Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
TME with the charts. Upside Panic Everywhere The upside chase in tech is becoming increasingly extreme. China tech is now starting to squeeze aggressively higher just as investors continue piling into NDX upside optionality and leveraged semiconductor exposure. Spot-up, vol-up dynamics remain firmly in place, downside hedging has become unusually cheap, and positioning across tech
The budget papers show that the Treasury’s base case is that the inflation rate will ease to 2.5% in 2027, after peaking at a forecast 5% in mid-2026. This is based on expectations that the price of crude oil will fall. However, the Treasury’s worst-case scenario modelling suggests that inflation will rise above 7% if
They have a fair point, but they are not making it well. News.com.au can reveal the Liberal leader will seek to frame the housing affordability crisis squarely within the context of migration. He will argue the reason why prices are out of control is migration, not negative gearing and capital gains tax breaks. Promising to
Australia’s housing market is entering a bear market driven by Sydney and Melbourne. Price growth has stalled, and auction clearance rates have declined to multi-year lows. Sales volumes have also fallen below the five-year average: On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on mortgage commitments, showing that the value of new housing
According to the most recent CommBank Household Spending Insights (HSI), household spending in Australia decreased in April as cautious spending in the entertainment category and unstable gas prices offset the increase in March. According to CommBank data, overall household spending decreased by 1.2% during the month, with a notable decline of 12.1% in transportation due
The AFR describes growing confusion and criticism surrounding the Albanese governmentâs proposed gas reservation scheme, which would require major LNG exporters to reserve 20 per cent of gas for the domestic Australian market from 2027. Initially, Bowen suggested the policy would apply only to uncontracted gas and spot cargoes. That interpretation would have largely exempted
Not much new overnight as POTUS heads to China. Dropsite sums up what there is. President Donald Trump: âI donât think about Americansâ financial situation.â Iran deputy FM says U.S. rejected proposal âbecause it is not a letter of surrender.â Pakistan denies sheltering Iranian military aircraft as U.S.-Iran ceasefire teeters. Classified U.S. intelligence shows Iran
Tuesday’s federal budget was another missed opportunity to fix the most egregious aspect of the nation’s tax system: the heavy reliance on taxing workers via personal income taxes. The budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains taxes will raise billions in additional tax revenue over time. But without offsetting changes to personal income tax
In the years since the Hawke government drew negative gearing to a close in June 1985, a great deal of mythology about the era and the impact of its removal has propagated. Claims of a mass investor exodus driving rents up dramatically are relatively common in some quarters, despite being debunked by hard data and
Wednesday’s labour price index from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that wages nationally increased by 0.8% in March to be 3.3% higher year-on-year: Wage growth was higher in the public sector (3.30%) than the private sector (3.23%): As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the result was bang in line with
A migrant remittance is simply money that a migrant worker earns in one country and sends to people in their home country. Significant net migrant remittance outflows are an economic cost to the host country. They are a net leakage from national income, domestic demand, and the tax base. As a result, they weaken the
Here is the Budget outlook. Versus the RBA outlook. The differences are stark: Growth is 0.4% stronger in the Budget by mid 2027. Employment growth is 0.1% higher. Unemployment peaks at 4.5 in the Budget but keeps climbing for the RBA. CPI is 0.1% higher in Budget versus RBA mid-2027. Wage inflation is up to
The ABS is with March QTR wages, and it’s been going well. The seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.8% this quarter. Over the twelve months to the March quarter, the WPI rose 3.3%. The private sector rose 0.8% and the public sector rose 0.5%, seasonally adjusted over the quarter. In original terms, the
TME on the big reversal. Just In Time The AI melt-up came into today at historically stretched levels. Nasdaq was trading more than 15% above its 100 day moving average, risk appetite had surged to one of the highest readings in years, and retail call buying was approaching meme-era extremes. Everybody suddenly became terrified of
The Albanese government continues to import people into Australia at a rapid pace, with 40,400 net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals in March, the second-highest March total on record, after 2023 (44,580). In the year to March 2026, 486,300 NPLT arrivals landed in Australia, just below the all-time highs of 498,270 in February 2024 and
The AFR is living in the past. But political focus on an unequal, unfair tax burden conveniently deflects attention from the Albanese governmentâs quiet achiever status as a high taxing, high spending government. Tax as a percentage of GDP will go up next year to 23.8 per cent and stay there the following year. This
The latest data from Cotality shows that home prices across the major capital city markets continue to lose steam. As illustrated below, value growth has slowed across all five major capital city markets, with Sydney and Melbourne recording significant outright declines: Cotality’s weekly indicators report provided a strong clue to why value growth has stalled:
You know you’ve failed to address intergenerational inequality when the Vampire Squid condemns your policy changes. Goldman: The flagship policy of the Budget is tax reform in the housing sector â specifically, changes to reduce the favourable tax treatment of capital gains and to limit ânegative gearingâ. The changes are intended to reduce the attractiveness
The humiliation of the POTUS is at hand. Iran will not resume talks on nuclear issues until: Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon Lifting all sanctions Releasing frozen Iranian assets Compensation for war damages and losses Recognition of Iranâs sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz These conditions are an open invitation for
Earlier this month, it was reported that a 37-year-old woman in Wagga Wagga gave birth to twins in a makeshift homeless camp along the Murrumbidgee River. After going into labour, an ambulance was called, and she was assisted by her partner and another resident of the camp. One of the twins did not survive, with
Recent federal budgets have notoriously underestimated net overseas migration (NOM), as illustrated below: Tuesday night’s federal budget is no exception, significantly upgrading NOM forecasts from last year’s budget. As illustrated below, the NOM forecast has been upgraded by 35,000 (13%) for 2025-23 and by 20,000 (9%) in 2026-24: The budget stated that the NOM upgrade
Last week’s 25 bp hike in the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) â the third consecutive increase â may have been the ‘straw that broke the camel’s back’. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner from IFM Investors, NAB’s business survey showed that business confidence remains in deeply pessimistic territory, while
Below is a dot-point summary of Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ budget speech, which outlines the main budget measures. Mind the spin! We’ll have more analysis tomorrow. 1. Framing: âMost important and ambitious Budget in decadesâ Chalmers positions the Budget as a response to: the Middle East war and the largest oil shock in history global inflation,
In April, stock markets boomed. The key question remains whether US profit growth (~20% forecast for each of the next two years) will stay incredible or if it will become non-credible in the face of rising energy costs. We switched our tactical portfolios back into stocks mid-month as soon as the ceasefire was announced. The Iran
Last week, the Albanese government abandoned the Inland Rail Project, which was supposed to build an inland rail freight line between Melbourne and Brisbane. This followed analysis by ACIL Allen on behalf of the government, which concluded that the project would now cost about $45 billion and not be completed before 2036. Construction between the
