Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Amid an already challenging environment for the nation’s housing market, the latest figures from Cotality suggest prospective sellers face ever greater competition to sell, even as fewer owners put their properties on the market. According to Cotality data, total listings nationally reached 145,570 in mid-October, up 19.1% from this time last year. This increase occurred
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gave an interview at Citi’s Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney on Wednesday. Hauser warned that Australia’s “inflation outlook looks materially worse than we projected in the August report”, that “inflation has been high for a very long time now”, and that “people in
TME has the setup for equities. Something has to give Nasdaq is approaching a critical crossroads. Tech is dramatically underperforming small caps, credit stress is finally catching up with equities, and volatility has surged. Yet futures positioning remains stubbornly elevated, bearish hedges are quickly unwound, and NDX continues to hold its broader trading range. With
When former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull first announced the Snowy Hydro 2.0 pumped hydro project in 2017, it was billed as a $2 billion project capable of producing 2 megawatts of power on demand and 350,000 megawatt-hours of storage by 2021. Snowy Hydro 2.0 has been delayed several times since its announcement. The last
The gas cartel is busy distracting you with complete garbage. Labor needs to answer how its gas reservation scheme will work in times when gas is abundant, Origin Energy chief executive Frank Calabria has warned, or risk killing off incentives for future supply. Labor has proposed the biggest intervention in Australia’s gas industry in decades,
Two reports suggest Australia’s residential construction market is weakening significantly amid falling prices, rising interest rates, and the federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. Stockland, the country’s largest listed residential developer, reported its lowest level of housing inquiries in at least seven years. Higher interest rates, worsening affordability, rising construction costs
Four interest rate hikes this year have placed Australians under severe mortgage stress. Roy Morgan’s mortgage stress survey suggests the risk of mortgage stress nationally is at its highest level since early 2008, when the cash rate was above 7%. The percentage of household income spent on mortgage payments is also tracking at its highest
The latest iron ore data has stabilised. As shipping costs fall, the real CFR price has been rising. We are back to around $86. With steel prices holding steady, the recent falls in iron ore are clearly driven by supply. The latest data from Guinea shows a face-ripping week for Simandou loadings. The Pilbara killer
Latest war headlines. Two tankers ablaze in Hormuz, says Iran. Not so, says the US. Talks progress, say US allies. Not so, says Iran. White House: No attack before midterms but third carrier arrives. Ukraine attacks Nikolskoye oil pumping and dispatch station. Dated Brent rose slightly. Brent futures eased. Diesel was firm. LNG eased. The
Last week, in an interview with News 24, Home Affairs and Immigration Minister Tony Burke refused to concede the Albanese government had made a mistake by allowing net overseas migration to surge following the reopening of Australia’s international borders. Burke stated that it was “disingenuous” to judge past immigration decisions with the benefit of hindsight.
CBA chief economist Luke Yeaman has written a report warning that Australia is approaching the most difficult phase of the inflation battle. CBA’s base case remains that slowing growth, falling house prices and rising unemployment will eventually bring inflation down and allow the RBA to pause. However, unlike earlier in the year, the bank now
A few months ago, Perth looked like the nation’s last remaining housing stronghold, with values holding firm while they crumbled across the rest of Australia. However, revisions from Cotality, combined with deteriorating conditions, now show Perth leading the nation’s house price bust. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, Perth’s seasonally adjusted monthly
TME on the market setup. The shock Friday’s explosion in VIX and VVIX was nothing short of extreme. The price action had all the hallmarks of forced deleveraging, with risk managers hitting the brakes and traders scrambling for tail protection at virtually any price. This was panic hedging, not ordinary volatility buying. Source: LSEG Workspace
The Grattan Institute argues that Australia’s GST system is no longer delivering the stable revenue base it was designed to provide for state governments. With state debt rising rapidly and GST revenues declining as a share of the economy, Grattan proposes a major tax reform package: increasing the GST from 10% to 15%, extending it
Not really. The great buildout is over, so its impact on commodities has faded. And it never added much to net global demand in anything else because the entire thing is based around exports. To the extent that it does matter, growth in industrial production (IP) increased from 5.2% yoy in August to 5.5% yoy
The Victorian government’s financial report for 2025-26, released last week, shows that the state’s net debt rose to $160.7 billion during the financial year. Operating expenses rose $8 billion from the previous fiscal year to $112 billion, and $891 million above the budget forecast, driven mainly by rising wage costs. The state’s net debt is
Some might say it is a Harbour Bridge-like project, visionary in its scale, and that it will remain in use far into the future. Others are saying it is a new ghost airport. Western Sydney International, a new A$5.6 billion airport, will handle its first passenger flight on Sunday, but its commercial prospects are in
War headlines today. IRGC threatens to cut Gulf internet cables. No ships bombed! Egypt adds defensive troops to Saudi. Dated Brent bottomed. Brent futures held Friday’s breakout. US diesel also held gains. LNG is the new oil. Notably in Asia. Australia is squandering another tax windfall. Trita Parsi is really excellent and not at all
Amidst an already challenging set of circumstances for the nation’s residential construction sector, the latest Housing Industry Association (HIA) home sales figures have provided another unwelcome reality check for the Albanese government’s “aspiration” to build 1.2 million new homes over its 5 year ‘Housing Accord’ period. At a national level in the September quarter, new
Pity the poor university vice-chancellors who draw a third or a half of their students from overseas. Immigration is now firmly on the political agenda—for all major political parties. And the policy choices made today will reverberate through university admissions for the rest of the decade. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation put the cat among the
Unbelievably, the federal parliament doesn’t allocate political staffers proportionally based on the number of seats held. As a result, we have a ridiculous situation whereby One Nation has been allocated only 0.83 staff per parliamentarian, far less than all other parties: The Senate on Thursday voted down a One Nation attempt to advance an inquiry
Ross Gittins was one of the few mainstream media commentators who took a principled stand on immigration. If you search for “immigration” on Ross Gittins’ website, you’ll find a slew of articles arguing against a “Big Australia” for economic, environmental, and liveability reasons (see sample below). Gittins sensibly argued that immigration was the “cheap and
Iron ore bottomed out Friday. We are headed into seasonal tailwinds before long. Chinese steel exports were up 0.3% YOY in September. YTD is down 2.4%. This headwind is fading. Chinese iron ore imports were down 5.5% YOY but up 4.1% YTD. Steel demand was better this week. Production remains terrible. Iron ore inventories are
TME on the macro. As good as it gets The best of the 2026 macro backdrop may already be behind us. Growth expectations are being marked down, financial conditions are no longer providing the same tailwind, and earnings momentum is losing breadth. Things aren’t necessarily getting bad, but they are incrementally getting less good. And
On 7 October, the High Court ruled against the already approved expansion of the Mount Pleasant thermal coal mine in NSW. The High Court ruled that the NSW government regulator “was required to consider imposing conditions to minimise to the greatest extent practicable all greenhouse gas emissions, including scope 3 emissions”. The rule was absurd
