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Website improvements

Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The

Latest posts

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Weekend Reading and Media Appearances

International Reads: The salary you need to be considered middle class in every U.S. state—it’s close to $200,000 in 2 of them – CNBC Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns U.S. is ‘on the brink’ and estimates a more than one in three chance of civil war – Fortune Trump pledges to scrap offshore wind projects

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Macro Afternoon

A mixed reaction to the slip on Wall Street overnight across Asian stock markets with local stocks losing their risk on mood the most, while Chinese shares are sanguine after the latest fixed asset investment numbers were released. The USD is still coming back against the majors, particularly against Yen while the Australian dollar is

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Harry Triguboff cuts apartment construction, demands more migrants

Billionaire Meriton founder Harry Triguboff has warned that he will develop fewer apartments because selling them will be difficult due to high interest rates. “It is harder to sell apartments now than ever before”, Triguboff said. “The market for selling is definitely not rising…and it won’t rise much until we drop our interest rates”. “Of course,

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Canada leads Australia into mass unemployment

I have noted repeatedly how Canada represents an omen of what could happen to the Australian economy if we continue running an extreme immigration policy. Canada officially recorded its largest-ever increase in population in 2023, with 1.27 million residents added, 98% of whom came from net overseas migration: Like Australia, Canada’s extreme immigration has kept

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Australia’s inflation dragon has been slain

In the latest Treasury of Common Sense with Radio 2GB’s Clinton Maynard, I discussed the band-aid federal budget, why net overseas migration numbers will overshoot projections, and why Australia’s inflation dragon has been slain. Below are the highlights pertaining to the inflation discussion. Clinton Maynard: Do you think inflation has been beaten? Have we broken

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There is no manufacturing future without cheap energy

Sharri Markson from Sky News interviewed me on Wednesday night, where I explained why the Albanese government’s attempts to boost manufacturing would fail without plentiful and affordable energy. Edited Transcript: Australia is an energy superpower. We should have the cheapest energy in the world. But instead, through policy failure, we actually have some of the

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China’s property rescues going nowhere

Goldman continues its breakdown of Chinese property inventory rescue plans. Following our latest note What would it take to clear China’s housing inventory? where we expected housing “trade-in” programs to be a key policy initiative to help saleable inventory digestion and stabilize the property price outlook, we observe this program has expanded to more cities

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Westpac: Budget not inflationary

Westpac with the note. I agree given the dire leading indicators for unemployment. Both the government and RBA are walking a fine line, but some budget decisions might not be as inflationary as they seem at first glance. Households in Australia are collectively doing it tough. Their cash flows are being squeezed by the high

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Renters forgotten in Dutton’s Big Angry Australia

The RBA yesterday painted a dire outlook for Australian renters: Overall then, there is currently an imbalance between new supply of housing and growth in demand. Given the implications of this for rents, construction costs and activity, we are closely watching how these imbalances unwind. Our assessment is that there are several potential avenues through

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Pain trades tire

The Market Ear on what’s hot and what’s getting tired. The 10 year Trading right on the 200 day moving average… Refinitiv Next “thing” in AI A key debate in A.I. is predicting the next trend. Initially, A.I. excitement centered on Silicon/Semis, then expanded to manufacturing/power/infrastructure. Investors are now debating the “Edge” (with catalysts like

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Australian dollar still on the up

DXY firmed overnight: AUD paused: No help from North Asia: Gold is either going to double top or take off. Oil is cooked for now: Dirt stumbled: Big miners are range trading: EM is off and running: Supported by junk: Yields paused: And stocks: Charlie McElligott at Nomura sums it up nicely: MARKET REMAINS “BUYERS

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Iron ore falls continue

It was another day of choppy trading yesterday for iron, with prices finishing up: Dalian was up: Coking coal too: The latest CISA data is lukewarm at best, down 2.5% YTD, 40mt iron ore equivalent. Inventories are almost identical for steel, Yoy: It’s a strange picture. The steel output falls will continue, the inventory of

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Macro Morning

Wall Street failed to make another new record high overnight as the impact of the latest US inflation print was fully absorbed and the strong swing against USD was pared back a little. European stocks lost a little confidence as well which is likely to translate into a mixed finish for the trading week here

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Dutton promises to cut immigration, ban foreign home buyers

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton used his budget reply address to promise a reduction in net overseas migration and a prohibition on temporary visa holders purchasing established property. Dutton stated that if elected, he would reduce the number of permanent visas from 185,000 this financial year to 140,000 for two years, 150,000 in year three, and

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RBA forecasts enormous housing shortage

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter gave an address on Thursday in Hobart, in which she noted that the housing construction industry faces a “perfect storm”. Hunter also warned that Australians face a prolonged period of rising home prices and rents as population growth via net overseas migration exceeds dwelling construction. “The

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Macro Afternoon

A strong session across most Asian stock markets due to the record highs on Wall Street overnight in the wake of a softer than expected US CPI print. The USD is falling against the majors with the latest soft unemployment print locally helping the Australian dollar somewhat although it has lost some ground to fall

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New Chinese property save beset with problems

Sinocism with the note. Renewed hopes for a massive real estate bailout – Bloomberg reports that the government is “considering a proposal to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes”. Caixin reported over the weekend that it “has learned from multiple sources that policymakers have also been studying the creation of a national real estate investment

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Australia’s jobs market “cracking”

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released its Labour Force report for April, which recorded a 0.19% rise in the unemployment rate to 4.05% alongside a 0.15% rise in the underemployment rate to 6.61%: The result was far worse than economists’ expectations of a 3.9% unemployment print. The result came amid a solid 38,480

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Mega landlord Albo doubles rent for tenant

Ah yes, the truth is ugly when it presents itself bald-faced: Anthony Albanese has broken his silence on his decision to serve an eviction notice to a longstanding tenant, revealing the reason for kicking the man out is all about his “changing circumstances” and his wedding to partner Jodi Haydon. But he’s accused tenant Jim

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Treasurer Chalmers admits record immigration has lifted inflation

Last week, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor, Michele Bullock, tied herself in knots in an attempt to play down the impact of record immigration levels on CPI inflation. Bullock admitted that record immigration had driven up housing inflation, but that this was partly offset by immigration lowering wage growth. Therefore, immigration hasn’t “added dramatically