Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
How fast are various forms of energy built? Here are AEMO estimates. Technology Typical Australian time to operation How quickly capacity can scale Grid-scale solar 2–4 years 🟢 Very fast Battery 2–4 years 🟢 Very fast Gas peaker 2–4 years 🟢 Fast Onshore wind 3–5+ years 🟡 Moderate CCGT gas 4–6 years 🟡 Moderate Coal
I have warned repeatedly that Australia’s energy policy is on a collision course with physics and reality. The reasons are simple. Like it or not, coal is the backbone of Australia’s electricity grid, accounting for 58% of NEM generation over the past three months: According to the latest version of AEMO’s flagship report, the 2026
I reported last week on claims by NAB’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, and SQM Research managing director, Louis Christopher, that residential rents could soar by 15–30% over the next two years due to the federal budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT). “In our view, the changes to the tax
The federal government is expected to set new rules for energy use by AI data centres at Wednesday’s national cabinet meeting. However, Queensland Premier David Crisafulli is expected to reject the Albanese government’s bid to require that data centres use renewable electricity. The Australian reports that Crisafulli will instead pitch an alternative framework to the national
No worries, says the Flash PMI. Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index: 52.5 (Jul: Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m % qr/qr 53.2) Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index: 52.9 (Jul: 53.6) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 52.0 (Jul: 52.0) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 49.7 (Jul: 50.3) According S&P, business activity in Australia’s
The business lobby and former Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson have pushed back against suggestions that Australia should cut immigration, arguing that maintaining a strong migration program is essential to solving labour shortages and mitigating population ageing. Dr Cameron Murray’s latest research has comprehensively debunked the notion that an ageing population threatens the economy and living
God almighty. Australia’s only hope of reducing immigration is the ‘racist’ party of Pauline Hanson, but now it’s fiddling the numbers. One Nation MP David Farley has revealed net overseas migration (NOM) would be about 230,000 a year under One Nation, or 5000 people higher than forecast in the federal budget. Farley, who was elected
War headlines today. A draft bill that would require ships from nations allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz to pay for services rendered by Iran. Any state that joins US sanctions on Iran would be viewed as an adversary, according to Iran’s security head Mohsen Rezaei, and Tehran will attack its interests in return.
Across the nation, the scope and breadth of housing price falls continue to expand, increasingly prompting forecasts of multi-decade record-high falls in housing prices. The largest falls among the five major capitals so far this cycle have been in Sydney, where prices are down 6.4% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum,
The outlook for Australia’s housing market continues to darken. The weekend’s auction results disappointed again, with the national capital city preliminary clearance rate falling to 53.2%, down from 56.5% the prior weekend, before being downgraded to 48.9% on final figures. On the same weekend last year, 70.0% of auctions sold based on preliminary results. Volumes
TME kicks us off with a market that just doesn’t care. Momentum refuses to die Memory remains squeezed, BTC has gone from below its 200-day to historically overbought in a matter of sessions, and gold is turning parabolic as flows chase the move higher. Meanwhile, fund managers are back overweight US equities with cash near
A transition to retirement pension (sometimes referred to as TTR) allows you to transfer part of your superannuation funds into a transition to retirement account and draw a tax-free income if you are over 60 and under 65. Pro-Tip: This is not for everyone! If you are short on cash, it is useful. If you
The weekend of 8-9 August suggested the nation’s housing market might be stabilising after the national auction clearance rate hit a 12-week high of 51.4%, following 10 consecutive weeks in the 40s. Auctioneers and agents hoped we had hit the bottom and that price declines would soon stabilise. Alas, the hopes were short-lived, with Cotality
When I think about El Niño, the first thing that comes to mind is usually weather: droughts, floods, bushfires and storms. But for investors, I think the more important question is what happens after the weather changes. A super El Niño does not automatically mean a market crash, nor does it guarantee that every commodity
This week’s must-watch videos: The truth about data centres: The truth about the energy transition: International Reading: We Did It! $40T in Debt! – CNBC US Public Debt Hits $40 Trillion, Raising ‘Doom Loop’ Risk – Yahoo Teenagers are shooting out over 50 applications and getting ghosted even for volunteer jobs: ‘I’ll take anything at
Data from the Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) shows that the nation’s total debt totalled $983.7 billion as of last Friday. This was set to rise above $1 trillion for the first time on Thursday due to two new debt issuances worth $13 billion and $4 billion, respectively. However, total debt will fall below
The VIC opposition LNP, which is odds-on to take government, has promised substantial changes to the VIC energy outlook. Its central concern is the looming June 2028 closure of the Yallourn power station. The AEMO has warned that Victoria could face “low reserve conditions” from July 2028, with demand potentially exceeding available supply under some
The Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) was meant to accelerate wind, solar and battery investment by using taxpayer subsidies to underwrite revenue. Instead, only 14 of 89 supported projects have reached final investment decision (FID), and only one wind project has begun construction. Investors have also warned that more than half of early‑round winners might never
Yesterday, I noted new Goldman research showing that Australia is leading the globe in throwing its youth under the AI job-displacement bus. Yesterday’s labour force release confirms this trend at the top level and provides some additional insight. That youth job prospects are dimming fast is not in doubt, as the employment-to-population ratio has declined
In late 2020, the former Coalition government received the findings of the review into Australian retirement incomes, which explicitly recommended against lifting the compulsory superannuation rate to 12% because it could disadvantage low-income earners and reduce workers’ lifetime incomes: “A rate of compulsory superannuation that would result in people having an increase in their living
DXY is sagging. AUD is enjoying China’s magic carpet ride. Scott Bessent has not fixed Japan. The twins of doom are now moving in tandem. AI metals appear concerned. Not so miners. This is a big short for mine (pardon the pun). If growth worries build, copper will crash. RIO breaking out is ludicrous. EM
War headlines today: Trump’s announces an unprecedented “crushing economic operation” of more sanctions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Washington would only suffer more setbacks as a result of the “so-called ‘Economic D-Day’. China slammed the sanctions (and will presumably ignore them). Houthis claim new strikes on Saudi targets at Najran airport and Aramco
As price falls spread to a larger and larger share of Australia’s housing markets, commentary continues that the nation could see the largest housing price falls on record. Perhaps one of the most notable sources of housing price data comes from Cotality, which has analysed housing price data going back well over 40 years. And
Australians have been subjected to a long, grinding income recession. The latest OECD data showed that Australia experienced the softest real per capita household disposable income growth in the 11 years to the March 2026 quarter among English-speaking nations tracked by the OECD. Australia’s 6.0% growth in real per capita household disposable income over 11
New Zealand citizens can work and live in Australia indefinitely as temporary migrants under the Special Category Visa (SCV). Under changes made by the Albanese government, from 1 July 2023, New Zealand citizens no longer needed to secure permanent residence before becoming Australian citizens. As a result, other nationalities now fill those places, effectively increasing
