Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Earlier this week, I exposed Labor MP Dr Andrew Leigh’s bald-faced immigration lies. On three separate occasions over the past six months, Leigh has erroneously claimed that the Albanese government has reduced net overseas migration by 40% from its peak under the former Coalition government. Yet, the actual migration data shows unequivocally that immigration has
Australia’s construction sector experienced a wave of construction insolvencies following the COVID-19 pandemic, as illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro: Australiaâs post-pandemic construction insolvency wave was driven primarily by fixed-price contracts colliding with soaring material and labour costs, supply chain delays, rising interest rates, and weakened cash flow. This combination of factors was
TME with the charts. Crowded And Running Out Of Fuel Price is pressing into key resistance, flows that powered the move are starting to fade, and positioning is getting crowded fast. The tape feels bullish, but under the hood things arenât confirming in the same way. This is where it shifts from chase to risk
The federal government will introduce new eligibility criteria for the National Disability Insurance Scheme as part of changes announced by Health Minister Mark Butler on Wednesday. All 760,000 current participants will be reassessed using the new criteria, and the government aims to remove 160,000 people from the scheme by 2030. Butler says the NDIS was
It is not easy keeping pace with President Donald Trump’s destruction of the world as we know it. In recent months, he has effectively torn up NATO, launched his anarcho-imperialism worldwide and, now, blockaded Persian Gulf oil from the world. This lurching around, spilling aircraft carriers into dark corners, is not some game of five-dimensional chess. It is
Australiaâs federal budget uses two main deficit measures, and they differ because they treat certain transactions differentlyâespecially asset sales, loans, and offâbudget funds. The headline balance captures all cash flows in and out of the Commonwealth government, including: dayâtoâday spending tax revenue capital spending asset purchases and sales loans issued and repaid equity injections transactions
Due in large part to geopolitical tensions and worries about energy security, fuel scab Albo appears set to kybosh the gas tax. Government sources claim that the consequences of Donald Trump’s battle with Iran have created a precarious global fuel environment, making decision-makers cautious of actions that would sour relations with important international allies. Australia
It’s best to read this article with the music playing. Yesterday’s Iran War developments were not encouraging. Donald Trump gave the order for American military to attack boats planting mines in the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean. The oil will be sold off,
When evaluating any government policy, a fundamental question arises: What is the policy’s objective? Only by understanding the policy’s intended purpose can it be judged. This is where Australia’s current migration policy utterly fails to clear even the first hurdle of a meaningful assessment. Is it meant to boost productivity, end skills shortages and help
I noted on Thursday how in 2000-01, Australiaâs regions accounted for 35% of the population. As of 2024-25, the latest available data from the ABS shows that the regionsâ share of Australiaâs population has declined to 32%. The Centre for Population’s 2025 Population Statement projects that Australia’s population will grow by 13.4 million people over
By Dr Cameron Murray from Fresh Economic Thinking I explain how a scaled variable royalty does the job of a super-profits tax while avoiding the accounting trickery in order to share risk and get a better public return from resources. Have you heard that Norway taxes their gas at 78% of profits, but Australiaâs offshore gas pays
On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data showing that Victorians pay the highest state and local taxes in the nation. As illustrated below, state and local government taxes in Victoria were $6,605 per capita in 2024-25, $582 (9.7%) higher than the state and territory average. Victoria’s state and local government taxes have
In the Trump dimension, stocks only go up, all by themselves. TME with the charts. SPX Pushes Higher⊠Alone SPX keeps grinding higher⊠but the cross-asset picture is starting to diverge. Oil, vol, rates, and macro are all telling a different story, with gaps widening across the board. These setups tend to resolve one way
The Australia Institute’s senior economist, Matt Grudnoff, has written another article blaming the capital gains tax (CGT) discount for Australia’s housing affordability woes, while absolving the role played by excessive immigration-driven population growth. According to Grudnoff, “the CGT discount is the culprit for big increases in house prices in the past two decades. After it
As usual, a day after the Parliament heard sense from policy advocates, the gas cartel was unleashed. Producers and industry groups warned that higher export levies could deter investment, reduce domestic supply, and strain international trade relationships. The Queensland Resources Council argued that, amid global energy uncertainty and supply shocks linked to geopolitical tensions, stable
The flash PMI is out, and it has stabilised. Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index: 50.1 Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m % qr/qr (Mar: 46.6) Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index: 50.3 (Mar: 46.3) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 51.0 (Mar: 49.8) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 48.2 (Mar: 49.4) After a month
The federal government touted the expanded 5% home deposit scheme, introduced on 1 October 2025, as an affordability measure. However, analysts, including me, cautioned that such demand-side interventions are usually self-defeating with respect to affordability, as they drive up property prices. Cotality’s latest housing chart pack illustrated this point. As shown below, prices for homes
Leading Iranian figures are criticising Donald Trump’s actions and threats, but there is still little indication that the US-Iran conflict can be resolved. Earlier this morning, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on social media: “The Islamic Republic of Iran has welcomed dialogue and agreement and continues to do so.” The biggest barriers to real discussions
Shortly after the war in the Middle East began and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was reduced to a relative trickle, the flow of global jet fuel exports was swiftly roughly halved, as flows from the Persian Gulf ceased and the impact of China’s near-ban on fuel exports began to bite. Now that the
Regional Australia stands to lose from the continuation of the âBig Australiaâ mass migration policy. In 2000-01, Australiaâs regions accounted for 35% of the population. As of 2024-25, the latest available data from the ABS shows that the regionsâ share of Australiaâs population has declined to 32%. The Centre for Population’s 2025 Population Statement projects
JPM answers. Iranâs onshore storage capacity is roughly 86 million barrels and is currently about 54% full (around 47 mb), leaving approximately 40 mb of working capacityâequivalent to about 22 days of exports. In addition, roughly four Iran-linked VLCCs remain inside the Strait of Hormuz. If loaded, they could carry about 8 million barrels, extending
According to 9News, the upcoming federal government is likely to see the Albanese government revert the capital gains tax (CGT) on property investment to the system in place before 1999, which taxed real capital gains (i.e., after adjusting for CPI inflation) at one’s marginal tax rate. Such a reform would represent a marked change from
When the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) was first implemented in 2016, we warned that it would draw an army of scammers and middlemen looking for a piece of the multibillion-dollar honey pot on offer. After all, we’d seen comparable rorting in the private vocational education and training (VET) and pink batts systems, as well
Australian residential construction costs have soared by more than 40% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the average cost of building a dwelling in Australia has increased by 74% since the end of 2019, from $328,300 to $570,650 as at the end of 2025: The average cost of building a detached
Gojeera Takaichi may be here any minute, but she faces a growing riot in Parliament House in favour of a gas tax. A proposal to introduce a 25% tax on Australiaâs gas exports is being examined by a Senate inquiry, sparking a heated debate over fairness, economic impact, and energy security. Former Greens leader Adam
