Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
International reading: Trump rushed into Iran crisis meeting as insider warns ‘strike within hours’ – Daily Mail The Fed just casually dropped $18.5 billion into the banking system this week. – FRED Fed confirms it obeyed White House request for an unusual ārate check,ā weakening the dollar against foreign currencies – Fortune US trade deficit
The boom in government-funded, non-market sector jobs, defined as jobs in the public service, healthcare & social assistance, and education, is well documented. The non-market sector comprises only 31.5% of total Australian jobs, according to CBA: However, as Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, shows below, of the 926,425 jobs created between Q1 2023
This is some surge in the One Nation polling. Roy Morgan kicks us off. Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of ALP (25.5%) and L-NP Coalition (21.5%) on primary vote nine months before Victorian State Election. Sadly, this puts the ALP into power with a wild majority. A three-party preferred result ā
In 2019, Four Corners aired a story titled Cracking Up, which revealed systemic issues with construction quality across the nation’s apartment market. “We’ve got a real problem here. It’s systemic, and it’s infecting lots of buildings across the landscape, in all parts of the country. It’s very clear”, one building analyst told Four Corners in
According to Judo Bank and S&P, Australia’s interim PMIĀ® data grew more slowly in February after a robust start to the year. In terms of output and new business, there were widespread slowdowns in the manufacturing and service sectors. Although it cooled, business sentiment stayed upbeat. In the meantime, job growth sped rapidly to accommodate
Will Hamilton, the CEO and founder of Hamilton Wealth Partners, is the latest commentator to warn of dire impacts on Australia’s rental market if the federal government reduces the capital gains tax (CGT) discount or limits negative gearing. It is worth critiquing Hamilton’s main arguments as they pertain to the rental market. First, Hamilton argues
As we know, AI capex keeps going up through February 2026, with data centres leading, followed closely by semiconductors. What evidence is there that this is impacting labour markets? In the US, Goldman has an AI tracker to monitor developments. According to the bank, firm adoption has gone up to 18.9% of US businesses and
Government and regulatory decisions are driving up Australia’s inflation and making the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) job significantly more difficult. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, administered prices like essential utilities (e.g., electricity, water, and gas), council rates, public transport fares, etc., rose by 7.55% last calendar year, roughly double the
The AFR hates nothing more than a resolution to eastern Australia’s energy woes. But there is good news today from the old hag. APA Group has committed to the east coast pipline expansion needed to ship QLD south during peak demand periods, instead of building LNG import terminals. The investment includes $260 million for compression
DXY is threatening to break higher again as Iran and oil heat up. AUD can’t catch a bid with China closed and JPY falling. Oil and gold are on the up as geopolitical risk rises. Not so good for AI metals, which still look rather nastily topped out. Big miners are momo, not fundamentals. Is
In the years since the pandemic and high inflation began impacting the Australian economy, the nation’s workers have gone backwards dramatically. Today, inflation-adjusted wages sit at roughly the same point as they did at the start of 2010, erasing all of the progress of the last 16 years. As the chart below, based on the
Build Skills Australia’s recent report claimed that there aren’t enough tradespeople to meet Labor’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years, which is currently tracking 27% below target. According to Build Skills Australia, Australia’s housing construction rate per new resident has plummeted, even though the number of homes built over the last 20
Is there anything our government does right? Having single-handedly created a monster black market valued at $5.6 billion (ranging from $4.1 billion to $6.9 billion), Canberra now wants to take a piece of the action. Up to 1.5 million Australians are predicted to be buying cigarettes on the black market in what has been described
Tobacco excise has climbed by around 60% since 2020 and now accounts for more than two-thirds of the legal cost of a packet of cigarettes. While illegal cigarettes are easily accessible and cost between $10 and $15 for a pack of 20, a legal packet of cigarettes now costs $40 or more. Therefore, despite higher
I have been bullish on gold for a few years, but my view has recently pivoted to “sell the rips”. My reasoning for this is that the drivers of the gold rally have been materially weakened in recent weeks. First, we had the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the successor to the FOMC chair. He
Via the ABS comes Labor Force in seasonally adjusted terms for January 2026: unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. participation rate remained at 66.7%. employment increased to 14,703,800. employment to population ratio decreased to 63.9%. underemployment rate increased to 5.9%. monthly hours worked increased to 2,013 million. full-time employment increased by 50,500 to 10,155,500 people. part-time
The federal government’s latest State of the Environment (SOE) Report explicitly ranked population growth as having a “very high impact” on Australia’s biodiversity, outranking climate change. The report states that “population growth contributes to all the pressures described” and that “each person added to our population increases demand on natural resources to provide food, shelter
Because a banker said it, the AFR reckons it must be true! National Australia Bank chief executive Andrew Irvine has warned that the nation has hit āpeak Australiaā and will not grow unless productivity improves, as data revealed real wages have gone backwards for the first time in two years, intensifying the economic challenge facing
Soaring energy costs have contributed to Australia’s declining manufacturing sector, which is the smallest in the OECD as a share of GDP. Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, illustrated the manufacturing sector’s energy problem in the following chart: Natural gas input costs in manufacturing have increased by 186% since 2000, while electricity prices have
In a social media post late last year, Housing Minister Clare O’Neil claimed: “Why is housing so tough right now? Because for 40 years our country hasn’t been building enough homes.” But is that actually true? Today’s Numbers It’s certainly correct that Australia is currently not building enough homes and hasn’t been for quite some
On Wednesday, I wrote an article explaining how both China and Indiaāthe world’s largest and third-largest carbon emitters (combined share of 40.1% of global emissions in 2024)āplanned to aggressively expand their coal production and generation. China currently produces around 10 times more coal than Australia, and India over two times more: Both nations also import
DXY was strong last night, likely because the situation with Iran is coming to a head. It refuses to break down technically. AUD was quite weak, chasing JPY and CNY. Oil popped with gold. AI metals rose, but there is an almighty peak behind it. Big miners, too. EM stocks are at the highs. Remember,
It’s a lot of motherhood statements so far, but they are good ones, at least. “Tiny” Tim Wilson has given us a sort of philosophy. Mr Wilson flagged plans for a two-tier system of company taxes and regulations that provided a more generous environment for small business owners. āIām looking exclusively at how it is
I was interviewed via email earlier this week by Harrison Christian, a senior reporter at News.com.au, asking why the US economy is performing so much better than Australia’s. In particular: US real GDP growth is 4.4%, compared with Australia’s 2.1%. US CPI inflation is 2.4% compared with Australia’s 3.8%. The US is still cutting interest
By Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor at Sydney University and author of the book “Australia’s Universities, Can They Reform” Universities Australia (UA) has published its pre-budget submission, and it opens with the claim that its members educate “1.5 million Australians every year”. That is incorrect. They educate roughly 1.5 million people every yearāof whom only about
