debits (imports) increased $1,453m (3.8%) driven by Capital goods. The year has been OK for exports because most of the bulk commodity falls have been in coal, which is largely
One of the narratives put forward for high levels of immigration into Australia is that migrants are required to build sorely needed homes. At face value it seems to make sense. After all, we have a housing deficit that AMP’s Shane Oliver puts at up to 300,000 homes (once household demographic factors are added in)
If we imagine for a moment that pigs had little wings and made their home in the skies, and governments would do nothing to attempt to boost property prices even as they flatlined or grew at a level consistent with the CPI, we can credibly forecast a scenario in which housing would be on the
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen looked through what worked in 2025, what didn’t and where we are opening 2026. View the presentation slides Can’t make it to the live series? Catch up on the content via Podcasts or our recorded Videos. Damien Klassen is Chief Investment Officer at the Macrobusiness Fund, which is
In the nation’s collective consciousness, there is the narrative that there is a city experiencing a nation-beating exodus, where outflows of its residents are on the road to being biblical in their scale. That city is Melbourne. In the years since the pandemic began, the perception of the bayside city has changed dramatically, from one
As the cost of living crisis continues to bite for millions of Australian households across the country, the experience for other households could scarcely be more different. While stereotypes of irresponsible young people living off $15 coffees and smashed avocado on toast are legion on social media, the data from CommBank iQ presents a completely
This is going to be a great short. I’m looking to get set on either side of the coming round of July Politburo meetings. The Chinese economy is far worse than anybody is talking about. It’s not growing at 5%, or at all, quite possibly. Steel production is on track to be down by its
The Market Ear with the charts. Buy the dip BTD has been very strong in 2025. As we have been outlining for weeks, this still has a lot of 2020 flavor to it. BofA LSEG Workspace Gross Grossing up… GS Short suckers Market is “sucking shorts” out of the market. This is a longer term
DXY held its ground last night. So did AUD. Lead boots are marching on. Oil had a little pop going into OPEC. Another copper bubble is here. Big miners ripped within the monster bear. EM yawn. Junk yawn. The curve flattened on bad data. Stocks only go up. ADP was our before tomorrow’s BLS and
Last night saw the release of the latest US private jobs data which shocked with only a 33K increase over an expected 100K plus, which puts tonight’s NFP print into clear perspective and shows the employment market may not be as robust as Fed Chair Powell thinks. Wall Street ignored the print and focused on
A relatively calm session here in Asia with only slight movements in currency markets as the Australian dollar had a small blip after some disappointing retail sales numbers while share markets are absorbing the passing of the “End of the Empire” bill in the US senate. Oil markets continue to steady after their recent correction
In the past week, New Zealand’s financial markets have been primarily influenced by global events, with little guidance provided by local data. Markets continue to anticipate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will skip a cut at the next meeting on July 9 and then cut rates again in August. The RBNZ has already
Failing US ambassador Kevin Rudd yesterday met with failing foreign affairs minister Penny Wong. Here is the happy couple responsible for a sharp deterioration in the US alliance. A nastier pair of beearches you are unlikely to meet. The failed Rudd now requires the support of the foreign minister to get his job done. Penny
When the word freedom comes to mind in our collective consciousness, it can be interpreted in a number of different ways. It can be an expression of one’s ability to share their ideas or views freely, or it can relate to one’s capability to go about one’s day unimpeded by a Draconian state. But there
In the run up to the latest Australian retail sales data analysts were expecting a sizable +0.4% month on month bounce, after April saw nominal retail sales fall by 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. In reality, retail sales rose by just 0.18% in May, marking yet another weak report for the nation’s retail economy.
At the recent World Economic Forum’s (WEF) annual meeting at Tianjin, China, Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged that China will become a “consumption powerhouse” capable of fuelling domestic and global growth. “This will make China a mega-sized consumption powerhouse, on top of being a manufacturing powerhouse,” Li said “We are on track to become a
