Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The ferrous jaws must close, and slowly they are. Scuttlebutt is bearish. Chinese steel mills trimmed purchases ahead of the extended Lunar New Year holiday while preparing for scheduled maintenance, dampening near-term demand. Port activity in China also softened, with industry data showing lower transaction volumes, suggesting mills are relying less on spot cargoes. Port
Every day, the Albanese government’s Housing Accord target of building 1.2 million homes over five years slips further from reach. Data released on Tuesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the rate of monthly dwelling approvals in trend terms stalled at just under 16,500 for the month of December, 3,500 below the
The most recent Roy Morgan Poll reflects the ongoing turmoil among the opposition parties. With 30.5% of the vote still going to the ALP, One Nation is up 2.5% to 25% ahead of the Liberals, the Greens are down 2% to 18%, and 14% of voters back Independents and Other Parties, including 2.5% who favour
Overnight saw a big swing in volatility all based on US markets as AI concerns on earnings sent half of the NASDAQ down while a rally in precious metals gave undollars a lift against USD across the board. Then we saw a big bounce in oil prices with more speculation about the Trump regime bombing
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday lifted the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% to 3.85%, adding around $110 to the monthly cost of servicing the average new mortgage of $700,000. To make matters worse, the forecasts presented in the February Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) show that the RBA does not expect
Warren Hogan, managing director of EQ Economics, published an article in the Australian Financial Review arguing that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy board has failed in its core mandate of price stability, allowing inflation to remain above target for five consecutive years. Hogan claims this failure stems from poor forecasting, weak leadership,
Asian share markets are bouncing back strongly on the back of a solid US manufacturing PMI print overnight and a possible resolution to the latest Epstein distraction as Iran deliberates on shutting down its nuclear capabilities. The USD remains strong against the undollars amid its recent resurgence with Euro heading below the 1.18 handle while
As widely tipped by financial markets (~70% probability), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unanimously voted to lift the official cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85%: The increase will add roughly $110 to the monthly cost of servicing the average-sized $700,000 new mortgage. In arriving at its decision, the RBA noted that inflation “picked
Chart from TME. Why have stocks ignored collapsing trade, the Chinese crash, anarcho-imperialism, civil, fiscal and monetary instability in the US? In a word: earnings. Kicking. Arse. Better still to come if AI delivers. Carving it up. Easy money. Roaring economy. Trending off planet. M&A bouncing. Not much to criticise there.
It is hard to believe it was ten years ago that the Kouk (who?) fought a tremendous battle against conservative commentators over plain packaging for durries. He claimed a mighty victory. Tobacco consumption has plummeted a staggering 17.5 per cent since the plain packaging laws were introduced in late 2012. Stick that in your pipe
The federal government has set a target of 50% of all car sales being electric by 2030, whereas AEMO assumes near total electrification of the vehicle fleet by the 2040s. Current sales trends are underwhelming. The chart below shows that battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales (green line below) failed to launch in 2025, with only
The Albanese government is on track to collect far more personal income tax than expected this financial year, as higher‑than‑forecast inflation pushes workers into higher tax brackets. Treasury forecasts inflation of 3.75% for 2025–26. However, CPI has already risen 2.7% in the first six months, meaning the full‑year figure is likely to be higher. The Reserve
Charts from TME. ‘Tis a mighty bust. But has not reached the 100day MA. RSI collapse. Not a CME story. A China story. More. Chinese traders, including homemakers and hedge funds, are experiencing big losses after a record rally in gold ended with a sharp market reversal. The reversal was triggered in part by the
In the decade to June 2025, NSW’s population expanded by 977,703, driven by 884,772 net overseas migration (NOM). The state lost 245,211 residents to other jurisdictions over the last decade, which was mostly offset by a natural increase of 403,898 (i.e., births minus deaths). With NSW’s fertility rate of only 1.55 births per woman, most
Historically, a “lame duck” U.S. President is an incumbent who is in their final term, has seen dramatically reduced political influence and congressional support, or has lost their reelection campaign. Currently, on paper, Trump has significant power, with Republicans holding the White House, Congress, and the Senate. But by mid-November, with the midterm elections looming,
When the Albanese government came to office, it quickly raised Australia’s permanent migrant intake by 30,000 to 195,000 annually. It also raised the humanitarian intake by around 7,000 annually to 20,000. The permanent migration intake has since been reduced back to 185,000. So, along with the 20,000 annual humanitarian intake, the official permanent migrant program
ANZ job ads are in their strongest surge in three years. Labour demand often rises at the beginning of the year (the job advertisements series grew 6.2% m/m in January 2019 and 3.9% m/m in January 2017). The increase in January comes after the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% and employment increased by 65.2k in
Overnight saw the release of a very strong US ISM manufacturing PMI print which gave industrial stocks on Wall Street a big lift and will likely spread to a risk on mood here in Asia on the open. The USD saw a small lift against most of the undollars as Euro fell below the 1.18
Exclusively from national treasure, Gerard Minack. Australian rates and sticky inflation Expectations for RBA policy have swung 180° through the past three months, from easing to tightening, as inflation lifted through the second half of 2025. There is noise in the data so I’m not as sure as the market that the RBA will tighten
DXY is back in a big short squeeze. AUD was dumped then pumped. CNY supportive. JPY not. Slaughter. More slaughter. Miners held on. EM still coming off. Junk no bueno. The Warsh effect on yields will not please the boss. Stocks rebounded moderately. In data, the ISM popped. Relative US growth is surging versus the
Australia’s 5% deposit scheme has triggered a surge in first‑home buyer activity, but mortgage brokers warn the same policy is now likely to hurt those buyers the most if interest rates rise on Tuesday. Loan Market data shows a 49% jump in first‑home buyer mortgage applications in October (when the scheme began). Activity slowed in November but
Its a sea of red across Asian share markets as margin calls from the precious metal collapse cause equities to fall over although there was a fair amount of regional data that added to the volatility, including poor Chinese PMI prints and weird moves on Korean markets. The USD remains on a tear against the
Jennie George is a former president of the ACTU and a former Labor federal MP who represented Throsby from 2001 to 2010. Recently, George has taken a stand against her former colleagues to exert pressure on the Albanese government regarding gas policy, renewables subsidies, and energy security. In a comment published in The Australian last
The unsung depression in the Chinese economy continues. It is supposed to be enjoying a manufacturing boom, yet the manufacturing PMI has averaged a decline of 49.7% after the COVID reopening, contracting 27 out of 36 months. Celebrated exports have done far worse. The Services PMI is not much better and is trending down. Led
With One Nation surging in the polls, another Coalition MP is reportedly seeking defection, according to Sky News. Barnaby Joyce has confirmed that One Nation will announce a major political defection within 24 hours but refused to reveal the identity of the new recruit, saying the announcement would come from leader Pauline Hanson. One Nation
