Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
In 2002, the Australian Treasury released the inaugural Intergenerational Report, which forecast net overseas migration (NOM) averaging 90,000 annually and the population reaching 25.3 million by 2042: In 2003, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its Population Projections 2002 to 2101, which included a baseline (Series B) forecast of the nation’s population at 26.4
Home Affairs minister Tony Burke on Thursday delivered his long-awaited National Press Club address on how Labor will reform the immigration system. The event was mostly bluster, with little substance on the immigration front. Burke also claimed in his speech that “the housing shortage we have is not caused by immigration, but immigration needs to
TME on bearish sentiment. Risk appetite: Gone missing Where are all the risk-loving hot heads? Sentiment measures are near the bottom of their historical ranges, hedge fund net exposure remains low and credit funds are seeing outflows. A quick look at where positioning and risk appetite stand. Sore sentiment Investor sentiment has fallen sharply, with
The Australian newspaper has recently published a detailed report showing how Australia is facing its worst decade of productivity growth in more than 60 years of records, following last decade’s anaemic growth, which is currently the worst decade on record: Australia’s labour productivity growth this decade has ranked among the very poorest in the advanced
Iron ore is enjoying a pre-holiday bounce. The real iron ore price popped above $90 as freight prices eased as well. Steel inventories eased over the week. Iron ore inventories grew. The outlook remains poor. Housing sales are crapola. Price falls have slowed. Steel demand and supply are awful. No stimmies. And the export boom
Sydney’s housing correction has reached a new milestone, with Cotality’s daily dwelling values index now showing values down 8.0% from its peak in early March 2026. Cotality’s largest decline on record for Sydney is -12.9%, recorded between June 2017 and May 2019. This period was heavily impacted by APRA restrictions on mortgage lending, the banking
Governor Bullock was blatantly hawkish in her statement before Australia’s parliament on Friday. Bullock stated that “upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising,” citing “the Middle East conflict, the AI boom, and extreme weather events.” The governor said that Australia is now “in a very similar position to other countries” with “this prolonged Middle
Latest war headlines. North Sea oil soars as Saudis cut shipments. Houthis pound Saudi Arabia. Pakistan and Turkey mull intervention. Ukraine pounds Moscow oil refinery. Some solid new research from JPM is worth a look. Given the scale of the supply disruption, we expected inventories to draw rapidly and cautioned that, while the headline number
Amidst a flurry of headlines regarding changes to the Albanese government’s migration policy, it is increasingly clear that the government doesn’t understand the issue of immigration from a political perspective. For much of the current political cycle, Labor has been on the back foot on the issue of immigration levels, losing poll after poll to
Last week was seminal for immigration policy in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released population data for the March quarter of 2026, highlighting the record net overseas migration (NOM) under the Albanese government since it took office in June 2022. NOM averaged a whopping 1,106 per day over the first 3.75 years of
Last weekend, there was talk that the housing correction may be stabilising after the national auction clearance rate rose to a 19-week high of 52.6%. That belief was shattered this weekend, with Cotality’s preliminary auction results reporting a sharp retracement, with the preliminary clearance rate falling by 4.6% to 54.0% across the combined capital cities. The
A discussion paper evaluating a new, forward-only retirement system funded by non-marketable government bonds, run alongside the existing superannuation pool rather than replacing it. Prepared September 2026 By Deep T, Edited, Gunnamatta Executive summary The original 3 blog critique (Pt1 here, Pt2 here, and Pt3 here)argued that Australia’s compulsory superannuation system fails on ten
In his Citizenship Day address to the National Press Club, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke offered aspiring immigrants what he called “a relatively simple proposition”: “If you want to come on a temporary basis to Australia, apply for a temporary visa. If you want to come to Australia permanently, apply for a permanent visa.” He
International Reading: Full blown catastrophe: Trump’s Iran War leaves gas stations “out of diesel” – News Week Some gas stations “out of diesel” as prices surge – Yahoo Farmers slam Trump over record diesel prices: “we just can’t survive” – News Week Warsh Suggests Fed Rate Hike Is Good-News Story, Touting Growth | Fed Chair
By Deep T, editing Gunnamatta Intro to subject here, first 5 reasons here. A critical examination of a $4.4 trillion compulsory savings experiment Fund Managers Operate Under a Narrow Mandate That May Diverge From the National Interest Super fund trustees are legally required to act in the “best financial interests”
Australia’s economy has experienced some of the weakest per capita growth in the OECD over the past four years, with per capita GDP declining by 0.3% between Q2 2022 and Q2 2026. The only thing keeping the Australian economy from experiencing an actual technical recession is the nation’s strong population growth (via immigration), which is
Several Australian journalists and economists have claimed this week that One Nation’s sensible proposal to reduce the stock of temporary migrants back to pre-pandemic levels would create skills shortages and worsen population ageing. The following Tweet from journalist Hugh Riminton encapsulates this way of thinking: The argument is as asinine as it is ignorant. First,
Iron ore is staging a little recovery, just for fun. The normalised price, accounting for elevated freight costs, is roughly $10 lower. Chinese demand remains poor. The forward orderbook trend of most steel mills picked up MoM in September, and saw weaker than normal seasonality. High-frequency weekly data suggest steel demand declined by 6.0% yoy
Effin Albo. As industry and the energy transition run off the rails owing to our perverse gas shortage, Japan is reselling Aussie gas hand over fist. The biggest Japanese LNG importer and largest power producer, JERA, plans to sell liquefied natural gas in the long term as part of a strategy to tap global LNG
Victoria has legislated a target to source 95% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2035. This is one of the most ambitious renewable energy targets in Australia and globally, designed to accelerate the state’s transition away from cheap brown coal to cleaner energy sources such as wind, solar, and storage. The target is embedded
All it took was a few days off attacks on energy infrastructure, and everything except DXY is to the moon! AUD rebound. The twins of doom reverse roles. Energy relief was metals relief. Mining relief. EM relief. Junk relief. Yield relief. Stocks relief. It’s all one trade, correlation one with oil and products. This should
War headlines today. Pakistan mulls Mecca agreement attack on Houthis. China rumoured to pressure Iran on Houthis. Hormuz traffic has slowed. Madman mulls Iran “annihilation”. Brent and diesel pull back. TME sums up oil market positioning. Range-bound, crowded and convex Oil is sending conflicting signals. The long-term chart remains trendless and volatility refuses to panic,
Recently, there was an analysis published in the Wall Street Journal based on data from the Atlanta branch of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which detailed the median household income in the United States against the income required to purchase a median-priced home and have all housing-related expenses (homeowners association dues, strata fees, insurance, property taxes
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday released the official population data for the March quarter of 2026. Australia’s population increased by 130,900 in the March quarter, driven by net overseas migration (NOM) of 101,000: Over the year, Australia’s population grew by 392,800, driven by NOM of 292,100: Australia’s NOM comprised a historically high
Australian tenants have faced a torrid period since the pandemic, with advertised rents nationally soaring by more than 40% over the past five years. Gerard Burg, Cotality’s Head of Research, noted last month that “the median rent has risen by over $200 per week in the last five years” and that households were “paying a
