Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The war on the CFMEU has coughed up a dividend. The Albanese government is in the midst of creating a three-tier skilled migration system, with separate visa streams for low-paid care workers, highly paid professionals earning more than $135,000, and a “core” stream for workers earning between $70,000 and $135,000 where there is a skills
The latest dwelling value results from CoreLogic and PropTrack showed that the market has ground to a halt, led by Sydney and Melbourne. The auction market has also stalled, with final clearance rates in Sydney, Melbourne, and nationwide declining to their lowest level of the year. The weakness in the nation’s housing market is also
The Guardian’s latest Essential Poll shows “voters have given the Albanese government an F on containing housing costs and surprisingly little credit for increasing wages”. 53% of voters polled rated the government’s performance as “poor” on “increasing the amount of affordable housing”, including 30% who said it had been “very poor”. Those polled also said
The Market Ear on the melt-up. NASDAQ at huge levels NASDAQ is flirting with huge levels. Close this another 1-2% higher, and we risk a Heinz ketchup moment. There is only vacuum to the upside…and NASDAQ is basically trading at the same levels we traded at during the summer highs. Source: Refinitiv Surprising SOX SOX
The revolt is building against Michele Bullhawk’s Psycho RBA. Amid suggestions the bank runs the risk of repeating a mistake it made in 2018 and 2019 that forced it to dramatically reverse monetary policy settings, a growing number of analysts believe the RBA has misjudged the impact of the jobs market on the inflation rate.
Victoria has the nation’s largest per capita debt and the lowest credit rating. The state’s debt trajectory is worrying. The budget forward estimates project that Victoria’s net debt will peak at 25% of gross state product. The Victorian Labor government has signed contracts to build the $200 billion Suburban Rail Loop project without locking in
For years, MacroBusiness has argued that too many Australians are studying at university instead of TAFE and vocational education. This has flooded the labour market with useless degrees and resulted in recurring skill shortages in a variety of industries, particularly the trades: We have received support from Jobs and Skills Australia commissioner Professor Barney Glover,
Bloomberg has had a crack at what’s gone wrong for the energy superidiot. As they age [coal], they’re failing more and more often: Three key stations were all in unplanned outages Wednesday, pulling about 7% of coal generation off the grid with minimal notice. It wouldn’t be a problem if there was enough wind and
Legislation passed late last week has added real estate agents, lawyers, and accountants to Australia’s anti-money laundering and terror financing rules, a move that Austrac chief Brendan Thomas has welcomed. Thomas said the changes will enable him to combat the more than $60 billion in harm that child exploitation, drug trafficking, scams, and human trafficking
Last night saw a big move higher in USD due to more Fedspeak around another cut in December but also due to higher manufacturing demand from the latest ISM print. Tech stocks led the way on Wall Street while European shares also surged on the lower Euro. The USD is pushing aside all the undollars
DXY is back. Consolidation over! AUD is barely clinging to the cliff’s edge. As CNY lets go. JPY will roll next. Gold and oil despair. Dirt too. Miners meh. EM yawn. Junk isn’t happy. As the curve re-inverts. Stocks to the fricken’. Whether or not the DXY consolidation is done, I will leave it to
On Monday, the Melbourne Institute (MI) monthly inflation gauge was released, which showed that inflationary pressure remained well contained in November. As Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro illustrates below, MI trimmed mean inflation increased by only 0.2% in October but rebounded to 0.5% on a quarterly basis. The following chart from Fabo suggests that “the
A nation swimming in coal and natural gas should never experience energy insecurity, blackouts, and soaring prices. Yet it’s not even the peak of summer, and NSW narrowly avoided blackouts last week thanks to households and business owners turning off washing machines, air conditioners, and other appliances. The state and other parts of Australia are
Asian stock markets are generally positive for the first session of the trading week after a strong Friday night lead and some somewhat positive macro news over the weekend, although currencies have gapped lower against a resurgent USD. Euro is dicing with the 1.05 handle again while the Australian dollar also suffered a drop, now
Earlier this year, The AFR posted the following chart showing how Australia has benefited the most from global commodity prices over the last 20 years: On Friday, Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro posted the following chart showing mining companies’ massive profits in Australia. As you can see, mining profits jumped from around $30 billion per quarter
Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers has injected a whole new level of uncertainty into interest rates. His tax and spend economy has hoodwinked the RBA (not that that was hard). His immigration obsession has led the RBA backwards to its misunderstanding of wages from the last cycle. His energy rebates have paralysed monetary policy expectations. Now,
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released retail sales data for October, which posted a third consecutive rise. As illustrated in the table below from Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, retail sales rose by 0.6% in October to be 3.4% higher year-on-year. The 0.6% rise in October follows growth of 0.1% in
The Market Ear with the bull. Imminent upside risk? All bigger moves lower in the AAII bull-bear spread have been followed by the SPX moving higher. Is this the next “pain” trade, especially as SPX hasn’t even retraced during the latest sentiment “puke”? Refinitiv Must have Record 4-week inflow to US equity funds. BofA Now
Economists at the National Bank of Canada (NBC) produced the following chart showing how “since 2021, there has been a significant imbalance between the strong increase in population and the absence of a significant rebound in construction”. “This has contributed to a deterioration in affordability in both the rental and resale markets, and has led
The Climate Change Authority’s (CCA) latest annual progress report has revealed that emissions fell by 3 million tonnes of CO2 over 2023–24, which is a fifth of the 15 million tonnes needed to be cut annually to hit the federal government’s target of emissions falling 43% on 2005 levels by 2030. The CCA states that
Australia’s ability to feed itself, build houses, talk about itself, and even wipe its arse is being destroyed by the East Coast gas export cartel. From breakfast staples to bathroom supplies, the price you pay for goods to run a home are soaring upwards, hastened by energy costs. …Homestyle Bake, which supplies Queensland supermarkets, schools,
Chinese PMIs are out. The headlines will be about lifting manufacturing, but overall this is a weak report. In November , the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index ( PMI ) was 50.3% , up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the pace of manufacturing expansion accelerated slightly. The problem is the Services PMI fell away. In November , the non-manufacturing business
As is so often the case, iron ore is busy killing the golden goose by running away from steel prices. Mill margins are tanking and output has rolled over. Demand is slackening too, though I expect a decent end to the year on tariff frontrunning. Markets are hoping for more yawnulus. It is probably too
There was some positive news on the rental front. CoreLogic reported that national rental growth slowed to just 0.2% in November, the slowest monthly growth rate since April 2021. This meant that the annual rate of rental growth slowed to 5.3%, down from 8.1% at the same time last year and by more than 9%
Friday night was unusually boisterous given the mid week US Thanksgiving break with Wall Street lifting alongside European shares to provide risk markets with a positive end to the trading month. The USD remains somewhat weak against most of the majors with Euro holding above the 1.05 level while Yen made new highs and the
