Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The weekend of 8-9 August suggested the nation’s housing market might be stabilising after the national auction clearance rate hit a 12-week high of 51.4%, following 10 consecutive weeks in the 40s. Auctioneers and agents hoped we had hit the bottom and that price declines would soon stabilise. Alas, the hopes were short-lived, with Cotality
When I think about El NiƱo, the first thing that comes to mind is usually weather: droughts, floods, bushfires and storms. But for investors, I think the more important question is what happens after the weather changes. A super El NiƱo does not automatically mean a market crash, nor does it guarantee that every commodity
This week’s must-watch videos: The truth about data centres: The truth about the energy transition: International Reading: We Did It! $40T in Debt! – CNBC US Public Debt Hits $40 Trillion, Raising āDoom Loopā Risk – Yahoo Teenagers are shooting out over 50 applications and getting ghosted even for volunteer jobs: āIāll take anything at
Data from the Australian ĀOffice of Financial Management (AOFM) shows that the nation’s total debt Ātotalled $983.7 billion as of last Friday. This was set to rise above $1 trillion for the first time on Thursday due to two new debt issuances worth $13 billion and $4 billion, respectively. However, total debt will fall below
The VIC opposition LNP, which is odds-on to take government, has promised substantial changes to the VIC energy outlook. Its central concern is the looming June 2028 closure of the Yallourn power station. The AEMO has warned that Victoria could face ālow reserve conditionsā from July 2028, with demand potentially exceeding available supply under some
The Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) was meant to accelerate wind, solar and battery investment by using taxpayer subsidies to underwrite revenue. Instead, only 14 of 89 supported projects have reached final investment decision (FID), and only one wind project has begun construction. Investors have also warned that more than half of earlyāround winners might never
Yesterday, I noted new Goldman research showing that Australia is leading the globe in throwing its youth under the AI job-displacement bus. Yesterday’s labour force release confirms this trend at the top level and provides some additional insight. That youth job prospects are dimming fast is not in doubt, as the employment-to-population ratio has declined
In late 2020, the former Coalition government received the findings of the review into Australian retirement incomes, which explicitly recommended against lifting the compulsory superannuation rate to 12% because it could disadvantage low-income earners and reduce workers’ lifetime incomes: āA rate of compulsory superannuation that would result in people having an increase in their living
DXY is sagging. AUD is enjoying China’s magic carpet ride. Scott Bessent has not fixed Japan. The twins of doom are now moving in tandem. AI metals appear concerned. Not so miners. This is a big short for mine (pardon the pun). If growth worries build, copper will crash. RIO breaking out is ludicrous. EM
War headlines today: Trump’s announces an unprecedented “crushing economic operation” of more sanctions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Washington would only suffer more setbacks as a result of the “so-called ‘Economic D-Day’. China slammed the sanctions (and will presumably ignore them). Houthis claim new strikes on Saudi targets at Najran airport and Aramco
As price falls spread to a larger and larger share of Australia’s housing markets, commentary continues that the nation could see the largest housing price falls on record. Perhaps one of the most notable sources of housing price data comes from Cotality, which has analysed housing price data going back well over 40 years. And
Australians have been subjected to a long, grinding income recession. The latest OECD data showed that Australia experienced the softest real per capita household disposable income growth in the 11 years to the March 2026 quarter among English-speaking nations tracked by the OECD. Australia’s 6.0% growth in real per capita household disposable income over 11
New Zealand citizens can work and live in Australia indefinitely as temporary migrants under the Special Category Visa (SCV). Under changes made by the Albanese government, from 1 July 2023, New Zealand citizens no longer needed to secure permanent residence before becoming Australian citizens. As a result, other nationalities now fill those places, effectively increasing
Following Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected wage growth data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its July labour force survey on Thursday, which reported rising unemployment. The nation’s unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.5% after 15,800 jobs were lost. However, full-time employment rose by 16,300, more than offset by a 32,200 decrease in part-time jobs. The number
In this weekās podcast, Nucleus Wealthās Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, explores what SpaceX is really becoming ā from Grok and massive AI data centres to AI satellites and ambitious plans for space-based computing. With Musk targeting 10 gigawatts of AI compute by 2027, we ask whether SpaceX is quietly positioning itself to compete with
Bloomberg has a piece today that should alarm every Australian. The article argues that Donald Trump is accidentally reversing years of US foreign-policy efforts to shift military and strategic attention from the Middle East toward the Indo-Pacific and China. Recall it all began with President Obama’s “pivot to Asia” and continued through both Trump’s first
Victoria has legislated a target to source 95% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2035. This is one of the most ambitious renewable energy targets in Australia and globally, designed to accelerate the stateās transition away from cheap brown coal and toward cleaner energy sources, such as wind, solar, and storage. The target is
Goldman has released an alarming study on Australian complacency regarding our new and improved AI+immigration growth model. Australia is mid-range in the AI rollout among DMs. But Australia is a leader in AI job displacement. In fact, it’s probably fair to say that the higher your immigration, the worse it is for your labour market.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. When Jeff Kennett became Victorian Premier in October 1992, Victoriaās net debt was more than 30% of gross state product (GSP) ā one of the highest state debt burdens in Australian history ā and it had lost its AAA credit rating and was facing rising borrowing
Regular readers will know that I basically believe that AI is only the latest iteration of a structurally deflationary environment, regularly disrupted by an inflationary pushback in the form of disintegrating globalisation. Currently, my base case is bearish for most assets due to the war in Iran and its associated energy shock, which I see
Today’s Iran war headlines. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and chief negotiator, claims that the US is looking for a “honourable exit” from the Middle East and is promoting a “new regional order.” UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have discussed
Recently Victorian Opposition Leader Jess Wilson pledged that a Coalition state government would restore weekly rubbish collections if they win November’s state election. Overall, 33 Victorian councils have shifted general rubbish collections from weekly to fortnightly, with some councils in other states pursuing a similar course. Despite the fact one can’t imagine fortnightly rubbish collection
Australia’s housing market is facing a ‘perfect storm’ of forces that are converging to deliver the largest price correction in generations. First, following this year’s three rate hikes by the Reserve Bank, mortgage rates in Australia are tracking at their equal highest in more than a decade. As a result, a wide gap has opened
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the wage price index for the June quarter, which rose by 0.8% over the quarter to be 3.2% higher year-over-year: The result was in line with analysts’ expectations but 0.1% below what the Reserve Bank had forecast in its latest Statement of Monetary Policy. Over the year,
Albo is, once again, listening to the wrong people on gas. Federal Labor is increasingly likely to make changes to its centrepiece gas policy as it heeds widespread criticism that the scheme would crush investment by domestic producers, the chief executive of ASX-listed gas producer Amplitude Energy says. …Amplitude Energy chief executive Jane Norman told
