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Website improvements

Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The

Latest posts

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Wind projects drought threatens energy transition

Over the past decade, taxpayers have heavily subsidised virtually every large-scale renewable project undertaken in Australia. To meet the federal government’s 82% renewable energy target (RET), Australia must retire most of its current coal fleet and replace it with about 6–7 GW of new large-scale renewable generation annually, along with several gigawatts of storage. However,

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Podcast: The Financial Mess Behind AI Boom’s Problem Children

In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, digs into the financial mess behind AI’s problem children — from mounting debt and soaring infrastructure costs to delayed data centres and projects being put on hold. We examine what the troubles at companies like CoreWeave and NEXTDC reveal about the risks beneath the

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Iron ore fruitcakes unite!

I almost admire Andrew Forrest today. Andrew Forrest wants diesel gone from Fortescue’s Pilbara mines by 2028, as the mining magnate lashed US President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin for pushing up the cost of living for Australians. Speaking at Fortescue’s annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday, Dr Forrest said both Australia’s mining industry and

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The simple solution to Australia’s rental crisis

ABC 7.30 Report ran a segment on how Australia’s rental crisis is forcing tenants into group accommodation and other sub-optimal living arrangements to save on costs. “Real estate agents say these tight markets are pushing some renters beyond the city limits or into new living arrangements”, reporters Nicole Hegarty and Courtney Bembridge said. “The suburbs

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Consumers shrug off RBA

Westpac’s credit card tracker is powering.  The Westpac–DataX Card Tracker Index* has edged down slightly since late September, slipping 0.9pts to 160.6 in the week ended October 17. Despite this, growth in activity continues to track a robust pace with quarterly momentum running at close to 2%qtr and annual growth at 6%yr. Some of this

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Albo targets the wrong immigration trade deal

In May 2023, the Albanese government announced changes to Australia’s Working Holiday Maker (WHM) Program and the UK’s Youth Mobility Scheme as part of the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement (AUKFTA). Below are the specific changes: From 1 July 2023, UK passport holders will be able to apply for a Working Holiday visa between the ages

4

Kevin passes the Warshach test

But not the central banker’s test. DXY is down as the FOMC refused to hike into face-ripping inflation. AUD popped. There’s a short squeeze risk here for all those nervous fundies. The twins remain in doom mode. Growth is back. EM is stepping back from the brink. Junk toys with the end of the war.

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War delivers coal boom

Latest war headlines. Netanyahu 58 seats. Eisenkot 48 seats. Arab parties 19 seats. First to 61 wins. Eisenkot stii favourite. Iran tells Mecca, US attack will destroy them. Trump says US attack post-midterms is on the table. Brent and cracks bounced. Physical markets are still tight. LNG to the moon. It would make sense for

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Australia’s inflation is getting worse, despite rate hikes

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has hiked the official cash rate four times this year to a 15-year high of 4.60%. As a result, Australia now has the second-highest official policy rate in the advanced world, behind Iceland. Despite the RBA’s aggressive rate hikes, Australia’s inflation problem continues to worsen. On Wednesday, the Australian

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Strong inflation sets course for RBA to hike next week

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2026. The key movements are illustrated below: Headline CPI rose by 4.3% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 4.0% in the 12 months to August. Housing was the largest contributor to annual inflation in September, rising by

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Buying the Madman

TME on the crash under the boom. The great volatility disconnect Something unusual is happening beneath the surface of equities. Defensive sectors are showing bubble-like behavior, US earnings moves keep exceeding what options price in, and Europe is paying up for volatility that rarely materializes. Meanwhile, the semiconductor washout is creating interesting upside opportunities, while

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Iron ore “nasty”

Ferrous prices are in free fall, led by hot-rolled coil, a bad sign for hot metal output. Iron ore is at new two-year lows. But not quite if you normalise freight rates. Mid-October CISA data was soft again. Even so, inventories rose. Steel output is very shitty. Deteriorating profitability among Chinese steelmakers has further weighed

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Shorts stampede Australian dollar

DXY looks ready for more bounce. That said, with France calming down, EUR could do it instead. The twins have death-crossed. As soon as oil eases, the growth party resumes. Not so obvious for EM. But screamingly so for junk. As duration rallies. Stocks to the moon! It’s not exactly complex. What is a little

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Israel votes on Iran’s future

War headlines today. Israel votes. More tankers on fire. It was a better day for Brent and cracks. LNG too. ANZ sees China wading back into oil. As Middle Eastern (ME) supply recovers, China’s refinery demand and inventory rebuild will again be key to absorbing additional barrels. Recent data suggest they are snapping up the

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Australia closes door on non-genuine international students

Over the past two years, the Albanese government has increased the cost, evidentiary burden, and scrutiny of student visas to stem the flow of non-genuine students. Measures introduced include: Tougher English-language requirements: From March 2024, the minimum English proficiency standard for student visas increased from an IELTS equivalent 5.5 to 6.0. Major increase in student

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Join me tonight on DFA Live with Martin North

Tonight I’ll appear on DFA Live with Martin North from 8.00pm AEST, where we will dive into the dramatic falls in home prices and whether this signals a broader malaise in Australia’s economy. If so, what can be done about it, and how should households prepare for a potential recession? You can ask a question

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Is it time for a payroll tax on bank jobs outsourced overseas?

National Australia Bank (NAB) recently announced plans to cut 2,500 jobs by mid-2027, including 1,500 by the end of this year. However, NAB has now revealed it plans to abolish 3,200 jobs before Christmas, although it will invite some displaced staff to apply for new jobs through a process known as ‘spill-and-fill’. A senior NAB manager has likened

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AI jobs panic begins

News is leading the charge, oddly. Design graduate Harriet Lindsay has spent nearly a year emailing, calling and applying – but she still can’t land a job after spending $25,000 to obtain her UTS degree. After contacting about 200 design firms across Australia, the 23-year-old from Sydney’s Northern Beaches is starting to wonder whether she

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Victorian Labor faces electoral annihilation

If the latest opinion polls are accurate, the Victorian Labor government faces a crushing defeat at November’s state election. The latest Newspoll reported by The Australian suggests Victoria’s political landscape has shifted dramatically ahead of the 28 November election, with the Coalition holding a commanding lead over Labor. Labor’s primary vote has fallen 4 points

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Godzilla El Nino largest in a century

The Godzilla El Nino just keeps growing. BOM animation. There’s no stopping it. Here are the strongest El Niños on record compared to today. UBS pulls no punches. Strongest El Niño in more than 75 years According to the expert, the current El Niño is unequivocally the strongest observed since modern sea surface temperature monitoring

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Australia’s “worst ever” housing crash beckons

Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye has posted the following chart on X (Twitter) showing that the current “crash” in Australian dwelling values is “officially the worst ever”: “Current Aussie housing crash is the worst ever recorded since 1980 – national capital city prices are currently falling at a 16% annualised pace based on the last three