Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
A little over a year ago, One Nation was polling in the same range that it had been for years, in the low to mid single digits at a federal level, only marginally removed from the 6.4% of the vote they achieved at the last federal election. At the time, there was only a small
We now have the immigration policies (“cuts”) from Labor, the Coalition, and One Nation, which all miss one vital ingredient to ensure that cuts to net overseas migration (NOM) are enduring. Below is a quick summary of each party’s policies, followed by an explanation of the common problem. Labor: Labor has announced the weakest immigration
The federal government and renewable energy advocates continually argue that renewables are the cheapest energy source. The latest Intergenerational Report, released last month, even claimed that the average Australian household will save 40% on energy costs between 2030 and 2050 because of the renewable energy revolution. Yet, when you scratch beneath the surface of this
Anyone would think that the Albanese government was actually planning a gas reservation policy. As we know, the idiots have already gutted it by making all its supply provisions depend on ministerial decisions rather than statutory enforcement. This change makes it functionally exactly the same as the existing Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM), which
I explained on Monday why Australia’s inflation problem is primarily domestically driven, in response to Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ claims that the war in the Middle East, not excessive government spending, was driving inflation. Former RBA governor Phil Lowe and other economists last week debunked Chalmers’ claims, insisting that excessive federal government spending is driving up
You can’t tell from the headline index but iron nore is now falling at good clip/ The key is to adjust for abnormal shipping rates. We are now sitting at about $85. My latest Simandou model has a flow rate of 90mt per month by year-end 2027. This trend extrapolates the 2026 cadence, which is
Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) must win the award for Australia’s worst-ever transport infrastructure project. Former Premier Daniel Andrews announced the project on the eve of the 2018 state election, proposing a $50 billion cost. The SRL was a “captain’s call” by Andrews and was never disclosed to Victoria’s transport department before its announcement because
DXY and EUR, overbought and oversold, have finally reversed. AUD is following. Oil and gold are stalled. Metals are fine. Miners too. EM stocks look more bullish. The junk crash has paused. Even the long-end rout has paused. NDX is flying. SPX ATH. Europe is making room for the AI rollout. So, the reversal of
War headlines today: Three Hormuz attacks in last 48 hours. Houthis bomb Saudi airports, refineries. Mecca agreement activated, largely for defensive forces. Dated Brent is still backed up. Hormuz crossings appear to be OK. However, we are building in higher distribution costs. US and Singapore gasoil prices stopped falling. US fuel inventories aren’t pretty. There
On Tuesday, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor unveiled the Coalition’s plan to slash the rate of net overseas migration to 100,000 for its first two years in government, before it was later allowed to rise to 160,000 per year. Taking these figures purely at face value, it is a far more sustainable intake than the one
The Coalition has announced its long-awaited migration policy, which you can read in full via this link. The key points are that the Coalition has promised to cut net overseas migration (NOM) to 100,000 over the first two years of the next parliamentary term, after which NOM will increase to 130,000 in year three and
Last week’s 25 bp interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank has dealt a hammer blow to consumer sentiment. Westpac’s monthly consumer sentiment survey fell 4.7% to 80.4, with responses during the survey week showing a “very sharp pull-back after the RBA rate hike”. “The sentiment read across the 40% surveyed after the RBA decision
Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has dashed hopes of any new cost-of-living relief, warning that his Government is about to be hit with billions of dollars in extra costs to service its debt. “You will see in the mid-year budget update a magnitude of some billions of dollars, unfortunately”, Chalmers told the media on Sunday. “There
Anthropic is concerned. Frontier AI giant Anthropic has declared that artificial intelligence poses an “industrial-scale threat’’ to Australia and could reduce “demand for human work’’. As a parliamentary inquiry probes OpenAI’s government data hacks and the AI industry’s creative “cannibalisation”, Anthropic has called for taxpayer support to retain, retain or redeploy workers whose jobs are
The Australian Greens elected a new leader, Senator David Shoebridge, last week after former leader Larissa Waters announced she was stepping away from the role because of chronic kidney disease. Shoebridge defeated former deputy leader Mehreen Faruqi — who quit her role to run for top spot — and the party’s Senate business manager Sarah
DXY is refusing to push higer on the tumbling EUR. AUD has found a bottom for now. Gold is irked by yields. Given Yanbu shut today, oil is notably weak. Metals bounced. Miners too. EM stocks suddenly look OK. Junk is horrible, but it’s trying. The long-end pushed higher despite lower energy. It’s still not
War headlines today. Houthis close Taiz bulge, lose Mocha. Houthis bomb Yanbu pipeline again and another refinery. Houthis bomb tanker in Bab al-Mandeb. Iran/US talks continue. Brent dropped 2% anyway to around $100. This is a good sign that enough oil is flowing through Hormuz, even if the rumour is that it has slowed over
When the United States and Israel kicked off the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf back in February, it set off a chain of events that will continue to echo around the world long after the conflict has been consigned to the history books. For over eight decades since the Second World War, nations around
According to The Australian’s Mackenzie Scott, more than 102,000 Australians have used the federal government’s 5% first-home buyer (FHB) deposit scheme since it was expanded on 1 October 2025. Analysis by realestate.com.au suggests about 1,143 households that took the offer of buying a home with a deposit of just 5% were likely in negative equity
The 2026 Intergenerational Report, released last month, forecasts that the federal budget will remain in deficit for the next 40 years, with tax receipts falling short of expenditure. A major headwind for the federal budget is the expected decline in corporate tax receipts from the mining sector amid lower commodity prices. The Australian Taxation Office’s
If you are sceptical about Australia’s energy transition, which I am less so than LVO, these charts will really piss you off. The following data uses EDGAR, the EU carbon tracker, World Bank and Climate Change Authority data. How is Australia’s gross carbon emissions abatement going? We are an absolute bludger. How is it that
According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) leading house price index, which is used by the Reserve Bank, home prices nationally have collapsed back to late 2017 levels in real terms following a near five-year decline: New data from Cotality likewise shows that New Zealand’s house price crash has reasserted itself following
Iron ore is crashing. Except it isn’t. The freight premium is coming out. C5 has dropped $6 from the peak in the last few weeks. Adjusted for normal freight costs, CFR is roughly stable around $87. Forward indicators remain poor. Steel demand is pancaked. Steel production improved to catastrophic. Iron ore is growing at ports
Treasurer “Spin” Jim Chalmers defended the federal government’s inflation record ahead of Tuesday’s 0.25% rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Chalmers insisted at a press conference with Finance Minister Katy Gallagher on Monday that the war in the Middle East, not government spending, was driving inflation. Spin Jim also insisted that other
TME with the update on market positioning. The upside pain trade Markets have spent weeks preparing for more pain. Positioning has been slashed, policy pessimism is near a 30-year extreme, tech is being sold and Russell exposure is washed out. Yet equities have refused to properly crack. Now rates may be starting to offer the
