Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
This week’s must-watch videos: For anybody with a keen interest in the energy / climate change debate, this is a must-watch: Former Treasury official David Pearl drops truth-bombs on Australia’s collapsing institutions led by captured and politicised public servants, including at the Treasury: International Reading: New Study Finds That A Minimum-Wage Worker In 1971
It’s the finest of businesses with glittering ethics. Australiaās largest oil and gas producer, Woodside Energy, has emerged as one of the nationās biggest corporate beneficiaries of the Iran war, reporting nearly a 30 per cent revenue jump to $6 billion over the past three months. As the conflict in the Middle East pushes the
The latest dwelling completions data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that only 173,400 homes were built in the year to March 2026, 66,600 (28%) fewer than the 240,000 annual run rate required to meet the National Housing Accord’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years. Over the first 21 months
DXY crashed last night as Arthur Warsh gave the US a little external crisis. While the currency was mashed, the long bond marched higher and is threatening a breakout. This nasty little combination last struck after Liberation Day tariffs. Things are a lot worse today for US prestige and investment credibility. If Arthur Warsh is
The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) has released temporary visa data for the June quarter of 2026, presented below as a rolling four-quarter moving average to remove seasonality. The next chart presents the data on an annual basis, with the 2.5 million temporary visas on issue being the highest on record for June: Temporary visas
TME with more on the bubble and bust of AI.Ā The washout is largely complete Technology remains under pressure, but the market structure has changed materially. Technicals are deeply oversold, while positioning across hedge funds, CTAs, leveraged ETFs and retail has reset aggressively. With much of the forced selling now behind us, the bar for
Former senior Australian Treasury official David Pearl gave a fantastic interview on the John Anderson podcast where, among other things, he highlighted the decline in the Treasury, which he claims has become overly ideological and politicised. “Treasury very sadly is now run by people who are not just politicised, because Treasury has never been independent
Sometimes you time it with precision. Yesterday I asked if Simandou is bringing the pain to iron ore sooner than expected, and here we are today with the bottom falling out of iron ore. Rebar is at 15-month lows. Hot rolled is getting there. Iron ore is still bloated. Mill margins are being crushed. Yet,
Markets are up as the wars in Ukraine and Iran are merging. On one side, Europe and the US are using Ukraine to attack Russia, while China is allied with the latter. On the other side, we have Russia using Iran as the tip of the spear into the US and Europe, while China allies
On an often rainy and gloomy island in the North Atlantic that once held an empire on which the sun never set, there was once a truly astounding amount of home building. During the 1968 calendar year, the United Kingdom built 425,800 new homes. Of those, 190,700 were built by local authorities, 9,100 were constructed
Cotality’s daily dwelling values index shows that values at the 5-city aggregate level declined by 0.9% in July, with losses recorded across all major capital cities except for Perth. Sydney (-1.4%) and Melbourne (-1.2%) once again led the declines. Over the July quarter, dwelling values at the 5-city aggregate level declined by 2.0%, again led
Maiy Azize, Deputy Director of Anglicare Australia, has posted a strawman article at The Point (The Australia Institute’s new propaganda outlet), arguing that it is “wrong” to blame migrants for the nation’s housing crisis. Let’s examine Azize’s key arguments. First, Azize claims that the recent decline in home values should “prompt journalists to ask whether
July has seen Sydney’s house price downturn steepen, with Cotality reporting a 0.5% decline in values over the past seven days. The rolling 28-day change in Sydney has worsened, with values falling 1.4% ā the steepest rate of decline in this cycle. Meanwhile, Sydney’s peak-to-trough value decline is now 5.1%, according to Cotality, and at
If you read RIO’s palava, you wouldn’t think so. Q2 sales: 1.6 Mt (100%) shipped to China during the quarter (H1: 2.2 Mt). The first customer collections were completed in April following tertiary crushing in China, with Q2 sales totalling 0.4 Mt (100%) and achieved Fe at 65.8%. RIO does make it clear whether this
Australia’s dwelling construction is already running well behind the Albanese government’s 1.2 million five-year target, as set out in the National Housing Accord. The target requires a construction run rate of 240,000 homes annually ā a level of dwelling construction that Australia has never achieved before. In the year to March 2026 ā the latest
In this weekās podcast, MB Fundās Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, explores the hidden cost of portfolio turnover ā examining how frequent trading can quietly erode long-term returns through higher tax bills, why every taxable transaction matters, and how a more tax-aware investment approach can help investors keep more of what they earn. Download presentation
TME with the charts. The bubble was always in the chips, not in the hyperscalers buying them. The AI unwind has arrived Just six weeks after Korea’s AI frenzy reached its peak, one of the world’s most crowded trades has undergone a violent reset. Valuations have compressed, leverage has been unwound and momentum has collapsed.
Earlier this month, theĀ Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released an analysis purporting to show how changes in the volume of NOM would impact the federal budget balance: The PBO claims that the federal budget balance would improve by around $80.6 billion over the medium term under the scenario of āHigherā NOM (+40,000 migrants), while a scenario
I’ve often noted that the market likes to test a new Fed chairman with some hawkish expectations. Today, Kevin Warsh failed, delivering for Trump instead. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is continuing
On Wednesday, I presented expert evidence to the Senate Select Committee on Productivity in Australia. Below is my opening statement. In February 2023, former Labor Home Affairs minister, Clare OāNeil, delivered the AFR Workforce Summit Keynote address, where she stated that Australiaās immigration system was ābrokenā, āunstrategicā and āis not delivering for business, for migrants,
Goldman is getting dovish after yesterday’s softer-than-expected CPI. It notes that the quarterly trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred indicator of underlying inflation, increased by 0.81% quarter over quarter, or 3.65% year over year. The result fell short of the RBA’s May SMP projection (1.0%qoq). It notes as well that more recent monthly trimmed mean CPI
There is no stopping this. Overnight: Houthis hit another Saudi oil tanker, making it three in as many days. Demands toll for Bab al-Mandab. Saudi bombed Iranian militia in Iraq. Iran attacked US forces in Jordan (first time it has struck before provocation). Israel attacked the West Bank, Lebanon and Gaza. Drone strikes LNG terminal
With the release of the latest inflation data from the ABS came relief that a rate rise at the August RBA meeting was now largely off the table. The RBA’s May forecasts in their latest Statement on Monetary Policy (SOMP) included an annual trimmed mean inflation rate of 3.8% for the year ending in June.
For years, I watched in despair as my fellow Victorians displayed acute Stockholm Syndrome regarding the state Labor government. It seemed that no matter what the state Labor government did or how poorly it performed, Victorians would continue to vote them back into government. It appeared that we had become a one-party state. Victoria’s nine-month
The problem with the anti-renewable energy argument is that it is a weaving, bobbing, amorphous line of thinking that changes when you try to pin it down. I’ve tried to do all in one arguments, but I think that is playing into the problem. If there are 10 arguments that I need to debunk, it
