Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Following Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected trimmed-mean inflation by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which led several major banks to forecast imminent interest rate hikes, the ABS on Thursday reported strong household spending in July. Household spending rose by 1.1% in July to be 7.0% higher year-over-year, the strongest annual spending growth since June 2023. Both discretionary
The latest version of AEMO’s flagship report, the 2026 ISP released in June, noted the following about offshore wind [my emphasis]: “Supported by government policies, 9 GW of offshore wind is projected to be online by 2040. However, as offshore wind is two-thirds more expensive than onshore wind to build and connect, no more is
In this week’s podcast, we ask whether Scott Bessent is losing control of the U.S. bond market — as long-term Treasury yields surge despite government intervention. We unpack what’s driving the bond selloff, from soaring deficits and a $40 trillion national debt to inflation risks and growing Treasury supply, and whether Bessent’s attempts to push
A peace deal has broken out in Australia’s conflict over power for data centres. The Albanese government has reached a settlement with Queensland and the Northern Territory on regulations governing the rapidly growing data centre industry, allowing both jurisdictions to use gas (and coal, though that won’t happen behind the metre). Queensland and the NT
It took Melbourne 170 years to grow to a population of 3.7 million in 2005. In 2003, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its Population Projections 2002 to 2101, which included a baseline (Series B) forecast of Australia’s population reaching 26.4 million by 2051, based on an assumed net overseas migration (NOM) of 100,000
TME asks the question. The semis contradiction The semis tape is sending a very different message from the fundamentals. Credit stress has picked up, token prices have collapsed and SOX has been losing ground relative to both software and MAG7. Yet underneath the price action, the fundamental AI infrastructure cycle remains remarkably strong. Cloud economics
Below is a chart based on Education.gov.au data that shows the share of student enrolments by course: As you can see, the most popular course choice for international students is commerce, which accounted for 34.3% of enrolments in 2024, compared with 14.2% of domestic enrolments. Universities also like selling commerce degrees to international students because
The bank is Goldman Sachs, and it is hard to argue against. The bank notes that the headline monthly CPI rose 1.0% month over month, with year-over-year growth dropping 30 basis points to 3.5% yoy, above both our and market estimates (GSe: +3.1% yoy; BBG: +3.3% yoy). Worse, the ABS monthly trimmed mean measure grew
News on the war is benign. Trump said his measures “are effective” and he is “not in a hurry” to do a deal while doing the TACO on the measures with Gulf states.\ Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, says the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Qatar’s Prime Minister and
Victorian Premier Ben Carroll has confirmed that the 26km Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) East between Cheltenham and Box Hill will proceed with construction by 2035. Carroll aims to save $2 billion on the project’s cost, now expected to be $34.5 billion, by scaling back infrastructure, including removing underground interchanges at Box Hill and Glen Waverley,
As polling in the realm of Australian federal politics increasingly shows the distribution of the primary vote as a three-horse race, many have been left wondering how One Nation has come from relative obscurity to at times lead the pack in terms of primary vote. As part of a report authored by Labor strategist Bruce
People often wonder just how long a “temporary” immigrant can legally stay in Australia. For the determined stayer, the answer is generally around 15 years. And that’s if the immigrant is single. Add marriage or a child into the mix, and a temporary immigrant’s Australian journey can be stretched out to 20 years. And until
This week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes were unapologetically hawkish, with inflation risks tilted to the upside and the RBA considering a rate hike at its August meeting. Wednesday’s CPI inflation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed the RBA’s caution, with headline CPI at 3.5% (versus 3.2% expected) and the policy-relevant
TME with the charts. Short term stretched Gold has gone vertical, leaving several of its usual macro relationships behind. The question now is whether this is simply an overshoot that needs correcting, or a sign that the structural gold trade has entered a new phase. Near-term risks are building, but getting outright bearish may still
I argued on Monday that, instead of importing hundreds of thousands of migrants each year to address labour shortages, Australia should abolish the income test for the aged pension to encourage more seniors to enter the workforce. Despite two decades of extreme immigration, which saw Australia’s population grow 2.5 times faster than the OECD average,
Australia’s worst-kept secret is out. The energy transition is meaningfully behind. At the current build rate, we will hit about 75% renewables by 2030, versus the planned 82%, a shortfall of roughly 8 GW of wind and solar (mostly the former). AEMO puts the shortfall at up to 12 GW. Basically: solar is largely on
On Tuesday, Bathla Group — one of western Sydney’s biggest home builders — entered voluntary administration after running out of cash, leaving $3.6 billion in private‑credit debt, 2,000 homes mid‑construction, and 15,000 planned dwellings in limbo. The failure threatens to disrupt the Albanese government’s national housing targets and could trigger major losses across dozens of non‑bank
There’s a little steel squeeze underway in China. It doesn’t make much sense given production is weak. And inventories are high, margins low and exports weak. Order books are poor. Goldman. Orderbook trend: The forward orderbook trend of most steel mills declined MoM in August, and saw weaker than normal seasonality. High-frequency weekly data suggest
War headlines today. The US Navy “removed and/or detonated” all mines in the Strait of Hormuz’s international waters, according to US President Donald Trump. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has said that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, dismissing claims that ships are passing through it as “baseless”. Significant progress has been made, according
When the Albanese government introduced its expanded 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers in October last year, the number of individuals and properties eligible for the scheme rose dramatically. The price caps for homes to be eligible for the scheme rose by as much as $600,000 compared with where they had been on September
The ‘Yes in My Backyard’ (YIMBY) movement argues that Australia’s crisis can be solved by upzoning our cities to allow high-rise apartments in more locations. They believe that blanket approval of high-density apartments will magically increase supply, ignoring how the development system actually works. State planning reforms have also fast‑tracked high‑rise towers, with the government
I have warned repeatedly that Australia’s energy system is on a collision course with physics and reality. To recap, coal is currently the backbone of Australia’s electricity grid, accounting for 58% of NEM generation over the past three months: The latest version of AEMO’s flagship report, the 2026 ISP released in June, showed that more than
As has been well documented, Australian dwelling completions are tracking 27% (112,400) below the National Housing Accord’s target of 1.2 million homes over five years, which requires a construction run rate of 240,000 homes a year. The outlook has also worsened recently amid soaring construction costs and the steep house price correction, which has made
TME has the latest on the war for markets. The Great Rotation Gets Violent Gold and BTC are seeing outright panic buying as positioning catches up with the move, while the other side of the market is starting to look much less comfortable. Tech is being aggressively de-grossed, semis have broken key support and credit
Last month, Maiy Azize, Deputy Director of Anglicare Australia and a spokesperson for Everybody’s Home, posted a strawman article at The Point (The Australia Institute’s new propaganda outlet), arguing that it is “wrong” to blame migrants for the nation’s housing crisis. I dissected Azize’s arguments in detail and pointed out that she conveniently left out
