Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Two months ago, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released its 2026-27 National Fiscal Outlook, which forecast that net debt would continue to rise in the coming years: The PBO also forecast that the share of government revenue spent on interest costs would rise steadily from around 4.1% in 2024‑25 to 6.2% by 2029‑30, “reflecting the combined
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, examines whether CoreWeave could be the canary in the coal mine for the AI boom — as mounting debt, soaring borrowing costs, and questions over future returns put pressure on one of the industry’s key infrastructure providers. We unpack what its troubles reveal about
This is bloody awful. Federal MPs have been advised to vary their daily travel patterns, including the route they take to work, as one of a series of precautions re-emphasised during a rolling set of security briefings on Wednesday. The briefings occurred as Phil Haines, the husband of Helen Haines, announced his wife of 40
The Melbourne Assembly, hosted by The Age and the University of Melbourne, is underway, and “world-leading urbanist” Professor Carlos Moreno reportedly told the Assembly that “the concept of a 15-minute city was “absolutely possible” for Melbourne, as it hurtles towards a population of 9 million people by 2050”. “Moreno, who pioneered the idea of a
TME with the charts. Sell low, buy high Despite all the AI crash narratives, NDX remains trapped in the same range that has been in place since May. Chasing momentum at range extremes, in either direction, continues to punish traders. The agony of selling the lows and buying the highs lives on. Source: LSEG Workspace
The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) has released temporary visa data for the September quarter of 2026, which suggests that net overseas migration (NOM) into Australia continues to moderate. There were 2.57 million temporary visas on issue (excluding visitors and crew), the highest level on record for a September quarter: The following chart plots the
DXY is chopping wood as it clears an overbought condition. I don’t think this is a reversal. AUD has rebounded from its oversold position. It still has CNY support. The twins are crossing. Not a good sign. Metals are still OK about growth. Miners are not. Nor EM stocks. As junk looks very nervous. Long
War headlines today: Iran bombs more tankers. Houthis bomb more Saudi refineries. US pulls diplomats from region. Russia cosies up to Trump. Dated Brent is climbing again. Brent futures and cracks were roughly unchanged. Iran’s oil on water has run out. Creating buying pressure from China. Freight rates remain supportive of high crude and product
Amid an already challenging environment for the nation’s housing market, the latest figures from Cotality suggest prospective sellers face ever greater competition to sell, even as fewer owners put their properties on the market. According to Cotality data, total listings nationally reached 145,570 in mid-October, up 19.1% from this time last year. This increase occurred
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gave an interview at Citi’s Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney on Wednesday. Hauser warned that Australia’s “inflation outlook looks materially worse than we projected in the August report”, that “inflation has been high for a very long time now”, and that “people in
TME has the setup for equities. Something has to give Nasdaq is approaching a critical crossroads. Tech is dramatically underperforming small caps, credit stress is finally catching up with equities, and volatility has surged. Yet futures positioning remains stubbornly elevated, bearish hedges are quickly unwound, and NDX continues to hold its broader trading range. With
When former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull first announced the Snowy Hydro 2.0 pumped hydro project in 2017, it was billed as a $2 billion project capable of producing 2 megawatts of power on demand and 350,000 megawatt-hours of storage by 2021. Snowy Hydro 2.0 has been delayed several times since its announcement. The last
The gas cartel is busy distracting you with complete garbage. Labor needs to answer how its gas reservation scheme will work in times when gas is abundant, Origin Energy chief executive Frank Calabria has warned, or risk killing off incentives for future supply. Labor has proposed the biggest intervention in Australia’s gas industry in decades,
Two reports suggest Australia’s residential construction market is weakening significantly amid falling prices, rising interest rates, and the federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. Stockland, the country’s largest listed residential developer, reported its lowest level of housing inquiries in at least seven years. Higher interest rates, worsening affordability, rising construction costs
Four interest rate hikes this year have placed Australians under severe mortgage stress. Roy Morgan’s mortgage stress survey suggests the risk of mortgage stress nationally is at its highest level since early 2008, when the cash rate was above 7%. The percentage of household income spent on mortgage payments is also tracking at its highest
The latest iron ore data has stabilised. As shipping costs fall, the real CFR price has been rising. We are back to around $86. With steel prices holding steady, the recent falls in iron ore are clearly driven by supply. The latest data from Guinea shows a face-ripping week for Simandou loadings. The Pilbara killer
Latest war headlines. Two tankers ablaze in Hormuz, says Iran. Not so, says the US. Talks progress, say US allies. Not so, says Iran. White House: No attack before midterms but third carrier arrives. Ukraine attacks Nikolskoye oil pumping and dispatch station. Dated Brent rose slightly. Brent futures eased. Diesel was firm. LNG eased. The
Last week, in an interview with News 24, Home Affairs and Immigration Minister Tony Burke refused to concede the Albanese government had made a mistake by allowing net overseas migration to surge following the reopening of Australia’s international borders. Burke stated that it was “disingenuous” to judge past immigration decisions with the benefit of hindsight.
CBA chief economist Luke Yeaman has written a report warning that Australia is approaching the most difficult phase of the inflation battle. CBA’s base case remains that slowing growth, falling house prices and rising unemployment will eventually bring inflation down and allow the RBA to pause. However, unlike earlier in the year, the bank now
A few months ago, Perth looked like the nation’s last remaining housing stronghold, with values holding firm while they crumbled across the rest of Australia. However, revisions from Cotality, combined with deteriorating conditions, now show Perth leading the nation’s house price bust. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, Perth’s seasonally adjusted monthly
TME on the market setup. The shock Friday’s explosion in VIX and VVIX was nothing short of extreme. The price action had all the hallmarks of forced deleveraging, with risk managers hitting the brakes and traders scrambling for tail protection at virtually any price. This was panic hedging, not ordinary volatility buying. Source: LSEG Workspace
The Grattan Institute argues that Australia’s GST system is no longer delivering the stable revenue base it was designed to provide for state governments. With state debt rising rapidly and GST revenues declining as a share of the economy, Grattan proposes a major tax reform package: increasing the GST from 10% to 15%, extending it
Not really. The great buildout is over, so its impact on commodities has faded. And it never added much to net global demand in anything else because the entire thing is based around exports. To the extent that it does matter, growth in industrial production (IP) increased from 5.2% yoy in August to 5.5% yoy
The Victorian government’s financial report for 2025-26, released last week, shows that the state’s net debt rose to $160.7 billion during the financial year. Operating expenses rose $8 billion from the previous fiscal year to $112 billion, and $891 million above the budget forecast, driven mainly by rising wage costs. The state’s net debt is
Some might say it is a Harbour Bridge-like project, visionary in its scale, and that it will remain in use far into the future. Others are saying it is a new ghost airport. Western Sydney International, a new A$5.6 billion airport, will handle its first passenger flight on Sunday, but its commercial prospects are in
