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DXY is back. EUR is unravelling. Could be tactical. AUD follows EUR. Lead boots getting heavier. Stupid Trump has revived oil with Venezuela and Iran alk. Copper bubble begins. Helping RIO. EM meh. Junk stressy. Yields up with oil. Stocks plunged. The Australian dollar has once again been tariffed. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) attacked Tuesday’s federal budget for failing to stimulate housing supply, describing the budget as “a missed opportunity to deliver a concrete housing plan”. “Australia needs to be delivering a quarter of million new homes year on year to meet our growing population and put downwards pressure on housing and rental
Never say never with iron ore. especially with seasonals. Having been unusually weak, we’ve popped in line with seasonal strength. SMM has decent report on conditions. Today, the iron ore futures gradually strengthened after a weak start, fluctuating upward throughout the day. The most-traded contract I2505 finally closed at 780, with a daily increase of
The Market Ear is still looking short-term. SPX technicals SPX reversed right on the 21 day moving average. Not overly surprising given the recent squeeze. Support: 5600, resistance: 5850. Maybe we just need to range for a bit… Source: Refinitiv NASDAQ technicals Also reversing right on the 21 day. Support: 19600, resistance: 20800. Source: Refinitiv
As a politician, you have got to know when to hold them and when to fold them. During a cost-of-living crisis, the last thing a politician seeking election should do is oppose tax cuts for three-quarters of the voting population. Yet, that is exactly what the Coalition did in response to Labor’s modest tax cuts
As the April 2 deadline the ultimate round of US tariff’s beckons, the Fanta Fuhrer couldn’t help shoot early with a blanket 25% car tariff, thus dooming the domestic US car industry as the world will shift to boycott US made vehicles. Great work Donny! Trump’s Tariff Tirade beckons. European shares were able to rebound
Earlier this month, Roy Morgan released its shadow labour market report, which reported a significant increase in unemployment to 11.5% in February, with underutilisation (i.e., unemployment plus underemployment) surging to 21.7%. Roy Morgan’s underutilisation rate is the highest on record outside of the pandemic. Roy Morgan CEO Michelle Levine addressed the Mumbrella Retail Marketing Summit
Data released this month by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the total value of Australia’s dwelling stock hit a record high of $11,032.2 billion at the end of 2024, with the average dwelling valued at $976,800. The hyperinflation of home values helps to explain why Australian households are ranked among the wealthiest
Asian stock markets are doing slightly better today given the mixed result overnight although S&P futures are looking more robust given more Trump talk about caving in on tariffs, although who knows what will actually happen as another distraction is likely soon given the recent intelligence foul up by half his Cabinet. The USD is
The fish rots from the head, they say, and Michael Stutchbury’s destruction of the AFR is great case in point. Today, he confesses. How about this? Australian supermarket shoppers have been hit by significantly lower grocery price rises than if they were living in the UK, the US, Canada or New Zealand. Yes, lower price
The Market Ear argues for the reverse pivot today. Europe vs US is done 1. Valuation gap closed… SAP on 40x, GOOG on 18.5x, MSFT on 29x. Mag7 valuation now looking ‘cheap’ vs historic 2. Europe benefited from exodus from US tech , US tech as a sell is significantly less obvious here 3. Market
Wednesday’s monthly CPI indicator from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) printed significantly below expectations. The headline CPI was only 2.4%, below market expectations of 2.5% and below the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2-3% target band. The underlying measure, trimmed mean inflation, also fell to 2.7% and is now well within
Last week, the Albanese government pledged over $800 million in production subsidies to a green hydrogen development in remote Western Australia. This is part of an $8.7 billion federal government war chest to create incentives for green hydrogen. Labor’s Future Made in Australia (FMIA) plan, announced in 2024, provided a budget allocation of $6.7 billion
Earlier this month, I learned that a friend’s home one kilometre away had been the target of an attempted home invasion. The burglars hopped over a neighbour’s side fence and tried to force their way into the house via the back door. Fortunately, my friend awoke, made a ruckus, and the burglars fled. The following
Via the ABS. CPI analytical series Seasonally adjusted 2.4 CPI excluding volatile items* and holiday travel 2.7 Annual trimmed mean 2.7 Most are components coming off except regulated prices like education, alcohol and tobacco, and health, which will fall in due course given they are indexed to the headline benchmark, which has crashed. It’s over.
Decent output levels are keeping iron ore supported for now. There’s nothing good happening property. Compared to December, China’s on-budget fiscal revenue and off-budget land sales revenue both weakened meaningfully in January-February, more significant than the deceleration in government spending growth. Our proprietary “augmented fiscal deficit” (AFD) metric widened slightly in February vs. December on
CBA’s excellent economics team has provided a comprehensive analysis of the federal budget. Below are key extracts broken down by theme. Overview: In the near term, the key economic and fiscal aggregates in the 2025-26 Budget are largely unchanged from the last official update in December, and broadly in line with our own forecasts. The
DXY faded a little AUD lifted a little. Lead boots are at a standstill. Gold pausing. Trump lunacy has overtaken oil as he smashes Venezuela and Iran while promising cheaper petrol. Copper is insane. This is bad for everybody except Goldman Sachs. Big miners sag on. EM yawn. Junk yawn. Yields eased. Stocks firmed. I
Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers’ has released a hopeful new budget based upon some rosy assumptions. The headline numbers are realistic, but the wage price index is not going to re-accelerate unless unemployment falls more than forecast amid ongoing mass immigration of cheap Indian workers. This is a problem for revenue, especially with the mooted tax
Could it be that sense will finally prevail? ABC. Gas giants would be forced to supply more energy to the domestic energy market under gas reservation plans that could be adopted by both sides of politics in an election shootout over how best to secure more energy and drive down prices. In moves that would
A bit of Fedspeak overnight was overshadowed by the Clown Show in the White House overnight as markets remain somewhat hesitant as the April 2 deadline for Trump’s Tariff Tirade beckons. European shares were able to rebound firmly while Wall Street gave up some late gains to finish slightly higher. The USD pulled back ever
The Albanese government’s first budget, released in October 2022, forecasts net overseas migration of 470,000 over its first two financial years (2022-23 and 2023-24). They delivered more than double this number, with 1,060,000 net migrants arriving over nine quarters to Q3 2024. The May 2024 federal budget forecast net overseas migration of 260,000 for this
Roy Morgan Research has released polling, taken before Tuesday’s federal budget, showing that Labor (53%) has gained a strong lead over the Coalition (47%) on a two-party preferred basis. “If a Federal Election were held now, the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP”, Roy Morgan reported. Roy Morgan’s
Labor handed down the ultimate pre-election pork-barreling budget, promising workers two more rounds of tax cuts and increasing expenditure in what will be the largest budget deficit since the pandemic. Major announcements included: a $17.1 billion package of income tax cuts (over five years); an $8.4 billion boost to Medicare; a $1.8 billion extension of
Not much action across Asian stock markets although offshore Chinese markets are feeling the pinch while mainland shares are unchanged as are the satellite Australian local stocks which have tread water again. The USD is also largely unchanged against the major currency pairs while the Australian dollar is failing to get back above the 63
