Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Without an increase in output (GDP) per hour worked (i.e., labour productivity), Australia’s economy cannot grow at a robust pace without causing inflation. Australian living standards also stagnate. I outlined why in my recent expert testimony to the Senate Committee on Productivity. You can read my opening statement here and watch my testimony here. Australia’s
Earlier this year, Cotality published the following chart showing the biggest national declines in dwelling values over the past 40 years. According to Cotality, the largest decline was in 2017-19, when values fell by 8.2% amid credit tightening, fears over changes to negative gearing, and the banking royal commission. Across the five largest capital city
Some argue that Chinese COâ‚‚ emissions are already falling. The Global Carbon Budget margin of error for 2025 allows for a fall. The second derivative trend is obvious. Emissions intensity is collapsing and will likely roll over in the next year or two because China’s production of renewables, gas, and nuclear remains vast. The IEA
In September 2024, Matt Thistlethwaite, the federal assistant minister for immigration, told the Sydney Institute that “for many decades Australia hasn’t had a migration plan” and that “Australia’s migration policies have lacked direction and purpose”. “Migration’s been unresponsive to Australia’s needs”, Thistlethwaite said. “It has provided marginal economic benefit and hasn’t enhanced labour productivity. It
Accounting firm EY has released its annual State Budget Monitor, which forecasts that state debt will continue to rise, led by Victoria. EY attributes part of the blow-out in debt to rising public servant wage costs, with growth in the number of public servants (29%) more than doubling the growth in the population (14%): “Employee
Sometimes it’s good when the international press comes calling on an Australian issue. Sometimes it’s bad. Like Bloomberg today. Once considered too remote and expensive, Beetaloo has gained significance as Australia faces looming east-coast gas shortages. Developers estimate the resource could be worth more than US$6 trillion at current Asian LNG prices. Tamboran ultimately targets
Pilbara strikes, CMRG shanangins, and a little bounce in steel are giving the ferrous complex a meek relief rally. The newsflow remains grim as roaches crawl across the market. A Reuters article says creditor pressure on Radiant World has increased sharply, with Singapore filings showing 21 creditors now have registered claims over the iron-ore trader’s
Graduate (485) visas have been the second-fastest-growing category of temporary visas since Labor came to office in mid-2022. According to the Department of Home Affairs, the number of graduate visas on issue ballooned by 172,000 between Q2 2022 and Q2 2026, an increase of 175%. Pauline Hanson has demanded that all secondary applicants on student
TME sees the chase back on. Convexity Is Cheap Convexity remains cheap, but the surface is sending an interesting message. Outright SPX vol is still depressed, even as upside calls are increasingly bid relative to puts and downside protection has collapsed. That leaves attractive asymmetry on both sides: cheap outright vol for upside exposure, call
Trump’s endless war on Iran is now official. As the 60-day deadline for the Memorandum of Understanding is about to expire on Sunday, Pakistan is trying to revive it. Good luck. Despite ceasefires in place in both areas, the Israeli army conducted bombs and demolitions in southern Lebanon and launched its first attack on Gaza
When attempting to assess the performance of the Australian economy, simply looking at headline figures doesn’t really tell you anything about how the average household is faring. After more than two decades of outsized migration relative to the norms seen between the 1980s and early 2000s, the headline rate of GDP growth increasingly bares little
I reported last week how the homebuilding industry is facing a raft of headwinds that will inevitably slow the construction of new homes and further imperil the government’s housing targets. The latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the recent house price correction, coupled with the federal
By Erin Rolandsen Next time, we should make it count. The integration of data across multiple government departments means the Census risks becoming an expensive exercise in confirming what the government already knows. The Person Level Integrated Data Asset (PLIDA), established in 2015, links data from agencies including the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Taxation
The Chinese economy continues its retrograde transformation. This month’s PMIs showed us its nature very clearly. Construction is in structural decline. Services can’t get off the floor. Manufacturing remains the driver. The pattern is confirmed in exports. Targeting export markets. The same pattern is apparent in credit where deflation is still the dominant trend. Housing
Indebted state governments are likely to be the biggest losers from the synchronised housing market correction. RBC Capital Markets warned on Tuesday that there is more than a 50% chance that both NSW and Queensland will lose their AA+ credit ratings before Christmas, owing in part to the collapse in stamp duty revenue. Both states
MB readers have been subjected to daily eye-bashing about how coal is the only way we can possibly power the data centre boom. As an experiment, I looked at how the US is powering its data centres, since Australia seems to lack its own ideas. Starting from the top, gas and renewables dominate projected grid
The nation’s biggest mortgage lender, CBA, has released its annual results, and the investor presentation contains interesting information on home lending. First, home loan applications have fallen significantly since the May federal budget, when the government changed negative gearing and capital gains tax. CBA home loan applications are currently tracking 17% below the same time
That cackling sound you can hear is Dan Andrews. After the former premier took over as chair at the youth mental health service, Orygen, which he funded when he was premier, things have fallen apart. He oversaw the separation of Orygen from the Parkville Youth Mental Health and Wellbeing Service, which has now been… …beset
Following on from Tuesday’s article on the massive 336‑MW data centre campus planned for Melbourne, which would operate with dozens of diesel generators, it is worth examining the global leader in data centres – the United States – to see what the future may hold. Tom’s Hardware published an alarming report on a new Amazon
TME is following the gold bump. Gold is back Gold has come roaring back, and the signals we have been watching are now falling into place. GLD just posted its best week since the January melt-up, ETF demand is returning and CTAs have flipped back long. With upside skew now bid and gold vol finally
Several Trump cyphers in Pakistan and Qatar tried and failed to TACO overnight as they bragged about imminent peace. Oil held up anyway. Dated Brent is looking ominous. The reality on the ground cannot be hidden. The US and Iran now have irreconcilable demands and a double blockade of Hormuz. U.S. forces fired on a
In the realm of politics, the role of the political staffer in the path to being a career politician is an often overlooked one. Where once the path to Australian Parliament or Capitol Hill in Washington far more frequently wound its way through military service, business ownership or blue-collar employment, it is increasingly one defined
Australian tenants have experienced the most severe rental cost inflation in living memory. According to Cotality, national advertised rents have increased by more than 50% since the end of 2019, adding more than $12,500 to the annual cost of renting for the typical tenant: Advertised rents nationally grew by 5.9% in the year to July
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unanimously voted to keep the official cash rate on hold at 4.35% at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. The positive news for mortgage holders is that there has been almost full passthrough of this year’s previous three rate hikes, so there’s no further pain. The RBA’s commentary accompanying
Is convincing a coal junkie even possible? Not on yesterday’s evidence. Confronted with debunked arguments left and right against his coal attachment, LVO yesterday pivoted to India, the old chestnut. Economically, India is currently sitting about where China was at the turn of the century. As illustrated below, if you slide India left three by
