Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
New Zealand citizens can work and live in Australia indefinitely as temporary migrants under the Special Category Visa (SCV). Under changes made by the Albanese government, from 1 July 2023, New Zealand citizens no longer needed to secure permanent residence before becoming Australian citizens. As a result, other nationalities now fill those places, effectively increasing
Following Wednesday’s weaker-than-expected wage growth data, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its July labour force survey on Thursday, which reported rising unemployment. The nation’s unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.5% after 15,800 jobs were lost. However, full-time employment rose by 16,300, more than offset by a 32,200 decrease in part-time jobs. The number
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, explores what SpaceX is really becoming — from Grok and massive AI data centres to AI satellites and ambitious plans for space-based computing. With Musk targeting 10 gigawatts of AI compute by 2027, we ask whether SpaceX is quietly positioning itself to compete with
Bloomberg has a piece today that should alarm every Australian. The article argues that Donald Trump is accidentally reversing years of US foreign-policy efforts to shift military and strategic attention from the Middle East toward the Indo-Pacific and China. Recall it all began with President Obama’s “pivot to Asia” and continued through both Trump’s first
Victoria has legislated a target to source 95% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2035. This is one of the most ambitious renewable energy targets in Australia and globally, designed to accelerate the state’s transition away from cheap brown coal and toward cleaner energy sources, such as wind, solar, and storage. The target is
Goldman has released an alarming study on Australian complacency regarding our new and improved AI+immigration growth model. Australia is mid-range in the AI rollout among DMs. But Australia is a leader in AI job displacement. In fact, it’s probably fair to say that the higher your immigration, the worse it is for your labour market.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme. When Jeff Kennett became Victorian Premier in October 1992, Victoria’s net debt was more than 30% of gross state product (GSP) — one of the highest state debt burdens in Australian history — and it had lost its AAA credit rating and was facing rising borrowing
Regular readers will know that I basically believe that AI is only the latest iteration of a structurally deflationary environment, regularly disrupted by an inflationary pushback in the form of disintegrating globalisation. Currently, my base case is bearish for most assets due to the war in Iran and its associated energy shock, which I see
Today’s Iran war headlines. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament and chief negotiator, claims that the US is looking for a “honourable exit” from the Middle East and is promoting a “new regional order.” UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have discussed
Recently Victorian Opposition Leader Jess Wilson pledged that a Coalition state government would restore weekly rubbish collections if they win November’s state election. Overall, 33 Victorian councils have shifted general rubbish collections from weekly to fortnightly, with some councils in other states pursuing a similar course. Despite the fact one can’t imagine fortnightly rubbish collection
Australia’s housing market is facing a ‘perfect storm’ of forces that are converging to deliver the largest price correction in generations. First, following this year’s three rate hikes by the Reserve Bank, mortgage rates in Australia are tracking at their equal highest in more than a decade. As a result, a wide gap has opened
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the wage price index for the June quarter, which rose by 0.8% over the quarter to be 3.2% higher year-over-year: The result was in line with analysts’ expectations but 0.1% below what the Reserve Bank had forecast in its latest Statement of Monetary Policy. Over the year,
Albo is, once again, listening to the wrong people on gas. Federal Labor is increasingly likely to make changes to its centrepiece gas policy as it heeds widespread criticism that the scheme would crush investment by domestic producers, the chief executive of ASX-listed gas producer Amplitude Energy says. …Amplitude Energy chief executive Jane Norman told
Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye published the following chart on X (Twitter) showing how dwelling values are falling at an annual rate of 12.0% across the five major capitals, led by Sydney, which is falling at a rate of 16.7% annualised: Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, meanwhile, posted the following chart showing that the monthly rate
The Market Ear is sanguine. Messy The market isn’t breaking, but leadership is getting increasingly messy. Semis are losing momentum, the SOX/SPX divergence remains wide and skew is suddenly waking up despite relatively little movement in the index. Meanwhile, investors still say they want more AI exposure, just preferably after a correction. The setup is
Simon Kuestenmacher, dubbed the “Stats Guy”, is a well-known immigration shill. For years, he has spread propaganda to support a ‘Big Australia’. The Centre for Population’s latest projections have Australia’s population ballooning to 41 million by 2065-66 – an increase of more than 13 million that is roughly equivalent to adding another Sydney, Melbourne, and
When I first visited China in 2002, I was struck by one thing in particular: how wrong the Western view was that we were going to liberalise it. The scale of China had a ballast that made this impossible. The factories of the Yangtze River, the tearaway development model of Shanghai, and the sheer demographic
War headlines today. Majed al-Ansari, a spokesman for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, says there are no negotiations until Iran/Oman agreement. On social media, US President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz to be “New US Territory.” Iran’s Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, responded by calling Trump “delusional.” Iran’s FM Araghchi claims that the US
With the release of the latest U.S. labour force data, further confirmation has come that all is not well in the U.S. economy. The labour force participation rate has fallen dramatically since late last year, down 1.1 percentage points from 62.5% in November to 61.4% in the latest data, which covers through July. While the
Economists warn that the Albanese government’s removal of key investor tax concessions (negative gearing on existing homes and the 50% CGT discount) could force rents up 15–30% over the next two years, far above Treasury’s estimate of $2 a week, adding substantial pressure to inflation at a time when underlying inflation has already sat outside
Brisbane’s and Perth’s property corrections are in their infancy and are lagging well behind Sydney’s and Melbourne’s, according to Cotality. The outlook for both markets continues to sour, however, amid a surge in ‘for sale’ listings. As illustrated below by Cotality, Brisbane’s listings are tracking 44.1% higher than the same time last year, whereas Perth’s
This is sensible policy. Pauline Hanson has vowed to slash the price of cigarettes by 75 per cent in a move she claims will fight organised crime. In a shock policy, the One Nation leader will is calling for a radical rethink of cigarette taxes that would slash the current cost of a $46.50 pack
The Teal federal member for Wentworth (covering Sydney’s wealthy eastern suburbs), Allegra Spender, has consistently advocated mass migration while also contradictorily demanding lower carbon emissions (for example, see here and here). To her credit, Spender has at least been consistent in her views. A year ago, Spender gave qualified support to a new housing plan
The AEMO provides a neat quarterly assessment of the NEM renewables rollout, giving us a snapshot of where things are at. In short, the major reason the pipeline of renewables has slowed is that connections have not kept pace. This bottleneck is easing, but the pace of applications for new projects is accelerating much faster.
For decades, net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provided a strong, reliable leading indicator of the direction of net overseas migration (NOM). When the rate of NPLT arrivals rose or fell, it reliably suggested that NOM was moving in the same direction. The strong correlation between NPLT
