Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Last week’s April labour force report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the nation’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5%, its highest level since November 2021 and well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) forecasts. Younger Australians were hit especially hard, with youth unemployment rising to over 11%: As Alex Joiner from
Up she goes. TME with the charts. The Melt-Up Machine Tech keeps trading like a self-reinforcing melt-up machine. Every small dip gets mechanically bought, flows keep chasing AI and semis, and upside positioning continues feeding on itself despite already crowded large-cap tech exposure. Upside call skew across large-cap tech is now reaching meme-mania style extremes,
Australians are experiencing the perverse situation whereby they have seen the sharpest decline in real wages in living memory, a trend not forecast to improve in the forward estimates. Yet, despite the purchasing power of their wages falling, they are paying increasing amounts of personal income taxes due to bracket creep. In short, the amount
This month’s federal budget announced that the capital gains tax (CGT) regime would return to the pre-1999 indexation method. The change was marketed by the government as a way to improve tax efficiency and equity, as well as boost budget revenue. The fact sheet accompanying the change states the following: Returning to indexation based on
Why, in a matter of only six months, has Alan Kohler performed a complete 180-degree flip on the housing market and the impact of historically high net overseas migration? Let me explain. In November 2025, Alan Kohler presented an excellent explainer video for the ABC, arguing that the surge in net overseas migration from the
A draft framework for the reservation system released by the government on Monday confirms it will require producers to sell the equivalent of 20% of their LNG exports into the local market. [Madeleine King] said there were ways to achieve that goal without breaching the contracts struck with customers in Japan, South Korea, China and
Victoria has legislated a target to source 95% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2035. This is one of the most ambitious renewable energy targets in Australia and globally, designed to accelerate the state’s transition away from cheap brown coal and toward cleaner energy sources, such as wind, solar, and storage. The target is
These numbers are the latest but are a week old. The US continues to lead the global inventory drawdown, delivering the highest prices to itself. Europe is in a lot more trouble with a much smaller stock. Japan is OK for now, but not for long. Singapore is doing OK. It is similar in
The American Madman has no idea what he is doing to the Gulf, but he is masterful at manipulating markets for his mates! The latest Iranian position has not changed at all. Ending the war on all fronts, especially Lebanon. Lifting the US blockade and piracy. Transit of civilian ships through the Strait of Hormuz
With data from six of the major pollsters now under our belt, we can begin to assess how the budget was received through the lens of where Australians are dedicating their primary votes. Looking at the available data so far, the news for the Albanese government is not fantastic. On an average basis across polling
Australian lenders have already tightened borrowing capacity for property investors through changes to how they assess after‑tax cashflow and serviceability following the 2026 budget’s negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) reforms. Because losses on established properties purchased after budget night can no longer be deducted against wages, lenders now model lower after‑tax income for
Before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) commenced its monetary hiking cycle in February, Sydney’s housing market was experiencing the nation’s worst affordability. At the end of 2025, Cotality reported that Sydney’s dwelling price-to-income ratio was 10.0, well above the capital city average of 8.8: The percentage of median household income required to service the
As yields break out, stocks are not over-owned. Perhaps not that surprising given the oil problem. Surprisingly restrained Despite stocks hovering near all-time highs, positioning data remains surprisingly restrained. Hedge funds are still underexposed, systematic positioning is far from stretched, and bearish sentiment remains elevated in what may be the most unloved rally in years.
Over the years, I have written a plethora of articles on MB, warning that Australia is stuck in a low-productivity trap driven by four main factors: Poor private business investment, combined with excessive low-skilled migration, has shallowed the nation’s capital base. Expensive energy costs (gas and electricity prices) have deindustrialised the nation, resulting in Australia’s manufacturing
It’s been obvious that the ferrous market has been levitating for months. Now it follows the Chinese seasonal patterns. Steel inventorites are still up solidly on last year. Ominously, steel port inventories are flattening out. Steel demand sucks. Steel supply is worse as exports come off. We are just waiting for Simandou to kill this
Following a strategic review of the student visa program in 2011 (the “Knight Review”), the Gillard Labor government significantly enhanced employment rights for graduate (485) visas in 2013. In particular, 485 visa holders are not required to meet skills shortage requirements and may stay in Australia for two to four years after finishing their studies,
So, the Teals are going to form a political party. Hopefully, they will prioritise gas. From Gas Cartel HQ. To many major-party politicians (not to mention the gas industry and those who rely on it), this type of policy is anathema: a knee-jerk, populist reaction to the rhythms of an orderly investment cycle that will,
This month’s federal budget upgraded the forecasts for net overseas migration (NOM) by 35,000 this financial year and by 20,000 in the next financial year, compared with December’s MYEFO and last year’s budget. The upgrade was par for the course for recent federal budgets, which have repeatedly underestimated NOM: Chart from Tarric Brooker (Avid Commentator)
In flying, the most elastic demand is in Asia, then Europe, LATAM, with the US barely affected despite having the largest price rises. For trucking, US commercial vehicles are down hard year on year, but it is not clear whether it is due to diesel prices. Everybody else looks neck and neck, and the demand
Albert Edwards at Societe Generale: The latest BoJ meeting saw a hawkish hold, with even more dissenters voting for a rate rise. The best way to gauge just how much the BoJ has lost the confidence of investors this year is the 10- 2y curve, which has become alarmingly detached from the other major markets.
Since late last year, the U.S. labour market has been experiencing a strange set of circumstances: rolling annual job growth has slowed to levels consistent with the immediate aftermath of a recession, yet the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable for almost 2 years, hovering around 4.3%. In the last 12 months of data, the
The one clear message from a weekend of propaganda frenzy is the American Madman’s desperation. So many “deals” are floating about that it is nearly impossible to keep pace. The best estimate I can find is at Dropsite: The official said that Tehran put forward a set of terms as a framework for a deal,
Earlier this month, I wrote an article entitled “Australian house prices poised for largest decline in 40 years”, explaining why the housing market is facing a generational decline. My analysis has received support from Morgan Stanley, which warns that the 2026 budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) could trigger a 10% decline
A couple of weeks ago, a mate with whom I once worked and now works for the BBC beamed me a copy of a letter he had sent to the new BBC chief, Matt Brittin, who took up his role in the past week. Dear Mr Brittin, Welcome to the BBC, and please forgive me
Australia’s housing market is now in full correction mode according to Cotality’s dwelling values index, with values falling at the aggregate 5-city level, driven by sharp declines in Sydney and Melbourne. The latest auction results from Cotality suggest that the price correction will gather steam, with only 50.4% of auctions held last weekend selling, the
