Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Australia’s housing market is facing its biggest decline in more than 40 years, with values already down by 5.9% since April across the five major capitals. Tuesday’s 25 bp rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took the official cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.60% and will add around $120 per
Tonight I will appear on DFA Live with Martin North from 8.00pm AEST, where we will dive into today’s RBA interest rate decision, the worsening housing correction, 2027 recession risks, the latest Intergenerational Report, and other topics. You can ask a question live. The YouTube feed is below. I hope to see you there.
As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unanimously lifted the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% at today’s monetary policy meeting, taking the cash rate to 4.60%—a 15-year high. The RBA media release was hawkish and noted the following: “Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising.
Victoria is commonly regarded as Australia’s most poorly managed state, with massive debt, soaring crime, endemic corruption and waste in infrastructure projects, potholed roads, degrading public services, and the mainland’s high unemployment rate. A new comparative analysis by economist and former fund manager Maurice O’Shannassy has also ranked Victoria the most mismanaged state in the
Energy tsar, Chris Bowen, is right. Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has unleashed a mammoth attack against Australia’s ageing coal-fired power plants, warning their frequent unplanned outages are making electricity bills dearer as he prepares to lead pre-COP talks in the Pacific. Mr Bowen, who has travelled to Saudi Arabia and India in
South East Queensland (SEQ) is now leading Australia’s house price downturn. According to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, home values in Brisbane (including the Gold Coast) have declined by 1.5% over the past month, the sharpest decline among the major capital city areas: Brisbane’s auction clearance rate is also the weakest among the three largest
Wall-to-wall panic over interest rates today as the RBA readies another hike. News. AFR. The Oz. The Age. SMH. Herald Sun. Buy bonds, anyone? Reasons to do so: The RBA tightening has front-run global central banks. Aussie growth is falling away faster, led by house prices shitting the bed. Jobs market too. AI counter-revolution exploding
Australia has run one of the strongest immigration programs over the past 20 years, growing the nation’s population by an extraordinary 37% between 2005 and 2025, easily outpacing other advanced nations: The Economist Magazine last week argued that many advanced economies are experiencing slower growth because productivity is weak while immigration is high. In wealthy,
DXY is paused at recent highs. EUR the opposite. North Asia is stalled. Adding more pressure to AUD. Gold was liquidated. Brent futures are a headline windsock. Dated is the version that matters. No growth shock in base metals yet. Big miners are less reassuring. EM stocks OK. But not for long, as junk falls
War headlines today: Iran and the US are talking. Iran and the US are not talking. Iran claims 19 ships were attacked in Hormuz. UKMTO says zero. Houthis bomb Yanbu and Jazan. Who knows? It’s all fog of war now. What we can say for certain is that Dated Brent is still indicating extreme physical
As falling housing prices continue to spread to more and more markets across the nation, the eyes of the public and of property analysts is often fixed on the various price indices measuring the decline. As things currently stand, prices are down 5.9% at a five-capital-city aggregate level, with the worst performer, Sydney, down 8.3%,
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hand down its interest rate decision later today, with financial markets and economists widely tipping a 0.25% increase in the official cash rate (OCR). The likely OCR increase comes at a time when mortgage holders already spend a near-record share of their incomes servicing their loans. Financial markets
The Albanese government is trying to censor debate via its Digital Duty of Care Bill, which would make the eSafety Commissioner the central regulator with significantly expanded powers to police what we say online. The Bill contains broad definitions of “harm” and “misinformation” and gives the Minister for Communications and the eSafety Commissioner wide discretion.
TME with more. The earnings test beneath the rally The S&P 500 is near its highs, but only about a quarter of its stocks are above their 50-day averages. Earnings estimates show a similar divide. The index’s Q3 estimate rose 1.2% from 30 June to 31 August, while estimates fell in seven of eleven sectors.
New national polling shows Australians have lost confidence across the entire housing market — buyers, sellers, renters and investors alike — reflecting deep financial stress, falling prices, and expectations of further RBA rate rises. The SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation survey of 1659 voters between September 8–14 found: 56% say it’s a bad time
The ferrous complex is still under pressure. C5 shipping prices have come down to $15.63 on Friday, so my normalised CFR price is sitting at $89.51. The signals are still poor. MySteel steel indexes are still through the floor. Demand is crap. But production is phwoar. Steel inventory is still above last year but is
In 2002, the inaugural Intergenerational Report (IGR) was released, which forecast that net overseas migration (NOM) would be 90,000 annually and that the population would grow to 25.3 million by 2042. Instead, Australia’s population has hit 28.1 million, according to the ABS Population Clock, about 4.5 million (19%) higher than the 23.6 million originally assumed
Australian PMIs are peeling away from the pack and not in a good way. Activity no bueno. Employment no bueno. Price rises are slower than elsewhere. \ 5.4% in the Aussie 10-year is worst-case inflation + 2-3%. This is a good bond fund return for buy-and-hold investors. The problem is, even though the RBA is
War headlines today. Trump rejects Iran’s 7-day MOU plan. Iran bombs 19 ships in Hormuz in response. Still talking. Houthis fire more missiles at Saudi. The biggest news was the Trump-Xi summit, which ended with the former demanding China produce more oil products and the latter ignoring the request. As of Friday, Dated Brent still
Since One Nation began its rise in the polls a few months after the last federal election in May 2025, the reasons for its rise have been hotly debated. For a long time, One Nation’s threat to political fortunes outside of the Coalition was largely dismissed. This echoed the initial response to the rise of
The interest rate futures market overwhelmingly expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lift the official cash rate by 0.25% on Tuesday. The futures market has also priced in a high probability of two further rate hikes over the next six months, which would take the cash rate to 5.10%. Given that mortgage payments
Ahead of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate meeting on Tuesday, widely expected to lift the official cash rate by 0.25%, Australia’s auction market weakened this weekend, posting the lowest preliminary clearance rate in 10 weeks. According to Cotality, the preliminary clearance rate came in at 50.3%, down from 54.0% last week, which was revised down
By Stephen Saunders Imagine a calmer and safer post-Bondi Australia. Immigration is low and less divisive. The government need not lie about it all the time or continually attack citizen-voters.  Albanese Labor is never going to be that government. It’s inconceivable, simply not in their elitist and globalist DNA. Canada and other prosperous nations prove
International Reading: Majority of voters say country is on wrong track, favor Democrats in 2026: Poll – The Hill Trump ready to ban diesel gas exports to lower costs at home – something his own energy secretary says could backfire – Independent Team Trump can’t keep its story straight on a proposed ban on ‌diesel
In this week’s podcast, Damien Klassen is joined by Martin North of Walk the World and DFA Live to uncover where Australia’s housing downturn is hitting hardest. We look beyond the national numbers to identify the suburbs and postcodes seeing the biggest price falls, what these areas have in common, and why some parts of
