Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
As the battle surrounding the right level of migration into Australia continues to be waged from the halls of power in Canberra to the digital battlegrounds of cyberspace, the example of Canada is often cited as proof that dramatically lower migration can be pursued and does not need to result in significant economic downside, at
The Australian labour market is characterised by an exploitable class of temporary migrants, a situation that is generally thought to be undesirable. A 2016 Senate Education and Employment References Committee report documented systemic abuses in Australia’s visa system for foreign workers. In 2017, the Fair Work Ombudsman revealed that foreign workers were involved in more
A new Redbridge/Accent Research poll suggests the Victorian Coalition is increasingly well placed to win government at the November election, with support consolidating around Liberal leader Jess Wilson and Labor still struggling to recover from years of voter dissatisfaction. While a hung parliament remains possible, the pollsters believe a Coalition majority government is becoming more
The great gas schmozzle continues. The government has sought to balance domestic gas supply pressures with the interests of Australia’s multibillion-dollar gas industry and the nation’s major overseas trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and China, which are major consumers of locally produced LNG. Following consultations in Australia and overseas, the government has agreed
Brisbane is now in the midst of a deep house price correction. Brisbane home values have declined by 5.7%, with the 28-day run rate tracking at -1.2%: Brisbane’s auction clearance rate is also the weakest among the three largest capital cities, tracking below 40% for 19 consecutive weeks: Meanwhile, old listings keep piling up. As
TME with stocks today. The daily market pulse The cracks in the tech trade are getting harder to ignore. Deutsche Bank warns that tech’s relative risk/reward is becoming increasingly asymmetric, while the memory meltdown is spreading into Nasdaq positioning. Korea is flashing even more serious warning signs, with KOSPI breaking key technical levels and volatility
Australia’s eastern states are facing a massive rise in their debt burdens, as the following chart from Alex Joiner at IFM Investors illustrates: As a result, ratings agency Moody’s in July forecast that interest payments on state debt would climb by 2030, owing to rising debt loads alongside higher global bond yields: However, the outlook
Yesterday’s NAB business survey was pretty ugly. It shows all major components stalling, including employment, which turned outright negative for the first time since 2020. Confidence ouch. Demand crumble. Led by the mighty Hellbourne. Oddly, capacity utilisation is still above the long-term average. Not for long if the rest of the survey is right. Cost-push
War headlines today. Houthis continue bombardment of Saudi pansy. US, UK, and the Mecca Agreement all threaten the Houthis and do nothing. Another tanker hit in Hormuz. Ukraine says no to the energy deal. Everybody hates the Houthis, but nobody is willing to do anything about it. They have not blocked Bab al-Mandeb, so why
In the modern Australian vocabulary, the term “third world” has generally been used with a negative connotation to describe part of the developing world, despite the term’s origin as meaning a nation not allied with the capitalist or communist blocs during the Cold War. Whether you take the term by its original definition or the
Earlier this month, housing minister Clare O’Neil boasted that the government’s expanded 5% deposit scheme, introduced on 1 October 2025, had ‘helped’ more than 100,000 people into the housing market. In reality, the scheme lured 100,000 first home buyers into debt to buy near the top of the market. Buyers have since endured four interest
The federal budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) aimed to reduce investor demand for established housing, lowering prices without harming housing supply. Beginning July 1, 2027, investors can fully negative-gear only newly built homes. Effective July 1, 2027, the 50% CGT discount will be replaced by cost-based indexation (taxing only real
Won’t find a kind word from me about specufestors. But I am now wondering if we need hate speech laws to protect them against the Greens. Victorian landlords would need a license to rent out their homes under a new policy call from the state’s Greens party as an election looms. The party noted it
CBA’s economics team has produced an analysis of the AI data centre boom across Australia, based on the latest construction data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). In the June quarter of 2026 alone, the data centre project pipeline grew by 20.1%. This followed a 62.6% surge in the March quarter and places the
New South Wales can see the writing on the wall. NSW will use a scheme designed to subsidise the development of renewable energy generation to build new gas power plants as early as next year, a decision that puts the country’s largest state at odds with the Albanese government’s reluctance to underwrite new gas generation.
Financial markets have priced in a one-in-three chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will increase the cash rate again in November. This would increase the average mortgage interest rate to about 6.75%. Even if the RBA doesn’t hike in November, financial markets have fully priced in another hike later. Almost half of economists surveyed
TME with the note. The volatility paradox Index volatility is collapsing. Bond volatility is surging. Single-stock dispersion is approaching historic extremes. Yet beneath the surface, positioning is becoming increasingly complicated. Hedge funds remain remarkably underexposed, systematic investors have rebuilt exposure, and demand for upside options is accelerating even as index volatility remains near multi-year lows.
War headlines overnight. Houthis bomb Riyadh again. Air blockade developing. MBS hiding in a bunker. Iran rejects US concessions. The Iranian attack cadence keeps increasing. Windward say a better day as STS flows increase, which makes sense given VLCC ‘s are big fat burning targets. VLCC rates are mad. Shipping crude costs have risen up
In the ongoing debate over the right level of migration into Australia, there have been a great many narratives trotted out in an attempt to make a case that the status quo is perfectly fine. From the arguments based on migrants working in the healthcare and aged/disability sector, to the claimed disproportionate migrant tradies building
Coalition leader Angus Taylor defended the party’s proposed immigration cuts on ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, claiming they were necessary to raise productivity and living standards. Taylor argued Australia’s migration system should be focused on attracting workers with skills that increase productivity, rather than relying on population growth to drive economic activity. “We are reducing the
On 1 October, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese boasted on social media that banning card surcharges at stores would save Australians $1.6 billion a year: “Every time you tap, those little surcharges add up. Right now, they’re costing Aussies $1.6 billion each and every year”. “But from today, they’re banned”. Saving you money every time you
Newspoll has dispensed with two-party preferred polling since February this year, nominally owing to the rise of One Nation but probably because the Murdoch press finds it too painful to produce a weekly poll that describes Labour’s one-party state like a metronome. Today’s Newspoll is no different. More than one in two Australians want Anthony
Australia’s immigration system is overwhelmingly geared towards lower-skilled workers. Every skilled permanent visa class allows the primary applicant to include a spouse/partner and dependent children as secondary applicants. Even though they are counted in the skilled stream, secondary applicants do not need a skills assessment, meet occupation list requirements, a points test, or meet minimum
TME has the extremes. Extreme markets: The AI takeover The numbers are becoming extraordinary. AI now dominates US equity returns, earnings growth and investment spending. Meanwhile, most stocks are struggling, active managers face an increasingly difficult benchmark and the broader economy is becoming more dependent on a single investment cycle. But the story is getting
It has been a year since the Albanese government introduced its 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers, which lets them buy a home with only a 5% deposit, with taxpayers guaranteeing 15% of the purchase price and avoiding lenders’ mortgage insurance. Housing Minister Clare O’Neil posted a message on social media celebrating that Labor’s
