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Website improvements

Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The

Latest posts

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Canada fixed its rental crisis. Australia chose not to.

This week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on net permanent & long-term (NPLT) arrivals, which remained at historically high levels in February 2026. In the year to February, 479,000 NPLT arrivals landed in Australia, a whisker below the all-time high level of 498,000 recorded two years prior in February 2024. The latest

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Old farts burn through fuel like prune juice

According to the CBA HSI, Australian household spending rose strongly in March, increasing 2.9% after a February dip, largely driven by a sharp rise in fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions. Transport spending jumped 22.9%, accounting for over half the monthly increase, while overall spending still grew 1.0% excluding transport, with gains across all

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MB Fund Podcast: Trump’s carbon tax

In this week’s podcast, we’re unpacking what some are calling “Trump’s carbon tax” — exploring how Donald Trump’s escalation with Iran is driving oil prices higher, why those energy shocks act like an implicit tax on consumers and businesses, and what this tightening energy backdrop means for markets, inflation, and investor positioning. Download presentation slides

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No Chris Bowen, EVs won’t fix Australia’s fuel problem

Since the 1970s oil shocks, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has mandated that members maintain 90 days of net crude oil reserves. As explained by The AFR’s Phil Coorey, Australia’s stockpiles began to decline after Labor lost power in 2013. During the Coalition government’s tenure, four of Australia’s remaining six refineries shut down because they

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Overbought and running out of fuel

Charts for TME. Now what? From squeeze to chase – now what? SPX is back at highs, but the character of the move is shifting. What began as forced buying is now turning into chasing, with vols firming and positioning getting crowded again. This is where things get more complicated. LSEG Workspace Terrific tech NASDAQ

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Aussie inflation roars higher

We don’t get another official release of CPI data until the end of the month, but some private surveys are already ripping higher. The Melbourne Institute monthly gauge printed its highest ever monthly blowout of 1.3% Mom and 4.2% Yoy headline. The NAB survey was equally bad for input costs, though it looks like businesses

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Energy crisis intensifies

Day two of God Trump’s Iran blockade, and it is the worst it has been. Bad-faith “negotiations” have, however, brought down dated Brent, as further negotiations may happen. This is particularly stark given news that the US will not renew either Iranian or Russian oil sanctions waivers by the end of this week, taking still

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Net permanent & long-term arrivals remains historically high

The Albanese government continues to import people into Australia at a furious rate, with 96,110 net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals in February, the third-strongest February result on record, behind 2025 (111,740) and 2024 (105,460). Over the year to February 2026, 478,910 NPLT arrivals landed in Australia, down from the all-time peaks of 498,270 recorded

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WA establishes 2 hour strategic diesel reserve

Bloomie. Western Australia will establish its own strategic reserves of diesel fuel to ease “acute shortages,” the state’s government said. The government signed a deal with Cambridge Gulf Ltd. to buy and store 4 million liters of diesel, which is expected to arrive in the coming weeks, according to a statement. The inventory may be expanded to 12

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The crash up to nowhere

TME with the charts. Complacency is back Panic gone. Volatility crushed. Complacency back. The flip SPX futures are nearing the 7k level, with range highs just above. Downside panic has flipped into upside chasing, while vols have reset to pre-war levels. Chart 2 (SPX vs. VIX, inverted) shows the gap has narrowed materially from peak

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Unemployment climbs

Roy Morgan with the news. Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.4 million in March; ‘Real Unemployment’ at 1.69 million In March 2026, Australian ‘real’ unemployment dropped 28,000 to 1,693,000 (10.5% of the workforce, down 0.1%), and under-employment dropped 205,000 to 1,687,000 (down 1.2% to 10.4%). Given the data is not seasonally adjusted, the only

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Chinese property Titanic goes down faster

The Chinese property crash continues unabated. YTD sales for new property are down a meaty 21%. The secondary market exit is still jammed with fleeing investors. Asking prices no bueno. Inventory no bueno. Completions no bueno. Meanwhile, March credit is out, and it’s no bueno too. Aggregate financing increased by 7.9% year over year in

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Australia’s diesel problem is bigger than you think

Due to its immense size, isolation, and industry composition (i.e., heavy mining and agriculture), Australia is literally one of the most diesel-dependent economies in the world. The following chart from CBA shows that Australia consumed 7.7 barrels of diesel per person in 2024, the highest out of the nations surveyed: “Australia uses more diesel per

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Bow down before the Trump God

There was a certain inevitability to it. Amusing riposte here. And with that, we shall move on to his idiotic war, which today shows little progress. The outlook for fuel shortages is basically unchanged, with OECD inventories still to reach critical lows in early May, after which Australia will have a devil of a time

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Aussie confidence in house prices is cracking

The latest consumer sentiment survey from the Westpac Melbourne Institute, released on Tuesday, revealed that Australians have become more pessimistic about house prices. The house price expectations index fell by 10.2% in April but remains fairly bullish overall. On the other hand, homebuyer sentiment rose by 3.5% in April but remained soft by historical standards.

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Labour market holds together in March

According to the most recent CommBank Wage Insights, Australia’s wage growth is steady amid growing prices and uncertainty across the world. Wages rose by 0.8% in the three months leading up to March 2026, with annual growth remaining at 3.1%, according to de-identified data from about 400,000 accounts. This implies that since mid-2025, wage growth

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Taylor (who?) launches new immigration bait and switch

They never learn. They are paid not to. The LNP is out with its new performance-based phoney  immigration policy. Unknown leader Seabass Taylor suggests switching from a system that is non-discriminatory to one that evaluates immigrants based on how well they align with national values. This would include establishing explicit behavioural guidelines and making the

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Aussie consumer sentiment crashes

The Westpac index of consumer sentiment for April is out and has crashed to its lowest level since COVID, following the surge in fuel prices and rising inflation concerns. “At 80, the Index is back near historical lows, albeit above the extremes seen at the onset of the pandemic and during the recessions of the