Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Like Australia, Canada experienced record net overseas migration (NOM) in the immediate post-pandemic period, increasing the population by 3 million (7.9%) in the three years after it reopened its international border in September 2021. Non-permanent residents (NPRs), meaning temporary migrants, grew by 1.8 million, from 1.36 million to a peak of 3.15 million, making up
Cotality’s daily dwelling values index has declined by 2.9% from its peak at the 5-city aggregate level, with all major capitals recording falls. As noted by CBA on Monday, “the housing market is under increasing pressure, with higher interest rates, tighter financing conditions, weak sentiment, and changes to housing tax policy all weighing on demand”.Â
TME kicks us off. The Market Needs Semis. Semis Aren’t Cooperating. The recent rally has relieved some of the technical damage, but it has yet to resolve the market’s biggest questions. With SPX nearing resistance, semiconductors struggling to lead, and options positioning shifting rapidly, the next move may require fresh catalysts. Still stuck SPX remains
In the lead-up to Victoria’s leadership spill, Ben Carroll stated repeatedly that he supported Premier Jacinta Allan. For example, on 15 June, Carroll told the press that he had a young daughter at home and he “couldn’t be more proud to make sure she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a
So say the SOI. In fact, we are now at twice-per-century levels. NOAA has confirmed the development of El Niño conditions and the potential for a very strong episode has increased to 81%. Evidence indicates this is one of the best occurrences since 1950. NOAA expects a greater probability of tail risks, but there is
Cotality has revised its dwelling value data for Perth downward, resulting in the city recording a meaningful decline. Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro illustrates the revision below: Following the revision, Perth’s daily dwelling values index has declined by 0.6% from its peak in mid-May. PropTrack’s monthly dwelling values index has also reported a 1.7% decline
Iron ore and steel keep on falling. The latest bad news was the Rating Dog PMI which fell to 50.9 in July from 51.7 in June. Among the major sub-indexes, the new order sub-index decreased the most, followed by the output sub-index. Both the NBS manufacturing PMI and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI fell in July,
Economist Chris Richardson is one of the nation’s best analysts on budget finances. Sadly, his expertise does not extend to the housing market, where, like many others, he fails economics 101 by only seeing the supply side and ignoring demand. Richardson told 7News’ The Issue Podcast that the only way to solve Australia’s housing shortage
DXY held up despite a coordinated intervention into JPY by Japan and the US. US and Japanese officials warned investors theyâre determined to keep defending the yen after their first joint intervention in 15 years. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly vowed that the US âwill not hesitateâ to wade back into the market, if needed,
The Dropsite wrap. President Donald Trump says U.S.-Iran talks will resume Monday; Tehran says no negotiations underway. Iran strikes Kuwait. NYT: U.S. dropped a 2,000-pound bomb on family in Qeshm. Iran says it is near agreement for Hormuz control. Saudi Crown Prince notes Saudi concern about strikes on call with Trump. Iran says several U.S.
Since the Albanese government came to power in May 2022 (starting with the June quarter of 2022 as a base), the size of the nation’s economy in per capita terms has contracted by 0.49%. In terms of GDP per working-age adult (civilians 15 and over), which better adjusts for the ongoing impact of demographic changes
The latest temporary visa data from the Department of Home Affairs showed that the number of bridging visas on issue hit a record high of 413,000 in the June quarter of 2026: The surge in bridging visas issued in Australia has been driven in part by former international students, who have clogged the Administrative Review
Following the post-pandemic boom, New Zealand has experienced one of the world’s largest house price crashes. According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), which is the lead index used by the Reserve Bank, New Zealand home prices have declined for more than 4.5 years after peaking in late 2021, down around 20%
Saul Eslake has taken the moment of Jacinta Allen’s fall to provide some useful advice to whoever inherits her mess. Eslake tackles Victoriaâs net government debt, which has ballooned under Labour, rising $143 billion since it came to power and forecast to hit almost $200 billion by 2029-30 â or about a quarter of the
Andrew Kemp posted a terrific set of 26 charts illustrating the decline of Australia’s economy, standard of living, and social cohesion. The charts on Australians’ mood stood out to me. First, more Australians than ever believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction: Second, nearly 60% believe that life has gotten worse over the
The bad news starts with China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI: 49.2 in July (GS forecast: 49.9; Bloomberg consensus: 50.1), vs. 50.3 in June. Official non-manufacturing PMI: 49.0 in July (GS forecast: 49.6; Bloomberg consensus: 50.0), vs. 50.2 in June. Neither steel nor iron ore reacted well. The latter is approaching technical lows. Support around $90
If you have ever wondered why some media outlets are overly supportive of the Albanese government’s agenda, it may have something to do with the government’s $74 million Journalism Assistance Fund (JAF), which subsidises the wages of more than 2,000 journalists at 185 media organisations. The JAF is a key part of the federal government’s
Just go away, Honest John. John Howard has declared that One Nationâs push for a monoculture is âpointlessâ, as the nationâs second longest-serving prime minister praised post-World War II migration as a resounding success and advocated for a conÂservative path for âAustralian multiculturalismâ. Mr Howard â the most prominent and effective critic for decades of
In July, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released an analysis showing how changes in the volume of net overseas migration (NOM) would impact the federal budget balance. The PBO claims that the federal budget balance would improve by around $80.6 billion over 11 years under the scenario of âHigherâ NOM (+40,000 migrants), while a scenario
How’s this for a bear market rally? TME has more. Korea’s Face-Ripper Just days ago, Korea looked like one of the most unloved AI markets in the world. Mechanical selling had washed through the system, positioning had been aggressively reset, and sentiment was deeply pessimistic. Then came one of the biggest squeezes in the index’s
It’s TACO Monday. Originally from the Trump-friendly Axios and reported by Bloomy: US President Donald Trump said he’s holding off from new strikes on Iran after Tehran and other Middle Eastern powers told him they’re working on an agreement that might quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump agreed to cancel the attack “subject to
In mid-August 2025, the Albanese government gathered together economists, business leaders and policymakers for its ‘Economic Reform Roundtable’. The focus of the gathering was jump-starting the nation’s dismal productivity growth, thereby improving the nation’s economic growth prospects. To put the state of productivity at the time into perspective, between December 2019 and the labour productivity
Cotality’s rental data for July confirmed that the market remains extremely tight. Rental affordability has also hit a fresh record low, with tenant households paying a record share of their incomes on rent. Advertised rents nationally grew by 0.4% in July, leaving the annual growth rate at a cyclically high 5.9% for the third consecutive
One or the other was not the issue. The system is the issue. In the end, the ability to reconcile the irreconcilable simply evaporated, and the certainty was gone. Trying to shove a square society into a round hole has its limits. Asserting speciousness begs questions that must ultimately be answered, and the expectation
With Australia’s housing market now in full correction mode, and values declining across all major capital city markets, vendors have responded by withdrawing their homes from the auction market. This week’s preliminary auction results from Cotality delivered an early clearance rate of 53.6% across the combined capital cities, the highest reading in three weeks, but
