Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Australia’s governments—both federal and state—continue to spend at emergency pandemic levels, even though the pandemic ended five years ago. And this excessive government spending is adding to aggregate demand and helping to drive inflation. Analysis by the Coalition shows that the federal budget bottom line over the medium term is far worse off than it
TME with wrap for tech wreck. From terrific to terrified Tech has gone from terrific to terrified in less than a month. Volatility is exploding, AI fragility is reaching historical extremes and hyperscaler cash flow is collapsing. Taiwan is cracking as the semiconductor selloff spreads, while India is emerging as the unexpected winner of the
Conditions in Australia’s rental market eased again in October, according to Cotality, with rental vacancy rates jumping to a five-year high of 2.4% across the combined capital cities and annual rental growth slowing to 5.2%: As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, rental vacancy rates have risen across all of the capital cities:
Several points in yesterday’s RBA decision suggest the central bank is done with this tightening cycle. The bank materially raised its unemployment outlook and kept its inflation forecast steady, though it expects inflation to come down a little more slowly. The vote was 6-3, a split decision for the first time in some time, and
The Australian’s Simon Benson has clearly been tapped on the shoulder by the business lobby and told to shill for mass immigration: Benson has parroted spurious research from the Australian Industry Group (AiG) claiming that cutting immigration would deprive the nation of highly skilled workers, harming productivity growth and the economy. The whole premise of
It’s pretty ugly set of charts for forex this morning. DXY is firm. AUD plunged with North Asia. The twins have not yet reversed. Metals are OK. The Pilbara killer is eating miners. EM stocks look ugly. As junk howls. Long bonds are bidly. Stocks bounced on oil relief but look shaky. The Aussie bond
War headlines today. More tankers bombed. Talks still far apart. Israel still deadlocked. Early winds for Dems in midterms. Here are Iran’s seven conditions. Ceasefire across the Middle East – end hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon and Gaza. Release frozen Iranian assets – return billions of dollars of Iranian funds held overseas. Lift oil
As the Albanese government continues to attempt to redirect responsibility for the current issue with inflation away from itself and on to other issues, the latest polling from Essential suggests these efforts are falling flat with voters. Overall, 65% of voters ranked “government spending too much” as one of their top three drivers responsible for
Tim Toohey of Yarra Capital Management argues that the Reserve Bank is misdiagnosing Australia’s inflation problem as primarily one of excess private-sector demand and, as a result, risks keeping monetary policy too tight for too long. Toohey’s central claim is that while there is indeed excess demand, inflationary pressures are increasingly coming from areas that
In the rates that stopped the nation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today raised the official cash rate (OCR) to an 18-year high of 4.85%. The decision was widely anticipated by economists and financial markets. However, there was some dissent within the RBA, with six board members voting for the hike and three against.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred inflation measure, trimmed mean inflation, rose from 3.6% to 3.7% in the September quarter, exceeding the RBA’s forecast of 3.5%. With trimmed mean inflation tracking well above the RBA’s target band of 2% to 3%, financial markets are pricing in an 80% probability that the official cash rate
Major banks CBA, NAB and HSBC have downgraded their outlooks for the Australian economy amid rising interest rates and inflation, along with falling housing prices and turnover. CBA forecasts another per capita recession: Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at CBA, has slashed the bank’s GDP growth forecast to just 1.0% in 2027, down from
Iron ore has been holding for a few days, but the free fall in HRC is a bad omen. My freight-adjusted CFR estimate is hovering around $83. Simandou is going berserk. In mid-October, it shipped a record 1.58mt in a single week. October itself is on track for about 5.5mt. My aggressive ramp-up forecast is
The recent federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax have sharply reduced investor credit growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September credit aggregates data reported monthly investor credit growth of only 0.24%, a sharp contraction from the recent peak of 0.96% in December 2025. Quarterly investor credit growth was only 1.0%,
War headlines today. Talks progressing. Iran and US both remove red lines. Israel election still uncertain. Brent and diesel cracks fell sharply. LNG fell as well. The latest oil shipment numbers have risen as Iranian attacks have fallen. Global inventories will keep pressure on prices in the medium term. That said, in the short, the market
Toward the start of each month, Cotality makes revisions to its housing price index, adjusting it for the developments not previously captured in its data. As the charts below of past revisions in relatively recent months indicate, when housing prices are falling significantly, the downward revisions can be sizable. In this, the latest revisions which
Global diesel prices are tracking at record highs in real, inflation-adjusted terms as conflicts in the Middle East and Russia continue to disrupt refinery operations and export routes. The wars have damaged some refineries while leaving others unable to maintain normal output because they cannot source enough crude oil or export the fuels they produce.
The Australian Public Service has expanded by about 25% since the Albanese government took office in June 2022. The budget papers show that staffing costs are expected to be $19.6 billion higher over the next four years than previously anticipated, with further increases expected from upcoming enterprise bargaining wage agreements. An AFR analysis of the
For months, I have been calling for the abolition of the pension income test so seniors can take on additional work without losing access to the Aged Pension. A broad coalition of groups recently backed the call, arguing that retaining more people in the workforce longer reduces the need to fill skill gaps with migrants. ABC
Victoria has legislated a target to source 95% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2035. This is one of Australia’s and the world’s most ambitious renewable energy goals, designed to accelerate the state’s transition away from cheap brown coal and toward cleaner energy sources such as wind, solar, and storage. The Renewable Energy (Jobs
Gold broke through $4000 support Friday night. This is starting to look ugly. CFTC is still long. Robots have sold more. I am still cautious, but nibbling here makes short-term sense. The major issue remains yields and the Iran war, and any post-midterm escalation. Bonds will be bid as the market prices in a growth shock,
On Tuesday (Wednesday Australian time), the American people will go to the polls for one of the most consequential midterm elections in living memory, as President Donald Trump’s Republican Party attempts to defend their control of Congress and the Senate. At this stage it’s not looking favourable for the President, with aggregate polling analysis from
Once again, Cotality’s official dwelling value results for November have been heavily downgraded, with values falling far more sharply than its daily dwelling values index suggests. Let me explain. Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, which tracks home values across the five major capital city markets, recorded a 4.1% quarterly decline at the 5-city aggregate level:
US midterm elections don’t usually determine the direction of markets on their own. But this time, the result could have an unusually important influence on how much room Donald Trump has to pursue his economic agenda in the second half of his term. For investors, there are four broad scenarios worth considering. 1. Republican Win:
The bottom has well and truly fallen out of Australia’s auction market, with Cotality’s final clearance rate for last weekend collapsing to only 43.6% nationally, the worst result since late June: Auction volumes were also tracking 42% lower than the same weekend last year. Every capital that held auctions last week had a lower clearance
