Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
With the release of the latest auction clearance rate data from SQM Research, it was revealed that Sydney’s auction clearance rate had fallen to the lowest levels since their records began in February 2020 (excluding public holidays and the Christmas season) Of all the various providers of auction clearance rate data, SQM’s is the gold
Australia’s property market is facing its biggest price correction in more than 40 years, with values down by 7.1% across the five major markets since early April, according to Cotality. At the current pace of decline, the housing market should break the record by early December. The housing market outlook remains dire, with for-sale listings
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the September labour force survey, and it was a shocker. The headline unemployment rate climbed another 0.1% to 4.7% – the highest reading since October 2021 – while all of the sub-indicators were soft. The following table from the ABS summarises the key components from the survey: Total
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, is joined by Cameron Murray of Fresh Economic Thinking to challenge one of the biggest assumptions about Australia’s ageing population — that more retirees inevitably mean fewer workers supporting more dependants. We unpack why traditional age-based dependency ratios no longer reflect how people live
The guy can’t walk a straight line on immigration, for the love of god. Our opposition to immigration is primordial – deeply instinctive. But we mustn’t let it blind us to the benefits immigration brings. Don’t forget that, without immigration, our low natural increase (births minus deaths) thanks to a fertility rate (number of kids
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest board monetary policy meeting minutes, released publicly on Tuesday, largely dashed hopes that interest rates might begin to fall early next year. At the meeting, the RBA raised the official cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.60%. The minutes were decisively more hawkish than Governor Bullock’s unscripted
Iron ore futures are grinding relentlessly lower. My latest freight-adjusted CFR figure is just above $82. The Pilbara’s marginal iron ore players are getting whacked. FMG is right at major monthly long-term support. MIN also had bad news on lithium yesterday. Maybe a late-year seasonal rally is coming, but if it happens, that’ll be a
Sydney is nearing a double-digit housing price decline, with Cotality’s daily dwelling values index recording a 9.3% fall since the market peak on 19 March: The trend in value growth has also turned down, with values declining by 1.4% over the past 28 days: Louis Christopher, founder and managing director of SQM Research, says Sydney’s
DXY has the bid. AUD is chopping wood after the fall. Risk is lower. The twins of doom are approaching the hell cross. Metals are not exactly euphoric. Big miners appear to be in trouble. Peripheral equity is letting go. Junk is breaking again. This time with the long-end bid. Hello growth shock! Stocks and
War headlines today. Two ships sink in Hormuz as attacks continue by mine and missile. IRGC claims it attacks 5-6 ships per night. Ukraine bombs two more refineries. Brent held overnight, but it has a bullish ascending triangle as it fills the big gap up. Diesel hope is extinguished. Hormuz attack cadence is unmistakable. According
As the battle surrounding the right level of migration into Australia continues to be waged from the halls of power in Canberra to the digital battlegrounds of cyberspace, the example of Canada is often cited as proof that dramatically lower migration can be pursued and does not need to result in significant economic downside, at
The Australian labour market is characterised by an exploitable class of temporary migrants, a situation that is generally thought to be undesirable. A 2016 Senate Education and Employment References Committee report documented systemic abuses in Australia’s visa system for foreign workers. In 2017, the Fair Work Ombudsman revealed that foreign workers were involved in more
A new Redbridge/Accent Research poll suggests the Victorian Coalition is increasingly well placed to win government at the November election, with support consolidating around Liberal leader Jess Wilson and Labor still struggling to recover from years of voter dissatisfaction. While a hung parliament remains possible, the pollsters believe a Coalition majority government is becoming more
The great gas schmozzle continues. The government has sought to balance domestic gas supply pressures with the interests of Australia’s multibillion-dollar gas industry and the nation’s major overseas trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and China, which are major consumers of locally produced LNG. Following consultations in Australia and overseas, the government has agreed
Brisbane is now in the midst of a deep house price correction. Brisbane home values have declined by 5.7%, with the 28-day run rate tracking at -1.2%: Brisbane’s auction clearance rate is also the weakest among the three largest capital cities, tracking below 40% for 19 consecutive weeks: Meanwhile, old listings keep piling up. As
TME with stocks today. The daily market pulse The cracks in the tech trade are getting harder to ignore. Deutsche Bank warns that tech’s relative risk/reward is becoming increasingly asymmetric, while the memory meltdown is spreading into Nasdaq positioning. Korea is flashing even more serious warning signs, with KOSPI breaking key technical levels and volatility
Australia’s eastern states are facing a massive rise in their debt burdens, as the following chart from Alex Joiner at IFM Investors illustrates: As a result, ratings agency Moody’s in July forecast that interest payments on state debt would climb by 2030, owing to rising debt loads alongside higher global bond yields: However, the outlook
Yesterday’s NAB business survey was pretty ugly. It shows all major components stalling, including employment, which turned outright negative for the first time since 2020. Confidence ouch. Demand crumble. Led by the mighty Hellbourne. Oddly, capacity utilisation is still above the long-term average. Not for long if the rest of the survey is right. Cost-push
War headlines today. Houthis continue bombardment of Saudi pansy. US, UK, and the Mecca Agreement all threaten the Houthis and do nothing. Another tanker hit in Hormuz. Ukraine says no to the energy deal. Everybody hates the Houthis, but nobody is willing to do anything about it. They have not blocked Bab al-Mandeb, so why
In the modern Australian vocabulary, the term “third world” has generally been used with a negative connotation to describe part of the developing world, despite the term’s origin as meaning a nation not allied with the capitalist or communist blocs during the Cold War. Whether you take the term by its original definition or the
Earlier this month, housing minister Clare O’Neil boasted that the government’s expanded 5% deposit scheme, introduced on 1 October 2025, had ‘helped’ more than 100,000 people into the housing market. In reality, the scheme lured 100,000 first home buyers into debt to buy near the top of the market. Buyers have since endured four interest
The federal budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) aimed to reduce investor demand for established housing, lowering prices without harming housing supply. Beginning July 1, 2027, investors can fully negative-gear only newly built homes. Effective July 1, 2027, the 50% CGT discount will be replaced by cost-based indexation (taxing only real
Won’t find a kind word from me about specufestors. But I am now wondering if we need hate speech laws to protect them against the Greens. Victorian landlords would need a license to rent out their homes under a new policy call from the state’s Greens party as an election looms. The party noted it
CBA’s economics team has produced an analysis of the AI data centre boom across Australia, based on the latest construction data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). In the June quarter of 2026 alone, the data centre project pipeline grew by 20.1%. This followed a 62.6% surge in the March quarter and places the
New South Wales can see the writing on the wall. NSW will use a scheme designed to subsidise the development of renewable energy generation to build new gas power plants as early as next year, a decision that puts the country’s largest state at odds with the Albanese government’s reluctance to underwrite new gas generation.
