Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers is warming up to spend. In a speech to parliament on Wednesday, the Treasurer said increased public expenditure had protected the nation from recession, despite economists warning it was putting upward pressure on inflation. “The economy has continued to grow, but barely … it would have been negative in the March
Former Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced in 2023 that the state would build 80,000 homes annually for the next ten years. Since Labor formed the government in 2014, Victoria has never built more than 70,000 new homes in a calendar year. Therefore, the 80,000 annual target necessitates a significant increase in construction activity. However, the
The Future Fund, which is one-third the size of the Australian economy, will be directed to invest in housing, security, and the green energy transition “where possible, appropriate, and consistent with strong returns”. In a joint statement, Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher committed that “the government won’t start any drawdowns from the
Is Trump Hitler? It is a question being proffered by the left with increasing frequency. And, equally, dismissed by the right. There are parallels. Mostly in the methods of management and control. Trump’s cadre of self-absorbed nutters is easily comparable to Goering, Himmler, Goebels, Heydrich and Bormann. While this is, currently, conjecture, he’ll be playing his
Morgan Stanley with the note. Our Global Economics team expects another couple of years of ~3% Y/Y real global GDP growth. Inflation in major developed economies is still stabilizing after the Covid surge, and our team sees additional progress next year, albeit less progress than in 2024. Regionally, they expect US growth to slow in
Earlier this year, the NSW Productivity and Equality Commission (PEC) lamented that young Sydneysiders were leaving the city, forced out by high housing costs. The NSW PEC advocated easier planning rules and the widespread construction of high-rise shoebox apartments rather than the most straightforward solution of lowering net overseas migration. Net overseas migration into NSW
Australian energy is a disaster. We are trying to transition from coal to renewables with both hands tied behind our backs. The issue is neither. It is gas. The East Coast gas export cartel is driving the price unseasonably higher as we speak. If it continues much longer, off-season electricity pricing will bottom out far
AFR Education Editor Julie Hare argues that the ‘crackdown’ on migration will worsen Australia’s chronic skills shortage. Professor Eric Knight, Macquarie University’s deputy vice-chancellor (people and operations), says politicians’ – and the community’s – growing “intolerance for migration” is adding fuel to the flames of skill shortages as unemployment remains at almost historically low levels.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) noted in the minutes of its board meeting for November that there are signs that the job market is beginning to tighten. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1% in October. RBA governor Michelle Bullock has previously indicated that the strength of the labour market is among the reasons
Steel and iron ore futures are range trading. Goldman presents further evidence that the steel and bulk markets are balanced for now. The forward order books of mills were flat to up MoM in November, better than the past seasonal pattern, while the absolute level of demand remains soft. Among all key demand segment, orders
You can’t keep a good DXY down, AUD smashed back to the canvas. North Asia has hardly responded yet. Gold weathered the storm. Dirt not so much. Nor miners. EM caput. Junk still a worry. As the US curve flattens. Stocks struggled. DXY is at the trading range highs. I expect this will eventually break
CBA Senior Economist Stephen Wu has released the bank’s forecasts for the upcoming monthly CPI indicator. CBA expects the monthly indicator to record annual headline inflation of 2.1% in October, near the bottom of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%. Wu notes that other measures of inflation have shown
Nothing better sums up the divergence of economic fortunes between young and older Australians than this week’s analysis of spending habits by age from the CBA. The only chart that comes close is the following, showing the collapse in home ownership rates among younger age cohorts, while older age home ownership rates have remained stable.
Gnarwarre Sunset AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 100 US S&P 500 UK !00 Japan 225 Easy Listening
Kevin07 is back. Kevin Rudd has declared Australia ‘is ready’ to work closely with Donald Trump and his new administration to bolster an alliance which has never been more important or relevant. Australia’s ambassador in Washington said that in a world of ‘many challenges’ Australia welcomed an active and engaged United States in the Indo
The latest consumer price index (CPI) data for New Zealand showed that headline inflation had fallen to only 2.2% in the year ended Q3 2024, tracking within the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 1% to 3%. This would suggest that the Reserve Bank has slayed the inflation dragon. However, the latest Reserve Bank survey suggests
You know the lunatics are in charge of the asylum when Australia’s own National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is embroiled in corruption issues. When the Royal Commission on the Robodebt Scheme delivered its report, the commissioner in charge made great efforts to refer six individuals to the NACC for investigation. Many people were outraged, particularly the
The AEMO and other energy regulators are worried that Australia will suffer from severe gas shortages in the coming winter and every winter after that. They are behind the times. The East Coast gas cartel has delivered a permanent winter to Aussie energy prices. Whenever there is a price shock anywhere, including during northern hemisphere
Steven Blitz at TSLombard is excellent at times. If it were simply a matter of dealing with the economy as it is, the Fed’s choices would be simpler as well. One more cut to get the funds rate Taylor Rule neutral and then stop. The road to recession still runs through the asset side of
The latest ANZ/CoreLogic housing affordability report has revealed the “impossible” barriers facing Australian first-home buyers. The national dwelling value-to-rent ratio hit an equal record high of eight in the September quarter of 2024. At the same time, Australian mortgage rates have roughly doubled from the pandemic low. The combination of higher prices and mortgage rates
Trump blowoff is still the base case. But, jeez, this market is vulnerable to shocks. The Market Ear. Unstoppable force of Momentum The Momentum factor has been on a tear lately. Source: GS Most overbought since 2007 US 1M Momo has rallied 18% in a week, pushing the 14D RSI to the most overbought level
It’s machine-like trading around the US dollar at the moment. DXY up is dirt, mining, EM and junk negative. Down is the inverse. Today we are down. AUD up. North Asia doesn’t want a bar of it. Dirt is flying. Miners more muted. EM up. Junk is still melancholy. Even as bonds are bid. With
Westpac with the note. • Leading Index has moved into positive territory, from –0.20% in September to +0.26% in October. • This provides a tentative signal that growth momentum is set to improve from its current nadir. • Improvements mostly centred on components related to consumer sentiment and commodity prices. Hardly tearing it up.
Two charts tell the story of the bare-knuckled fight between the RBA and the Albanese government. In the blue corner is the RBA which won’t cut rates because trimmed mean inflation is too high at 3.5%. In the red corner is the Albanese government which has used energy rebates to lower headline inflation to 2.8%
The Coalition is under scrutiny for joining forces with the Greens to block legislation to cap new international student numbers from 2025. Education Minister Jason Clare says Opposition leader Peter Dutton has no credibility regarding immigration, given that he stated in his budget reply speech in May that a Coalition government would introduce a cap
