Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Cripes, the hoi poloi are suffering. David Jones, Australia’s failed up-market department store, could re-emerge from voluntary administration with fewer stores in a second chance for private equity owner Anchorage Capital. Anchorage is compelled to try its luck with a reborn David Jones freed of massive lease liabilities because of the underlying profitability of some
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP), released on Tuesday, raised its forecast for the nation’s unemployment rate. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the RBA now expects the unemployment rate to rise from its current level of 4.6% (trend) to 5.1% by the end of 2028,
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, examines why investors can’t afford to ignore America’s 2026 midterm elections — and how the outcome could reshape the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. We explore what a shift in congressional control could mean for fiscal policy, government spending, tariffs, regulation and
Victorian infrastructure projects have been mired in rorts and corruption, which have helped push the state into severe debt and undermined faith in government and institutions. For example, across multiple inquiries, reports, and economic analyses, the CFMEU’s conduct on Victoria’s Big Build is consistently linked to higher construction costs, lower productivity, and systemic rorting that
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for September, which showed that approvals nationally were tracking at their highest level since July 2021, with 18,700 homes approved: Annual approvals were tracking at 208,300: Despite the upswing, dwelling approvals were still tracking 93,500 (17%) below the National Housing Accord’s target, which requires
TME leads us off. Extreme markets Extreme moves across the board. SPX futures are printing a massive hammer, semiconductor valuations have collapsed more than 40%, Korean memory stocks have been crushed and sentiment is approaching capitulation. Meanwhile, oil is suffering its worst four-day selloff since COVID, with systematic selling pressure mounting. The tension is building:
War headlines today: Republicans wiped out in midterms as Iran’s reverse regime change wins. Four ships burning in Hormuz. Chuck Schumer: “This war must end.” God bless America. Not only has it rejected the Madman, but it has done it so decisively that he can’t stir up violence. In fact, the MAGA movement itself appears
Australian dwelling values are days away from recording their largest decline in more than 40 years of records, according to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index. Across the five major capital city markets, values have declined by 8.5% from their 10 April 2026 peak, just a whisker below the peak decline of 8.6% between November 2017
As the full picture on the state of the upcoming U.S Congress and Senate continues to emerge, it is abundantly clear that the Midterm Elections were an absolute disaster for President Trump and the Republican Party. The polls were looking challenging for a long while prior to the election, but they were often dismissed as
Australia’s governments—both federal and state—continue to spend at emergency pandemic levels, even though the pandemic ended five years ago. And this excessive government spending is adding to aggregate demand and helping to drive inflation. Analysis by the Coalition shows that the federal budget bottom line over the medium term is far worse off than it
TME with wrap for tech wreck. From terrific to terrified Tech has gone from terrific to terrified in less than a month. Volatility is exploding, AI fragility is reaching historical extremes and hyperscaler cash flow is collapsing. Taiwan is cracking as the semiconductor selloff spreads, while India is emerging as the unexpected winner of the
Conditions in Australia’s rental market eased again in October, according to Cotality, with rental vacancy rates jumping to a five-year high of 2.4% across the combined capital cities and annual rental growth slowing to 5.2%: As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, rental vacancy rates have risen across all of the capital cities:
Several points in yesterday’s RBA decision suggest the central bank is done with this tightening cycle. The bank materially raised its unemployment outlook and kept its inflation forecast steady, though it expects inflation to come down a little more slowly. The vote was 6-3, a split decision for the first time in some time, and
The Australian’s Simon Benson has clearly been tapped on the shoulder by the business lobby and told to shill for mass immigration: Benson has parroted spurious research from the Australian Industry Group (AiG) claiming that cutting immigration would deprive the nation of highly skilled workers, harming productivity growth and the economy. The whole premise of
It’s pretty ugly set of charts for forex this morning. DXY is firm. AUD plunged with North Asia. The twins have not yet reversed. Metals are OK. The Pilbara killer is eating miners. EM stocks look ugly. As junk howls. Long bonds are bidly. Stocks bounced on oil relief but look shaky. The Aussie bond
War headlines today. More tankers bombed. Talks still far apart. Israel still deadlocked. Early winds for Dems in midterms. Here are Iran’s seven conditions. Ceasefire across the Middle East – end hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon and Gaza. Release frozen Iranian assets – return billions of dollars of Iranian funds held overseas. Lift oil
As the Albanese government continues to attempt to redirect responsibility for the current issue with inflation away from itself and on to other issues, the latest polling from Essential suggests these efforts are falling flat with voters. Overall, 65% of voters ranked “government spending too much” as one of their top three drivers responsible for
Tim Toohey of Yarra Capital Management argues that the Reserve Bank is misdiagnosing Australia’s inflation problem as primarily one of excess private-sector demand and, as a result, risks keeping monetary policy too tight for too long. Toohey’s central claim is that while there is indeed excess demand, inflationary pressures are increasingly coming from areas that
In the rates that stopped the nation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today raised the official cash rate (OCR) to an 18-year high of 4.85%. The decision was widely anticipated by economists and financial markets. However, there was some dissent within the RBA, with six board members voting for the hike and three against.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred inflation measure, trimmed mean inflation, rose from 3.6% to 3.7% in the September quarter, exceeding the RBA’s forecast of 3.5%. With trimmed mean inflation tracking well above the RBA’s target band of 2% to 3%, financial markets are pricing in an 80% probability that the official cash rate
Major banks CBA, NAB and HSBC have downgraded their outlooks for the Australian economy amid rising interest rates and inflation, along with falling housing prices and turnover. CBA forecasts another per capita recession: Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at CBA, has slashed the bank’s GDP growth forecast to just 1.0% in 2027, down from
Iron ore has been holding for a few days, but the free fall in HRC is a bad omen. My freight-adjusted CFR estimate is hovering around $83. Simandou is going berserk. In mid-October, it shipped a record 1.58mt in a single week. October itself is on track for about 5.5mt. My aggressive ramp-up forecast is
The recent federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax have sharply reduced investor credit growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September credit aggregates data reported monthly investor credit growth of only 0.24%, a sharp contraction from the recent peak of 0.96% in December 2025. Quarterly investor credit growth was only 1.0%,
War headlines today. Talks progressing. Iran and US both remove red lines. Israel election still uncertain. Brent and diesel cracks fell sharply. LNG fell as well. The latest oil shipment numbers have risen as Iranian attacks have fallen. Global inventories will keep pressure on prices in the medium term. That said, in the short, the market
Toward the start of each month, Cotality makes revisions to its housing price index, adjusting it for the developments not previously captured in its data. As the charts below of past revisions in relatively recent months indicate, when housing prices are falling significantly, the downward revisions can be sizable. In this, the latest revisions which
