Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The latest temporary visa data from the Department of Home Affairs showed that the number of bridging visas on issue hit a record high of 413,000 in the June quarter of 2026: The surge in bridging visas issued in Australia has been driven in part by former international students, who have clogged the Administrative Review
Following the post-pandemic boom, New Zealand has experienced one of the world’s largest house price crashes. According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), which is the lead index used by the Reserve Bank, New Zealand home prices have declined for more than 4.5 years after peaking in late 2021, down around 20%
Saul Eslake has taken the moment of Jacinta Allen’s fall to provide some useful advice to whoever inherits her mess. Eslake tackles Victoria’s net government debt, which has ballooned under Labour, rising $143 billion since it came to power and forecast to hit almost $200 billion by 2029-30 – or about a quarter of the
Andrew Kemp posted a terrific set of 26 charts illustrating the decline of Australia’s economy, standard of living, and social cohesion. The charts on Australians’ mood stood out to me. First, more Australians than ever believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction: Second, nearly 60% believe that life has gotten worse over the
The bad news starts with China’s official NBS manufacturing PMI: 49.2 in July (GS forecast: 49.9; Bloomberg consensus: 50.1), vs. 50.3 in June. Official non-manufacturing PMI: 49.0 in July (GS forecast: 49.6; Bloomberg consensus: 50.0), vs. 50.2 in June. Neither steel nor iron ore reacted well. The latter is approaching technical lows. Support around $90
If you have ever wondered why some media outlets are overly supportive of the Albanese government’s agenda, it may have something to do with the government’s $74 million Journalism Assistance Fund (JAF), which subsidises the wages of more than 2,000 journalists at 185 media organisations. The JAF is a key part of the federal government’s
Just go away, Honest John. John Howard has declared that One Nation’s push for a monoculture is “pointless”, as the nation’s second longest-serving prime minister praised post-World War II migration as a resounding success and advocated for a conservative path for “Australian multiculturalism”. Mr Howard – the most prominent and effective critic for decades of
In July, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released an analysis showing how changes in the volume of net overseas migration (NOM) would impact the federal budget balance. The PBO claims that the federal budget balance would improve by around $80.6 billion over 11 years under the scenario of ‘Higher’ NOM (+40,000 migrants), while a scenario
How’s this for a bear market rally? TME has more. Korea’s Face-Ripper Just days ago, Korea looked like one of the most unloved AI markets in the world. Mechanical selling had washed through the system, positioning had been aggressively reset, and sentiment was deeply pessimistic. Then came one of the biggest squeezes in the index’s
It’s TACO Monday. Originally from the Trump-friendly Axios and reported by Bloomy: US President Donald Trump said he’s holding off from new strikes on Iran after Tehran and other Middle Eastern powers told him they’re working on an agreement that might quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump agreed to cancel the attack “subject to
In mid-August 2025, the Albanese government gathered together economists, business leaders and policymakers for its ‘Economic Reform Roundtable’. The focus of the gathering was jump-starting the nation’s dismal productivity growth, thereby improving the nation’s economic growth prospects. To put the state of productivity at the time into perspective, between December 2019 and the labour productivity
Cotality’s rental data for July confirmed that the market remains extremely tight. Rental affordability has also hit a fresh record low, with tenant households paying a record share of their incomes on rent. Advertised rents nationally grew by 0.4% in July, leaving the annual growth rate at a cyclically high 5.9% for the third consecutive
One or the other was not the issue. The system is the issue. In the end, the ability to reconcile the irreconcilable simply evaporated, and the certainty was gone. Trying to shove a square society into a round hole has its limits. Asserting speciousness begs questions that must ultimately be answered, and the expectation
With Australia’s housing market now in full correction mode, and values declining across all major capital city markets, vendors have responded by withdrawing their homes from the auction market. This week’s preliminary auction results from Cotality delivered an early clearance rate of 53.6% across the combined capital cities, the highest reading in three weeks, but
If you zoom out, the story of investing over the past 100 years is not really about products. It is about technology. Each new structure, from individual shares through to ETFs, has solved a problem from the previous era. But each has also baked in new limitations. Direct indexing is best understood in that context.
Everyone is talking about tax. Gen Z should be talking about time. Whenever governments announce tax reforms, the debate quickly shifts to winners and losers. Who gets a tax cut? Who pays more? Which strategies stop working? For Gen Z investors, that is probably the wrong question. The biggest driver of your retirement outcome is
This week’s must-watch videos: For anybody with a keen interest in the energy / climate change debate, this is a must-watch: Former Treasury official David Pearl drops truth-bombs on Australia’s collapsing institutions led by captured and politicised public servants, including at the Treasury: International Reading: New Study Finds That A Minimum-Wage Worker In 1971
It’s the finest of businesses with glittering ethics. Australia’s largest oil and gas producer, Woodside Energy, has emerged as one of the nation’s biggest corporate beneficiaries of the Iran war, reporting nearly a 30 per cent revenue jump to $6 billion over the past three months. As the conflict in the Middle East pushes the
The latest dwelling completions data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that only 173,400 homes were built in the year to March 2026, 66,600 (28%) fewer than the 240,000 annual run rate required to meet the National Housing Accord’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years. Over the first 21 months
DXY crashed last night as Arthur Warsh gave the US a little external crisis. While the currency was mashed, the long bond marched higher and is threatening a breakout. This nasty little combination last struck after Liberation Day tariffs. Things are a lot worse today for US prestige and investment credibility. If Arthur Warsh is
The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) has released temporary visa data for the June quarter of 2026, presented below as a rolling four-quarter moving average to remove seasonality. The next chart presents the data on an annual basis, with the 2.5 million temporary visas on issue being the highest on record for June: Temporary visas
TME with more on the bubble and bust of AI. The washout is largely complete Technology remains under pressure, but the market structure has changed materially. Technicals are deeply oversold, while positioning across hedge funds, CTAs, leveraged ETFs and retail has reset aggressively. With much of the forced selling now behind us, the bar for
Former senior Australian Treasury official David Pearl gave a fantastic interview on the John Anderson podcast where, among other things, he highlighted the decline in the Treasury, which he claims has become overly ideological and politicised. “Treasury very sadly is now run by people who are not just politicised, because Treasury has never been independent
Sometimes you time it with precision. Yesterday I asked if Simandou is bringing the pain to iron ore sooner than expected, and here we are today with the bottom falling out of iron ore. Rebar is at 15-month lows. Hot rolled is getting there. Iron ore is still bloated. Mill margins are being crushed. Yet,
Markets are up as the wars in Ukraine and Iran are merging. On one side, Europe and the US are using Ukraine to attack Russia, while China is allied with the latter. On the other side, we have Russia using Iran as the tip of the spear into the US and Europe, while China allies
