Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Australian tenants have faced a torrid period since the pandemic, with advertised rents nationally soaring by more than 40% over the past five years. Gerard Burg, Cotality’s Head of Research, noted last month that “the median rent has risen by over $200 per week in the last five years” and that households were “paying a
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, examines just how bad the Middle East oil shock could get — as disruptions spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices climb above $100 a barrel. We explore how much global supply is really at risk, what happens if the conflict continues
Yesterday, LVO argued that coal use is still rising using this chart. I will make the basic point that LVO overlooked: in economics, the rate of change matters more than the absolute amount. In those terms, coal use is clearly slowing fast, notwithstanding the recent surge in AI-related demand and post-COVID shocks The IEA put out
Australians face soaring interest repayments on government debt due to a combination of growing debt loads and rising interest rates. As a result, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) forecasts that interest costs will rise from 4.1% of government revenue in 2024-25 to 6.2% in 2029-30: The PBO has forecast that the combined debt of the
There was a time, very recently, when the Trump campaign to contain China was working smoothly. Chinese property was crashing; Beijing was panicking as trade wars disrupted its economic model, capital fled, and CNY fell. China’s economic future as a rising hegemon looked grim. Enter Trump 2.0 and his anarcho-imperialism, and the game has changed.
Realestate.com.au has a virtual monopoly on listing homes for sale or rent. If you are a vendor looking to sell your home, you have little choice but to list it on Realestate.com.au to ensure buyers can find it. Realestate.com.au often charges high, price-discriminatory fees based on a suburb’s value and popularity. However, Realestate.com.au does not
DXY roared as the Fed hiked. AUD was crushed. Oil eased but still looks poised. Woe is gold. No immediate growth worries in metals. Big miners on the other hand… When the Fed hikes, EM panics. Junk spreads are warming up for a legit puke. The long end rallied a little, but Fed dovishness
War headlines today. The Israeli military bombs Lebanon. Saudi Arabia says a drone launched by the Houthis towards Mecca was intercepted, while the Houthis call it a “nauseating lie.” Is this a classic false flag to trigger the Mecca Agreement? Houthis target oil facilities in Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port and Khamis Mushait airbase. But is
As the debate surrounding the right level of migration into Australia continues to be one of the defining issues of this parliamentary term, there continues to be vast differences in opinion on the impact of immigration on wages growth between various policymakers. On one hand, Deputy Treasury Secretary Jenny Wilkinson stated in September 2021 that:
Property developer Bathla Group entered voluntary administration late last month after running out of cash, leaving $3.6 billion in private‑credit debt, 2,000 homes mid‑construction, and 15,000 planned dwellings in limbo. Around 40 private credit funds are owed more than $3 billion, including PAG, Balmain, Trilogy, Centuria Bass, Ray White Capital, and La Trobe Financial. Larry Kaine,
By Deep T, Editing Gunnamatta A critical examination of a $4.4 trillion compulsory savings experiment 1. The Taxpayer Is Subsidising Wealthy Superannuants Superannuation contributions and earnings are taxed at a concessional flat rate of 15% — well below most marginal income tax rates. These tax concessions are forecast to cost the federal budget $61.7
Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen told ABC’s 7.30 Report on Monday night that “I never quite bought all the hype on green hydrogen”, despite wasting billions of taxpayer dollars on it. Video by Osher Feldman Bowen’s claim is hilarious given that the Albanese government’s $23 billion Future Made in Australia (FMIA) scheme has set
Good news, but the consequences are unknown. The US Supreme Court refused to clear the Postal Service to enforce new restrictions on mail-in ballots for the congressional midterm elections, rebuffing the Trump administration’s request to intervene after several states launched early voting. The justices’ decision on Monday came after North Carolina and Alabama began mailing thousands of ballots to voters and
The ANU Migration Hub’s Alan Gamlen is one of the nation’s key purveyors of immigration propaganda. While admitting that temporary visa numbers are too high, Gamlen has lambasted One Nation’s planned cuts to temporary visa numbers back to 2017 levels, which would deliver several years of negative net overseas migration (NOM), claiming that it would wreck
New yuan loans for August were out Monday and slowed sharply. Bank loans of RMB 300bn missed the Bloomberg consensus of RMB 404bn. Total social financing was RMB 1660bn, versus Bloomberg’s consensus of RMB 2122 billion. TSF stock growth (or Broad Credit, as I call it) was 7.2% year over year in August compared to
In 2023, federal Infrastructure Minister Catherine King rejected Qatar Airways’ bid to add 21 weekly flights to Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane. The decision only became public in late July 2023, after airlines and industry groups began questioning why the application had stalled. King signed the rejection on 10 July 2023 but did not announce it
Chinese output data came out yesterday. Industrial production allegedly grew by 5.2%. Turning to steel, output was down 3.7% year-to-date. Pig iron is down 3.1% year-to-date. EAF is once again heading for extinction. Real estate is falling relentlessly. Starts are kaput. Floor area under construction still has far to fall. Prices are still falling, with
War headlines today. Oil flows via Yanbu pipeline are expected to restart within days, according to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Yeah, but what volume? Not enough. Saudis cancel September-loading crude cargoes to Europe. Following an attack in the Strait of Hormuz, Oman’s navy rescues 23 seamen. Attacks on tankers appear to be moving into
Following the release of the latest ABS Labour Account data earlier this month, Treasurer Jim Chalmers took to social media to laud the result, stating that: This much is true: when job growth is broken down by sector, the private sector is responsible for the overwhelming majority. However, the reality is unfortunately quite different from
Victorian Premier Ben Carroll is failing to cut through with voters, as new polling shows state debt is now one of the top concerns heading into the next election. Victorian voters are increasingly anxious about state debt, the cost of the Suburban Rail Loop, and rising interest rates — and this anxiety is dragging down Premier
Javier Blas, energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg, posted the following chart on X (Twitter) showing how the International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently underestimated global coal demand, which is running around 1 billion tonnes higher (~9%) than the agency had expected only five years ago: “The forecasting error equals to the anual demand of
Cotality’s daily dwelling values index shows that dwelling values have declined by 5.3% from their 10 April peak across the five major capitals, led by Sydney (-7.7%) and Melbourne (-6.9%): New analysis from Cotality shows that one in two homes purchased in Sydney and Melbourne in the past 12 months now sell for less than their
If you are like me, you’ve been obsessed with questions of Artificial Intelligence (AI) epistemology for some time. This is vital to understanding the economic peril/promise the technology holds. I long ago concluded that AI is like some kind of super bogan: an information management system that makes crude errors, but less so than its
A nation that can’t make steel isn’t a nation. To wit. Hundreds of workers will lose their jobs due to a decision to shut down the blast furnace at South Australia’s Whyalla steelworks. The key piece of infrastructure, which helps convert iron ore into steel, has been deemed beyond repair. The parasitic Labor government has
In the 1990s and early 2000s, Victoria’s roads were considered the best among the eastern states, which made sense given its higher population density, as it has the nation’s second-largest population occupying a relatively small landmass. I lived in Canberra from 2003 to 2006, working at the Australian Treasury. We drove between Canberra and Melbourne
