Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
By Steve Saunders The Courtās decision on the Mt Pleasant NSW coal-mine extension will only amplify Labor-Green determination to plug ahead with net-zero, punishing Australians for climate guilt. The judges were hemmed in by NSW climate laws, replicated in other states, and amplified at the federal level. They were between a coal-rock and a renewables
International Reading: Suddenly, Wall Street is worried that the U.S. economy is more āvulnerableā than it looks – Fortune Inflation Numbers Show Just How Badly Trump Wrecked the Economy – Rolling Stone Wholesale prices jumped 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022 – CNBC Inflation Report Shows Real Wages Are Falling For Workers –
Thursday’s labour force shocker from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which saw the nation’s unemployment rate rise to a five-year high of 4.7% (4.6% in trend terms), has tempered the financial market’s expectations for another interest rate hike. The unemployment rate is now tracking well above what the Reserve Bank had forecast in its
Honestly, if you have the dough, you could successfully argue the moon is made of poop in the Aussie political economy. Labor has failed to win over the Coalition and energy producers after unveiling legislation for its controversial gas reservation scheme, leaving the programās Āfuture in doubt as the government pledges to deliver a āsufficient
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on 2 September ā its second increase in two months. The decision appears to have further dented confidence in the housing market, with New Zealand home prices continuing to fall 1.5% year-on-year, according to the Real Estate Institute
As is often the case, the cyclical downturn hits jobless youth hardest. Unemployment for kids is fast approaching the lowflation period. There are reasons to think the RBA will overshoot here. The loosening of youth employment is not just a cyclical story. AI is playing a role in crimping entry-level jobs. AITAI offers an interesting
In June, the World of Statistics tweeted that “India leads the world as the top remittance recipient country and is the only country in human history to ever exceed $100 billion in annual remittances”. New migrant remittance data from the World Bank shows that in 2025, India was a net recipient of US$138.6 billion in
DXY copped it last night. The AUD was hit even harder after the jobs shocker. The twins backed away. Metals are developing a growth worry. Big miners are closer to growth panic. EM flirted with doom. But was aided by junk as DXY plunged. The long bond was bid too. Stocks clung to the cliff.
War headlines today. Another tanker on fire in Sea of Oman. Trump mulls more bombing, but not before the midterms. Missiles everywhere in Yemen, Saudi. Dated Brent has eased a little. Diesel cracks eased slightly. But Gulf oil exports have fallen 40% since the Iranian rebombing began. US prices are still nasty. So it Polymarket
With the release of the latest auction clearance rate data from SQM Research, it was revealed that Sydney’s auction clearance rate had fallen to the lowest levels since their records began in February 2020 (excluding public holidays and the Christmas season) Of all the various providers of auction clearance rate data, SQM’s is the gold
Australia’s property market is facing its biggest price correction in more than 40 years, with values down by 7.1% across the five major markets since early April, according to Cotality. At the current pace of decline, the housing market should break the record by early December. The housing market outlook remains dire, with for-sale listings
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the September labour force survey, and it was a shocker. The headline unemployment rate climbed another 0.1% to 4.7% ā the highest reading since October 2021 ā while all of the sub-indicators were soft. The following table from the ABS summarises the key components from the survey: Total
In this weekās podcast, Nucleus Wealthās Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, is joined by Cameron Murray of Fresh Economic Thinking to challenge one of the biggest assumptions about Australiaās ageing population ā that more retirees inevitably mean fewer workers supporting more dependants. We unpack why traditional age-based dependency ratios no longer reflect how people live
The guy can’t walk a straight line on immigration, for the love of god. Our opposition to immigration is primordial ā deeply instinctive. But we mustnāt let it blind us to the benefits immigration brings. Donāt forget that, without immigration, our low natural increase (births minus deaths) thanks to a fertility rate (number of kids
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest board monetary policy meeting minutes, released publicly on Tuesday, largely dashed hopes that interest rates might begin to fall early next year. At the meeting, the RBA raised the official cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.60%. The minutes were decisively more hawkish than Governor Bullock’s unscripted
Iron ore futures are grinding relentlessly lower. My latest freight-adjusted CFR figure is just above $82. The Pilbara’s marginal iron ore players are getting whacked. FMG is right at major monthly long-term support. MIN also had bad news on lithium yesterday. Maybe a late-year seasonal rally is coming, but if it happens, that’ll be a
Sydney is nearing a double-digit housing price decline, with Cotality’s daily dwelling values index recording a 9.3% fall since the market peak on 19 March: The trend in value growth has also turned down, with values declining by 1.4% over the past 28 days: Louis Christopher, founder and managing director of SQM Research, says Sydney’s
DXY has the bid. AUD is chopping wood after the fall. Risk is lower. The twins of doom are approaching the hell cross. Metals are not exactly euphoric. Big miners appear to be in trouble. Peripheral equity is letting go. Junk is breaking again. This time with the long-end bid. Hello growth shock! Stocks and
War headlines today. Two ships sink in Hormuz as attacks continue by mine and missile. IRGC claims it attacks 5-6 ships per night. Ukraine bombs two more refineries. Brent held overnight, but it has a bullish ascending triangle as it fills the big gap up. Diesel hope is extinguished. Hormuz attack cadence is unmistakable. According
As the battle surrounding the right level of migration into Australia continues to be waged from the halls of power in Canberra to the digital battlegrounds of cyberspace, the example of Canada is often cited as proof that dramatically lower migration can be pursued and does not need to result in significant economic downside, at
The Australian labour market is characterised by an exploitable class of temporary migrants, a situation that is generally thought to be undesirable. A 2016 Senate Education and Employment References Committee report documented systemic abuses in Australia’s visa system for foreign workers. In 2017, the Fair Work Ombudsman revealed that foreign workers were involved in more
A new Redbridge/Accent Research poll suggests the Victorian Coalition is increasingly well placed to win government at the November election, with support consolidating around Liberal leader Jess Wilson and Labor still struggling to recover from years of voter dissatisfaction. While a hung parliament remains possible, the pollsters believe a Coalition majority government is becoming more
The great gas schmozzle continues. The government has sought to balance domestic gas supply pressures with the interests of Australiaās multibillion-dollar gas industry and the nationās major overseas trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and China, which are major consumers of locally produced LNG. Following consultations in Australia and overseas, the government has agreed
Brisbane is now in the midst of a deep house price correction. Brisbane home values have declined by 5.7%, with the 28-day run rate tracking at -1.2%: Brisbane’s auction clearance rate is also the weakest among the three largest capital cities, tracking below 40% for 19 consecutive weeks: Meanwhile, old listings keep piling up. As
TME with stocks today. The daily market pulse The cracks in the tech trade are getting harder to ignore. Deutsche Bank warns that tech’s relative risk/reward is becoming increasingly asymmetric, while the memory meltdown is spreading into Nasdaq positioning. Korea is flashing even more serious warning signs, with KOSPI breaking key technical levels and volatility
