Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
As falling housing prices continue to spread to a growing share of the nation’s housing markets, downward revisions to price performance in various locales increasingly feel like par for the course. When Cotality released the latest revised housing price data at the start of the month, it revealed that housing price falls at a five-capital-city
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) has hit out at the Coalition’s ‘smoke and mirrors’ immigration cuts, centrered around lower graduate and bridging visas, claiming that they risk lowering economic growth and damaging productivity: “The Federal Government is cutting critical workforces, One Nation’s proposed cuts risk a deep recession, and today’s Coalition commitment
I explained on Monday why Australia’s inflation problem is primarily domestically driven, in response to Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ claim that the war in the Middle East, not excessive government spending, was driving inflation. Government spending is tracking at record pandemic levels (28% of GDP), even though the pandemic ended five years ago. Federal government spending
Goldman asks the question in less obnoxious terms. China’s export rise is historically exceptional. From 2000 to 2025, China’s share ofn global nominal goods exports increased from 4% to 15%, surpassing the peaks of Germany in the 1970s and Japan in the 1980s. With import volumes unlikely to rise significantly given the pursuit of “self-reliance”,
One Nation released an analysis showing that its promised 766,000 cuts to temporary migrant numbers back to 2017 levels would lower rents by $54 a week, or $2,818 a year. One Nation calculates that rents would fall by 2.3% in real terms. The party’s estimate was based on a national median dwelling rent of $705
No one company has whizzed on Australia for longer and with a greater gush than Santos. How this company does it is beyond my understanding. It’s not like it’s some too-big-to-fail entity. A vile South Australian export that has ravaged the East Coast for two decades while its share price has halved. I mean, what
Most fanfare and concern have focused on the sharp decline in Australian dwelling values, which have fallen 6.8% from their April peak across the five major capital city markets. At the current rate of decline, home prices will have recorded their steepest decline in more than 40 years before Christmas, with HSBC forecasting a 13%
DXY is breaking out after the pause that refreshes. North Asian headwinds are not helping the AUD bottom. Gold is in trouble. Metals says all good. But not miners. Iron ore is falling for real now. $84.70 on my freight-normalised CFR model. Junk is not OK. Though the long-end bust has paused. US stocks to
War headlines today. Iran says Hormuz flows have been choked off in the last few days. Trump says Iran “wiped out”. Houthis strangle Taiz. Brent is hovering just above $100 a barrel. Dated just under $130 and looking a little ominous. Diesel has rebounded for a few days after its recent good news about inventory
A little over a year ago, One Nation was polling in the same range that it had been for years, in the low to mid single digits at a federal level, only marginally removed from the 6.4% of the vote they achieved at the last federal election. At the time, there was only a small
We now have the immigration policies (“cuts”) from Labor, the Coalition, and One Nation, which all miss one vital ingredient to ensure that cuts to net overseas migration (NOM) are enduring. Below is a quick summary of each party’s policies, followed by an explanation of the common problem. Labor: Labor has announced the weakest immigration
The federal government and renewable energy advocates continually argue that renewables are the cheapest energy source. The latest Intergenerational Report, released last month, even claimed that the average Australian household will save 40% on energy costs between 2030 and 2050 because of the renewable energy revolution. Yet, when you scratch beneath the surface of this
Anyone would think that the Albanese government was actually planning a gas reservation policy. As we know, the idiots have already gutted it by making all its supply provisions depend on ministerial decisions rather than statutory enforcement. This change makes it functionally exactly the same as the existing Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM), which
I explained on Monday why Australia’s inflation problem is primarily domestically driven, in response to Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ claims that the war in the Middle East, not excessive government spending, was driving inflation. Former RBA governor Phil Lowe and other economists last week debunked Chalmers’ claims, insisting that excessive federal government spending is driving up
You can’t tell from the headline index but iron nore is now falling at good clip/ The key is to adjust for abnormal shipping rates. We are now sitting at about $85. My latest Simandou model has a flow rate of 90mt per month by year-end 2027. This trend extrapolates the 2026 cadence, which is
Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) must win the award for Australia’s worst-ever transport infrastructure project. Former Premier Daniel Andrews announced the project on the eve of the 2018 state election, proposing a $50 billion cost. The SRL was a “captain’s call” by Andrews and was never disclosed to Victoria’s transport department before its announcement because
DXY and EUR, overbought and oversold, have finally reversed. AUD is following. Oil and gold are stalled. Metals are fine. Miners too. EM stocks look more bullish. The junk crash has paused. Even the long-end rout has paused. NDX is flying. SPX ATH. Europe is making room for the AI rollout. So, the reversal of
War headlines today: Three Hormuz attacks in last 48 hours. Houthis bomb Saudi airports, refineries. Mecca agreement activated, largely for defensive forces. Dated Brent is still backed up. Hormuz crossings appear to be OK. However, we are building in higher distribution costs. US and Singapore gasoil prices stopped falling. US fuel inventories aren’t pretty. There
On Tuesday, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor unveiled the Coalition’s plan to slash the rate of net overseas migration to 100,000 for its first two years in government, before it was later allowed to rise to 160,000 per year. Taking these figures purely at face value, it is a far more sustainable intake than the one
The Coalition has announced its long-awaited migration policy, which you can read in full via this link. The key points are that the Coalition has promised to cut net overseas migration (NOM) to 100,000 over the first two years of the next parliamentary term, after which NOM will increase to 130,000 in year three and
Last week’s 25 bp interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank has dealt a hammer blow to consumer sentiment. Westpac’s monthly consumer sentiment survey fell 4.7% to 80.4, with responses during the survey week showing a “very sharp pull-back after the RBA rate hike”. “The sentiment read across the 40% surveyed after the RBA decision
Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has dashed hopes of any new cost-of-living relief, warning that his Government is about to be hit with billions of dollars in extra costs to service its debt. “You will see in the mid-year budget update a magnitude of some billions of dollars, unfortunately”, Chalmers told the media on Sunday. “There
Anthropic is concerned. Frontier AI giant Anthropic has declared that artificial intelligence poses an “industrial-scale threat’’ to Australia and could reduce “demand for human work’’. As a parliamentary inquiry probes OpenAI’s government data hacks and the AI industry’s creative “cannibalisation”, Anthropic has called for taxpayer support to retain, retain or redeploy workers whose jobs are
The Australian Greens elected a new leader, Senator David Shoebridge, last week after former leader Larissa Waters announced she was stepping away from the role because of chronic kidney disease. Shoebridge defeated former deputy leader Mehreen Faruqi — who quit her role to run for top spot — and the party’s Senate business manager Sarah
DXY is refusing to push higer on the tumbling EUR. AUD has found a bottom for now. Gold is irked by yields. Given Yanbu shut today, oil is notably weak. Metals bounced. Miners too. EM stocks suddenly look OK. Junk is horrible, but it’s trying. The long-end pushed higher despite lower energy. It’s still not
