Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Australia’s construction and property leaders warn that the country cannot meet its housing and infrastructure targets without more skilled migrant workers. McNab Group founder Michael McNab says political debate on migration has become sensationalised and disconnected from economic reality. Productivity has fallen so far that Australia now needs more workers to build the same volume
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, is joined by Leith van Onselen of MacroBusiness to examine why Australia’s housing downturn could have much further to run. With prices now falling across much of the country and forecasts pointing to a potential double-digit correction, we unpack what’s driving the decline, how
If you think the oil shock is not impacting global inflation, look no further than China for the counter-argument. The CPI is suddenly raging at 4.8% annualised in August. In August 2026 , the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% year-on-year . Specifically, urban areas saw a 0.8% increase, while rural areas experienced a 0.7% rise. Food prices decreased by 1.4% , while non-food prices
In May, the Migrant Justice Institute released a report revealing that Australia has a systemic, economy‑wide architecture of migrant worker exploitation, with nearly two-thirds of migrant employees being underpaid. Based on 9,963 migrant workers surveyed in 2024 across six languages: 65% paid below legal entitlements 36% paid below the national minimum wage 25% underpaid by $10+ per
I did warn that the spineless dog would do this. The Albanese government is set to retreat from its demand that Australia’s gas exporters set aside a fixed 20 per cent of their supplies for domestic use and will instead require them to put “up to” one fifth of their production into the local market.
According to EY’s annual State Budget Monitor, the eastern state governments are especially reliant on stamp duty receipts, which comprise 17% of revenue in Victoria, 16% in NSW, 15% in Queensland, and 15% in Tasmania: The sharp downturn in the property market, therefore, threatens to hammer state budgets at a time when they are drowning
DXY appears weak. AUD now has a dual North Asian tailwind. Oil is pressuring gold. Base metals are blowing off. Miners not so much. EM stocks are hanging on. But US junk is breaking and will widen all crapola spreads in due course. This is a major warning signal for equities. The US 2-30 curve
War headlines today. Comedy: Trump says war will end immediately after the midterms. Iran announces a “20 for 2” response strategy in huge escalation doctrine. Iran demands an end to strikes, an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, an end to the blockade of Yemen, and the release of $24 billion in frozen assets in order to
Since the Albanese government came to power, one metric it has pointed to most as a sign of its economic management is the nation’s unemployment rate. In trend terms, the unemployment rate currently sits at 4.5%, well below the 5.2% recorded in the final month of 2019, but higher than the low of September 2022,
Property developer Bathla Group entered voluntary administration late last month after running out of cash, leaving $3.6 billion in private‑credit debt, 2,000 homes mid‑construction, and 15,000 planned dwellings in limbo. Around 40 private credit funds are owed more than $3 billion, including PAG, Balmain, Trilogy, Centuria Bass, Ray White Capital, and La Trobe Financial. Some lenders
The political class in Australia has truly ‘jumped the shark’. Last week, Celia Perkins, Deputy Secretary of Security and Estate at the Department of Defence, opened a public Senate committee hearing by reading a prepared statement that attempted to prohibit the reposting of Defence evidence on social media and the reproduction of the likeness of
LVO is rightly concerned that NSW may run out of power. The problem is imminent, and it comes with a variety of risks. I’ve created a single master chart to illustrate these issues. This includes data centre demand. The three largest risks are further delays to Snowy Hydro 2.0, Central-West Orana transmission community resistance, and
The Australian has reported on the “unprecedented” demand for data centres in Sydney, which are growing at a “rapid pace”. 20 GW of connection enquiries have been lodged — double NSW’s current peak demand. However, Western Sydney’s transmission network has “limited remaining capacity”. Transgrid, Australia’s largest electricity transmission company, warns of “reliability issues and supply constraints”
You wouldn’t know it from headline prices, but iron ore is in trouble. Subtracting the $9, at least, to get to normal FOB prices, owing to shipping rates that are double the normal level, gives us low-90s prices for CFR. Iron ore has not budged for three months. The news flow is poor. The latest
The August NAB Business Survey, which is based on responses from 24 to 31 August, was released on Tuesday, with conditions turning negative and falling to their lowest level since the pandemic as profitability collapses. Business confidence also fell in response and remains deeply negative. Falling profitability was the primary driver of the deterioration in
Bloxo elegantly captured the RBA’s recent choices as between stagflation and recession. It has chosen the latter. Yesterday, two key governors hit the hustings to warn folks that more tightening is coming. The first was the adorable Sarah Hunter, Assistant governor (Economic). I think the Board have been pretty clear. The staff as well. Certainly
Today’s headlines. If you think this war isn’t escalating, you’re not paying attention. Houthis rain hell upon Saudi oil and military with dozens of missiles and drones. US rains hell on Iranian tankers around Kharg Island. Iran fires over 40 missiles on US ships and Jordanian bases, including cluster munitions, and warns crews of all
When Tehran first throttled maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz in early March, oil market analysts counted the limited number of days until the release of Western strategic reserves would prove insufficient to make up for the loss of supply and prices would rocket. While it’s certainly true that Western strategic oil reserves have
Cotality’s daily dwelling index has hit a new milestone, with values across the five major capital city markets now down by 5% from their April 2026 peak: The largest decline in 40 years of records was the October 2017 to May 2019 episode, when values at the 5-city aggregate level fell by 8.6%. The quarterly
Australia’s construction pipeline is bigger than ever. Following decades of mass immigration, Australia is suffering from a chronic housing shortage estimated by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver to be between 200,000 and 300,000 dwellings. Australia’s current rate of housing construction is tracking at only 173,400 in the year to March 2026, well below last decade’s
TME on the crazy calm in equities. The current equilibrium won’t hold, argues Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen. Rates markets are still underpricing the inflation pressure ahead, with only modest tightening cycles priced across central banks. Either inflation rolls over, or rates need to move higher. If it is the latter, risk assets will eventually have
According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) leading house price index, which is used by the Reserve Bank, home prices nationally have collapsed back to early 2018 levels in real terms following a near five-year decline: New data from Cotality likewise shows that New Zealand’s house price crash has reasserted itself following
There are loads of articles around today claiming a new iron ore boom as the price moves above $100. These are completely wrong. The only thing booming in iron ore is shipping rates, as diesel cracks go nuts. This is absorbed into the daily CFR price, which the market generally uses, but it is a
In late 2023, it was revealed that the former head of the Victorian transport department (i.e., from 2015 to 2018), Richard Bolt, told Victorian Ombudsman Deborah Glass that he was excluded from the early stages of the Suburban Rail Loop’s (SRL) development and cautioned that it would be a waste of public funds given that
My god, it has taken 15 years for the MSM to catch on, but it finally has. From the time-warped ABC. “All roads lead to Santos’s GLNG project,” says Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial. Kavonic, one of Australia’s most respected oil and gas analysts, says the tensions stem from the once-in-a-generation
