Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the wage price index for the June quarter, which rose by 0.8% over the quarter to be 3.2% higher year-over-year: The result was in line with analysts’ expectations but 0.1% below what the Reserve Bank had forecast in its latest Statement of Monetary Policy. Over the year,
So says some gas sheila. Federal Labor is increasingly likely to make changes to its centrepiece gas policy as it heeds widespread criticism that the scheme would crush investment by domestic producers, the chief executive of ASX-listed gas producer Amplitude Energy says. …Amplitude Energy chief executive Jane Norman told investors on Tuesday that the Albanese
Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye published the following chart on X (Twitter) showing how dwelling values are falling at an annual rate of 12.0% across the five major capitals, led by Sydney, which is falling at a rate of 16.7% annualised: Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, meanwhile, posted the following chart showing that the monthly rate
The Market Ear is sanguine. Messy The market isn’t breaking, but leadership is getting increasingly messy. Semis are losing momentum, the SOX/SPX divergence remains wide and skew is suddenly waking up despite relatively little movement in the index. Meanwhile, investors still say they want more AI exposure, just preferably after a correction. The setup is
Simon Kuestenmacher, dubbed the “Stats Guy”, is a well-known immigration shill. For years, he has spread propaganda to support a ‘Big Australia’. The Centre for Population’s latest projections have Australia’s population ballooning to 41 million by 2065-66 – an increase of more than 13 million that is roughly equivalent to adding another Sydney, Melbourne, and
When I first visited China in 2002, I was struck by one thing in particular: how wrong the Western view was that we were going to liberalise it. The scale of China had a ballast that made this impossible. The factories of the Yangtze River, the tearaway development model of Shanghai, and the sheer demographic
War headlines today. Majed al-Ansari, a spokesman for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, says there are no negotiations until Iran/Oman agreement. On social media, US President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz to be “New US Territory.” Iran’s Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, responded by calling Trump “delusional.” Iran’s FM Araghchi claims that the US
With the release of the latest U.S. labour force data, further confirmation has come that all is not well in the U.S. economy. The labour force participation rate has fallen dramatically since late last year, down 1.1 percentage points from 62.5% in November to 61.4% in the latest data, which covers through July. While the
Economists warn that the Albanese government’s removal of key investor tax concessions (negative gearing on existing homes and the 50% CGT discount) could force rents up 15–30% over the next two years, far above Treasury’s estimate of $2 a week, adding substantial pressure to inflation at a time when underlying inflation has already sat outside
Brisbane’s and Perth’s property corrections are in their infancy and are lagging well behind Sydney’s and Melbourne’s, according to Cotality. The outlook for both markets continues to sour, however, amid a surge in ‘for sale’ listings. As illustrated below by Cotality, Brisbane’s listings are tracking 44.1% higher than the same time last year, whereas Perth’s
This is sensible policy. Pauline Hanson has vowed to slash the price of cigarettes by 75 per cent in a move she claims will fight organised crime. In a shock policy, the One Nation leader will is calling for a radical rethink of cigarette taxes that would slash the current cost of a $46.50 pack
The Teal federal member for Wentworth (covering Sydney’s wealthy eastern suburbs), Allegra Spender, has consistently advocated mass migration while also contradictorily demanding lower carbon emissions (for example, see here and here). To her credit, Spender has at least been consistent in her views. A year ago, Spender gave qualified support to a new housing plan
The AEMO provides a neat quarterly assessment of the NEM renewables rollout, giving us a snapshot of where things are at. In short, the major reason the pipeline of renewables has slowed is that connections have not kept pace. This bottleneck is easing, but the pace of applications for new projects is accelerating much faster.
For decades, net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provided a strong, reliable leading indicator of the direction of net overseas migration (NOM). When the rate of NPLT arrivals rose or fell, it reliably suggested that NOM was moving in the same direction. The strong correlation between NPLT
The Market Ear has the latest. Still No Dip Markets keep squeezing, but the easy trades are getting harder. Tech is back near the highs despite lighter positioning and persistent outflows, memory has gone from capitulation to chase mode, while Korea remains heavily under-owned after a massive rebound. Elsewhere, China AI continues to offer some
Former Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson has lambasted the aggressive reduction in the migrant intake advocated by the Coalition and One Nation. He claims that deep migration cuts would leave fewer working-age people in Australia to bear the income tax burden of paying off the government’s debt while putting further pressure on inflation. “The government is
Chinese growth numbers yesterday were awful, as usual. Industrial production (IP) growth slowed to 4.5% yoy in July from 5.3% yoy in June. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to -12.8% yoy in July from -9.3% yoy in June. Retail sales growth eased to 0.6% yoy from +1.0% yoy in June. The two charts that
Today’s war headlines. Iran should “put up the white flag of surrender,” according to US President Donald Trump, since the two countries’ memorandum of understanding (MoU) ended on Monday. Trump threatens to bomb ally Oman. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, stated in a speech in Tehran that the MoU deadline was “entirely moot” due
When the debate over the impact of removing negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on investment properties kicked off after budget night in May, a narrative emerged that this would reduce the number of homes built by property investors. The federal Treasury estimated that the changes to the capital gains tax discount and
For decades, as values continued to march ever higher, Australia’s housing market was in a state of FOMO (i.e., the “fear of missing out”). Sure, there were dips along the way. However, Australians never wavered in their belief that home prices always rise over the medium to long term. However, following the Reserve Bank’s rate
Unlike Australia, New Zealand’s housing affordability continues to improve. And the charts below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro tell the tale. New Zealand dwelling values fell slightly again in July, down 0.4% year-on-year. Values have now fallen for around 4.5 years after peaking in late 2021. In real inflation-adjusted terms, New Zealand dwelling values
The ABS released housing finance commitments on Friday, and the standout number was the flight of investors with a quarterly crash of 10.2%. The total Q2 drop was -5.4%, with owner-occupiers offsetting it somewhat at -1.9%. This is not an unusual magnitude of drop for a housing downcycle. Once we bottom out, I’d expect the
Australia’s immigration policy is worsening labour shortages in the construction sector. As reported by the Grattan Institute, “migrants are less likely to work in construction than in most other industries. About 32% of Australian workers were foreign-born, but only about 24% of workers in building and construction were born overseas”. “Migrants who arrived in Australia
The headline number of Chinese property sales remains awful. Stimmies to the rescue! MS. China launched a RMB15tn five-year urban-renewal programme covering 115,000 ageing communities and c.500,000 dilapidated homes, while cities increased smaller land supply. Beijing cut non-local buyers’ social-security requirement within the Fifth Ring Road to one year and raised the maximum provident-fund loan
Victoria’s state budget is drowning in debt, has the lowest credit rating in the nation, and risks further downgrades. Moody’s recently warned that by the end of the decade, $1 out of every $10 in state revenue will be spent servicing Victoria’s debt. The blowout of Victoria’s debt is despite residents paying the highest taxes
