Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
This week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on net permanent & long-term (NPLT) arrivals, which remained at historically high levels in February 2026. In the year to February, 479,000 NPLT arrivals landed in Australia, a whisker below the all-time high level of 498,000 recorded two years prior in February 2024. The latest
According to the CBA HSI, Australian household spending rose strongly in March, increasing 2.9% after a February dip, largely driven by a sharp rise in fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions. Transport spending jumped 22.9%, accounting for over half the monthly increase, while overall spending still grew 1.0% excluding transport, with gains across all
In this week’s podcast, we’re unpacking what some are calling “Trump’s carbon tax” — exploring how Donald Trump’s escalation with Iran is driving oil prices higher, why those energy shocks act like an implicit tax on consumers and businesses, and what this tightening energy backdrop means for markets, inflation, and investor positioning. Download presentation slides
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its labour force report for March, which showed no adverse impacts from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary tightening nor the global energy shock. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in March, with the number of employed people rising by 18,000, driven by a
Since the 1970s oil shocks, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has mandated that members maintain 90 days of net crude oil reserves. As explained by The AFR’s Phil Coorey, Australia’s stockpiles began to decline after Labor lost power in 2013. During the Coalition government’s tenure, four of Australia’s remaining six refineries shut down because they
Australia’s gas fight is turning into a life-and-death brawl. One of the most egregious lobbies in Australia has weighed in: the Business Council. Structural shortfalls of approximately 12 petajoules on the east coast and 4 petajoules on the west coast are also forecast from the end of this decade. To put this in perspective, the
Charts for TME. Now what? From squeeze to chase – now what? SPX is back at highs, but the character of the move is shifting. What began as forced buying is now turning into chasing, with vols firming and positioning getting crowded again. This is where things get more complicated. LSEG Workspace Terrific tech NASDAQ
We don’t get another official release of CPI data until the end of the month, but some private surveys are already ripping higher. The Melbourne Institute monthly gauge printed its highest ever monthly blowout of 1.3% Mom and 4.2% Yoy headline. The NAB survey was equally bad for input costs, though it looks like businesses
The situation continues to worsen for Australian tenants. The latest data from Cotality shows that advertised rents nationally have soared by 48% since the end of 2019, adding around $11,700 to the annual cost of renting. Cotality’s data also shows that the number of homes listed for rent across the combined capital cities is tracking
Day two of God Trump’s Iran blockade, and it is the worst it has been. Bad-faith “negotiations” have, however, brought down dated Brent, as further negotiations may happen. This is particularly stark given news that the US will not renew either Iranian or Russian oil sanctions waivers by the end of this week, taking still
As much of the world attempts to come to terms with what, by some metrics, is the largest interruption to global oil supplies in history, much of the emphasis from analysts and geopolitical commentators has been on China. Given that China is by far the largest recipient of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,
The Albanese government continues to import people into Australia at a furious rate, with 96,110 net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals in February, the third-strongest February result on record, behind 2025 (111,740) and 2024 (105,460). Over the year to February 2026, 478,910 NPLT arrivals landed in Australia, down from the all-time peaks of 498,270 recorded
Bloomie. Western Australia will establish its own strategic reserves of diesel fuel to ease “acute shortages,” the state’s government said. The government signed a deal with Cambridge Gulf Ltd. to buy and store 4 million liters of diesel, which is expected to arrive in the coming weeks, according to a statement. The inventory may be expanded to 12
A week or so ago, Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi made the unexpected announcement that she would be travelling to Australia by the end of the month. Clearly, her visit is part of an intensifying diplomatic frenzy across Asia to secure energy supplies. Yet, the arrival of Japan’s political gojeerah has special significance for both countries.
TME with the charts. Complacency is back Panic gone. Volatility crushed. Complacency back. The flip SPX futures are nearing the 7k level, with range highs just above. Downside panic has flipped into upside chasing, while vols have reset to pre-war levels. Chart 2 (SPX vs. VIX, inverted) shows the gap has narrowed materially from peak
Tobacco excise has increased by over 60% since 2020, accounting for more than two-thirds of the legal cost of a pack of cigarettes. While illegal cigarettes are widely available and cost between $10 and $15 per pack of 20, a legal pack of cigarettes currently costs $40 or more. As a result, despite increasing taxes,
Roy Morgan with the news. Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.4 million in March; ‘Real Unemployment’ at 1.69 million In March 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 28,000 to 1,693,000 (10.5% of the workforce, down 0.1%), and under-employment dropped 205,000 to 1,687,000 (down 1.2% to 10.4%). Given the data is not seasonally adjusted, the only
The Chinese property crash continues unabated. YTD sales for new property are down a meaty 21%. The secondary market exit is still jammed with fleeing investors. Asking prices no bueno. Inventory no bueno. Completions no bueno. Meanwhile, March credit is out, and it’s no bueno too. Aggregate financing increased by 7.9% year over year in
Due to its immense size, isolation, and industry composition (i.e., heavy mining and agriculture), Australia is literally one of the most diesel-dependent economies in the world. The following chart from CBA shows that Australia consumed 7.7 barrels of diesel per person in 2024, the highest out of the nations surveyed: “Australia uses more diesel per
There was a certain inevitability to it. Amusing riposte here. And with that, we shall move on to his idiotic war, which today shows little progress. The outlook for fuel shortages is basically unchanged, with OECD inventories still to reach critical lows in early May, after which Australia will have a devil of a time
Amidst Labor’s consideration of NDIS reform, federal Greens leader Larissa Waters took to Twitter (now known as X) to make the argument that cutting the NDIS is “bad economics”. Waters claimed that for “Every dollar spent on the NDIS puts $2.25 back into the economy”. This is based on the findings of a report from
The latest consumer sentiment survey from the Westpac Melbourne Institute, released on Tuesday, revealed that Australians have become more pessimistic about house prices. The house price expectations index fell by 10.2% in April but remains fairly bullish overall. On the other hand, homebuyer sentiment rose by 3.5% in April but remained soft by historical standards.
According to the most recent CommBank Wage Insights, Australia’s wage growth is steady amid growing prices and uncertainty across the world. Wages rose by 0.8% in the three months leading up to March 2026, with annual growth remaining at 3.1%, according to de-identified data from about 400,000 accounts. This implies that since mid-2025, wage growth
They never learn. They are paid not to. The LNP is out with its new performance-based phoney immigration policy. Unknown leader Seabass Taylor suggests switching from a system that is non-discriminatory to one that evaluates immigrants based on how well they align with national values. This would include establishing explicit behavioural guidelines and making the
The Westpac index of consumer sentiment for April is out and has crashed to its lowest level since COVID, following the surge in fuel prices and rising inflation concerns. “At 80, the Index is back near historical lows, albeit above the extremes seen at the onset of the pandemic and during the recessions of the
