Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Richard Denniss, co‑Chief Executive Officer of The Australia Institute, published an article dismissing the claim that Australia is suffering from a housing shortage. Denniss claims that “Australia actually has more than enough houses, they’re just owned by investors”. He cited ABS data on the number of dwelling showing that “over the past 10 years, the
Australian gas prices have held at $10Gj over the past few days. I have been relatively confident that the East Coast gas export cartel will not repeat the Ukraine War price shock at home, knowing, as it does, that the public won’t stand for it again. However, I have a bad feeling every time our
Last week, I presented detailed data on how the sharp reduction in net overseas migration (NOM) in Canada, which turned negative last year, has suppressed rents. After experiencing explosive rental growth in 2022 and 2023 amid record NOM, Canada has experienced 17 consecutive monthly declines in rents: Canadian rents are now tracking at a 33-month
Chinese property is OK post-LNY but the year has started poorly. The secondary market is still awash. EV sales have dropped post-incentives. But watch this space. If there is one winner globally from the American Madman’s war, this is it. Broader car sales are similar. Consumer depression continues. Coal isn’t growing, but its sovereign value
Australia’s largest real estate group, Ray White, has issued a stern warning that proposed changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax (CGT) discount would trigger a major shock to the rental market. Ray White managing director Dan White and chief economist Nerida Conisbee told 10,500 members that the federal government is considering reducing
When the war in the Middle East first broke out, I warned that Australia faced a triple energy threat of higher petrol/diesel prices, higher gas prices, and higher electricity prices. Vivek Dhar, Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics at CBA, published a detailed analysis warning of similar risks, arguing that Australia’s energy system is facing
The American Madman raised the prospect of talks to resolve a dispute that has disrupted oil markets and nearly stopped shipping in the vital Strait of Hormuz. “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet,” Trump stated, adding that Tehran’s promise to give
As the world continues to assess the impact and implications of a protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in the Middle East, Australia is facing major challenges to its fuel security. According to the latest snapshot provided by Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen, Australia possesses stocks worth 36 days of
While everyone knows about the risks of oil and refined fuels, there is much more coming from the Persian Gulf than just those. Morgan Stanley helps us summarise where the shortages will be in due course. Sulphur Concentration: The Middle East accounts for 45% of the world market for sulphur (fertilizer/chemical chain), a crucial component
Proponents of high immigration claim that it is necessary to alleviate purported labour shortages and an ageing population. These arguments were always spurious: Australia has run one of the largest migration programs in the world this century, yet has suffered from persistent labour shortages. In effect, Australia has played a game of migration ‘whack-a-mole’ this
The central bank would be insane to hike this week, and I don’t believe that it will. The energy shock that is overrunning Australia is going to shut down the economy in record time. My sense is that a panic shutdown is already underway as Australians realise the Iran war will cut fuel supplies by
When all is said and done, the RBA can do 3 things this Tuesday It can lift rates It can leave rates alone It can drop them The last is the easiest to dismiss. In February, the RBA told us, rightly, that inflation was running hotter than they liked and that a rate hike
This month’s consumer sentiment survey by Westpac and the Melbourne Institute suggested that homebuyers have gone cold on Sydney property. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, homebuyer sentiment has fallen sharply in Sydney, as has dwelling value growth: Recent auction data is also gloomy. Last week’s final auction clearance rate for Sydney was
By Stephen Saunders Leaving Anthony Albanese as a world outlier, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has stymied Canada’s population growth to ease the housing pain. Sigh, his Australian visit was all framed around “middle powers” vs Trump. Australia endures historic highs in mass migration and historic lows in housing affordability. But the elite narrative is
International reading: US to release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserve – Reuters Iran says it’s ready for a long war that would ‘destroy’ global economy – Lemonde Saudi oil giant warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ from Iran war as three commercial ships are ‘attacked’ in Strait of Hormuz and Tehran tries to
The story for February was the surging Australian dollar running into incredible profit growth forecasts. Profit forecasts got stronger throughout the month, helping share prices higher, but for Australian investors, the rising AUD offset all of those gains. The key question in March is whether the profit growth (15%+ forecast for each of the next two years)
The Centre for Population’s latest Population Statement forecast that Australia’s capital cities will swell by 10,850,000 people over the next 41 years. Melbourne (9.1 million) and Sydney (8.5 million) are projected to become megacities by the mid-2060s, while Brisbane is tipped to grow by around 1.8 million to 4.6 million, and Perth by 1.7 million
Rising energy costs drive fertiliser prices up because modern fertiliser production is fundamentally an energy-intensive industrial process. The link is direct, mechanical, and unavoidable: energy is both a feedstock and a fuel. For nitrogen fertilisers (i.e., urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonia), natural gas is the single biggest input cost, used as a feedstock in the
Joe Walker interviewed former immigration department bureaucrat-turned-influencer Abul Rizvi last year. During the interview, Rizvi openly acknowledged that slowing population ageing accounted for approximately “80%” of the motivation behind the 2001 changes that significantly increased Australia’s intake of migrants, particularly international students. WALKER: And so back in the late 90s, early 2000s, when you were
There is no hubris like BHP hubris. When you put yourself in front of an angry dictator you’ve been gouging for twenty years, eventually you’ll get yours. China has widened a ban on BHP iron ore for the second time in two weeks, escalating a months-long contract dispute with the world’s third-largest supplier of the
One Nation proposes allowing wage-earning couples with children to split their income and file joint tax returns, potentially saving thousands of dollars in taxes each year. Senator Pauline Hanson launched One Nation’s income-splitting policy in January, which permits couples with at least one dependent child to combine their incomes and divide the total equally for
Let’s ask the question that’s plaguing the Australian bourgeoisie’s nightmares today: will the oil shock of 2026 crash house prices? I’m pleased to inform you that the answer is becoming increasingly “yes.” As a rule of thumb, every 10% rise in the oil price adds 0.4% to inflation. Given that Iran is winning the war
For decades, Israel has tried to trap US presidents in a war with Iran. All have dodged the trap until now. The American Idiot has walked straight into the trap, either due to his own stupidity or Jeffrey Epstein pictures, or similar, and the trap has snapped shut behind him. Consider how bad a day
In the weeks since news of the war in Iran first hit the airwaves, the Albanese government has been attempting to reassure the Australian public that there is no real concern about fuel supply in Australia. The focus was on claims that fuel stocks are adequate and above the minimum mandatory levels. On Thursday, Energy
Independent economist Gerrard Minack recently posted the following chart illustrating how Australia’s rental inflation has tracked population growth: CBA’s latest housing market update notes that “there is a particularly strong relationship between increases in higher-density housing supply and rent growth”: “This likely reflects the fact that apartments make up a disproportionate share of the rental
