Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The political class in Australia has truly ‘jumped the shark’. Last week, Celia Perkins, Deputy Secretary of Security and Estate at the Department of Defence, opened a public Senate committee hearing by reading a prepared statement that attempted to prohibit the reposting of Defence evidence on social media and the reproduction of the likeness of
LVO is rightly concerned that NSW may run out of power. The problem is imminent, and it comes with a variety of risks. I’ve created a single master chart to illustrate these issues. This includes data centre demand. The three largest risks are further delays to Snowy Hydro 2.0, Central-West Orana transmission community resistance, and
The Australian has reported on the “unprecedented” demand for data centres in Sydney, which are growing at a “rapid pace”. 20 GW of connection enquiries have been lodged — double NSW’s current peak demand. However, Western Sydney’s transmission network has “limited remaining capacity”. Transgrid, Australia’s largest electricity transmission company, warns of “reliability issues and supply constraints”
You wouldn’t know it from headline prices, but iron ore is in trouble. Subtracting the $9, at least, to get to normal FOB prices, owing to shipping rates that are double the normal level, gives us low-90s prices for CFR. Iron ore has not budged for three months. The news flow is poor. The latest
The August NAB Business Survey, which is based on responses from 24 to 31 August, was released on Tuesday, with conditions turning negative and falling to their lowest level since the pandemic as profitability collapses. Business confidence also fell in response and remains deeply negative. Falling profitability was the primary driver of the deterioration in
Bloxo elegantly captured the RBA’s recent choices as between stagflation and recession. It has chosen the latter. Yesterday, two key governors hit the hustings to warn folks that more tightening is coming. The first was the adorable Sarah Hunter, Assistant governor (Economic). I think the Board have been pretty clear. The staff as well. Certainly
Today’s headlines. If you think this war isn’t escalating, you’re not paying attention. Houthis rain hell upon Saudi oil and military with dozens of missiles and drones. US rains hell on Iranian tankers around Kharg Island. Iran fires over 40 missiles on US ships and Jordanian bases, including cluster munitions, and warns crews of all
When Tehran first throttled maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz in early March, oil market analysts counted the limited number of days until the release of Western strategic reserves would prove insufficient to make up for the loss of supply and prices would rocket. While it’s certainly true that Western strategic oil reserves have
Cotality’s daily dwelling index has hit a new milestone, with values across the five major capital city markets now down by 5% from their April 2026 peak: The largest decline in 40 years of records was the October 2017 to May 2019 episode, when values at the 5-city aggregate level fell by 8.6%. The quarterly
Australia’s construction pipeline is bigger than ever. Following decades of mass immigration, Australia is suffering from a chronic housing shortage estimated by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver to be between 200,000 and 300,000 dwellings. Australia’s current rate of housing construction is tracking at only 173,400 in the year to March 2026, well below last decade’s
TME on the crazy calm in equities. The current equilibrium won’t hold, argues Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen. Rates markets are still underpricing the inflation pressure ahead, with only modest tightening cycles priced across central banks. Either inflation rolls over, or rates need to move higher. If it is the latter, risk assets will eventually have
According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) leading house price index, which is used by the Reserve Bank, home prices nationally have collapsed back to early 2018 levels in real terms following a near five-year decline: New data from Cotality likewise shows that New Zealand’s house price crash has reasserted itself following
There are loads of articles around today claiming a new iron ore boom as the price moves above $100. These are completely wrong. The only thing booming in iron ore is shipping rates, as diesel cracks go nuts. This is absorbed into the daily CFR price, which the market generally uses, but it is a
In late 2023, it was revealed that the former head of the Victorian transport department (i.e., from 2015 to 2018), Richard Bolt, told Victorian Ombudsman Deborah Glass that he was excluded from the early stages of the Suburban Rail Loop’s (SRL) development and cautioned that it would be a waste of public funds given that
My god, it has taken 15 years for the MSM to catch on, but it finally has. From the time-warped ABC. “All roads lead to Santos’s GLNG project,” says Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial. Kavonic, one of Australia’s most respected oil and gas analysts, says the tensions stem from the once-in-a-generation
War headlines today: Iran targeted US carrier with hypersonic missile. Hormuz traffic is down by one-third over the weekend, says Kplr. Houthis bomb Jizan again. Iran and Oman ready deal. Will US bomb it? The White House is losing control of the energy complex again. Cracks and Brent both roared. Dated Brent is likely pushing
With the release of the latest ABS Wage Price Index data came news that real wages were once again contracting on an annual basis, despite headline inflation remaining suppressed by the Albanese government’s cut to the fuel excise tax. As one might imagine, wage growth varied widely by industry, with the healthcare and social assistance
Property developer Bathla Group entered voluntary administration late last month after running out of cash, leaving $3.6 billion in private‑credit debt, 2,000 homes mid‑construction, and 15,000 planned dwellings in limbo. Larry Kaine, managing partner at Corporate Recovery Partners, warned last week that the collapse of Bathla Group – one of Western Sydney’s biggest home builders – could
For months on MB, radio, and podcasts, I have been calling for the pension income test to be abolished so that pensioners can take on additional work without losing their access to the Aged Pension. A broad coalition of groups has backed the call, arguing the more people that can be retained in the workforce
The Day After Tomorrow comes to life as the Godzilla El Niño pumps its triplets into the Eastern Pacific. Poor little Hawaii is the cyclone sandwich. From left to right, they are Lowell (Cat 5) Karina (Cat 4) and Marie (Cat 2). The big view. Remember the movie. The latest on the Godzilla El Niño
According to data from realestate.com.au, housing affordability has fallen to its lowest level on record, with households earning a median income of about $125,000 a year only able to afford 12% of homes sold across the country. Record-high home prices in 2025 combined with higher interest rates could not offset income growth or recent price
The freight-adjusted iron ore price is still at about $90. Chinese port stocks are still easing. Expect a big turn up into year-end. Chinese steel output remains absolutely shocking. But it can’t draw down steel inventory. Nor is there much hope in profit margins. Stimmies suck. The cost curve shakeout has started. Led by Chinese
According to the official population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Sydney’s population was 180,300 larger than Melbourne’s in 2024-25: Sydney is currently Australia’s biggest city because the official boundaries used to draw the city limits are arbitrary. The official definition of Greater Sydney stretches all the way to Lake Macquarie, about 120
I have noted repeatedly that Michael Hartnett at BofA, the most famous asset strategist on the planet, has a blind spot when it comes to geopolitics. Today we get another dose. Midterms not “regime change” election, e.g. Thatcher/Reagan in 1980 = end of inflation/start of bond bull, BREXIT/Trump in 2016 = end of globalization =
War headlines today: US bombs three Iranian tankers. Iran bombs three tankers and three cargo ships in response. Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei is set to announce a new exclusion zone in the strait. US says it will bomb the strait forever. Israel continues to flatten Southern Lebanon. Russia/Ukraine peace talks
