Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
In May 2023, the Albanese government announced changes to Australia’s Working Holiday Maker (WHM) Program and the UK’s Youth Mobility Scheme under the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement (AUKFTA). The changes allow young Aussies to work in the UK unrestricted for three years and allow young Brits to work in Australia on a similar basis. Thus,
The latest opinion polls suggest that the Victorian Labor government faces a crushing defeat at this month’s state election on 28 November. The DemosAU/PremierNational poll shows Labor’s share of the primary vote has plummeted by seven points to just 18%, trailing the Coalition on 33% and One Nation on 21%. The Greens have almost drawn
Iron ore has had a few better days, tracking HRC. My freight-adjusted chart has improved a little. Late October CISA data was down 3% YOY. Pretty weak. MySteel was worse. Demand improved slightly but still sucks. Steel inventory is stable YOY. Real estate is still awful. There’s a little stimmy pulse. It’s pretty gloomy, but
The quality of policymaking and public service delivery has arguably worsened across Australia, despite the growth in public sector employment at both the federal and state levels. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released data on the public sector showing that the total number of public sector jobs rose by 2.3% between June 2025
TME on what my long-awaited Madman flush has delivered so far. The great positioning flush The week’s market turmoil triggered one of the sharpest positioning resets in years, with hedge funds aggressively cutting exposure and broader equity positioning turning underweight. Here are the charts showing the scale of the unwind — and how far positioning
A month ago, I reported on the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water’s Australian Energy Update 2026. The data showed that energy consumption by the manufacturing sector shrank by 2.5% annually over the past decade: The decline in energy use in the manufacturing sector has been broad-based across its sub-sectors: Last week, the Australian
DXY got a lift from better jobs. AUD had its face pressed into the turf. The short is still huge. Expect a quick snap back the moment things stabilise. Big oil relief. Nothing like a socialist to support gold. Metals alert but not alarmed. Big miners are rock solid in the circumstances. EM puke. But
War headlines today: US expands land blockade US bombs Queshm Island air defences again Eleven tankers hit last week Eisenkot gets 28 days to try to form Israeli coalition government Brent and cracks eased. LNG was pounded in Europe. Some charts today illustrate that even with a better outlook for peace, the oil market has
In a recent interview with the Sydney Morning Herald, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese made what they characterised as a “sharp comment” against the RBA. “Interest rates are a blunt instrument,” “They have an impact on people who have mortgages.” Albanese said. The Prime Minister is correct; interest rates are a blunt instrument in both directions.
Last week, the RBA hiked interest rates for the fifth time this year, taking the official cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85%. The increase was another brutal blow for Australian mortgage holders, who were already facing the highest mortgage rates in the advanced world before the back-to-back 25 bp hikes delivered by the
Australia’s total fertility rate recorded a tiny bump up after a decade of decline. That’s what the experts will tell you, and technically they’re right. But they have little idea what they’re talking about. Like many statistics, the fertility rate has been overwhelmed by temporary immigration. The total fertility rate is the fertility of all
The election has eased one source of uncertainty for investors. The harder question is how long the profits supporting the AI boom can last. The biggest investment consequence of the US midterms may be the risk that has come off the table. Going into the election, my concern was a close result followed by prolonged
International Reading: Trump ignored Americans’ real pain. Now he’s paid the price – Independent Nasdaq plunges into correction territory as midterm results raise fresh questions about AI boom – CNN Elon Musk Lit Half A Billion Dollars On Fire In Texas Last Night – Huff Post GTA 6 Release Day Set To Cost America $1
In September, we learned that the secretaries’ board, which includes all federal department heads, was pushing for new rules to stop sharing public testimony on social media because it could expose officials to ridicule, hostility, or abuse. The board’s request appeared to be in response to the recent actions of Celia Perkins, Deputy Secretary of
Shortly after the end of each month Cotality releases their revised house price index data, revealing how much the market has improved or worsened after previous data was adjusted for lagged inputs. This month again saw prices revised down significantly, continuing a trend that has now continued for months and potentially set to persist for
Australian real per capita GDP declined by 0.5% over the first four years of the Albanese government – i.e., between Q2 2022 and Q2 2026. As a result, Australia is experiencing its slowest growth in living standards since World War I, with GDP per capita up only around 4% so far this decade – the weakest decade
Last week, we learned that Snowy Hydro 2.0 is estimated to now cost between $22 and $25 billion, more than 10 times the initial estimate, and won’t be delivered until 2029. Professor Bruce Mountain is a prominent figure in energy economics and serves as the inaugural Director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre at Victoria University.
Australian dwelling values are days away from recording their largest decline in more than 40 years of records, according to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index. Across the five major capital city markets, values have declined by 8.5% from their 10 April 2026 peak, just a whisker below the peak decline of 8.6% between November 2017
Cripes, the hoi poloi are suffering. David Jones, Australia’s failed up-market department store, could re-emerge from voluntary administration with fewer stores in a second chance for private equity owner Anchorage Capital. Anchorage is compelled to try its luck with a reborn David Jones freed of massive lease liabilities because of the underlying profitability of some
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) November Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP), released on Tuesday, raised its forecast for the nation’s unemployment rate. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the RBA now expects the unemployment rate to rise from its current level of 4.6% (trend) to 5.1% by the end of 2028,
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, examines why investors can’t afford to ignore America’s 2026 midterm elections — and how the outcome could reshape the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency. We explore what a shift in congressional control could mean for fiscal policy, government spending, tariffs, regulation and
Victorian infrastructure projects have been mired in rorts and corruption, which have helped push the state into severe debt and undermined faith in government and institutions. For example, across multiple inquiries, reports, and economic analyses, the CFMEU’s conduct on Victoria’s Big Build is consistently linked to higher construction costs, lower productivity, and systemic rorting that
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for September, which showed that approvals nationally were tracking at their highest level since July 2021, with 18,700 homes approved: Annual approvals were tracking at 208,300: Despite the upswing, dwelling approvals were still tracking 93,500 (17%) below the National Housing Accord’s target, which requires
TME leads us off. Extreme markets Extreme moves across the board. SPX futures are printing a massive hammer, semiconductor valuations have collapsed more than 40%, Korean memory stocks have been crushed and sentiment is approaching capitulation. Meanwhile, oil is suffering its worst four-day selloff since COVID, with systematic selling pressure mounting. The tension is building:
War headlines today: Republicans wiped out in midterms as Iran’s reverse regime change wins. Four ships burning in Hormuz. Chuck Schumer: “This war must end.” God bless America. Not only has it rejected the Madman, but it has done it so decisively that he can’t stir up violence. In fact, the MAGA movement itself appears
