Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Is convincing a coal junkie even possible? Not on yesterday’s evidence. Confronted with debunked arguments left and right against his coal attachment, LVO yesterday pivoted to India, the old chestnut. Economically, India is currently sitting about where China was at the turn of the century. As illustrated below, if you slide India left three by
According to Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, there has been almost a full pass-through of the Reserve Bank’s 75 bps of tightening this year into the weighted-average new and outstanding home loan rates. As a result, Australian mortgage holders now pay some of the highest rates in the world. The rise in mortgage rates, the
The ferrous complex remains stuck in the mid-$95s. There’s not much else to report on except for the scuttling of roaches as the lights come on. According to Bloomie and individuals acquainted with the situation, Raiffeisen Bank International AG and Zuercher Kantonalbank are two of the institutions that have extended credit to iron ore dealer
The spurious claim that intermittent, weather-dependent energy is best to power data centres has been thoroughly debunked by the operators of such sites. Over the weekend, The Age reported that Singapore-backed Zerra DC has proposed to build a $1.1 billion, 336‑MW data centre campus on Melbourne’s former Ford factory site, which could double the city’s total data‑centre
While the national paper descends into energy bribery: The gas debate has turned into a clown show courtesy of Stoke’s Beach Energy. Beach Energy, an oil and gas producer, is considering exporting LNG from the east coast as part of a strategy to offset potential losses from the federal government’s planned domestic gas reservation scheme.
In 2024, Canada experienced the largest immigration boom in its history, with an unprecedented 1,260,000 people arriving in the year to March 2024, almost all of whom came via net overseas migration. At the time, viral videos emerged of long lines of international students queuing for entry-level jobs: You can watch these videos here. Following
So says TME. The Tech Reset Tech has bounced, but the reset beneath the surface remains extreme. Positioning has collapsed just as earnings revisions keep moving higher, semis still lag fundamentals and volatility has become materially cheaper. With NDX parked below 30k, the next break could matter. Time to revisit the upside. Parked up here
Oil and cracks reopened bigly last night. The US SPR fell below 300mb as draws accelerated again. Remember, despite what the Trumpian propaganda at the DOE says, 270mb is cut off if you want to have a military capable of sustained operations. The Hormuz and Red Sea remain shut. The Madman is getting madder. Trump
In the ongoing and eternal debate surrounding the right level of migration into Australia, there are often claims that the current level of migration into Australia is “normal” and that on these grounds criticism of the size of the intake should be dismissed. While it’s certainly true that the magnitude of the intake is currently
The 2011 Knight Review strongly advocated expanding post-study work rights (PSWR) to significantly boost Australia’s appeal as a destination for international students and to help Australian universities and employers. The Gillard Labor government significantly enhanced employment rights for graduate (485) visas in 2013. In particular, 485 visa holders are not required to meet skills shortage
Melbourne dwelling values have experienced zero growth over the past five years and have declined significantly this calendar year. This lack of growth relative to the rest of Australia has meant that Melbourne’s median house price is now tracking at historical cyclical lows compared with the other capital cities. This price discrepancy has made Melbourne
DXY is down and out after the dud BLS jobs report. AUD is up, conversely. The good and evil twins reversed. Gold is calling an end to the war. Oil not yet. Base metals yaawned. In my view, big miners cannot survive an iron ore rout. Copper be damned. EM stocks will enjoy a falling
The 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, considered the gold standard in keeping track of what powers the world, was released last month and revealed that: Oil consumption hit a record high. Natural gas consumption hit a record high. Coal consumption hit a record high. Fossil fuels accounted for 86% of world energy supplied, with
The panic is gone, says TME. Weekend WTF charts Risk has been sucked out, panic has been totally “eradicated” and AI has barely re-grossed post the Leo Low. The unstoppable Republican-trade is rolling over. And Wall Street strategist signals still scream sell. Welcome to this somewhat schizophrenic weekend chart dump on positioning and sentiment. Risk
Ross Elliott from The Pulse argues that cities are undergoing a long‑term structural shift away from CBD‑centric office economies towards polycentric, suburban‑focused urban systems. The shift has been driven by three primary forces. First, growth in finance, property, and business services — the sectors that fuelled CBD expansion in the 1990s–2000s — has been slowing
It’s still hovering at maximum profitability. Steel has bounced a little, but it’s not sustainable. Inventories are plentiful. Demand is awful. Production is catastrophic. CISA late July shipments are still down 6% YOY at 1.86my per day. Exports of steel are down 4.4% YTD, which means a 5% fall in annualised output for the
The AFR recently produced the following chart showing the massive backlog of parent visas awaiting permanent residency: In the 2024-25 financial year, there were 157,000 parent visas in the backlog, up 52,000 from 2018-19. The Guardian published a sob story that thousands of people applying for Australia’s parent visas are dying before their applications are
US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, far less than expected. The bulk of the drop came from declines in leisure and hospitality (-40k) and local government education (-50k). The latter likely reflects a negative contribution from seasonal trends around the school summer break, which seasonal adjustment did not fully capture. The three-month average
Here it is, in all its glory. The pact was signed in Mecca, not Riyadh, sending a clear message that it is partly about Islam. It’s not much fun for sheilas, Israel, Iran, or the Kurds. One wonders what the alliance means for Israel’s Muslims, given Hamas is Sunni. Basically, Saudi Arabia is already at
In the years since the pandemic first arrived on Australia’s shores, there has been an often forgotten factor boosting the fortunes of the housing market: far less stock on the market for sale. According to figures from SQM Research, total housing stock on the market at a national level remains well below normal levels for
After 3.5 years of extreme immigration, which saw 1,100 net migrants arrive each day under Labor, the rise of One Nation has finally caused the Albanese government to pivot. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has already implemented minor measures to reduce net overseas migration (NOM), including: A 24% increase in visa application fees (effective July
The 60 day ceasefire enabling negotiation of a final deal on the Straits of Hormuz ends tomorrow week. And it doesn’t appear we are in any way close to having a final deal. Watching on is almost the entire rest of the planet. There wouldn’t be many nations without some sort of effect depending on
Cotality’s daily dwelling values index continues to fall across all major Australian capital cities. Over the past month, values have fallen by 1% at the 5-city aggregate level, with Sydney (-1.5%) and Melbourne (-1.2%) leading the decline and smaller falls recorded across the other major capitals. Sydney’s and Melbourne’s declines from peaks are now well
Every time another tech giant announces billions of dollars in spending on AI infrastructure, the same question comes to mind: are we witnessing the next great technological revolution, or simply watching another investment bubble inflate? It’s an understandable concern.History has shown that transformative technologies often attract more capital than they can ultimately justify. But after
The ethical investing boom has hit a structural wall. For years, super funds and fund managers have funnelled billions into “Sustainable,” “ESG,” or “Ethical” Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). To the average Australian investor, these labels imply a clean conscience. But peel back the sleek marketing brochures, and you will find a different reality. Standard ethical funds frequently hold companies involved in
