Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
In a truly crazy moment of hawkish overkill, the Lunatic RBA has hiked rates directly into a demand-destroying energy shock that has all the hallmarks of a second Global Financial Crisis. It doesn’t matter if the shock turns out to be short-lived. The issue is that the shock is a highly asymmetric risk of a
The latest SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation Survey, which was released in February before the United States and Israel attacked Iran, showed that Australians had entered 2026 with a “markedly darker outlook on their standard of living” amid “ongoing interest rate uncertainty and global economic volatility”. More people now expect their circumstances to worsen
As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%—a back-to-back increase. The decision was a close call, with five members voting to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10% and four members voting to leave the cash rate target
The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is a major driver of the growth in public spending. It has also driven an unprecedented boom in healthcare and social assistance jobs, which since 2020 have decoupled from other English-speaking nations: The latest costings on the NDIS, illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, reveal that NDIS
It’s not a crisis, and there is no shortage of anything, except, increasingly, everything. Do not expect your government to tell you the truth during periods of war. It will lie every chance it gets. Defence Minister Richard Marles has failed to rule out fuel rationing in Australia as the conflict in Iran stretches into its third
If you want proof that Infrastructure Australia (IA) is another politicised agency, look no further than Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop (SRL). Across multiple public evaluations and media reports, IA highlighted three core problems with the SRL: unreliable cost estimates, a weak business case, and major delivery risks. These concerns were serious enough that IA warned
Markets always approach Armageddon with a bullish charge. But SPX is still bleeding out. Where oil goes, stocks go. Trump’s clowns are jawboning like crazy, but real oil shortages are beginning to hit and will rise rapidly from here. Market is long oil but can get longer. CTAs have piled in. Oil volatility is down,
I have been highly critical of Teal MP Alegra Spender’s positions on immigration. But her latest salvo on tax reform is spot on. Allegra Spender’s new tax white paper is a direct challenge to the federal government’s incremental approach to reform, arguing that Australia’s tax system is increasingly unfair to younger generations and structurally unsustainable
China’s January/February growth numbers were out yesterday and showed some broad strength. Industrial production growth increased to 6.3% yoy in January-February from 5.2% yoy in December due to significantly stronger-than-expected exports. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth significantly increased from -13.0% yoy in December to +1.8% yoy in January-February. However, there is weirdness in this data
The Albanese government’s expanded 5% deposit scheme for first-home buyers came into effect on October 1, 2025, and had an immediate impact on the mortgage market. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) latest housing finance data, the number of mortgages issued to first home buyers lifted by 6.8% in the December quarter of
Gulf carnage is spreading fast. Fuel product prices have surged as global energy markets tighten, with some refined products nearly tripling in price. Due to a particularly limited supply, distillates like diesel and jet fuel prices have risen significantly more quickly than crude oil. Petrol prices have mostly followed crude due to the Middle East’s
I wrote yesterday that the RBA must not hike today. There is a good example of a central bank that found itself in a similar position in 2008. Michael Hartnett at BofA notes that from August 2007 to July 2008, oil prices ranged from $70 to $140 per barrel, and subprime tremors started (BNP, Northern
Imagine, for a moment, a very different Australia. One where the nation has had nothing but competent governance for decades, all conducted in the national interest, with strong bipartisan support for the long-term projects necessary to secure any nation’s future. It would be a stark contrast to the current state of the nation, where we
Richard Denniss, co‑Chief Executive Officer of The Australia Institute, published an article dismissing the claim that Australia is suffering from a housing shortage. Denniss claims that “Australia actually has more than enough houses, they’re just owned by investors”. He cited ABS data on the number of dwelling showing that “over the past 10 years, the
Australian gas prices have held at $10Gj over the past few days. I have been relatively confident that the East Coast gas export cartel will not repeat the Ukraine War price shock at home, knowing, as it does, that the public won’t stand for it again. However, I have a bad feeling every time our
Last week, I presented detailed data on how the sharp reduction in net overseas migration (NOM) in Canada, which turned negative last year, has suppressed rents. After experiencing explosive rental growth in 2022 and 2023 amid record NOM, Canada has experienced 17 consecutive monthly declines in rents: Canadian rents are now tracking at a 33-month
Chinese property is OK post-LNY but the year has started poorly. The secondary market is still awash. EV sales have dropped post-incentives. But watch this space. If there is one winner globally from the American Madman’s war, this is it. Broader car sales are similar. Consumer depression continues. Coal isn’t growing, but its sovereign value
Australia’s largest real estate group, Ray White, has issued a stern warning that proposed changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount would trigger a major shock to the rental market. Ray White managing director Dan White and chief economist Nerida Conisbee told 10,500 members that the federal government is considering reducing
When the war in the Middle East first broke out, I warned that Australia faced a triple energy threat of higher petrol/diesel prices, higher gas prices, and higher electricity prices. Vivek Dhar, Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics at CBA, published a detailed analysis warning of similar risks, arguing that Australia’s energy system is facing
The American Madman raised the prospect of talks to resolve a dispute that has disrupted oil markets and nearly stopped shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz. “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” Trump stated, adding that Tehran’s promise to give
As the world continues to assess the impact and implications of a protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in the Middle East, Australia is facing major challenges to its fuel security. According to the latest snapshot provided by Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen, Australia possesses stocks worth 36 days of
While everyone knows about the risks of oil and refined fuels, there is much more coming from the Persian Gulf than just those. Morgan Stanley helps us summarise where the shortages will be in due course. Sulphur Concentration: The Middle East accounts for 45% of the world market for sulphur (fertilizer/chemical chain), a crucial component
Proponents of high immigration claim that it is necessary to alleviate purported labour shortages and an ageing population. These arguments were always spurious: Australia has run one of the largest migration programs in the world this century, yet has suffered from persistent labour shortages. In effect, Australia has played a game of migration ‘whack-a-mole’ this
The central bank would be insane to hike this week, and I don’t believe that it will. The energy shock that is overrunning Australia is going to shut down the economy in record time. My sense is that a panic shutdown is already underway as Australians realise the Iran war will cut fuel supplies by
When all is said and done, the RBA can do 3 things this Tuesday It can lift rates It can leave rates alone It can drop them The last is the easiest to dismiss. In February, the RBA told us, rightly, that inflation was running hotter than they liked and that a rate hike
