43

Website improvements

Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The

Latest posts

2

Australia’s housing shortage by the numbers

Richard Denniss, co‑Chief Executive Officer of The Australia Institute, published an article dismissing the claim that Australia is suffering from a housing shortage. Denniss claims that “Australia actually has more than enough houses, they’re just owned by investors”. He cited ABS data on the number of dwelling showing that “over the past 10 years, the

4

The evidence is clear: immigration drives rental growth

Last week, I presented detailed data on how the sharp reduction in net overseas migration (NOM) in Canada, which turned negative last year, has suppressed rents. After experiencing explosive rental growth in 2022 and 2023 amid record NOM, Canada has experienced 17 consecutive monthly declines in rents: Canadian rents are now tracking at a 33-month

1

The Chinese Titanic just hit a second iceberg

Chinese property is OK post-LNY but the year has started poorly. The secondary market is still awash. EV sales have dropped post-incentives. But watch this space. If there is one winner globally from the American Madman’s war, this is it. Broader car sales are similar. Consumer depression continues. Coal isn’t growing, but its sovereign value

5

Property lobby rallies against CGT changes

Australia’s largest real estate group, Ray White, has issued a stern warning that proposed changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount would trigger a major shock to the rental market. Ray White managing director Dan White and chief economist Nerida Conisbee told 10,500 members that the federal government is considering reducing

21

Australia’s energy winter of discontent

When the war in the Middle East first broke out, I warned that Australia faced a triple energy threat of higher petrol/diesel prices, higher gas prices, and higher electricity prices. Vivek Dhar, Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics at CBA, published a detailed analysis warning of similar risks, arguing that Australia’s energy system is facing

18

Trump mulls deal in the mirror

The American Madman raised the prospect of talks to resolve a dispute that has disrupted oil markets and nearly stopped shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz. “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” Trump stated, adding that Tehran’s promise to give

23

And now for a shortage of everything

While everyone knows about the risks of oil and refined fuels, there is much more coming from the Persian Gulf than just those. Morgan Stanley helps us summarise where the shortages will be in due course. Sulphur Concentration: The Middle East accounts for 45% of the world market for sulphur (fertilizer/chemical chain), a crucial component

13

High immigration has no place in a modern economy

Proponents of high immigration claim that it is necessary to alleviate purported labour shortages and an ageing population. These arguments were always spurious: Australia has run one of the largest migration programs in the world this century, yet has suffered from persistent labour shortages. In effect, Australia has played a game of migration ‘whack-a-mole’ this

38

The RBA must not hike rates

The central bank would be insane to hike this week, and I don’t believe that it will. The energy shock that is overrunning Australia is going to shut down the economy in record time. My sense is that a panic shutdown is already underway as Australians realise the Iran war will cut fuel supplies by

8

Buyers abandon Sydney property

This month’s consumer sentiment survey by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute suggested that homebuyers have gone cold on Sydney property. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, homebuyer sentiment has fallen sharply in Sydney, as has dwelling value growth: Recent auction data is also gloomy. Last week’s final auction clearance rate for Sydney was

9

Open-borders Australia learns nothing from Carney visit

By Stephen Saunders Leaving Anthony Albanese as a world outlier, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has stymied Canada’s population growth to ease the housing pain. Sigh, his Australian visit was all framed around “middle powers” vs Trump. Australia endures historic highs in mass migration and historic lows in housing affordability. But the elite narrative is

154

Weekend reading and MB media appearances

International reading: US to release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserve – Reuters Iran says it’s ready for a long war that would ‘destroy’ global economy – Lemonde Saudi oil giant warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ from Iran war as three commercial ships are ‘attacked’ in Strait of Hormuz and Tehran tries to

0

MB Fund February 2026 Performance Report

The story for February was the surging Australian dollar running into incredible profit growth forecasts. Profit forecasts got stronger throughout the month, helping share prices higher, but for Australian investors, the rising AUD offset all of those gains. The key question in March is whether the profit growth (15%+ forecast for each of the next two years)

18

Why your water bills will soar

The Centre for Population’s latest Population Statement forecast that Australia’s capital cities will swell by 10,850,000 people over the next 41 years. Melbourne (9.1 million) and Sydney (8.5 million) are projected to become megacities by the mid-2060s, while Brisbane is tipped to grow by around 1.8 million to 4.6 million, and Perth by 1.7 million

13

Next up: Food inflation

Rising energy costs drive fertiliser prices up because modern fertiliser production is fundamentally an energy-intensive industrial process. The link is direct, mechanical, and unavoidable: energy is both a feedstock and a fuel. For nitrogen fertilisers (i.e., urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonia), natural gas is the single biggest input cost, used as a feedstock in the

7

Immigration is ‘can-kick’ economics

Joe Walker interviewed former immigration department bureaucrat-turned-influencer Abul Rizvi last year. During the interview, Rizvi openly acknowledged that slowing population ageing accounted for approximately “80%” of the motivation behind the 2001 changes that significantly increased Australia’s intake of migrants, particularly international students. WALKER: And so back in the late 90s, early 2000s, when you were

2

Iron ore rips as China dismantles BHP

There is no hubris like BHP hubris. When you put yourself in front of an angry dictator you’ve been gouging for twenty years, eventually you’ll get yours. China has widened a ban on BHP iron ore for the second time in two weeks, escalating a months-long contract dispute with the world’s third-largest supplier of the

17

Income splitting: nice in theory, unaffordable in practice

One Nation proposes allowing wage-earning couples with children to split their income and file joint tax returns, potentially saving thousands of dollars in taxes each year. Senator Pauline Hanson launched One Nation’s income-splitting policy in January, which permits couples with at least one dependent child to combine their incomes and divide the total equally for

26

Will the oil shock of 2026 crash house prices

Let’s ask the question that’s plaguing the Australian bourgeoisie’s nightmares today: will the oil shock of 2026 crash house prices? I’m pleased to inform you that the answer is becoming increasingly “yes.” As a rule of thumb, every 10% rise in the oil price adds 0.4% to inflation. Given that Iran is winning the war

77

Iran is winning the war

For decades, Israel has tried to trap US presidents in a war with Iran. All have dodged the trap until now. The American Idiot has walked straight into the trap, either due to his own stupidity or Jeffrey Epstein pictures, or similar, and the trap has snapped shut behind him. Consider how bad a day

6

The cause of Australia’s rental crisis is clear

Independent economist Gerrard Minack recently posted the following chart illustrating how Australia’s rental inflation has tracked population growth: CBA’s latest housing market update notes that “there is a particularly strong relationship between increases in higher-density housing supply and rent growth”: “This likely reflects the fact that apartments make up a disproportionate share of the rental