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Website improvements

Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The

Latest posts

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How Australia replaced productivity growth with immigration

Defenders of mass migration often argue that Australia’s ‘skilled’ immigration system boosts the nation’s productivity because migrants are more skilled than locals and earn higher incomes. However, when you examine the macroeconomic data, you quickly discover that Australia’s labour productivity growth has collapsed alongside the strong rise in immigration, which contradicts their claims. ‘Big Australia’

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Stock shock builds

TME smooths ruffled feathers.Ā  Where is the FOMO? For markets sitting not far from the highs, the flow picture is surprisingly cautious. Risk demand is back to neutral, equity sentiment has turned negative, US fund inflows have collapsed, ETF flows are weak and hedge funds are running unusually low exposure. In other words, there isn’t

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A fresh start for immigration policy

Australia needs a fresh start for its immigration programs. Back when Australia recruited immigrants mainly from developed countries, the emphasis was on attracting the best people to come live in Australia. A few lemons might slip through, but that was a price worth paying. Australia was the supplicant in the immigration market. Now that Australia

3

The Warshach test

The US CPI was higher than expected on Friday night. It exhibited four problems. First, and most obviously, headline CPI was juiced by oil and products. Second, the effect already appears to be trickling down into core goods, which include food and El NiƱo ahead. Third, core services bounced, perhaps in response to the same

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Australia’s democracy is under attack

Last week, we witnessed an all-out attack on democracy from the federal government and the bureaucracy. We learned that the secretaries’ board, which comprises all federal department heads, is pushing for new rules to stop the sharing of public testimony on social media because it could expose officials to ridicule, hostility, or abuse. The board’s

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The iron ore crash is here

The iron crash is here as the bizarre rally in steel prices falters. It’s a wonder it has taken this long as steel production collapses. Steel inventories are still high. As steel demand is also sinking, along with exports. Prices tumbled last week It is much worse when you factor in shipping costs. FOB prices

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China pivots to Trump regime change

War headlines from over the weekend. Saudi shuts Yanbu after Iraqi-based drone attack. 6 weeks for repair? Multiple ships on both sides bombed in Hormuz. US limits air defence of Hormuz ships as night is no longer “safe”. Houthis shut Bab al-Mandeb to Saudi ships. Trump demands Ukraine stop bombing Russian diesel refineries. Iran/Gulf states

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How far could house prices fall?

According to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, home values across the five major capital city markets have declined by 5.2% from their 10 April 2026 peak. The biggest decline in 40 years of records, according to Cotality, was 8.6%, recorded between October 2017 and May 2019. At the current pace of decline, which is 4.0%,

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Why Australians need to question their Superannuation System: The 10 Reasons it’s Not Fit for Purpose

By Deep T, editing Gunnamatta A critical examination of a $4.4 trillion compulsory savings experiment   Australia has a superannuation system which is often held up as a global model.Ā  In one key way it certainly is — it is a compulsory savings scheme that has amassed $4.4 trillion in assets at market value as

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Weekend reading and MB media appearances

International Reading: Trump, Who Calls Medicare for All Too Expensive, Vows $5,000 to Every US Adult—If GOP Wins Midterms – Common Dreams Global oil hits $107 per barrel and bond yields surge – CNN Vance appears to walk back Trump’s offer of $5,000 ā€˜dividend’ if Republicans win midterms – The Guardian Trump to Make $500

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Australia sacrificed to preserve Santos

Wow, man, we are pwned. Santos-backed Gladstone LNG has secured a reprieve from the Albanese government’s domestic gas reservation scheme, shielding the Queensland project from the full force of the new rules while honouring existing export contracts. The concession is a victory of sorts for Santos and its international partners, which faced the prospect of

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Proof Australians are drowning in taxes

If you want proof that Australia has become a taxing and spending economy, look no further than the latest taxation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), compiled by The Australian Newspaper. The combined tax revenue of the nation’s federal, state and local governments has risen to $893 billion a year, up 61% since

4

Iron ore bloodletting begins

The great Simandou cost-curve shakeout has begun, and it is colliding with the Iran War shock, so it will likely get much worse before it improves. The latest C5 shipping cost for Pilbara Capesize is still $18-19. This puts FOB iron ore spot prices at around $87-88, the lowest in four years. But this time

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New Zealand’s five-year housing correction has further to run

New Zealand’s housing price correction began in November 2021, and since then, prices have declined by more than 15% nationally in nominal terms and by around 30% in real, inflation-adjusted terms. As a result, real New Zealand housing prices are tracking at the same level as March 2018: There are good reasons to believe that

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Gold schmould

Don’t hold gold during VaR shocks. Tattoo it on your forehead. Gold does poorly during VaR shocks that squeeze liquidity out of the market. This is especially true when the shock is triggered by rising interest rates, a double-barreled shotgun blast to the gold bull case. I am a secular gold bull for the same

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Australian businesses fear for their future

Earlier this week, IĀ reported that the latest NAB Business Survey showed conditions were at their lowest level since the pandemic, as profitability collapsed. “The result suggests a growing share of firms are reporting margin squeeze, likely reflecting the combined impact of elevated costs and higher interest rates”, noted Westpac. On Thursday, Roy Morgan released its

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Oil explodes as price suppression fails

War headlines today. Houthis capture the entire Bab al-Mandeb coastline and bomb the Yanbu pipeline in six places. Mwhaha. Nuke alert: Pickaxe Mountain propaganda spreads. Saudis report lowest monthly oil output since 1990. UKMT reports four unknown projectiles hit two tankers in the strait overnight. How reassuring. It was a relatively quiet day on the

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Property chiefs want more migrants to build homes for migrants

Australia’s construction and property leaders warn that the country cannot meet its housing and infrastructure targets without more skilled migrant workers. McNab Group founder Michael McNab says political debate on migration has become sensationalised and disconnected from economic reality. Productivity has fallen so far that Australia now needs more workers to build the same volume

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Podcast: The Biggest Housing Price Fall Is Coming (Feat. Leith Van Onselen)

In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, is joined by Leith van Onselen of MacroBusiness to examine why Australia’s housing downturn could have much further to run. With prices now falling across much of the country and forecasts pointing to a potential double-digit correction, we unpack what’s driving the decline, how