Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) has attacked the proposed reduction in the capital gains tax (CGT) discount, arguing that: Reducing the CGT discount (from 50% to 25%) would push landlords to raise rents to compensate for lower after‑tax capital gains. The proposed reduction could potentially affect about 2.4 million renting households. In a
ABS private capex numbers are out and are impressive, if rather narrow. Future capex is expected to rise 7.3% over the next year. Growth in equipment and machinery has soared to 14.3%. Driving the lion’s share of services investment. While mining capex is expected to fall o.4%. The industry segments provide a clear picture. Data
Victoria’s infrastructure program—intended to support a fast‑growing population—has been undermined by corruption and lawlessness. Productivity in the construction sector has fallen over the past decade, while costs have risen sharply. Investigations into the Victorian branch of the CFMEU uncovered systemic criminality and corruption across major construction sites, including: Violence and threats of violence. Infiltration by
Charts from TME. NDX is holding at a convergence of massive support lines. Tech volatility is still ramping on the IA fear trade churning under the bonnet. Puts galore! The last time volatility hit these levels, the squeeze was impressive. Are we at peak capex? If so, the money from hyperscalers will soon flow back
A record 760,000 Australians aged over 65 are now in the workforce—the highest number since records began in 1995 and up nearly 20% since 2022. This marks a major shift in older‑age labour participation. The Coalition claims that cost‑of‑living pressures are forcing people to retire later, but economists and ageing advocates say the picture is
Data from China’s Golden Week Lunar New Year holiday is filtering through, and it’s another bust, after all. The hospitality industry’s growth momentum from long holidays before Lunar New Year (LNY) Golden Week strengthened but it was all about numbers not per capita spending.. After taking into account the length of the holidays, domestic visitors
Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen is celebrating the tiny 0.4% decline in Australia’s transport emissions in the year to September 2025, which Bowen claims is “proof” that his government’s heavy subsidisation of battery electric vehicles (EVs) is working. “We are on track to meet our climate targets if we stay the course and
Punter’s Politics is spot on about the gas cartel today. The excise on beer is significantly higher than what we collect via the Petroleum Resources Rent Tax (PRRT): HECS is also a revenue boom versus gas: Below is another cracker chart: Or try Norway for a comparison: Any way you cut it, Australia is being
DXY traded sideways as the American madman couldn’t stop loving the sound of his own voice with the longest SOTU ever. It said nothing of importance. CNY is off, and AUD will trail it. No Iran war and oil tumbles. Gold up for no reason tall. AI metals party resumes. Mining parabolas too. Copper is
In the debate over the appropriate level of migration into Australia, the argument is often made that there would be significant economic downsides if a major reduction in intake were to be realised. On a very short-term time horizon, that is almost certainly the case. With 10 out of the last 13 quarters seeing falls
Australia recorded the strongest net overseas migration (NOM) in the nation’s history between Q4 2019 and Q2 2025, with 266,000 net migrants arriving annually, including the Covid-19 border closure: This huge immigration inflow had a devastating impact on the rental market. Since the end of 2019, the record net migration flows (i.e., 266,000 per annum)
Adelaide Airport managing director Brenton Cox has labelled immigration critics “economically illiterate”, arguing that lower immigration levels would hinder growth and hinder housing supply. “Those things (people say) like people coming to Australia are ‘taking jobs and taking our houses’… But the macro (economic) work absolutely disproves that”. “It makes clear (immigrants) are creating jobs
The ABS monthly number is out, and whoa! Both headline and trimmed mean came in 10bps above consensus. The details aren’t good, either. How has Australia managed to experience 4% goods inflation while China is flooding the world with dirt-cheap products displaced from the US? Energy shock, I’m guessing. The same is still playing out
The charts look absolutely horrible, but when Goldman does a seaonal comparions it’s not as bad. It compared the daily average volume during the 2026 CNY holidays (Feb15th-23rd) vs. 2025 holiday period (Jan 28th-Feb 4th): against an undemanding base, sampled primary markets recorded improvements with daily average volume rising +39%, while secondary markets registered more
The ABC reported that only half of the 22,000 homes approved for construction in Western Sydney are proceeding to construction because there are not enough buyers able or willing to pay enough to cover construction costs. KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley warned that interest rate rises would worsen the viability of new apartment projects due
Charts from TME. The IGV software index is trading at 23 RSI. Seventh level of hell. Yet AI remains a tool, not a process manager. The hallucination rate is still high and is a feature, not a bug of LLMs. My argument is that humans may have already proven themselves more useless and mistake-prone than
The evidence from around the world shows that when you raise energy costs, your economy deindustrialises. Consider the following examples. Germany: Germany once had about 22 GW of nuclear power, producing over 160 TWh annually at a reasonable cost and with no emissions. Following the Fukushima accident in 2011, Berlin shut down 8 GW of
ANZ’s major projects series has some good and bad news. In 2024–2025, major projects in Australia’s pipeline will reach $71 billion. They are expected to peak at $105 billion in 2027–2028, later than ANZ previously thought. This change happened because project schedules and financial situations have changed. After a decade of huge public megaprojects, Australia’s
Australia’s housing affordability has never been worse. According to Cotality, the nation’s dwelling price-to-income ratio was tracking at a record high of 8.2 in the September quarter of 2025: The time taken to save a 20% deposit was a record high 11 years, according to Cotality: The share of income required to pay the median
Today’s national polling roundup suggests a modest movement following the Liberal leadership change, with the LNP improving slightly but not decisively reshaping the political landscape. The latest YouGov-Sky News Pulse poll shows the Coalition rising three points to 22%, narrowing but not overtaking One Nation, which fell four points to 24%. Labor slipped one point
There’s not much very encouraging going on for ferrous. Chinese markets reopned, popped and dropped. Steel is at news lows. SGX was the outlier. SMM tells of a weak market as the most-traded contract, I2605, closed at 740.5 yuan/mt, which is 1.79% lower than the previous trading day. This means that DCE iron ore continued
The issue of economic management has often been a hotly contested topic in the battles and debates that define Australian federal politics. For many Australians who follow federal politics, the phrase “superior economic management” is all but burned into our collective memories. But the simple reality is that both sides have done a poor job
The Australian newspaper has used the Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO) budget tool to attack One Nation’s proposal to cap visas at 130,000 a year and aim for net-zero immigration. The analysis claims that a net-zero migration policy could reduce federal government revenue by about $100 billion over the next decade, including nearly $80 billion in
Tonight I will be appearing on DFA Live with Martin North from 8.00pm AEST, where we will discuss everything to do with the housing market and economy. The YouTube feed is below. I hope to see you there.
Chinese markets are open again, and dirt is flying. This is a typical post-Lunar New Year bounce, yet I am opting to look through it this year to the June seasonal headwind because the market remains fundamentally weak. Witness China bullying around iron ore price assessments. Chinese central desk buyer CMRG has pushed several major
