Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
When the United States and Israel kicked off the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf back in February, it set off a chain of events that will continue to echo around the world long after the conflict has been consigned to the history books. For over eight decades since the Second World War, nations around
According to The Australian’s Mackenzie Scott, more than 102,000 Australians have used the federal government’s 5% first-home buyer (FHB) deposit scheme since it was expanded on 1 October 2025. Analysis by realestate.com.au suggests about 1,143 households that took the offer of buying a home with a deposit of just 5% were likely in negative equity
The 2026 Intergenerational Report, released last month, forecasts that the federal budget will remain in deficit for the next 40 years, with tax receipts falling short of expenditure. A major headwind for the federal budget is the expected decline in corporate tax receipts from the mining sector amid lower commodity prices. The Australian Taxation Office’s
If you are sceptical about Australia’s energy transition, which I am less so than LVO, these charts will really piss you off. The following data uses EDGAR, the EU carbon tracker, World Bank and Climate Change Authority data. How is Australia’s gross carbon emissions abatement going? We are an absolute bludger. How is it that
According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) leading house price index, which is used by the Reserve Bank, home prices nationally have collapsed back to late 2017 levels in real terms following a near five-year decline: New data from Cotality likewise shows that New Zealand’s house price crash has reasserted itself following
Iron ore is crashing. Except it isn’t. The freight premium is coming out. C5 has dropped $6 from the peak in the last few weeks. Adjusted for normal freight costs, CFR is roughly stable around $87. Forward indicators remain poor. Steel demand is pancaked. Steel production improved to catastrophic. Iron ore is growing at ports
Treasurer “Spin” Jim Chalmers defended the federal government’s inflation record ahead of Tuesday’s 0.25% rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Chalmers insisted at a press conference with Finance Minister Katy Gallagher on Monday that the war in the Middle East, not government spending, was driving inflation. Spin Jim also insisted that other
TME with the update on market positioning. The upside pain trade Markets have spent weeks preparing for more pain. Positioning has been slashed, policy pessimism is near a 30-year extreme, tech is being sold and Russell exposure is washed out. Yet equities have refused to properly crack. Now rates may be starting to offer the
War headlines today. Houthis bomb Riyadh refinery. Iran bombs three tankers over weekend. US bullies Europe into release of 100mb of inventory. China stops product exports. Windward total oil transits last week were at about 80mb. If we add Fujairah, Yanbu and North American export offsets, we are down about 2mb/d. It has clearly improved
Like clockwork with the release of each of month’s inflation data from the ABS, there is a social media post from Treasurer Jim Chalmers talking up how either the success in fighting inflation is down to Labor or how the lack of effective inflation fighting is down to external forces or other elements beyond their
To date, Australia’s housing correction has been driven by the two largest capital cities, Sydney and Melbourne. As illustrated below, Cotality’s daily dwelling values index has recorded a 6.6% decline from its peak across the five major capital city markets, led by declines of 8.8% recorded in Sydney and 7.4% in Melbourne: However, Cotality’s daily
Auction clearance rates have historically been a strong leading indicator of dwelling value growth, especially in major capital city markets. As CBA shows below, this year’s auction clearance rates have tracked well below those of 2025 and 2024, reflecting the sharp decline in the nation’s dwelling values. Dwelling values across the five major capital cities
Below is CBA economist Lucinda Jerogin’s round-up of this week’s economic and housing data: Key points: The RBA hiked the cash rate 25bps on Tuesday to 4.60%, its highest level in 15 years. The decision was unanimous. We expect for the RBA to be on hold from here, but risks are heavily skewed to another
International Reading: Most Americans blame Trump for high prices as his economic approval hits new low, AP-NORC poll shows – AP News RFK Jr Announcing That AI Is Now Better Than Human Doctors – Futurism The Fed Is Caught Between Inflation, $40 Trillion in Debt and Global Risk – Real Narratives Credit card delinquency in
The 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, released in July, revealed that: Oil consumption hit a record high. Natural gas consumption hit a record high. Coal consumption hit a record high. Fossil fuels accounted for 86% of total energy supplied. Carbon emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels hit a record high. Last week, the
Aussie bonds are attracting wider interest. Australia’s benchmark bond yield looks poised to fall below its US counterpart for the first time in over a year, as expectations for monetary policy in the two economies diverge. With bets growing that the Reserve Bank of Australia is nearing the end of its tightening cycle while the
Roy Morgan’s latest mortgage stress survey shows that 32.3% of mortgage households were at risk of mortgage stress in August, with 22.7% extremely at risk: Mortgage stress was tracking at its highest levels since the peak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in mid-2008, when the official cash rate hit 7%. The Reserve Bank of
Something is starting to break. And it is Europe. TME has more. The puke SX5E has printed two aggressive bearish candles in a row and is now testing the make-or-break 6200 area in futures. The long-term trend line comes in around here as well, while the index is breaking below the 100-day moving average today.
Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock recently suggested that the unemployment rate may need to rise to 5%, up from 4.6% currently, to ease inflation pressures in Australia. Bullock said that a higher unemployment rate could ease the strain on the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services, which is currently tight because of high demand
DXY gapped into the stratosphere overnight. It is goodbye, EUR. AUD kept falling and is approaching critical .69 cents support. Brent roared. Gold held on. Metals are letting go. Another major growth warning. Big miners are in trouble. EM stocks even more so. As junk gapped into madness. The long-end yield backup has slowed for
War headlines today. Iran bombs VLCC in Hormuz. On fire. Houthis rain hell on Saudi Arabia. Third US carrier, USS Theodore Roosevelt, headed for Iran. Netanyahu/Trump blame Iran for hijack. There has been a slight easing in US fuel prices but we are still at noeblees levels with crazy cracks. Australia is about to enjoy
As commentators and banks alike continue to revise housing price forecasts down, Australians are increasingly wondering how much further prices could fall. With the release of the latest revised housing price data from Cotality, it can now be confirmed that housing prices are falling significantly faster than initially believed, particularly in the locales worst impacted
The latest dwelling completions data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that only 173,400 homes were built in the year to March 2026, 66,600 (28%) fewer than the 240,000 annual run rate required to meet the National Housing Accord’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years. Over the first 21 months
The private credit market, which has grown to around $200 billion in assets, has become a key lender to developers as traditional banks pull back from construction lending due to tightening risk appetites. However, the recent collapse of property developer Bathla Group has thrown the sector into disarray. Bathla Group entered voluntary administration in late
In this week’s podcast, we’re exploring how direct indexing can give investors more control over their portfolios — allowing you to choose the companies you own, manage your exposure to different themes, and tailor your investments around your own goals and preferences. We unpack what makes direct indexing different from traditional funds and how greater
