Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Through academia, the halls of power and elements of social media there is a often a common narrative thread, the idea that everything is okay enough and that whatever criticism may actually be valid is largely derived from the mistakes and policy choices from those on the other side of the political and ideological divide.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has hiked the official cash rate four times this year to a 15-year high of 4.60%. As a result, Australia now has the second-highest official policy rate in the advanced world, behind Iceland. Despite the RBA’s aggressive rate hikes, Australia’s inflation problem continues to worsen. On Wednesday, the Australian
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2026. The key movements are illustrated below: Headline CPI rose by 4.3% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 4.0% in the 12 months to August. Housing was the largest contributor to annual inflation in September, rising by
TME on the crash under the boom. The great volatility disconnect Something unusual is happening beneath the surface of equities. Defensive sectors are showing bubble-like behavior, US earnings moves keep exceeding what options price in, and Europe is paying up for volatility that rarely materializes. Meanwhile, the semiconductor washout is creating interesting upside opportunities, while
Six months ago, Perth’s housing market looked impervious to a house price correction, with values continuing to grow at a solid pace. The tables have well and truly turned, with Perth’s dwelling values now falling at the equal fastest pace among the major capital cities, down by 1.7% over the past month, according to Cotality.
Ferrous prices are in free fall, led by hot-rolled coil, a bad sign for hot metal output. Iron ore is at new two-year lows. But not quite if you normalise freight rates. Mid-October CISA data was soft again. Even so, inventories rose. Steel output is very shitty. Deteriorating profitability among Chinese steelmakers has further weighed
The Victorian budget is drowning in debt. Net debt is forecast to hit $200 billion by the end of the decade: Credit ratings agency Moody’s recently forecast that the state would spend $1 of every $10 of revenue earned on interest payments by the end of the decade: Wages are the Victorian budget’s largest expense.
DXY looks ready for more bounce. That said, with France calming down, EUR could do it instead. The twins have death-crossed. As soon as oil eases, the growth party resumes. Not so obvious for EM. But screamingly so for junk. As duration rallies. Stocks to the moon! It’s not exactly complex. What is a little
War headlines today. Israel votes. More tankers on fire. It was a better day for Brent and cracks. LNG too. ANZ sees China wading back into oil. As Middle Eastern (ME) supply recovers, China’s refinery demand and inventory rebuild will again be key to absorbing additional barrels. Recent data suggest they are snapping up the
As the realities of the new world unfolding before our eyes continue to become apparent, challenges thought largely solved have once again been brought back to the forefront. Between 2005 and 2020, total U.S. electricity consumption grew at an average annual rate of just 0.1%. This led some to conclude that the challenges presented by
Over the past two years, the Albanese government has increased the cost, evidentiary burden, and scrutiny of student visas to stem the flow of non-genuine students. Measures introduced include: Tougher English-language requirements: From March 2024, the minimum English proficiency standard for student visas increased from an IELTS equivalent 5.5 to 6.0. Major increase in student
Tonight I’ll appear on DFA Live with Martin North from 8.00pm AEST, where we will dive into the dramatic falls in home prices and whether this signals a broader malaise in Australia’s economy. If so, what can be done about it, and how should households prepare for a potential recession? You can ask a question
National Australia Bank (NAB) recently announced plans to cut 2,500 jobs by mid-2027, including 1,500 by the end of this year. However, NAB has now revealed it plans to abolish 3,200 jobs before Christmas, although it will invite some displaced staff to apply for new jobs through a process known as ‘spill-and-fill’. A senior NAB manager has likened
News is leading the charge, oddly. Design graduate Harriet Lindsay has spent nearly a year emailing, calling and applying – but she still can’t land a job after spending $25,000 to obtain her UTS degree. After contacting about 200 design firms across Australia, the 23-year-old from Sydney’s Northern Beaches is starting to wonder whether she
If the latest opinion polls are accurate, the Victorian Labor government faces a crushing defeat at November’s state election. The latest Newspoll reported by The Australian suggests Victoria’s political landscape has shifted dramatically ahead of the 28 November election, with the Coalition holding a commanding lead over Labor. Labor’s primary vote has fallen 4 points
The Godzilla El Nino just keeps growing. BOM animation. There’s no stopping it. Here are the strongest El Niños on record compared to today. UBS pulls no punches. Strongest El Niño in more than 75 years According to the expert, the current El Niño is unequivocally the strongest observed since modern sea surface temperature monitoring
Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye has posted the following chart on X (Twitter) showing that the current “crash” in Australian dwelling values is “officially the worst ever”: “Current Aussie housing crash is the worst ever recorded since 1980 – national capital city prices are currently falling at a 16% annualised pace based on the last three
TME asks the question. DB nailed the tech unwind. Now what? Credit where it’s due. On October 9, Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha and team tactically downgraded tech from overweight to neutral, warning of an unfavorable risk/reward setup and a potential sharp reversal. The timing was excellent. Mega-cap growth and tech have since fallen 7%, while
War headlines today. Another ship on fire in Hormuz. Iran seeks peace with Mecca partners. IDF chief resists Netanyahu’s order to attack Iran. Dated Brent is still climbing. Both Brent futures and diesel eased, but this is now a weekly pattern of down on Monday and new highs by Friday. Oil flows out of the
In recent times, One Nation and its leader Pauline Hanson have gained an incredible amount of ground in the polls, rising to often top the polls on primary vote. The genesis of the move from the relative backwater ground of a long time minor party to battling as an equal among the major’s has been
Last week’s ultra-hawkish commentary from RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser immediately sent expectations of interest rate hikes among economists and in financial markets skyward. Hauser’s central message was that inflation is proving more persistent and “materially worse” than expected, inflation expectations are beginning to drift higher, and the RBA remains prepared to tighten policy further.
CoreWeave’s debt problems raise a question that matters well beyond its shareholders: Is Coreweave a loose thread that can be snapped with little damage? Or will it be the thread that unravels the entire fabric of the AI trade? At the moment, I think it is more the former. And my expectation is that if
Australia’s housing market is facing its largest price correction in living memory. Cotality’s daily dwelling values index has plummeted by 7.6% since early April across the five major capital cities, led by Sydney, where values have fallen by 9.8%. Values continue to fall at a furious pace, down 4.2% over the past quarter: At this
Goldman has been pretty good on the Chinese property crash, being more bearish than most. But it’s not been bearish enough. China’s property downturn is now in its sixth year. While we had projected then property sector’s drag to real GDP growth to narrow somewhat from last year to this year, most housing activity indicators
Australia’s university system has become a marketing scam that lures full-fee-paying international students while minimising wages for rank-and-file teaching staff. Universities have become less focused on academia and teaching, instead treating education like a profit-maximising private corporation that enriches vice-chancellors and senior management. The federal government has aided and abetted this transformation into degree factories
