Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
This is penny-pinching balderdash. Victorian police say they are being strong-armed into accepting a lowball new pay deal or risk losing millions in collective backpay. Under a new proposal put to rank and file members on Wednesday, police would lock in a 4.5 per cent annual pay increase over the next four years — significantly lower than
The steel and iron ore jaws are looking pretty attractive for a May seasonal short. The other bulks have also been deflating materially. Metallurgic coal is at critical support at around $200. On the monthly chart, it has broken. Thermal coal has been a bit better lately, but 2024 sucked the big one. The budget
The Australian dollar has been in free-fall for a number of months, but has rallied in recent days. Join us in this week’s podcast as Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen look at the five main drivers for the Australian dollar, and discuss whether there is more downside to come, and how long consolidation
Interest rates and house prices lower together? Wouldn’t that rock the foundations of Aussie entitlement? It’s not inconceivable. The current affordability is unprecedented after Albo’s economic demolition. Core Logic with more. Interest rates might be cut in early 2025 as inflation continues to drop, with annual core inflation falling to 3.2% in November (below the
Australia’s gas price is already insane. There isn’t a reserved molecule on the East Coast that can’t be extracted for profit at $7Gj, and most of it is half of that, yet the spot price is $14Gj, 400% higher than historical averages. As a direct result, electricity prices are up 160% year on year and
The Market Ear on the upside force. Not yet… ….but the SPX is approaching ATHs quickly. The latest bounce has been violent. RSI is still not very overbought, but upside potential is diminishing, as we actually lack a new trend. Source: Refinitiv The tech squeeze NASDAQ bounced perfectly on the longer term trend line and
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing construction data for Q3 2024, again showing that the Albanese government’s target to build 1.2 million homes over five years is delusional. The number of dwellings commencing construction in Q3 2024 rose to 42,874 but remained well below the target’s required quarterly run rate of 60,000. Only
Here it is. Over the past two years, the Biden administration struck a careful balance on artificial intelligence. The White House took steps to ensure the US stayed ahead of China in developing the technology while also trying to address some of AI’s many potential risks. In his first 24 hours back in Washington, Donald
DXY is holding but looks vulnerable to more pullback. AUD the opposite. CNY pumped and dumped on tariff talk. Oil is offering hope to risk. All commods were whacked on Trump’s 10% China tariff threat. Big miners too. EM stocks are caput. Junk is still stuck. Yields are sticky. Stocks heading for new ATH. Goldman
Wall Street advanced once more although the broader S&P500 just missed out on making a new high with tech stocks again leading the way. European bourses were somewhat mixed on the periphery but also performed well. The USD is now trying to get out of its weak short term cycle against the major currency pairs
One of the Trump Administration’s first acts upon taking the US Presidential Office was to declare a “national energy emergency”. “We need a reliable, diversified, and affordable supply of energy to drive our Nation’s manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, and defense industries, and to sustain the basics of modern life and military preparedness”, the executive order reads.
A lot of regional internal news are moving Asian stock markets instead of the usual macro newsfront with mainland Chinese shares off sharply while traders await the latest BOJ decision as wage and labour concerns mount. The USD is still suffering from post-Trumpian volatility which had been centered around Yen although as other undollars continue
Always sobering and usually right…eventually. I agree with much of the below but don’t think we are there yet. Albert Edwards of Societe General bears it up!  Existing trends were pushed to new extremes in 2024. The idea of US equity market exceptionalism has taken such deep root that it’s impacting so much else,
Goldman with the note. President Trump’s Inauguration Day policy announcements on tariffs were more benign than expected. While we did not expect major policy pronouncements so soon following inauguration, Trump’s comments on China were notably less hawkish than during the presidential campaign or even his more recent comments since the election. And while we viewed
The Market Ear with more. The power of the hammer candle Last Monday we pointed out the powerful hammer candle in SPX. We wrote: “Watch these type of candles post sell offs, as they can be the first signal of markets about to bounce. We saw a similar candle set up in early November.” Fast forward
Westpac with the note. Leading Index growth rate dips back to 0.25% but still slightly positive. Growth set to improve in 2025 but remain lacklustre. Modest lifts in commodities, consumer, equities and dwelling approvals. While the growth signal is still not particularly strong, it has shown a clear improvement on the persistently negative, below-trend reads
CBA with the bad news. Despite our expectation for a lift in household expenditure to a more trend-like pace as the cash rate is normalised, there will be a natural handbrake on the pace of consumption growth. First, the positive impact on household income from the Stage 3 tax cuts will fade as no personal
The Chinese steel rally is petering out, stalling iron ore. BHP is spewing iron ore. WAIO 128 Mt 1% | 145 Mt (100% basis) Production increased as a result of continued strong supply chain performance with record volumes delivered from the Central Pilbara hub (South Flank and Mining Area C) following the completion of the
With an official unemployment rate of only 4.0%, you would be forgiven for thinking that Australia’s labour market is booming and incredibly tight. However, new data from Seek, NAB, and Jobs & Skills Australia contradict this view. Seek’s employment report for December revealed that the number of job ads fell by 3.0% over the month,
DXY held its losses. AUD most of the gains. Chart of the day goes to lead boots. Commods took softer than expected tariff signals as less than expected stimulus. Miners grinded higher. EM too. Junk better. Yields unconvinced. Stocks march on. El Trumpo half upset the applecart by declaring 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico
Wall Street returned from its long weekend and rallied across the board, not helped by more tariff talk although most of that looks like the typical hot air so far, with the USD still remaining in a weak short term cycle against the major currency pairs. European shares were flat as the lift in Euro
The fearmongering over the exodus of property investors from Victoria has continued. Rental bond data from the Victorian Government shows that the state lost 24,726 rentals (3.6% of its stock) in the year ending 30 September 2024, the sharpest decline in rental bonds on record. Melbourne lost 23,108 rentals (4.2% of its stock) over the
Asian stock markets are generally in a positive mood although mainland Chinese shares can’t find a bid as they worry about the incoming Washington Circus as tariff threats still linger like a full Depends pullup. Meanwhile FX volatility was centered around Yen again as other undollars continue to probe the USD while the Australian dollar
If you cancel instead of engaging with your political and ideological competition, then it is you, not them, that has succumbed to hate. Sadly for cancel culture, by definition, it can’t learn this lesson, and so self-immolation is inevitable. Amid staff turnover and clashes at Guardian Australia, journalists in the UK have reportedly been considering
So says the CBA’s excellent Gareth Aird. We forecast GDP growth to have been 1.1%/yr at Q4 24 and to accelerate through 2025 to be 2.2%/yr in Q4 25. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher in H1 25 and we anticipate it will end the year at 4.3% (the peak in this cycle).
