Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Asian share markets are quite mixed as we go into the final session of the trading week with local shares outperforming. The USD remains firm due to safe haven bids except against Yen while the oil price has been beaten back slightly. The Australian dollar is failing to get back above the 67 cent level.
All things Australian dollar are struggling a little this afternoon. DXY is firm. AUD sideways. CNY is still a thermal. But the metals complex is off. And miners.Ā Plus EM. Still no joy for junk. Treasuries are flatlined. Stocks in a grind. Chinese regulators can be quite heavy-handed at times. MetalsĀ fell at the end of
Are LNG imports worthwhile given the approaching global glut? Laborās domestic gas reservation scheme has delayed talks on LNG imports into the countryās southeast by at least six months, but has not eliminated the need to bring in gas, according to aspiring suppliers. They say the scheme will largely create an increase in available gas
In the not too distant past the metric net long term and permanent arrivals was a pedestrian and almost boring indicator for most, used by the like’s of the federal government’s Centre For Population as a leading directional indicator for future migration flows and by extension population growth. The image below is an excerpt from
TME with the charts. Time to MOVE? US 10 year has done very little over the past months, and we are actually trading at the same levels we traded at in late 2022. This has been reflected in bond volatility. MOVE has crashed since the Liberation day chaos, but note the 10 year is getting
During a meeting I had with a senior foreign economist at a major investment house six years ago, I explained how the mass-immigration economy would prevent any risk from engulfing the banking system. She asked how sustainable such an approach was, given the obvious deleterious distributive effects of the growth model (that is, it is
Since 2018, the Australian government has been attempting to negotiate what is one of the toughest and most time-consuming diplomatic agreements in the world: a free trade agreement with the European Union (EU). In that time, there have been several major sticking points for the two sides, from the acceptable volume of Australian meat and
Chinese credit growth data for December was released overnight. It was OK for the month, but the year was terrible, and the components were worse still. Total social financing was reasonable at 2.2tr yuan. However, broad credit still slowed to 8.3%. And let’s not forget that this number is being significantly boosted by bond issuance
The iron ore jaws have eased slightly. Bearish commentary is spreading. Iron ore’s robust start to the year is at odds with market fundamentals, as China’s steel output is on course for a seven-year low and port stockpiles have ballooned. The rally in iron ore futures is being driven by improved risk appetite and expectations
Wall Street lifted slightly on a better than expected weekly initial jobless claim print in the US (led by the fact that you can’t be jobless if you’re in an ICE concentration camp or on a plane exiting the country) while oil prices dived 5% on news the Iranian strikes by the Trump regime were
When the government of Prime Minister Robert Menzies was elected in 1949, it came with a pledge to focus on raising home ownership rates and giving Australians a stake in society. Seven years earlier, in 1942, Menzies delivered a wartime radio address to the Australian people, arguing that home ownership was vital to a stable
Silver took a nose dive as the Trump regime enacted a critical minerals directive plus tariffs on semiconductors amid more national security beat-ups while still promising an attack on Iran keeping other risk markets in check. The USD remains somewhat firm due to safe haven bids while the oil price has been beaten back slightly.
Perhaps we can be grateful that Australia’s capital city and its national interest policy process are so far gone from sense that no legislation is any longer possible. Thus, the response to the horror of the Bondi massacre appears to be melting down faster even than it was ill-conceived. Having allowed himself to be bullied
Charts thanks to TME. SPX range high reversion. Three black crows for tech. VolĀ of vol on the move. Rotation to the mini-me. Ā Vix is very short. And will soon get the accelerant. Some vol moving ahead. Anarcho-imperialsim is here as a market factor. It takes a pretty sizable geopolitical shock to make a
Roy Morgan reports that mortgage stress has fallen to its lowest level since January 2023, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) three 25 bp rate cuts. Roy Morgan classified 24.7% of mortgage holders as ‘At Risk’ of’ mortgage stress’ in the three months ending November 2025, a 3.2% decrease from August 2025 and significantly
In recent months, the evolution of events and rhetoric over Greenland has been absolutely unprecedented. “Unprecedented” is a word that has been thrown around a great deal in recent memory, but in this instance, it’s entirely apt. On one side of the divide over the issue, there are reports that U.S. President Donald Trump ordered
Cotality’s Chart Pack for December shows that dwelling values nationally increased by 2.9% in the final quarter of 2025, with regional values (3.5%) outpacing capital city values (2.7%). One of the key factors driving the rise in Australian dwelling values is the complete dearth of homes available for sale. Cotality’s data shows that total listings
Wow. For a market that is falling apart, there are some amazing things happening to hold the iron ore price aloft. Chinese December trade data yesterday smashed record import volume at an astounding 119.65mt. Steel exports were at a record, too, as some mills frontloaded ahead of the new export licensing system. But the chart
Its all about Iran across risk markets as “peace” President Trump looks set to attack another country (how many is that this year so far) with oil prices still in the balance despite a big lift in US inventories overnight. The latest earnings on Wall Street offset better than expected retail sales numbers but Wall
DXY is still thinking about rising. AUD has been bombed by Irna but is holding support at former resistence. Who’s your Daddy? Golden rocket offering no entry points. AI metals blowoff supreme. EM hit with a Chinese margin call. Still no support from junk. A little bit of safe haven buying. Stocks nervy. The fog
Any reasonable person should hate these hate laws. Andrew Hastie for PM. Mr Hastie on Wednesday afternoon doubled down on his opposition to the bill, which he said was āan attack on our basic democratic freedoms, freedom of conscience, freedom of speech and freedom of religionā. Just get out of the way for Andrew, Susan.
In debates over the appropriate level of migration into various Western nations, there is often a narrative that a significant reduction in the intake would entail major economic costs. However, a new report by TD Economics Chief Economist Beata Caranci questions the impact of migration cuts on the Canadian economy. In Canada, the unemployment rate
Asian share markets are still lifting across the board, performing better than transatlantic shares at least despite some mixed economic news from Japan and China. The rising tensions in Iran with the Trump regime standing by with itchy trigger fingers is keeping oil elevated while the USD remains somewhat firm despite a softer than expected
According to the most recent NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO), business confidence increased significantly in the last quarter of 2025. Seasonally adjusted, a net 39% of businesses anticipate improved overall economic conditions in the upcoming months. With business confidence at its highest level since March 2014, this was a significant rise from the
Oddly, the Murdoch press has taken the lead in curtailing free speech amid culture wars, despite its earlier strong stance against identity politics. Its obsessed critic, Crikey, is completely silent on the end of the free speech bill. I can only assume former firebrand Eric Beecher is in a coma. The ABC almost exclusively portrays
