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Website improvements

Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The

Latest posts

1

MB Podcast: Australian economy: from hero to zero

In this MacroBusiness podcast, Gunnamatta, banking insider Deep T, and Leith van Onselen unpack the latest productivity summit, Australia’s broken economic model, Australia’s energy policy failures, and other issues. Highlights: 0:00 Introduction 1:26 Why Australia’s productivity stinks 10:27 The economic Ponzi scheme 21:29 The economy is designed to fail 26:13 Australia should be the richest nation

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Weekend reading and MB media appearances

International Reading: The RAND Corporation estimates that rich parasites have stolen $79 Trillion from workers and the public since 1975 – Rand Trump Attacks ‘American Disgrace’ Jerome Powell: ‘One of the Dumbest, and Most Destructive, People in Government’ – Mediate Social Security is on track to deplete its trust funds by 2034, one year sooner

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Want to meet Trump? Sack Rudd

Let’s do some more worrying, shall we. The Australian. The waning possibility of Anthony Albanese landing a face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump in coming weeks has sparked alarm from the Coalition and defence ­experts, who have raised concern about the two leaders not meeting before Washington’s controversial AUKUS review concludes and instead leaving the outcome

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Why do retirees need more comfort than workers?

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia’s (ASFA) latest modelling suggests that a couple who own their home now requires annual income of $73,875 to live comfortably in retirement. The figure for a single person who owns their home is $52,383. The analysis also shows that the cost of a comfortable retirement increased by 1.6% in

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Revenge of the Magnificent 7

The Market Ear with the charts. AI or die Goldman’s AI winners basket hit a fresh all-time high, while AI-risk names dropped again. Source: GS/Bloomberg The pulse on tech Mag7 names now make up ~15% of US net exposure (up from ~11% in April), but still well below the ~21% peak in mid-2024. The L/S

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Having children is becoming a luxury

Thursday’s Q4 2024 population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that “natural increase” (i.e., the number of births minus deaths) fell to only 105,200 in 2024, close to the lowest level on record. There were 292,500 births in 2024, offset by 187,300 deaths, the latter of which have risen following the Covid-19

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Use UAE to crush gas cartel

Even the cartel-loving AFR can’t come to grips with selling Santos to the UAE. The strategic rationale for the bid probably revolves around LNG and the bidder’s eagerness to capitalise on the expansive portfolio of projects Santos is developing not only in Australia but also South-East Asia and Alaska.  ADNOC has a minimal track record

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The root cause of the housing crisis

Over the past week, we have seen multiple articles like the following from The West Australian complaining about the decline in housing affordability, which has left residents struggling to pay mortgages or rent. These articles are based on the latest Housing Affordability Report from the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, which blames a ‘lack of supply’

0

EOFY lifts consumer pall

Westpac with the note. The Westpac-DataX Card Tracker Index* has firmed over the last two weeks after a very volatile period through Mar, Apr and May. The latest weekly read of 140 is up 2.3pts from the end of May, the last two weeks recording the strongest average read outside of the post-holiday rebound in

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The boom in Adelaide bureaucrats

The monthly growth in Seek advertised salaries has shown hints of stabilisation but is still trending lower. I expect the fade to continue as the immigration-led labour market expansion economic model does its thing. I do not expect we’ll get back to last cycle’s lows because the Labor government is forcing more wage rises via

2

Australian dollar bombed into submission

DXY is holding on. AUD is breaking down somewhat. Lead boots are getting heavier. The Trump fool has unleashed oil. Metals no bueno. Miners far to fall yet. EM meh. Junk still OK. US markets were closed but the European tell is heading south fast. War is not complex. Credit Agricole. Investors remain on tenterhooks

6

Macro Morning

Another night dominated by central bank decisions contrasted with indecisions around the Israeli war on Iran with the Swiss bank cutting rates to zero while the BOE held fire, just after the Fed a few days ago, while the Trump regime again goes to the TACO truck when talking about non-existent negotiations with the Iranian

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Housing industry: immigration is too high

In September 2024, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) labelling the federal government’s failure to control immigration a “systemic policy failure” that “compounds the challenge of delivering sufficient housing”. “The underestimation of population growth is a systemic policy failure that compounds the challenge of delivering sufficient housing”, HIA chief economist Tim Reardon said. On Thursday, the

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How Australians were robbed of their own gas

The Rudd/Gillard Labor government made the disastrous decision in the early 2010s to authorise LNG exports from Gladstone, Queensland, without forcing gas producers to first serve the domestic market. As a result of this policy blunder, East Coast Australia became the only gas exporting jurisdiction in the world without a domestic gas reservation policy. We

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Macro Afternoon

The Israel-Iran war continues to dominate risk markets as the TACO-in-Chief threatens to join in with bunker busters over the weekend to eliminate the Iranian nuclear facilities. The USD is gaining strength against most  of the undollars with the Australian dollar losing ground on a relatively weak unemployment today, heading back below the 65 cent

2

Aussie carbon emissons fall, sort of…

ANZ with report. Australia’s annual greenhouse gas emissions declined 1.2% in the year ending March 2025, according to the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. This follows a flat annual result over the year to December 2024. Excluding the land use, land use change and forestry4 (LULUCF) sector, annual emissions fell 1.0% in the year to March

11

Bowen fiddles while energy burns

The cartel is back, baby. And so are ludicrous electricity prices. Bowen is the great fiddler. The Australian. The Albanese government’s planned overhaul of household electricity price caps could put small energy retailers surviving on razor-thin profit margins out of business. Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen confirmed the government would review the Default Market Offer

0

Stocks hit the ceiling

The Market Ear on a rapidly exhausting market. Shorts stopped out Recent equity strength has been fueled by underweight positioning and a brutal short squeeze. But signs of relief are emerging — UBS reports the strongest hedge fund deleveraging since March, with sharp short covering. Nasdaq short interest is now in the 25th percentile, showing just

3

Labor drowns in energy lies

Labor’s Powering Australia Plan claimed that it would cut NEM wholesale power rates by $11 per MWh (from $62 to $51) by 2025. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese praised RepuTex Energy’s analysis as “the most comprehensive modelling ever done for any policy by any ­opposition in Australia’s history since Federation”. Albanese also regularly claimed that Labor

1

Australian dollar resilience returns

DXY went nowhere. AUD recovered some. Lead boots are going sideways. Oil short? Metals bifurcating. Biug miner bear one for the ages. EM meh. Junk hasn’t budged. Long end sort of OK. Stocks nothing burger. Here are the Fed headlines. *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 4.25%-4.5% TARGET RANGE *FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST STILL SHOWS 50 BPS