Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Just when you thought the nation’s auction market couldn’t get worse, this week’s final auction results hit a fresh low of 42.3%, the lowest result since April 2020 (41.1%) during the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. “The downward trend in clearance rates has been apparent since mid-February, but a sub-50% reading indicates a wide gap
Today’s May labour force release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) rebounded, with the unemployment rate falling by 0.1% to 4.4%, although it remained above the RBA’s latest forecast. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, employment increased by 40,300 in May, driven by a 35,180 rise in part-time jobs.
This is hardly worth deconstructing. Australia’s largest international LNG customer has warned that Labor’s gas reservation scheme will cut domestic gas supplies to Australia while risking an opportunity to grow the multibillion-dollar trade with Japan as the global energy crisis pushes the Asian country to lift imports. …Australia supplies about 40 per cent of Japan’s
On Tuesday, both the NSW and Queensland state governments delivered their budgets. The NSW government now expects to post a budget deficit of $2.3 billion in the 2026-27 financial year, compared with a previous forecast of $1.1 billion. However, the budget papers show that the Treasury anticipates a surplus of $1.1 billion in 2027-28, rising
The Teals are coming to the centre’s rescue. The only problem is that the centre is vacant. The new party started by teal MPs Zali Steggall and Allegra Spender will be called Community Strong Australia. The paperwork to register Community Strong Australia with the Australian Electoral Commission was reportedly filed on Wednesday. The party’s constitution
Australia’s electricity grid must be built to handle the worst moments, not averages. This week, Australia’s National Energy Market (NEM) has experienced a prolonged wind drought, which, alongside low solar generation due to winter, has made the grid overly reliant on coal and gas. As I began writing this article at 9.50 am on Wednesday,
DXY continues its march. AUD is approaching free-fall as North Asia rolls. Debasement and Trump wars are apparently the same trade. AI metals meltdown. Big miners have formed the OMG pattern. EM is still holding on. Probably because this is not a credit event. Not public, anyway. Private may be another matter. Yields are tumbling
The Strait of Hormuz is theoretically open as of today, June 25, 2026, but it is not functioning regularly. In short, I was half wrong. Ships are passing across the strait, but they are subject to military supervision and strict regulations. Traffic is still well below average, with about 25 ships per day as opposed
In October 2024, the Canadian government announced that it would be acting to further slash migration levels into their corner of the cold north. Under the plans put forward by the Trudeau government, net overseas migration would be dramatically curtailed from 784,216 in 2024 to -50,901 in 2025 and -65,622 in 2026. At the time
Wednesday’s CPI inflation release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has increased pressure on the RBA to lift rates. The policy-relevant trimmed mean inflation increased to 3.6% year-on-year in May and is now tracking above the RBA’s forecast: This result, in isolation, suggests that further rate hikes would be firmly on the RBA’s agenda.
There is growing concern that Australia’s tax and transfer system disproportionately benefits older, wealthier retirees while placing a rising burden on younger workers. Analysis from the Actuaries Institute shows that two Australians earning the same gross income can end up with vastly different net incomes purely because of their age. That is, a 30‑year‑old earning $100,000
Today’s CPI inflation release for May from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) delivered a material downside surprise to headline inflation, largely due to lower fuel costs. However, there was an upside surprise in trimmed-mean inflation, which accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, up from 3.4% in April. The following chart from Alex Joiner, chief economist at
Getting ready for a serious snap back? TME. The Rubber Bands Are Stretching Several of the market’s biggest themes are starting to collide. Korea’s AI mania is wobbling, systematic selling risks are growing and the dollar breakout continues gaining momentum. Nothing is broken yet, but the number of things that need to go right is
Recent Australian state budgets have explicitly forecast a decline in stamp duty receipts for the same underlying reasons: higher interest rates, weaker housing turnover, and investor retreat following federal tax changes. Across the East Coast, state treasuries are warning that stamp duty – one of the most volatile revenue sources – is dropping sharply because:
Another energy fight is underway as the ACCC has been asked by Energy Minister Chris Bowen to look into whether electricity retailers have violated misconduct laws by attempting to push through significant increases in daily supply charges that have caught many customers off guard. In recent weeks, retailers have sent out notices concerning rates that
The Climate Council contends that there are currently about 160 data centres operating in Australia, with another 90 proposed. Alex Hooper, the head of climate and energy economics at Oxford Economics Australia, says data centres are tipped to account for more than 10% of electricity consumption on Australia’s East Coast by the mid-2030s, which will
Slightly improved. S&P. Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index: 49.8 Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m % qr/qr (May: 48.7) Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index: 49.9 (May: 48.7) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 51.2 (May: 50.7) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 48.9 (May: 49.0) More. While output neared stabilisation during June, the picture
DXY has been threatening, and now it has broken wild and free. JPY is not helping. CNY is wobbling. AUD is caput. Oil has priced zero risk. Gold is in serious trouble – a washout. AI metals jumped off the cliff. Big miners have horrifying charts. A monster double pecked at by three black crows.
As part of the political horse-trading to pass legislation through the Senate, the Albanese government has agreed to a series of proposals from the Greens in exchange for support on the passage of its proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. Perhaps the two most notable are: Removing the ability for self-managed superannuation
Australia’s housing market is experiencing a sharp investor retreat, collapsing auction activity, and weakening apartment demand. While first‑home buyers are temporarily stepping in, economists warn their participation is not enough to sustain new housing supply, raising the risk of a multi‑year development slowdown. Investors have pulled back dramatically since the federal budget’s CGT and negative‑gearing
Tonight I will be appearing on DFA Live with Martin North from 8.00pm AEST, where we will examine the latest on Australian property and the underlying political and economic drivers. Are major falls in value ahead? You can ask a question live. The YouTube feed is below. I hope to see you there.
About the only thing the Lowy Institute is good for (hear from it lately about Israel?) is this annual survey. Anarcho-Imperialism gets the big thumbs down. Led by, you guessed it, USofA. Now worse than China. Doing a band-up job, fellas. China back to the good ‘ol days. Not so much ANZUS. Thought the rump
Immigration influencer Abul Rizvi often rudely abuses people on Twitter (X), only to end up with egg on his face (for example, see here, here, here, and here). Earlier this month, I reported on Rizvi’s tirade against Tarric Brooker for daring to state the proven fact that Canada deliberately chose to cut immigration and population growth: “Only a total
Michael Hartnett at BofA. Zeitgeist: “Warsh is the best thing that’s happened to macro trading in a long time.” The Price is Right: victory…Iran done & US pivot back to boom & bubble to win US-China AI war; AI now 39% of SPX ~ ceiling of bubble concentration ex. railroads 1880s (Chart 3); bubbles =
A Sky News investigation on political donations found that the billionaire Fox family is a major donor to the Labor Party: Fox Group Holdings, linked to Lindsay Fox, provided a $500,000 donation and additional receipts, while Linfox Property Group also gave $10,000 to the party. The money was obviously well spent, with Linfox receiving nearly
