Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
By Dr Cameron Murray People simply assume an older population means more economic dependants. But the data shows falling economic dependency despite rising age dependency. I have written many times about why fears about ageing are misplaced. For starters, we have panicked about it for a century. Also, the reality is that we aren’t adding
International Reading: Credit card delinquencies approach Great Recession levels – Market Place Gen Z Is Moving Money From Stocks to Sports Betting in Wealth Plans – Bloomberg A shocking 92 percent of US adults not going to the doctor because it’s too expensive – The Independent Most Americans would rather have $1,000 today than $1,100
In this week’s podcast, we’re examining the investment fallout from a potentially historic El Niño — from droughts, floods and crop disruptions to rising food prices and renewed inflationary pressure. With El Niño strengthening and forecasts pointing to a potentially severe event, we explore which markets and sectors could be hit hardest, where opportunities may
According to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, home values have declined by 3.2% from their peak across the five major capital cities. So far, this decline has been driven by Sydney (-5.8%) and Melbourne (-5.6%), with smaller falls of 1% or less recorded across the mid-sized capitals. The build-up of for-sale listings across the mid-sized
Readers will know that my base case for the coming midterms gauntlet is a disaster for the American republic. Polling indicates that both the House and Senate will swing to the Democrats, opening the way for the mass impeachment of the Trump cabinet. The Senate is closer and is the key, as it manages the
Housing Minister Clare O’Neil has defended the federal government’s 5% home deposit scheme amid renewed criticism from Coalition counterpart Andrew Bragg. A spokesman for O’Neil says the scheme has a default rate of less than 0.01%, while it has helped more than 260,000 Australians to buy their own home. Meanwhile, Treasury documents that Bragg has
Gas cartel HQ is busy massaging Japanese norks for panic. ….as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese grapples with the fallout from his comments last month about a gift of melons from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi…Trump has combined a charm offensive on Takaichi with typical economic coercion involving tariffs to push Tokyo to invest more heavily
According to the latest version of AEMO’s flagship report, the 2026 ISP released in June, over 5 GW of coal is scheduled to close in 2029: By 2035, Australia is scheduled to have lost around 15 GW of coal capacity, almost all from Victoria and NSW. Given the challenges that evolving and growing electricity demand
TME with the hilarity. Still Not Long Enough The chase is spreading. Tech is breaking higher with positioning still light, Korea remains aggressively under-owned, and retail is piling into gold miners. Yet the supposed epicenter of the AI bubble, Mag 7, is neither crowded nor expensive relative to history. Meanwhile, Brazil is moving the other
Victorians are unfortunately caught between a rock and a hard place on the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL). When Jacinta Allan took over as Victorian Premier from Dan Andrews in September 2023, she had the opportunity to follow expert advice and abandon the SRL Project, which had badly failed all independent cost-benefit analyses. Instead, Allan doubled
Murdoch is on the warpath. Banking giant ANZ’s revised forecast this week that capital city home prices would fall 10.6 per cent from peak to trough in the current slump – led lower by Sydney sinking 14.5 per cent and Melbourne falling 12.8 per cent – is the most dire prediction made following the May
The war newsflow was pretty grim. Houthis hit Saudi’s Jizan refinery with two drones. More than half of Yemen’s population does not have enough food to eat. According to US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, the US may keep the blockade on Iran “indefinitely.” But the clangour goes to Professor Pape. Majid Shakeri, an adviser
When the latest Australian wages data was released, it revealed yet another quarter of falls in real terms. Overall, since peaking in the June quarter of 2020, real wages have lost 7.8 percentage points of the 17.1% growth seen in real wages since the inception of the ABS Wage Price Index in 1997, with 16
Without an increase in output (GDP) per hour worked (i.e., labour productivity), Australia’s economy cannot grow at a robust pace without causing inflation. Australian living standards also stagnate. I outlined why in my recent expert testimony to the Senate Committee on Productivity. You can read my opening statement here and watch my testimony here. Australia’s
Earlier this year, Cotality published the following chart showing the biggest national declines in dwelling values over the past 40 years. According to Cotality, the largest decline was in 2017-19, when values fell by 8.2% amid credit tightening, fears over changes to negative gearing, and the banking royal commission. Across the five largest capital city
Some argue that Chinese COâ‚‚ emissions are already falling. The Global Carbon Budget margin of error for 2025 allows for a fall. The second derivative trend is obvious. Emissions intensity is collapsing and will likely roll over in the next year or two because China’s production of renewables, gas, and nuclear remains vast. The IEA
In September 2024, Matt Thistlethwaite, the federal assistant minister for immigration, told the Sydney Institute that “for many decades Australia hasn’t had a migration plan” and that “Australia’s migration policies have lacked direction and purpose”. “Migration’s been unresponsive to Australia’s needs”, Thistlethwaite said. “It has provided marginal economic benefit and hasn’t enhanced labour productivity. It
Accounting firm EY has released its annual State Budget Monitor, which forecasts that state debt will continue to rise, led by Victoria. EY attributes part of the blow-out in debt to rising public servant wage costs, with growth in the number of public servants (29%) more than doubling the growth in the population (14%): “Employee
Sometimes it’s good when the international press comes calling on an Australian issue. Sometimes it’s bad. Like Bloomberg today. Once considered too remote and expensive, Beetaloo has gained significance as Australia faces looming east-coast gas shortages. Developers estimate the resource could be worth more than US$6 trillion at current Asian LNG prices. Tamboran ultimately targets
Pilbara strikes, CMRG shanangins, and a little bounce in steel are giving the ferrous complex a meek relief rally. The newsflow remains grim as roaches crawl across the market. A Reuters article says creditor pressure on Radiant World has increased sharply, with Singapore filings showing 21 creditors now have registered claims over the iron-ore trader’s
Graduate (485) visas have been the second-fastest-growing category of temporary visas since Labor came to office in mid-2022. According to the Department of Home Affairs, the number of graduate visas on issue ballooned by 172,000 between Q2 2022 and Q2 2026, an increase of 175%. Pauline Hanson has demanded that all secondary applicants on student
TME sees the chase back on. Convexity Is Cheap Convexity remains cheap, but the surface is sending an interesting message. Outright SPX vol is still depressed, even as upside calls are increasingly bid relative to puts and downside protection has collapsed. That leaves attractive asymmetry on both sides: cheap outright vol for upside exposure, call
Trump’s endless war on Iran is now official. As the 60-day deadline for the Memorandum of Understanding is about to expire on Sunday, Pakistan is trying to revive it. Good luck. Despite ceasefires in place in both areas, the Israeli army conducted bombs and demolitions in southern Lebanon and launched its first attack on Gaza
When attempting to assess the performance of the Australian economy, simply looking at headline figures doesn’t really tell you anything about how the average household is faring. After more than two decades of outsized migration relative to the norms seen between the 1980s and early 2000s, the headline rate of GDP growth increasingly bares little
I reported last week how the homebuilding industry is facing a raft of headwinds that will inevitably slow the construction of new homes and further imperil the government’s housing targets. The latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the recent house price correction, coupled with the federal
