Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
As the falls in Australian housing prices continue to grow in size and scope, many Australians are increasingly wondering how far prices could fall before they eventually bounce back. Across the Tasman in New Zealand, we have a real-life example of what happens when an overvalued housing market takes a dive without policymakers riding to
This week’s stronger-than-expected CPI inflation print from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has economists tipping near-term interest rate hikes. To recap, the policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation printed at 3.6% year-over-year, above forecasts of 3.5%: The monthly and quarterly pace of trimmed mean inflation has also accelerated: Australia now has one of the strongest-growing trimmed
It’s farewell to a radiant world, reports Bloomie. Singaporean police raided the local office of iron ore trader Radiant World last week and questioned some of the company’s employees as part of an investigation into the business’s transactions after counterparties raised allegations of falsified documents. A number of significant commodity dealers have severed their connections
The Victorian Auditor-General’s Office (VAGO) has released a scathing report on the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) project’s funding, cost and schedule. VAGO uncovered a hidden 1% annual fare levy that has been applied for more than a year without public disclosure. The levy was introduced in secret under former premier Jacinta Allan as a 38‑year
Data centre capex is driving the private business investment outlook mad. The third estimate from the ABS for 2026/27 jumped over $25bn, or 1% of GDP. We haven’t seen numbers like these since the China boom. But it’s not mining this time, though it firmed nicely from Estimate 2. It’s data centres that have ripped.
The Market Ear examines the history of midterms. Upside pain Tech has been aggressively de-grossed, NDX is bouncing from support and Nvidia has once again reinforced the structural AI capex story. With QQQ vol cheap, software breaking out and the calendar becoming increasingly supportive, the ingredients for renewed upside pain are falling into place. Jackson
War headlines today. Saudi Arabia appears to be preparing for a renewed war against the Houthis. Qatar’s foreign minister and prime minister met Iran’s President to discuss ongoing efforts at de-escalation in the region. Iran’s security chief, Moshen Rezaei, is preparing a list of conditions to present to the US to reopen the Strait of
The stars are aligning for immigration cuts. As reported in The Australian, the Albanese government is finalising measures to the immigration system, focusing on international students, visitor visas and onshore applicants: After four months of devising stronger visa requirements and enforcement tools to help the Albanese government meet its NOM forecasts, Mr Burke is expected
The Australian housing market is facing a severe combination of factors that will very likely lead to the largest price correction in living memory. The ‘perfect storm’ of conditions can be summarised as follows: Overvaluation – This correction started with valuations at record highs. The highest mortgage rates in 15 years, which are likely to
Following Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected trimmed-mean inflation by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which led several major banks to forecast imminent interest rate hikes, the ABS on Thursday reported strong household spending in July. Household spending rose by 1.1% in July to be 7.0% higher year-over-year, the strongest annual spending growth since June 2023. Both discretionary
The latest version of AEMO’s flagship report, the 2026 ISP released in June, noted the following about offshore wind [my emphasis]: “Supported by government policies, 9 GW of offshore wind is projected to be online by 2040. However, as offshore wind is two-thirds more expensive than onshore wind to build and connect, no more is
In this week’s podcast, we ask whether Scott Bessent is losing control of the U.S. bond market — as long-term Treasury yields surge despite government intervention. We unpack what’s driving the bond selloff, from soaring deficits and a $40 trillion national debt to inflation risks and growing Treasury supply, and whether Bessent’s attempts to push
A peace deal has broken out in Australia’s conflict over power for data centres. The Albanese government has reached a settlement with Queensland and the Northern Territory on regulations governing the rapidly growing data centre industry, allowing both jurisdictions to use gas (and coal, though that won’t happen behind the metre). Queensland and the NT
It took Melbourne 170 years to grow to a population of 3.7 million in 2005. In 2003, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its Population Projections 2002 to 2101, which included a baseline (Series B) forecast of Australia’s population reaching 26.4 million by 2051, based on an assumed net overseas migration (NOM) of 100,000
TME asks the question. The semis contradiction The semis tape is sending a very different message from the fundamentals. Credit stress has picked up, token prices have collapsed and SOX has been losing ground relative to both software and MAG7. Yet underneath the price action, the fundamental AI infrastructure cycle remains remarkably strong. Cloud economics
Below is a chart based on Education.gov.au data that shows the share of student enrolments by course: As you can see, the most popular course choice for international students is commerce, which accounted for 34.3% of enrolments in 2024, compared with 14.2% of domestic enrolments. Universities also like selling commerce degrees to international students because
The bank is Goldman Sachs, and it is hard to argue against. The bank notes that the headline monthly CPI rose 1.0% month over month, with year-over-year growth dropping 30 basis points to 3.5% yoy, above both our and market estimates (GSe: +3.1% yoy; BBG: +3.3% yoy). Worse, the ABS monthly trimmed mean measure grew
News on the war is benign. Trump said his measures “are effective” and he is “not in a hurry” to do a deal while doing the TACO on the measures with Gulf states.\ Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, says the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Qatar’s Prime Minister and
Victorian Premier Ben Carroll has confirmed that the 26km Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) East between Cheltenham and Box Hill will proceed with construction by 2035. Carroll aims to save $2 billion on the project’s cost, now expected to be $34.5 billion, by scaling back infrastructure, including removing underground interchanges at Box Hill and Glen Waverley,
As polling in the realm of Australian federal politics increasingly shows the distribution of the primary vote as a three-horse race, many have been left wondering how One Nation has come from relative obscurity to at times lead the pack in terms of primary vote. As part of a report authored by Labor strategist Bruce
People often wonder just how long a “temporary” immigrant can legally stay in Australia. For the determined stayer, the answer is generally around 15 years. And that’s if the immigrant is single. Add marriage or a child into the mix, and a temporary immigrant’s Australian journey can be stretched out to 20 years. And until
This week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes were unapologetically hawkish, with inflation risks tilted to the upside and the RBA considering a rate hike at its August meeting. Wednesday’s CPI inflation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirmed the RBA’s caution, with headline CPI at 3.5% (versus 3.2% expected) and the policy-relevant
TME with the charts. Short term stretched Gold has gone vertical, leaving several of its usual macro relationships behind. The question now is whether this is simply an overshoot that needs correcting, or a sign that the structural gold trade has entered a new phase. Near-term risks are building, but getting outright bearish may still
I argued on Monday that, instead of importing hundreds of thousands of migrants each year to address labour shortages, Australia should abolish the income test for the aged pension to encourage more seniors to enter the workforce. Despite two decades of extreme immigration, which saw Australia’s population grow 2.5 times faster than the OECD average,
Australia’s worst-kept secret is out. The energy transition is meaningfully behind. At the current build rate, we will hit about 75% renewables by 2030, versus the planned 82%, a shortfall of roughly 8 GW of wind and solar (mostly the former). AEMO puts the shortfall at up to 12 GW. Basically: solar is largely on
