Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Defenders of mass migration often argue that Australia’s ‘skilled’ immigration system boosts the nation’s productivity because migrants are more skilled than locals and earn higher incomes. However, when you examine the macroeconomic data, you quickly discover that Australia’s labour productivity growth has collapsed alongside the strong rise in immigration, which contradicts their claims. ‘Big Australia’
TME smooths ruffled feathers.Ā Where is the FOMO? For markets sitting not far from the highs, the flow picture is surprisingly cautious. Risk demand is back to neutral, equity sentiment has turned negative, US fund inflows have collapsed, ETF flows are weak and hedge funds are running unusually low exposure. In other words, there isn’t
Australia needs a fresh start for its immigration programs. Back when Australia recruited immigrants mainly from developed countries, the emphasis was on attracting the best people to come live in Australia. A few lemons might slip through, but that was a price worth paying. Australia was the supplicant in the immigration market. Now that Australia
The US CPI was higher than expected on Friday night. It exhibited four problems. First, and most obviously, headline CPI was juiced by oil and products. Second, the effect already appears to be trickling down into core goods, which include food and El NiƱo ahead. Third, core services bounced, perhaps in response to the same
Last week, we witnessed an all-out attack on democracy from the federal government and the bureaucracy. We learned that the secretaries’ board, which comprises all federal department heads, is pushing for new rules to stop the sharing of public testimony on social media because it could expose officials to ridicule, hostility, or abuse. The board’s
The iron crash is here as the bizarre rally in steel prices falters. It’s a wonder it has taken this long as steel production collapses. Steel inventories are still high. As steel demand is also sinking, along with exports. Prices tumbled last week It is much worse when you factor in shipping costs. FOB prices
War headlines from over the weekend. Saudi shuts Yanbu after Iraqi-based drone attack. 6 weeks for repair? Multiple ships on both sides bombed in Hormuz. US limits air defence of Hormuz ships as night is no longer “safe”. Houthis shut Bab al-Mandeb to Saudi ships. Trump demands Ukraine stop bombing Russian diesel refineries. Iran/Gulf states
As the debate over the right level of net overseas migration into Australia continues in the halls of power in Canberra, a modicum of the reality of migration enforcement has come to the forefront in the media. The story of Charlotte Camer, who came to Australia as a 1-year-old with her mother on a tourist
According to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, home values across the five major capital city markets have declined by 5.2% from their 10 April 2026 peak. The biggest decline in 40 years of records, according to Cotality, was 8.6%, recorded between October 2017 and May 2019. At the current pace of decline, which is 4.0%,
The ABC The ABC, as critics like to point out, comes to us through an entirely different mindset. The reason for this is a simple matter of economics. Media organisations other than the ABC need to sell something, and from there they get people buying what they put into print or on air, or want
Australia’s auction market has seen no spring bounce, with last weekend’s final clearance rate remaining below 50% at the combined capital city level, while volumes tracked nearly one-third behind last year’s. The national final auction clearance rate came in at 49.3% for the week ending 6 September, marking the 14th week in the past 15
By Deep T, editing Gunnamatta A critical examination of a $4.4 trillion compulsory savings experiment Australia has a superannuation system which is often held up as a global model.Ā In one key way it certainly is ā it is a compulsory savings scheme that has amassed $4.4 trillion in assets at market value as
International Reading: Trump, Who Calls Medicare for All Too Expensive, Vows $5,000 to Every US AdultāIf GOP Wins Midterms – Common Dreams Global oil hits $107 per barrel and bond yields surge – CNN Vance appears to walk back Trumpās offer of $5,000 ādividendā if Republicans win midterms – The Guardian Trump to Make $500
Wow, man, we are pwned. Santos-backed Gladstone LNG has secured a reprieve from the Albanese governmentās domestic gas reservation scheme, shielding the Queensland project from the full force of the new rules while honouring existing export contracts. The concession is a victory of sorts for Santos and its international partners, which faced the prospect of
If you want proof that Australia has become a taxing and spending economy, look no further than the latest taxation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), compiled by The Australian Newspaper. The combined tax revenue of the nationās federal, state and local governments has risen to $893 billion a year, up 61% since
The great Simandou cost-curve shakeout has begun, and it is colliding with the Iran War shock, so it will likely get much worse before it improves. The latest C5 shipping cost for Pilbara Capesize is still $18-19. This puts FOB iron ore spot prices at around $87-88, the lowest in four years. But this time
New Zealand’s housing price correction began in November 2021, and since then, prices have declined by more than 15% nationally in nominal terms and by around 30% in real, inflation-adjusted terms. As a result, real New Zealand housing prices are tracking at the same level as March 2018: There are good reasons to believe that
Don’t hold gold during VaR shocks. Tattoo it on your forehead. Gold does poorly during VaR shocks that squeeze liquidity out of the market. This is especially true when the shock is triggered by rising interest rates, a double-barreled shotgun blast to the gold bull case. I am a secular gold bull for the same
Earlier this week, IĀ reported that the latest NAB Business Survey showed conditions were at their lowest level since the pandemic, as profitability collapsed. “The result suggests a growing share of firms are reporting margin squeeze, likely reflecting the combined impact of elevated costs and higher interest rates”, noted Westpac. On Thursday, Roy Morgan released its
Don’t say I didn’t warn you! A little safe-haven action with the oil price surge lifted DXY. AUD was smashed. The twins of doom are roaring in opposite directions. Dr Copper should be reported to AHPRA, though it wouldn’t do anything. Call this wake in fright. Big miners gapped into madness. EM ETFs held up,
War headlines today. Houthis capture the entire Bab al-Mandeb coastline and bomb the Yanbu pipeline in six places. Mwhaha. Nuke alert: Pickaxe Mountain propaganda spreads. Saudis report lowest monthly oil output since 1990. UKMT reports four unknown projectiles hit two tankers in the strait overnight. How reassuring. It was a relatively quiet day on the
As the debate over Australian housing price falls and the correct approach to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on existing homes continues, we have new hard evidence from New Zealand on the impact of housing crashes on demand from various different buyer cohorts. Of all the major cities in New Zealand, Wellington
The latest inflation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that property rental growth was tracking at 3.6% in the year to July, down from a peak of 7.8%: However, Cotality’s advertised rents series has risen strongly over the past year, tracking at 5.7% in the year to August across the combined capital
Australiaās construction and property leaders warn that the country cannot meet its housing and infrastructure targets without more skilled migrant workers. McNab Group founder Michael McNab says political debate on migration has become sensationalised and disconnected from economic reality. Productivity has fallen so far that Australia now needs more workers to build the same volume
In this weekās podcast, Nucleus Wealthās Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, is joined by Leith van Onselen of MacroBusiness to examine why Australiaās housing downturn could have much further to run. With prices now falling across much of the country and forecasts pointing to a potential double-digit correction, we unpack whatās driving the decline, how
