Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The ferrous complex is buckling. Steel output cuts are so far insufficient to lift steel prices. Iron must fall much further if steel mill margins are to be restored. Weekly data from consultancy firm Mysteel showed that fewer than 40% of the 247 surveyed steel mills were profitable, a level last seen in October 2024.
International Reading: Tesla shareholders approve Elon Muskâs $1 trillion pay package – CNN ‘As Ugly and Cruel As It Gets’: Trump Fights Order to Fully Fund November SNAP Benefits – Common Dreams The US national debt has just passed $38 trillion â and economists say they might never recover – News.com Tariff refunds are now
Asian equities are not doing well as markets start agitate over AI amid tonight’s looming US jobs report with the recent strength in the USD about to be tested. Continued volatility over trade wars amid the challenge to the Trump regime’s tariffs in the US Supreme Court are not helping either. The Australian dollar remains
When the Luxon government came to power in late 2023, it came with a promise to reinstate negative gearing as it previously was and reduce the holding period required for an investment property to be sold tax-free. Under the Ardern government, the duration an investor was required to hold a property for the gains to
Australians have suffered the deepest decline in real wages in recorded history. As of the June quarter of 2025, Australian real wages were tracking 6.0% below their June 2020 peak, at roughly the same level as December 2011. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) this week, which contains
The US jobs market is being buffeted by a number of forces. reduced government spending; tarrif shocks to margins recouped through labour efficiencies; investment uncertainty owing to the orange madman; and AI. The BLS labour market data is still down, but Revelio has a decent correlation with the NFP (roughly 0.75%), and it just printed
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) this week, which revised its medium-term unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, up from 4.3%. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, the RBA’s unemployment rate forecast to the end of 2027 is below the current unemployment rate of 4.5%: Thus,
The Deloitte Investment Monitor for the September quarter is out. Releasing the latest edition of the quarterly Investment Monitor report, Deloitte Access Economics Partner and lead author, Stephen Smith, said: âThe value of projects in the Investment Monitor database is just under $1.2 trillion in September, which is 7% higher than a year ago. âAs
We’ve suddenly lurched from AI is unstoppable to a growth scare as jobs data weakens. The Market Ear. Wishing & hoping & thinking & praying AI mentions on earnings calls have exploded tenfold. Retail traders are back chasing the Mag7. Tech giants are borrowing record sums to fund data centers. For now, optimism is profit
The Grattan Institute was at it again this week, claiming that Australia could magically solve its housing shortage if governments only permitted three-storey buildings to be allowed on any residential block in any suburb. âThe key problem is that state and territory land-use planning systems say ânoâ to new housing by default, and âyesâ only
The ferrous jaws must close. CIAS output for the last ten days of October crashed 9.8% with steel profitability. CISA steel inventories fell even faster, down 11.8% to 14.63mt. Yet steel could still not get a bid. The MacroMicro series, the source of which is not disclosed, rose in the past week. MySteel data for
Weak job market signals kicked the DXY rally in the teeth. AUD fell anyway on growth worries. CNY up. Gold is trying to base. AI metals were mixed. Miners popped. EM too. Junk is holding. Bonds rallied after dodgy US jobs data. Stocks are blowing the froth off. Adding to a potential reversal in
The Australian right is tearing itself apart over net zero. This is so foolish, and the answer is so simple. In fact, the party took the policy to the last election. The only reason this fight is still happening is that the energy transition is failing on affordability. This is giving climate and energy sceptics
Overnight saw the fear around the AI bubble rise again as Wall Street cratered, but also some reality crept in as private job data indicated more job cuts than growth in the US economy as the bite from the government shutdown continues to be felt. Meanwhile the Bank of England held fire in its latest
One month ago, I argued that the Australian Treasury’s modelling of Labor’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers was proof that Treasury had become a propaganda arm of the federal government. Under Labor’s First Home Guarantee scheme, which came into effect at the beginning of October, virtually all first home buyers can purchase a
Asian equities are doing well as markets start to price the possibility that the US tariffs maybe reversed following initial comments from the US Supreme Court challenge, although that institution is as compromised as Congress so don’t hold your breath. Only local stocks failed to perform well with the USD still firm against most of
The New Zealand economy continues to push through its housing bust and economic downturn. Yesterday, unemployment came in at 5.3% for the September quarter. The participation rate continues to fall to 70.3% as jobs become more scarce, holding down the headline unemployment rate. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the underutilisation rate
A new study, entitled “Perverse policy incentives and inferior economic outcomes” has exposed the failings of Australia’s migration system, particularly the student visa system. The study’s abstract is presented below: Between 1999 and 2012, Australia enacted a raft of policies that advantaged overseas students when applying for permanent residency, through the so-called 880 visa series. These policies
The Market Ear on a market trying to find sanity. Muted fear The sell-off has stretched across several sessions, yet volatilities have remained orderly, a stark contrast to Octoberâs sharp spike. The VIX reaction so far is muted, a âfearlessâ unwind where complacency lingers and volatility still refuses to show up. With little fear The
For a long time, I have bewailed the rise of fake left and its obsession with culture war issues like genitals, Palestine and racism. The substitution of this grab bag of identity politics for issues of class has led directly to the rise of the populist right in the shape of Donald Trump as American
ANZ has a few nice charts showing how labour costs have nothing to do with the recent inflation pop. The Q3 trimmed mean inflation print is likely to have been a âone-offâ. Several factors point to that conclusion, including business survey price and cost measures, the tendency for Q3 inflation prints in recent years to
In this weekâs podcast, Nucleus Wealthâs Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, examines the political storm hitting the healthcare sector â how comments and policy risks from Trump and RFK Jr. are weighing on valuations, whether todayâs beaten-down prices could present a long-term buying opportunity, or if lasting damage to the sectorâs economics and social licence
In 2023, the Victorian government committed to delivering 80,000 new homes annually for the next decade, with a target of 2 million by 2051. To achieve its target, the government has implemented an authoritarian plan to seize control of planning from local governments and create 50 activity zones designated for high-density apartments. The government last week
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was interviewed by The Australian, during which he was questioned about his plan for “Universal Childcare”. Albanese confirmed that this would be a major focus of the government for 2025 but remained guarded on exactly what that might look like in reality. âWeâll worry about that next year,â
Steel is in freefall again. This does not include yesterday, when rebar fell another 1.4% and HRC 1.2%. The ferrous jaws must close. Simandou is getting coverage everywhere now. Some nice images here from Bloomberg. But the AFR has a much better piece with some great detail. …most analysts are sceptical about the potential for
