Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday released monthly overseas arrivals and departures data for December, which continued to show strong growth in the number of people arriving and intending to stay in Australia for 12 months or more. In 2026, a net of 480,520 people arrived in Australia on a permanent or long-term
Charts from TME. Tech is in a spot of bother. Tech volatility is trending the wrong way. What is the problem? AI capex is insane. The market is now caught between concerns about the ROI of these hyperscalers and the impact that such capacity will have on all industries that can deploy AI apps. VIX
The Albanese government last year dumped its controversial proposal to tax unrealised gains on superannuation balances above $3 million without indexation. On Wednesday, Treasurer Jim Chalmers introduced legislation in the House of Representatives to amend Division 296 and impose additional taxes on superannuation balances over $3 million, with thresholds indexed to inflation. If passed by the
A number of prominent Chinese economists have argued in favor of loosening restrictions on the movement of money into and out of the country. They argue that a weakening dollar presents a special opportunity to raise the value of the yuan abroad. According to Miao Yanliang and Ju Jiandong, this year and next represent a
I reported on Thursday on the record lift in mortgage commitments for first home buyers in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by the Albanese government’s expanded 5% deposit scheme, which came into effect on October 1, 2025. The December quarter of 2025 saw $19.310 billion in lending to first home buyers, an increase of
DXY stopped falling last night, possibly as Trump withdrew ICE from Minneapolis. The AUD strongman refused to fall as much as broader risk supported by North Asia. I do not think that Beijing will allow the CNY upside acceleration for very long. Gold and oil fell after the American madman suggested Iran talks should continue.
An angry Michelle Bullock won’t hear a bad word about the Australian economy. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has fired back at Nationals senator Matt Canavan after he accused her of “gaslighting” Australians over the state of the Australian economy. Ms Bullock has also rejected repeated efforts by the federal opposition to pin the blame
Following the reopening of international borders after the conclusion of the Covid-19 pandemic, Canada experienced a record surge in immigration alongside a corresponding rise in rents. The following chart from the National Bank of Canada from February 2024 illustrates the situation at the time, with both population growth and rents exploding: Temporary residents drove Canada’s
Charts from TME. Tech continues to range trade, reminiscent of 2024/25 when it ultimately fell out of bed. Tech volatility continues to trend higher as well One possible threat to tech is oil, which is pushing the upper limits of its downtrend. If it were to break out and put pressure on long-end yields, tech
The Albanese government’s expanded 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers came into effect on October 1, 2025. The First Home Buyer Guarantee program enables eligible buyers to purchase a home with a 5% deposit, with the federal government guaranteeing the remaining 15%. This means buyers avoid paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI), save $10,000–$30,000 depending
AGL Energy is the latest to warn that Albo’s gas dog’s breafast is delaying critical investment needed to prevent supply shortfalls later this decade. Chief executive Damien Nicks said the absence of detail about how the scheme would operate was already affecting contracting and capital decisions, cautioning that ambiguity risked chilling new supply. The federal
In this week’s podcast, MB Fund’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, unpacks how AI is rapidly devouring the software sector — examining why AI leaders are absorbing ever-larger slices of market cap, what’s driving the widening performance gap, and what this power shift means for investors positioned in traditional software stocks. Download presentation slides here
Data centres contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, primarily through electricity consumption, and their impact is growing as demand for digital services increases. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), data centres are responsible for approximately 1-1.5% of global electricity use, which translates to around 330 million tons of CO2 equivalent emissions annually. This figure
When your leadership challenge turns into a joke before it even starts, it’s not a good look. Crikey. I rarely agree with Crikey these days, but Bernard Keane is right about this. Is Angus Taylor carrying out the single worst major party leadership challenge in Australian political history? …The stuttering, bumbling, on-again-off-again nature of Taylor’s
Australians have a resolute belief in the property market. The discount variable mortgage rate has soared from a low of 2.4% in April 2022 to a peak of 6.25% between November 2023 and January 2025 before falling to 5.5% following last year’s three 0.25% rate cuts from the RBA. Despite the surge in mortgage rates,
It is almost certain that the Albanese government will make changes to the capital gains tax (CGT) discount in the upcoming May federal budget. The fact that senior Labor MPs have not ruled out changes in recent interviews suggests that changes to the CGT discount are afoot, backed by a broad coalition of supporters. The
In reality, the housing bubble has been eating into all levels of government budgets for many years. Stamp duty is a revenue component that has increased structurally over time. AHURI estimates that Australian governments have spent a total of $20.5 billion on first-home-buyer schemes of various kinds from 2012-2021. I’m guessing it is more than
DXY was firm overnight after a reasonable jobs report. AUD had another tearaway night. This story was not about US jobs, which should have capped it. It was about a rocketing JPY post-election and CNY still on the up. Oil and gold are both chasing Iran. AI metals were mixed. Big mining parabolas have never
In August last year, Health Minister Mark Butler set a target to reduce NDIS spending growth from its current annual rate of 8% to 5-6%. According to estimates from the e61 Institute, this 5-6% growth figure is roughly consistent with the cost pressures on the NDIS from inflation, population growth, and population aging. While there
Announcing targets is easy. Delivering on them is the hard part. Two years ago, the Albanese government, alongside the states, announced the National Housing Accord, which set a target of building 1.2 million homes over five years from 1 July 2024, equating to 240,000 housing completions annually. This target was always overly ambitious, given that
Caitlin Fitzsimmons, the environment and climate reporter for The Sydney Morning Herald, has written an article challenging the common belief that younger Australians are being locked out of home ownership. While it’s true that people in their 20s are buying later than previous generations, Fitzsimmons points to Census data compiled by the Australian Institute of
Back in 2022, one week after Albo was elected, I rang the gloriously handsome Andrew “Lord” Charlton and briefed him on the incoming gas catastrophe his government faced. Those words fell into oblivion, never to be heard again, and perhaps today we can understand why. The square-jawed man of the people had his sights set
Charts from TME. Skew is a measure of how much investors are worried about the downside versus excited about the upside. Rising skew is bearish. It is rising. The IGV index tracks software stocks. Looks like we’re into a shjort squeeze here. Possibly a bottom. The software selling sure looks like capitulation. Thr shorts are
Australia’s federal budget uses two main deficit measures, and they differ because they treat certain transactions differently—especially asset sales, loans, and off‑budget funds. The headline balance captures all cash flows in and out of the Commonwealth government, including: day‑to‑day spending tax revenue capital spending asset purchases and sales loans issued and repaid equity injections transactions
As usual, this is all sound and fury signifying nothing. Grace Tame has stolen the limelight from the very cause she espouses. She is now on the defensive. “I’m not the story…The story is that Israel stands accused by the International Criminal Court of committing genocide in Gaza, and so far”… “This should terrify us
