Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Australia’s productivity growth has averaged just 0.2% a year over the last decade. Labor’s first budget in 2022 included the assumption that productivity growth would average 1.2% over the long-term. The Coalition contends that annual GDP would be about $250 billion higher if productivity had grown at this pace, while annual tax revenue would have
Some interesting local and Chinese reports were absorbed by markets in Asia today, with all eyes really on Friday’s US non farm payroll print and of course, any more waffles coming from the Oval Office about “deals” around Trump’s tariffs. The latest Chinese manufacturing PMI prints weren’t grim as expected but still so a sharp
Elderly parent visas are Australia’s most costly and should be abolished. Around 8,500 permanent parent visas are issued every year. The 2023 Migration Review from the Australian Treasury estimated that each parent visa costs Australian taxpayers $393,000: The Treasury has estimated that each parent permanent migrant costs $393,000 over their remaining lifetime in Australia. Older
The Albanese government announced on the weekend that it will increase the application charge on student visas from $1,600 to $2,000 if Labor is re-elected. The change will not affect arrangements for Pacific Island and Timor-Leste applicants. The visa fee increase is forecast to deliver $760 million to the budget over the forward estimates. “We
The latest polling from Resolve Political Monitor shows Labor leading the Coalition 53% to 47% in two-party terms. Anthony Albanese also leads Peter Dutton by 47% to 31% as preferred Prime Minister. However, Resolve notes that Labor’s primary vote “remains weaker than it was at the last election, down from 32.6% to 3%, highlighting the
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the all-important Q1 2025 CPI inflation print. Headline inflation rose by 0.9% over the quarter and by 2.4% year over year. The result was slightly ahead of analysts’ expectations of a 2.4% annual increase. The more policy-important trimmed mean inflation printed at 0.7% in Q1 2025, in
The ferrous complex is not well. As the trade shock begins. Morgan Stanley. Our Asia Economists see China’s 2Q GDP growth tracking below 4.5% Y/Y (vs. 5.4% Y/Y in1Q) as more hard data points are showing that tariffs are affecting activity: container throughput is declining, freight shipping prices to the US are slumping, and China’s
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Victorians pay the highest state and local taxes in the nation. Victorians suffered a 40.5% increase in state and local government taxes since 2020-21, the largest increase in the nation. Victoria’s state taxes as a share of gross state product have also increased to 6.08%, the highest
The Market Ear on diving US leading indicators. Post crisis lows VIX at the lowest levels since the early April panic. Note the aggressive VVIX implosion, as well as the latest little bid in VVIX. Volatility is not dirt cheap, but early long volatility positions/hedges are starting to screen attractive again. Our full volatility
The composition of Australia’s international student enrolments has changed drastically over the past 20 years. In December 2005, 288,579 overseas students were studying in Australia. China (63,695) dominated enrolments, with India (24,644) in a distant second position. The Department of Education didn’t even list Nepal. Nine years later, in December 2014, 452,965 overseas students enrolled in
DXY struggles on. AUD is holding support. Lead boots plod on. Oil is pointing the way for growth. Metals meh. Mining meh. EM meh. Junk has entered autobid as equities rise. And yields fall. VIX down means stocks up with robots. Deutsche says DXY is stuffed. DB tracks two near real-time measures of US capital
A better night on Wall Street due to better earnings reports and by absorbing the Canadian general election outcome. The USD was able to push back slightly against most of the majors although Pound Sterling remains at a new three year high amid the growing UK/EU detente on trade. The Canadian Loonie firmed slightly on
CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index, which tracks value growth across the five major capital cities, recorded stalling momentum in April. Across the five major capitals, values rose by only 0.2% over the month, down from 0.4% growth in March. As illustrated below, the slowing in growth was broad-based, led by Sydney, Melbourne, and Adelaide, whereas
CoreLogic has released the following snapshot of housing affordability across Australia, broken down by four metrics. As illustrated above, affordability to purchase or rent nationally was tracking at its worst level in history at the end of 2024. Specifically: The national dwelling value-to-income ratio was an equal record high of 8.0 as of 31 December
Risk markets are trying to digest quite a bit of macro news today with the Canadian election resulting in a Liberal victory, while a small reprieve in auto tariffs by the Trump regime looks possible amid the UK/EU announcing what could be a reversal in post Brexit trade barriers. The USD is back on the
CBC. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is predicted to have won Canada’s federal election, according to local media. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), the national public broadcaster, said the Liberals will win more of parliament’s 343 seats than the Conservatives. A record number of Canadians voted in this election, which also became a referendum
Before it turned full-blown woke, The Australia Insititute (TAI) used to talk sense on immigration. In 2015, TAI published an excellent research paper calling for a national debate on Australia’s future population: Since the Sydney Olympics in the year 2000 the population of Australia has grown by 25 per cent. In fact, since the Sydney
Liberal leader Peter Dutton was questioned about his plans to cut the permanent migrant intake from 185,000 in 2024-25 to 140,000 in 2025-26. Dutton suggested that cuts to migrant worker numbers could be partly offset by permitting pensioners to work more hours without reducing their pension. “That will replace some of the international labour that
The ferrous complex is still struggling. Reports from the ground in China are dour. Goldman. Over the past week, we met with onshore clients in Beijing and Shanghai, including mutual funds, private equity firms, and asset managers from banks, brokers and insurance companies. Compared to two months ago(late February), local investors are more concerned about
Australia’s residential property market vacancy rates are still near a record low of only 1%. The Australian Greens announced that abolishing negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount would be a priority in a minority government. The Greens’ policy is as follows. Grandfather negative gearing and the 50% CGT discount to one investment
China is easily the world’s largest carbon emitter, comprising 31.5% of global emissions in 2023, according to Our World In Data. China’s insatiable coal consumption has largely driven its near exponential rise in emissions. China is the world’s largest coal producer, importer, and user, accounting for around 30% more coal consumption than the rest of
DXY is hanging on…just. AUD looks poised for higher. Lead boots are holding. Gold and oil take a breather. Metals stall. Big miners=big bear. EM yawn. Junk unconvincing, either way. Treasuries are bid again. Stocks stalled. There is a lot of tariff pain imminent, both in the US and China. I am still of the
All opinion polls are pointing to an easy Labor victory at this weekend’s federal election. Sadly, a Labor victory will jettison the single best policy proposal of the campaign: the reservation of East Coast gas for domestic use. The Coalition’s policy promised to quarantine uncontracted gas sold on the spot market for domestic consumption. The
The Market Ear on abandoned stocks. Climbing the wall of worry S&P 500 up 14% since April’s 7th intraday low – now trading back above 20x PE. Mag-7’s best week in 3 years (+9.4%) . US HF net leverage has bumped a lot from absolute lows (now sits at 49% vs a recent low <40%),
An uneasy night on Wall Street with minor moves as more earnings reports filter through amid more bluster from the Trump regime about nonexistent Chines tariff negotiations helping push USD lower against most of the majors as Pound Sterling hits a new three year high amid a UK/EU detente on trade. The Canadian Loonie remains
