Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax in the federal budget have driven a sharp decline in investor credit growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) credit aggregates data for July, illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, shows that investor housing credit growth slowed sharply to 0.46%, down from the recent peak
Australia has long had a problem with what to do with former prime ministers, but it appears Scotty from Marketing takes the cake. Former prime minister Scott Morrison says Labor’s plans for a domestic gas reservation scheme pose a threat to the country’s long-standing and close energy supply partnership with Japan. Morrison, who is vice
I reported last week on The Age newspaper’s interactive tool showing what Melbourne will look like when its population soars beyond 10 million. The modelling suggests that six activity centres will be denser than anything that exists in Melbourne today: The number of dwellings across the top 15 centres is projected to massively increase under each
Bloomberg describes Trump’s emerging strategy for wrecking the midterms. The US Supreme Court handed President Donald Trump a temporary win this week by lifting a ruling that was holding back his plan to restrict voting by mail. But the decision was narrow: The court ruled only that the states challenging the push sued too soon,
The business lobby, policymakers, and the federal government have long argued that Australia needs to run a mass immigration program to overcome future skills shortages. The argument generally goes something like this: Australia’s population is ageing fast, and with the large baby boomer cohort heading into retirement, Australia faces an acute shortage of workers. Australia
The ferrous complex is trading like Chinese stimulus is flowing like the good old days. But it’s not, even if it’s trying. It’s still crushed by realty with no end in sight. Turning to steel, demand is down a meaty 5.6% yoy. While production has all but collapsed. Yet inventories are not coming down. And
The war headlines. Iran declares it will stand against US sanctions and rely equally on defence and diplomacy. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran (IRGC) asserts that it has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz . Al Jazeera was informed by the White House that the US naval blockade is still in full
Shortly prior to the recent by-election which took place in the Western Australian state parliament seat of Secret Harbour, Labor were the heavy favourites to retain what was a safe seat held on a two-party preferred margin of 11.5%. On the 25th of August, 4 days prior to the by-election, odds makers had Labor at
Australia’s house price correction steepened in August. According to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, which tracks value changes across Australia’s five major capital city markets, home prices declined by a hefty 1.2% at the 5-city aggregate level in August. As illustrated in the chart above, declines were broad-based, with significant losses reported across the five
Last week’s economic data shook Australia’s interest rate markets. To recap, the policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation printed at 3.6% in the year to July, above forecasts of 3.5%. The monthly and quarterly pace of trimmed mean inflation also accelerated. Australia’s inflation is also primarily domestically driven, with market services inflation rising by 4.1% in the year
Australia’s auction market has taken another turn for the worse, with the national preliminary auction clearance rate falling again to only 52.4%, down from 56.5% the previous weekend (revised lower to 48.9% on final numbers): At the same time last year, 70.0% of auctions reported a successful result. Auction numbers also remain well below last
For me, the most interesting investment question involving SpaceX isn’t whether it is worth the enormous valuation. It’s whether Elon Musk can build AI data centres quickly enough to change the supply-demand balance of the entire industry. That distinction matters. SpaceX’s valuation is one question. Its potential to disrupt the data-centre market is another. Even
This week’s must-watch video: The Events That Caused World War II Are Now In Motion Again (nobody believed it then either) International reading: Tanking economy spurs stunning conclusion from analyst: Trump’s doing it ‘deliberately’ – Raw Story Economists Who Weren’t Worried About the Debt Are Now Panicking – The Atlantic Gen Z spending more on
As the falls in Australian housing prices continue to grow in size and scope, many Australians are increasingly wondering how far prices could fall before they eventually bounce back. Across the Tasman in New Zealand, we have a real-life example of what happens when an overvalued housing market takes a dive without policymakers riding to
This week’s stronger-than-expected CPI inflation print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has economists tipping near-term interest rate hikes. To recap, the policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation printed at 3.6% year-over-year, above forecasts of 3.5%: The monthly and quarterly pace of trimmed mean inflation has also accelerated: Australia now has one of the strongest-growing trimmed
It’s farewell to a radiant world, reports Bloomie. Singaporean police raided the local office of iron ore trader Radiant World last week and questioned some of the company’s employees as part of an investigation into the business’s transactions after counterparties raised allegations of falsified documents. A number of significant commodity dealers have severed their connections
The Victorian Auditor-General’s Office (VAGO) has released a scathing report on the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) project’s funding, cost and schedule. VAGO uncovered a hidden 1% annual fare levy that has been applied for more than a year without public disclosure. The levy was introduced in secret under former premier Jacinta Allan as a 38‑year
Data centre capex is driving the private business investment outlook mad. The third estimate from the ABS for 2026/27 jumped over $25bn, or 1% of GDP. We haven’t seen numbers like these since the China boom. But it’s not mining this time, though it firmed nicely from Estimate 2. It’s data centres that have ripped.
The Market Ear examines the history of midterms. Upside pain Tech has been aggressively de-grossed, NDX is bouncing from support and Nvidia has once again reinforced the structural AI capex story. With QQQ vol cheap, software breaking out and the calendar becoming increasingly supportive, the ingredients for renewed upside pain are falling into place. Jackson
War headlines today. Saudi Arabia appears to be preparing for a renewed war against the Houthis. Qatar’s foreign minister and prime minister met Iran’s President to discuss ongoing efforts at de-escalation in the region. Iran’s security chief, Moshen Rezaei, is preparing a list of conditions to present to the US to reopen the Strait of
The stars are aligning for immigration cuts. As reported in The Australian, the Albanese government is finalising measures to the immigration system, focusing on international students, visitor visas and onshore applicants: After four months of devising stronger visa requirements and enforcement tools to help the Albanese government meet its NOM forecasts, Mr Burke is expected
The Australian housing market is facing a severe combination of factors that will very likely lead to the largest price correction in living memory. The ‘perfect storm’ of conditions can be summarised as follows: Overvaluation – This correction started with valuations at record highs. The highest mortgage rates in 15 years, which are likely to
Following Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected trimmed-mean inflation by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which led several major banks to forecast imminent interest rate hikes, the ABS on Thursday reported strong household spending in July. Household spending rose by 1.1% in July to be 7.0% higher year-over-year, the strongest annual spending growth since June 2023. Both discretionary
The latest version of AEMO’s flagship report, the 2026 ISP released in June, noted the following about offshore wind [my emphasis]: “Supported by government policies, 9 GW of offshore wind is projected to be online by 2040. However, as offshore wind is two-thirds more expensive than onshore wind to build and connect, no more is
In this week’s podcast, we ask whether Scott Bessent is losing control of the U.S. bond market — as long-term Treasury yields surge despite government intervention. We unpack what’s driving the bond selloff, from soaring deficits and a $40 trillion national debt to inflation risks and growing Treasury supply, and whether Bessent’s attempts to push
