Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Cotality has released its final auction results for last weekend, with the national capital city clearance rate falling to just 56.9%, the lowest level since January 2025. As illustrated in the next chart, the average national capital city final clearance rate for March (57%) is also the lowest since January 2025 and points to falling
The non-market sector, which comprises primarily government-funded jobs in the public service, healthcare, social assistance, and education industries, has accounted for 67% of the growth in filled jobs since the first quarter of 2023. This came despite the non-market sector comprising less than one-third of the total jobs in the economy: The primary driver of
Victoria already has the lowest credit rating in Australia (AA). Major ratings agencies — S&P Global, Moody’s, and Fitch — have all warned Victoria that its rapidly rising debt poses a serious risk of another credit‑rating downgrade, which would sharply increase the state’s borrowing costs. They have specifically highlighted Victoria’s high and growing debt‑to‑revenue ratio,
Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie has told Guardian Australia he’s open to the idea of a 25% tax on gas profits as part of a sovereign wealth fund which could strengthen the budget. “I think a lot of people, Australians, feel like the multinationals don’t have a social licence, that they’ve had a really good run of our wealth
Liberal opposition leader Angus Taylor reportedly intends to attack One Nation’s immigration policy, arguing that severe immigration cuts would worsen the housing crisis by starving the construction sector of workers. However, Professor David Flint has demolished Taylor’s claims in The Spectator, noting that migrants make up only a very small share of Australia’s construction workforce.
In the last few days, RBA hawkish fears have eased, even though the central bank has maintained its rhetoric. Market expectation of another hike in May has pulled back to roughly 50/50. The key day was Tuesday, which was the day of the soft flash PMI and a 60-year low in consumer sentiment. These are
It’s pretty clear that the American Idiot has opted for boots-on-the-ground. There are some 8000 troops headed for the Gulf as we speak. Two contingents via amphibious assault aircraft carriers and the 82nd Airborne. The full complement will arrive mid-April, but as many as 6ooo will be in place within a week. Who knows what
Charts from TME. Death cross for major indexes as various short-term moving averages plunge below long. Plenty more where that came from as VIX mounts another charge. Sell or sell. This was Charlie McElligott’s point yesterday. Volatility control funds face steepening cliffs. EM volatility is telling us this is not over. More bears… But in
Australia consistently ranks among the highest in the world for household wealth. For example, the UBS Global Wealth Report 2025 ranked Australia second worldwide in median household wealth, behind Luxembourg. However, unlike other nations, real estate accounts for the majority of Australia’s household wealth. Australian housing values have risen inexorably for the past 30 years.
For many Australians, their first introduction to economics comes in high school, often in a Business Studies class, where they learn the basics of commerce, such as supply and demand. Despite this being a rather basic law of economics and broader civilisation, with changing price conditions related to supply and demand being reflected in archaeological
So far, Cotality’s daily dwelling values index is holding up amid back-to-back interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). At the 5-city aggregate level, dwelling values have risen by 0.6% over the past 28 days, although there is wide variation across the major markets. The interest rate futures market has fully priced
The ferrous complex is trading the war, not itself. Rising input costs are assumed to be the presiding force. But, under the bonnet, the start of the steel is an unmitigated disaster. CISA steel output is down 6.5% year to date. Yet steel inventories are rising. The iron ore port pile-up has slowed, but it’s
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, explores how the fallout from the conflict with Iran has unexpectedly turned Trump into a catalyst for green energy — examining how his policies, escalation decisions, and market disruptions are fuelling conditions that accelerate the shift toward renewables, and what this surprising dynamic means
A new Senate inquiry, led by Senator Fatima Payman, is investigating why many Australian university graduates are struggling to find work despite completing degrees. The inquiry focuses on concerns that students are receiving lower‑quality education, including “recycled lectures,” outdated content, and insufficient preparation for real‑world employment. Senator Payman argues that many graduates are facing a
Equities do not like bond volatility, and bond volatility is rising. Charts from TME. Tracking the ten-year. Volatility is next. Uh oh. This is not your grandfather’s geopolitical shock? This is what the Iranians want. 1. A complete halt to “aggression and assassinations” by the enemy. 2. The establishment of concrete mechanisms to ensure that
Roy Morgan has released analysis showing that 30.3% of mortgage holders would be “at risk” of stress if the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) were to lift the official cash rate by another 25 bps at its May Meeting— the third consecutive increase: This would take mortgage stress back to its recent peak achieved in
The great Aussie fuel bludger is still paying $151 per barrel for Oman crude today and probably more, as it scavenges and scabs barrels wherever it can. The government likes to trumpet the situation as some sort of success, but how can this be considered success when we are paying so much for our fuel?
Australia is obviously facing a renewed inflation shock driven by soaring petrol and diesel prices. Around half of the CPI inflation basket is affected by higher fuel prices, reflecting that virtually every good transported into and around Australia relies on diesel-powered transport. Higher diesel and fertiliser costs will also help to drive up food inflation,
It doesn’t usually make much sense to think of a central bank in terms of good and evil. But that is before you have met the fantastically inept Reserve Bank of Australia. This bank has one function: to use economic insight to look into the future so that it can make calls on setting interest
As Albo cowards fiddle, Australia is facing a worsening diesel shortage that is beginning to disrupt multiple parts of the economy. Port operator DP World Australia warned that without priority access to fuel, container terminals could slow or stop, threatening both imports and exports nationwide. Vegetable growers are cutting production, with many reducing planting or
Amidst an environment increasingly defined by crisis-driven reality smacking policymakers in the face, the failure of decades of Australian policymakers to prepare a resilient energy security policy is being laid bare. As nations such as Thailand, Vietnam and Bangladesh seek to reduce their energy consumption, even though Thailand has 90 days’ worth of oil in
Earlier this month, the founder of SQM Research, Louis Christopher, forecast that Sydney home prices would decline by between -2% and -6% in 2026: SQM’s “base case” forecast assumed the official cash rate would rise only once more this year, to 4.35%. However, the latest pricing from the interest rate futures market suggests that the
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released monthly CPI inflation data for February, which obviously pre-dates the Middle Eastern energy shock. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, headline CPI inflation rose by 3.7% in the 12 months to February 2026, down slightly from 3.8% in January. The largest contributor to
Victoria’s “fast‑tracked” housing program — designed to bypass councils and community objections on the promise of delivering shovel‑ready homes — has produced almost no actual housing, raising major questions about the Allan government’s planning strategy and credibility. Since the Development Facilitation Program (DFP) was expanded in Sept 2023, just six homes have been completed. The
Apparently, the American Madman has sent Iran a 15-point plan for peace. We can only speculate on what is in it, but reports are not encouraging. Complete decommissioning of important nuclear facilities. Transfer or strictly regulate stockpiles of enriched uranium. Terminate the ballistic missile programme. Terminate proxy group support for the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, etc.
