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Elizabeth Knight is one of Australiaâs best economic and business journalists, and she regularly writes informative, perceptive and lucid commentary on markets, the economy, and the actions of the corporate world. Knight is one of very few in the Nine world of whom you can assume you will read something intelligent. Her piece this week,
DXY was stable overnight: AUD was blasted anyway: North Asia carry crashes are back: Oil broke closing technical support: Metals mayhem: Miners mauled: EM at the neckline: Junk hiccupping: Treasury curve through the roof: Stocks through the floor: US jobs were Goldilocks really: Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment
SHFE and SGX were smashed this week: Overnight, Mad Dalian hit another new low: Coking coal is in free fall: Scuttlebutt is still terrible: In August, domestic steel demand weakened further, while steel production decreased, according to CSLPC. Iron ore’s slump comes as the China Iron & Steel Association advised mills against the impulse to
International Reads: Kamala Harris’ magic number for revamping the corporate tax rate is nearly double what Trump is proposing – Fortune Goldman Sachs: Kamala Harris would be better for economy – NY Daily A Kamala Harris win and a Democratic sweep would give the biggest boost to the economy, Goldman Sachs says – QZ Germany
Asian share markets remain uncertain leading up to tonight’s US unemployment print with only local stocks advancing appreciably while currency markets tread water although the USD is starting to soften again. Yen remains on a tear while the Australian dollar remains surprisingly resilient as it extends above the 67 cent level. Oil futures are looking
According to CoreLogic, home values across New Zealand fell by 0.5% in August, with Auckland seeing the biggest decline at 1.0%: On a quarterly basis, dwelling values declined by 2.2% across New Zealand, with falls recorded across all major markets: Home values have fallen 16.8% from their post-Covid peak, with Auckland (-21.8%) and Wellington (-21.5%)
Somehow, it’s not as funny as usual. Australia, the worldâs second largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is preparing to do what no one saw coming. Import gas for its own citizens. âLook, itâs simple economics,â said the government spokesperson. âWe had a lot of gas. China and other countries needed gas. So, we
Wayne Swan taught Jim “chicken” Chalmers everything he knows: Former Labor federal treasurer Wayne Swan has backed the governmentâs attitude towards inflation, saying he is âvery disappointedâ in the Reserve Bank and it was âpunching itself in the face.â Mr Wayne, who was Jim Chalmersâs boss, slammed the RBA for âhammering householdsâ with interest rates
Last week, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) announced new energy supply and demand projections for the next decade. According to AEMO, a slower uptake of battery-electric vehicles (EVs) will reduce demand on the electrical system. In December, AEMO predicted that seven million electric vehicles would be sold over the following ten years, but that
While ordinary Australians are suffering through the worst cost-of-living crisis in generations and a record decline in household disposable incomes. The Albanese government is gifting fat salaries to senior public sector bureaucrats. A few months back, incoming Governor-General Sam Mostyn was awarded a 43% pay rise to $709,000 a year to compensate for a lack
What else can we call it? The multiple on the bourse is fast approaching COVID overvaluations. Even as earnings fall away and the outlook is no better as bulk commodity prices collapse. The bubble is led by banks: But is broad-based: Hilariously, it is better than elsewhere: Goldman has more. Misses out-numbered Beats (38% vs
A simple fact of macro management that Treasurer Dr Jim “chicken” Chalmers appears unaware of: Jim Chalmers has credited record government spending and Laborâs budget strategy for keeping Australia out of recession amid the weakest non-pandemic economic growth since 1991, using the data to reject the Reserve Bankâs claim the economy is ârunning too hotâ.
The chair of Australia’s National Housing Supply and Affordability Council, Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz, attacked the government’s planned caps for international students, claiming that it won’t ease the rental crisis and will endanger Australia’s second-largest export industry. Caps on international student numbers would likely have “very little effect” on housing supply, according to Ms Lloyd-Hurwitz. “Because students
The RBA is about to lose the interest rate debate: Government subsidies for childcare, aged care and disability care have surged more than 20 per cent in the past year, but Labor has left the door open to more public spending ahead of the next election despite economists warning that this is unsustainable. Explosive growth
The Market Ear on the AI money printer. This is not a bubble Goldman and BlackRock are both out with “thought-pieces” defending Tech in general and AI in specific. It is definitely not a bubble…..And at the same time Ilya raises $1bn at $5bn valuation with no business plan. Tech baby Goldman wants you to
Earlier this week, Treasurer Jim Chalmers publicly attacked the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), claiming that its restrictive monetary policy is “smashing the economyâ. Chalmers’ salvo came about because he knew that if the RBA doesn’t start cutting rates, Labor faces the prospect of becoming a one-term government. On Thursday, I was interviewed by Bill
SHFE and SGX fell smartly yesterday. SGX bounced overnight: Mad Dalian did likewise: Coking coal too: Coking coal is down a very long way from the Ukraine War highs. Expect it to be sub-$100 before this is over: Scuttlebutt is instructive: “In contrast to last week’s mild rebound, iron ore futures in China started this
Again risk markets remain anxious leading up to tonight’s official US NFP print with a preview through the private ADP report and weekly initial jobless claims not settling the nerves despite no surprises. Treasury yields lifted again while Wall Street vacillated between losses and gains, with European shares still falling amid growth concerns. Commodity markets
DXY fell overnight: Cutting AUD some slack: North Asia is up and away: Oil has the world’s ugliest chart despite OPEC output cuts: Metals will go down with it: Big miners are sitting ducks: EM is all washed up: Junk bullish! Yields plunging! Stocks don’t know if it is good news or bad: My view
Last month, CBA economists estimated that the household savings war chest accumulated over the pandemic will be largely exhausted by the end of the year. As a result, “the boost to consumer spending power in 2024/25 via the 1 July 2024 tax cuts will be partially offset by the decline of the tailwind on consumption
I do not like the Coalition’s spokesman on home ownership, Andrew Bragg. However, Bragg is correct in cautioning against build-to-rent housing, warning that it will “put Australia on a path to emulate the USâs corporate housing model”. “We do not want to emulate the American corporate housing model. We want people to own our homes
On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the Q2 national accounts, which revealed that real per capita GDP declined by six consecutive quarters and for seven of the past eight quarters: Australia’s real per capita GDP is now 2.0% lower than it was when the Albanese government took office in June 2022. The
Australia’s war between monetary and fiscal authorities is intensifying as Michelle Bullock fired back at her lost Treasurer: The key drivers of elevated inflation at the moment are housing costs and market services inflation, which remain above their average levels and have been easing only gradually. On the housing side, this reflects both construction cost
Asian share markets remain in a sea of caution leading up to tomorrow night’s US unemployment print with only local stocks advancing appreciably while currency markets tread water. Yen however remains on a tear due to some words of warning from the BOJ today. Commodities are still weak but this hasn’t hindered the Australian dollar
New housing minister Clare O’Neil should be reported to the Albanese government’s disinformation register. Last month, O’Neil was accused of misleading parliament by making up expert evidence on the housing crisis: Last week, O’Neil then that “Australia is in a housing crisis because we have a housing shortage. To answer this crisis, our country needs to build
