Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Tuesday’s monthly arrivals and departures figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that a record 393,874 people arrived in Australia on a net permanent or long-term basis in the first nine months of 2024. While net arrivals have slowed since March, the figures suggest that net overseas migration into Australia remains hot. Immigration
DXY is a SpaceX rocket. AUD broke its uptrend. With markets long the battler, there is nothing to stop it falling. As North Asia begins the competitive devaluation to defy Trump tariffs. Gold could/should crash in this environment. We’re gonna need more stimmies, Capt’! Miners flushed. EM lol. Junk is melancholy rather than scared. As
Wednesday’s wage price index data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was weaker than expected, growing by 0.8% in Q3 and 3.5% year-on-year. The result was slightly lower than economists’ expectations of 0.9% growth in Q3 and 3.6% growth year-on-year. The following chart plots the growth in Australian wages in real inflation-adjusted terms against
Barry’s Reef Trees AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD GOLD WTI BRENT Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 Easy Listening
This is funny from The Market Ear Buy everything you can That is Bernstein’s take on crypto. They write: “…add crypto exposure asap, Call us if you need help”. If you had regulatory concerns, the investment bank urges you to “invert your mental mind”. They see BTC at $200k by year end 2025. King of
Statistics New Zealand released data showing that Kiwis are leaving in droves to escape the worst recession in decades. Annual net permanent and long-term migration inflows fell to 44,900 annually in September, the lowest since January 2023. September saw a net permanent and long-term (PLT) inflow of only 2,310 persons in seasonally-adjusted terms, with the
President-elect Donald Trump is lining up his China hawks. Just days after he won a return to the White House, the outlines of Donald Trump’s foreign policy are becoming clear: squeeze Iran, support Israel, confront China. The expected appointment of Marco Rubio as secretary of state and the naming of combat veteran Mike Waltz to
If we add mining subsidies, it is more $80bn! Prosper with the report. Australian states could capture an additional $14.5 billion in revenue each year by moving to a more flexible royalty model with variable rates that adjust to market conditions. “Australians own the rights to mineral and petroleum resources, but the states as our
Westpac sums it up. In the September quarter, the Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.8% (3.5%yr), on par with Westpac’s forecast but a touch softer than the market consensus of 0.9%. It is also below the RBA’s expectation which pointed to a 0.9%qtr rise in both the September and December quarters of 2024. Wage inflation
It appears the subaltern Australian mind is so brow-beaten that, like our American cousins, we are ready to give away our freedoms to would-be tyrants. Constitutional law expert Anne Twomey has warned Labor’s bid to crack down on online misinformation could “all go very wrong”, raising concerns over the outsourcing of censorship decisions to foreign-owned social
What an intellectual mess Chris Uhlmann is. The piece he writes today is so confusing that he should give the NDIS a call. The man charged with delivering Labor’s pledge to source 82 per cent of electricity from wind, solar and hydro power by 2030 says natural gas will be the “ultimate backstop” for keeping
The latest new car sales data from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) showed that sales nationally are trending lower, down 7.9% year-on-year in October. This decline in new car sales has been matched by the fall in motor vehicle registrations this year. FCAI chief executive Tony Webber noted that the industry is “concerned
The Market Ear on the runaway Trumpflation. And the winner is When you need proper leverage, you go for the mania 2x. MSTU, 2x MSTR, up some 50% today. Source: Refinitiv The one and only The dollar continues surfing with the DXY printing the highest levels since late June/early July. We outlined our long dollar
It is best to stop digging when you are in a financial hole. The Victorian government is drowning in debt with the lowest credit rating in the nation. The world’s two largest credit rating agencies, S&P Global and Moody’s, recently warned that Victoria faced further downgrades unless it controls its debt. One year ago, newly
Labor’s first federal budget in October 2022 projected 470,000 net overseas migration (NOM) in the first two years (FY 23 and 24). Instead, Labor allowed in around one million NOM over two years, more than double its forecast. On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released monthly net long-term arrivals data, indicating that immigration
It wasn’t really a good time and sure wasn’t a long time, as Chinese property appears to be slowing once more. Goldman has more. Our refined easing impact tracker indicates that over the 6th week since this easing cycle, we find: 1)aggregated primary/secondary volumes recorded-29%/+1% wow and were 42%/65% higher than pre-easing level (vs. average
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ‘s interest rate decision last week was undeniably “hawkish”. The RBA explicitly stated that “underlying inflation is too high” at 3.5% and admitted that it underappreciated the strength of public spending, which has inflated aggregate demand and kept unemployment low. The NAB business survey was released on Tuesday and
As expected, the DXY MAGA boom is a global wrecking ball. AUD is on the verge of a new medium-term downtrend. CNY is being let go. JPY won’t have it. Very AUD bearish. Gold and oil haven’t had a proper flush yet. It’s coming if trends continue. Dirt is threatening to get there first. Miners
The 2023 Intergenerational Report presented the following chart showing the structural decline in property ownership among younger Australians. In 1981, over 55% of Australians aged 25 to 29 owned a home. Four decades later, there has been a dramatic reduction to slightly more than 35%. The gap narrows as you progress up the age groups.
‘Defunct Otways tractor #4’ AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 Easy Listening
New Resolve Political Monitor polling shows voters have swung away from the federal Greens. The Greens’ net likeability rating has dropped to minus 19 percentage points, down from minus 1 in the previous federal election. Bandt’s net likeability rating has dropped to minus 15 percentage points, with only independent senator Lidia Thorpe (minus 40 percentage
Gold is a nice snapshot of everything that is going wrong with commodities today. The DXY steamroller is loose. Real yields too. Overbought, oh dear. This is not over. We have not seen a macro regime so hostile to gold and commodities since 2015, when the Chinese economy was slowing and the US economy was
If you want to know why the Trump administration is back, look no further than Australia’s fake left so ably represented at The Guardian. The paper frequently complains about the housing market while using smug videos from patronising and economically ignorant Millennials as support. Kyle Ward wants to own a home. He and his wife have
The Market Ear on Yardeni’s Roaring Twenties Animal Spirits Roaring 2020s, Animal spirits, Trump 2.0 and world peace….How bullish can you get? Here is Yardeni’s new take on the current backdrop. “We are raising our S&P 500 year-end targets as follows: 6100 (2024), 7000 (2025), and 8000 (2026). We are now targeting 10,000 by the
Yawn. Bitcoin continued its relentless surge higher, climbing above $88,000 for the first time, boosted by President-elect Donald Trump’s embrace of digital assets and the prospect of a Congress featuring pro-crypto lawmakers. Trump’s decisive victory in the presidential election has prompted celebratory chest-thumping from the digital-asset industry, which spent over $100 million backing a range of crypto-friendly
