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Website improvements

Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The

Latest posts

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Albo does not deserve a second term

The writing was on the wall for Albo in his first week. While Australian energy markets were melting down on Ukraine War profiteering by the gas cartel, Albo was busy talking up how he would aim for a two-term government. Any PM who is so focused on re-election as his top priority has no interest

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Will RBA turn the election tide for Labor?

The latestĀ YouGov poll suggests the Dutton-led Coalition will most likely win the upcoming federal election and form the next government. YouGov’s latest MRP model suggests the Coalition would likely win around 73 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, with a lower estimate of 65 and an upper estimate of 80, if a federal election

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Ten years late, foreign property buyers banned

Only ten years late. The Albanese government will launch a crackdown on housing purchases by foreign buyers, implementing a two-year ban on the purchase of established homes by temporary residents to replicate a previous commitment by the Coalition. …Simultaneously, the Albanese government will also conduct a review into the banā€™s effectiveness to determine whether it

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Imported demand squeezes rental market

Last week, SQM Research released its January vacancy report, revealing that the national vacancy rate declined to just 1.0%, down 0.1% from January 2024. Commenting on the results, SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher noted that the rental crisis appears to have reignited, potentially driven by a resurgence of net overseas migration. “The sharp decrease

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Private ghost colleges ruthlessly exploit visa system

According to the Department of Education, a record 1,018,799 international students were enrolled in Australia in the year to September 2024: The table below displays the breakdown of enrolments by type of institution. As you can see, vocational education and training (VET) has experienced the greatest increase in student numbers since 2019, rising from 247,467

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Xi decrees crashing China credit fixed!

You’ve just got to love China. Nothing that matters stays broken for long. January credit data is out, coming in strong at RMB 7060bn in January, vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 6500bn. Amusingly, the money supply data that has been telling the truth about how bad the Chinese economy is has been fixed! M1 to the

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Where is the federal government’s immigration target?

Last week, ABC’s 7.30 report aired a special on Australia’s housing crisis, which was put together by Alan Kohler. The segment blamed Australia’s housing crisis on a lack of housing supply and tax concessions like negative gearing. The segment also featured renowned pro-mass immigration shills and YIMBYs, the Centre for Independent Studies’ Peter Tulip and

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Macro Morning

While Wall Street nominally almost made a record close on Friday night it was a very weak finish that reflected a missed retail sales print that showed spending has slowed in the first month of the year. Other risk markets also pulled back and combined with a flurry of central bank meetings this week, trading

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The bull market rolls on

The Market Ear leads us off. Too much bearishness The AAII bull-bear spread has puked aggressively. Prior instances when the spread collapsed like this led to the SPX squeezing higher. Refinitiv The chase for Europe Largest inflow to Europe in over 2 years. Suckers getting sucked in… BofA They are not early After 8 straight

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RBA needs to cut, cut, cut

The rotten fish head is back, trying to poison the interest rate pond with politicised garbage. John Kehoe is the stinker today. The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia board on Tuesday is the most eagerly awaited monetary policy call in many years ā€“ both for home borrowers and politicians on the eve of

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A Coalition government would rocket house prices

Last week, Labor Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced that Australia’s financial regulators would be required to loosen home lending rules for millions of Australians with student loans. Under the changes, a borrower’s education debt will be removed from mortgage serviceability assessments if the bank believes the borrower will pay it off in the “near term”. Compare

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Auction market bounces ahead of rate cuts

Financial markets and most economists believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower the official cash rate by 0.25% on Tuesday, followed by three additional cuts this year. The latest Westpac monthly consumer confidence surveyĀ noted that “consumers have become much more confident about the prospect of interest rate cuts”. As a result, “house

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Australian dollar cheers European peace

DXY is breaking down as EUR rises on a peace premium. Premature is what FX does best! AUD to the moon! The AUD short has been squeezed a little. Not enough. Auld lead boots helping out. Gold is shellacked. This is a positioning unwind but also a fear of an outbreak of peace. Imagine if

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Weekend reading and media appearances

International Reads: Trump’s Tariffs Could Add $20K To The Cost Of Building A New Home – IB Times US inflation report points to impending recession – UnHeard Trump claims Musk has already found ā€˜tens of billionsā€™ in savings. Even DOGEā€™s social media accounts disagree – Independent US eggs prices hit a record high of $4.95

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Macro Afternoon

Asian share markets are fairly positive across the region although Japanese shares are suffering from a reversal in Yen strength and reports about more tariff diarrhea from the Felon in Chief while currency markets are still in flux but effectively rebuffing the continued trade war. The Australian dollar is now back to its mid January

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January 2025 MB Fund performance

Another big month for markets. Our international portfolio in particular performed much better than benchmark, up almost 5% for the month, while our growth portfolio was not far behind.     Trump: Crash or crash through? Trump has begun an unprecedented attack on the norms of US lawmaking. The scale and scope of the attack

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Reserve Bank to cut 0.5% next week

Major bank ABS believes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut the official cash rate by 0.5% at next week’s monetary policy meeting. This would lower the official cash rate to 3.75%, down from last year’s peak of 5.5%. ASB expects two further 0.25% cuts in April and May and a 3.25% endpoint.

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Greens tax reforms not bad

Gotti is having a baby, which tells you this is a good thing. The Greens will require big banks to offer all residential home borrowers a ā€œhomekeeperā€ loan facility which carries an interest rate of 1 per cent above the Reserve Bankā€™s cash rate. Investment and holiday home borrowers will not be entitled to the

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Australia’s rental crisis worsens again

Australia’s rental crisis appeared to be easing after CoreLogic and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a marked easing in rental growth. However, the latest rental vacancy data from SQM Research suggests that the rental crisis has resumed. Following a period of rental easing during the second half of 2024, the national vacancy rate

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Australian businesses feast on taxpayer-funded training rorts

The former Coalition government’s Boosting Apprenticeship Commencements (BAC) program ran from October 2020 to June 2022 and was designed to turbocharge trainee and apprenticeship numbers coming out of the pandemic. The scheme allowed retail and hospitality businesses to claim up to $28,000 for first-year trainees and up to $6000 for a second year. Like most

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Cat 5 monster heads for iron ore town

Thar she blows. Cyclone Zelia, a Cat5 monster, with wind speed approaching 320km/h building off the warmest seasonal waters since records began. There’s going to be some disruption. That said, it appears to be largely priced already, with iron ore completely dislocated from steel. Short is still the better part of long here, barring a