Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Tim Toohey of Yarra Capital Management argues that the Reserve Bank is misdiagnosing Australia’s inflation problem as primarily one of excess private-sector demand and, as a result, risks keeping monetary policy too tight for too long. Toohey’s central claim is that while there is indeed excess demand, inflationary pressures are increasingly coming from areas that
In the rates that stopped the nation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) today raised the official cash rate (OCR) to an 18-year high of 4.85%. The decision was widely anticipated by economists and financial markets. However, there was some dissent within the RBA, with six board members voting for the hike and three against.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) preferred inflation measure, trimmed mean inflation, rose from 3.6% to 3.7% in the September quarter, exceeding the RBA’s forecast of 3.5%. With trimmed mean inflation tracking well above the RBA’s target band of 2% to 3%, financial markets are pricing in an 80% probability that the official cash rate
Major banks CBA, NAB and HSBC have downgraded their outlooks for the Australian economy amid rising interest rates and inflation, along with falling housing prices and turnover. CBA forecasts another per capita recession: Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at CBA, has slashed the bank’s GDP growth forecast to just 1.0% in 2027, down from
Iron ore has been holding for a few days, but the free fall in HRC is a bad omen. My freight-adjusted CFR estimate is hovering around $83. Simandou is going berserk. In mid-October, it shipped a record 1.58mt in a single week. October itself is on track for about 5.5mt. My aggressive ramp-up forecast is
The recent federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax have sharply reduced investor credit growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September credit aggregates data reported monthly investor credit growth of only 0.24%, a sharp contraction from the recent peak of 0.96% in December 2025. Quarterly investor credit growth was only 1.0%,
War headlines today. Talks progressing. Iran and US both remove red lines. Israel election still uncertain. Brent and diesel cracks fell sharply. LNG fell as well. The latest oil shipment numbers have risen as Iranian attacks have fallen. Global inventories will keep pressure on prices in the medium term. That said, in the short, the market
Toward the start of each month, Cotality makes revisions to its housing price index, adjusting it for the developments not previously captured in its data. As the charts below of past revisions in relatively recent months indicate, when housing prices are falling significantly, the downward revisions can be sizable. In this, the latest revisions which
Global diesel prices are tracking at record highs in real, inflation-adjusted terms as conflicts in the Middle East and Russia continue to disrupt refinery operations and export routes. The wars have damaged some refineries while leaving others unable to maintain normal output because they cannot source enough crude oil or export the fuels they produce.
The Australian Public Service has expanded by about 25% since the Albanese government took office in June 2022. The budget papers show that staffing costs are expected to be $19.6 billion higher over the next four years than previously anticipated, with further increases expected from upcoming enterprise bargaining wage agreements. An AFR analysis of the
For months, I have been calling for the abolition of the pension income test so seniors can take on additional work without losing access to the Aged Pension. A broad coalition of groups recently backed the call, arguing that retaining more people in the workforce longer reduces the need to fill skill gaps with migrants. ABC
Victoria has legislated a target to source 95% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2035. This is one of Australia’s and the world’s most ambitious renewable energy goals, designed to accelerate the stateâs transition away from cheap brown coal and toward cleaner energy sources such as wind, solar, and storage. The Renewable Energy (Jobs
Gold broke through $4000 support Friday night. This is starting to look ugly. CFTC is still long. Robots have sold more. I am still cautious, but nibbling here makes short-term sense. The major issue remains yields and the Iran war, and any post-midterm escalation. Bonds will be bid as the market prices in a growth shock,
On Tuesday (Wednesday Australian time), the American people will go to the polls for one of the most consequential midterm elections in living memory, as President Donald Trump’s Republican Party attempts to defend their control of Congress and the Senate. At this stage it’s not looking favourable for the President, with aggregate polling analysis from
Once again, Cotality’s official dwelling value results for November have been heavily downgraded, with values falling far more sharply than its daily dwelling values index suggests. Let me explain. Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, which tracks home values across the five major capital city markets, recorded a 4.1% quarterly decline at the 5-city aggregate level:
US midterm elections donât usually determine the direction of markets on their own. But this time, the result could have an unusually important influence on how much room Donald Trump has to pursue his economic agenda in the second half of his term. For investors, there are four broad scenarios worth considering. 1. Republican Win:
The bottom has well and truly fallen out of Australia’s auction market, with Cotality’s final clearance rate for last weekend collapsing to only 43.6% nationally, the worst result since late June: Auction volumes were also tracking 42% lower than the same weekend last year. Every capital that held auctions last week had a lower clearance
International Reading: Trump fired him. The âDEI Watchlistâ shamed him. Then came 500 job rejections. – Washington Post As US ties fray, Europe plans first undersea cable link to Greenland – Ars Technica Half of Americans are skipping meals because grocery prices are so high, poll finds – Independent Banks and healthcare firms are outbidding
Twelve years of Labor government have completely destroyed Victoria’s finances. When the Andrews government took office in late 2014, Victoria’s net debt was only around $20 billion. Today it is more than $165 billion and is forecast to hit around $200 billion by the end of the decade. The per capita level of state debt
TME with a big roundup of equity charts. Soggy tech, Russell revived The market is starting to look very different beneath the surface. Nasdaq remains trapped in its trading range, tech volatility continues to command a substantial premium, and CDS stress refuses to disappear. Meanwhile, Russell has staged an impressive comeback, reclaiming its 200-day moving
In the years prior to the pandemic, Victoria came far closer to living up to the slogan which one emblazoned its number plates ‘The Place To Be’, than it does today. In 2018-19, it had the fastest growing rate of Gross State Product per capita of any of the major states, running at a rate
Gas reservation, such as it is, has finally arrived. A plan to ease power bills by pumping the Australian energy market with an oversupply of gas will now likely become law despite lingering concerns from industry and environmentalists. Labor’s domestic gas reservation scheme will force producers to set aside 20 per cent of their annual
The Albanese government is trying to censor debate via its Digital Duty of Care Bill, which would make the eSafety Commissioner the central regulator with significantly expanded powers to police what we say online. In a doorstop address at Parliament House on Thursday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the Digital Duty of Care Bill
DXY is still chopping wood while EUR tries. AUD has North Asian support. The twins keep dooming it up. Metals are serene. Miners not so much. EM is a concern. But junk is trying it on. As the long bond rallies. Stocks are confused. US growth was good in Q3, driven by AI capex to
War headlines today. Iran bombs 4 tankers. Houthis bomb Riyadh again. Russian diesel exports resume as Ukraine stops refinery attacks. Israel in political deadlock, Brent was up and diesel was down as cracks narrowed. LNG is a rocket. The Dem sweep odds firmed, even as diesel eased. RBC weighs in. While Democrats are favored to
