Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Australia’s labour productivity and per capita GDP growth slowed alongside the massive increase in net overseas migration in the mid-2000s. This slowdown in productivity and GDP per capita growth is illustrated clearly in the following chart, which plots labour productivity (GDP per hour worked), per capita GDP, and the immigration rate (i.e., immigration as a
Tonight I will be appearing on DFA Live with Martin North from 8.00pm AEST, where we will discuss everything related to the global energy shock, the housing market, and the economy. The YouTube feed is below. I hope to see you there.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest Financial Stability Review reported a sharp increase in high-loan-to-value-ratio (LVR) mortgage lending to first home buyers following the introduction of the expanded 5% deposit scheme on 1 October 2025. The latest pricing from financial markets suggests that the RBA will raise the official cash rate a further three
Lowest since 1973. Australian consumer confidence in ANZ-Roy Morgan reached its lowest level since records started in 1973. The decline is probably due to the RBA’s decision last week to raise the cash rate to 4.10% as well as the effects of the Middle East crisis on oil prices and the economic outlook. Last week,
Queensland received the largest dollar increase in GST in 2026–27: $2.45 billion, or $423 per person. Even so, Treasurer David Janetzki claims Queensland is being unfairly penalised in the GST carve‑up because it actively develops gas resources. States like Victoria and NSW, which have banned or restricted gas exploration, are treated by the Commonwealth Grants
Trading Trump’s mind is like…stepping in dog shit to shine your shoes. Sure, it might work if scrubbed hard enough, but it doesn’t make much sense. That is the kind of market we are dealing with today: a market that covers investors in shit in bulk. After threatening Armageddon. Trump is now talking about Iran
The Department of Education has released data showing that international university (higher education) commencements rose slightly (+0.7%) in 2025 to a record high of 214,100: This pushed university international enrolment to a record high of 545,000, well above both 2024 and pre-Covid levels. Australia already had the highest concentration of university enrolments in the developed
This would be a worry in normal circumstances. The secret voice of the East Coast gas cartel, the Grattan Institute, is warning that a power shock is imminent. Stand by for a repeat of the effects of the Russia–Ukraine war: higher gas prices, higher electricity prices, higher inflation, a higher cost of living, and more
Australia has run one of the strongest immigration programs in the world this century, resulting in a remarkable 9 million (47%) population increase, as indicated by the ABS Population Clock’s most recent reading. Australia’s population growth has exceeded that of nearly every other developed nation this century, driven by two decades of extreme immigration. Australia’s
I do believe that Australia has finally been dealt a set of circumstances that will, certeris paribus, crash the property market. As LVO noted yesterday, the property market has already turned. Normally, this would send the RBA into a rate-cutting panic and frenzy. Not this time. A recurring theme for the RBA and central banks
Our first March data point. Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index: 47.0 Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m % qr/qr (Feb: 52.4) Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index: 46.6 (Feb: 52.8) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 (Feb: 51.0) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 49.8 (Feb: 49.6) S&P says that Australia’s private sector entered
The Albanese government is underestimating the severity of what might be the biggest oil crisis in history, driven by interruptions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol. While indicating that Australia may use its exports of coal and LNG to secure supplies,
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese put out a tweet that he had spoken with Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, noting that the two had agreed to “support the flow of essentials goods including petroleum oils, such as diesel, and liquified natural gas between our two countries.” While it’s positive that the Prime Minister has
On face value, Australia’s labour market is in a solid position. The nation’s unemployment rate remained at a historically low 4.3% in February 2026, well below the decade average of 4.9%: Australia’s job advertisements and job vacancies are also tracking slightly above pre-pandemic levels: However, there are economic storm clouds on the horizon in the
Lord Charlton is on the hustings again today, and wouldn’t you know it, rather than doing the work of securing global fuel supplies, he’s busy blame-shifting the imminent Australian catastrophe on…you. “I think the government acted quickly. We acted quickly, upon coming to government four years ago when Chris Bowen made the decision to locate our
In 2024, former federal Treasury official Stephen Anthony warned that Victoria may need a federal “bailout” due to increasing state debt. The federal government has already effectively moved to bail Victoria out. In 2024-25, Victoria’s GST allocation was increased by $3.8 billion, whereas NSW lost $188 million. NSW Premier Chris Minns responded by labelling Victoria
Late last year, Cotality released its housing affordability report, which recorded the poorest rental affordability on record, with the median tenant household required to pay a record 33.4% of their incomes to service rent: The decline in rental affordability was driven by the 47% increase in advertised rents since the end of 2019, which has
Where tech goes…goes the market… Gamma is free to exaggerate price falls. Energy-poor Europe is leading the way into the pit but is getting pretty oversold here. Oil is in troubled waters. Got it, vol down. Not it, vol up. Prepare for depressflation. Stagflation doesn’t cover this shock. This is 20% oil scarcity. It will
Goldman Sachs analyst Joseph Briggs recently contended that artificial intelligence could potentially automate tasks that account for 25% of all work hours in the US and 6% to 7% of all jobs. He notes that the prospect of job losses on such a scale has led to fears that AI will replace humans in the
I argued last week that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) current tightening cycle mirrors the 2007–08 hikes before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), when the RBA kept hiking even as the US subprime crisis was unfolding. In that earlier episode, the RBA raised rates by 1.0% in the seven months before the GFC,
Yes, the impossible has happened. Power prices may drop more than 10 per cent for households across NSW, South Australia and south-east Queensland under a draft regulator’s ruling, although the final decision partly depends on how the turmoil in global energy markets is felt here. However, the end to government subsidies on electricity bills at
It appears, finally, that MB is now running Australia’s response to the Iran War. Having lied to the Australian people for three weeks, the Cabinet pivoted over the weekend, illustrating that it has been reading and is starting to catch up. First, Australia has joined a broadening coalition of navies headed to the Strait of
At 10:44AM (Australia Eastern Daylight Time) on Sunday, U.S. President Trump made the boldest and most dangerous threat of the war against Iran so far: that if the Iranians did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours of that “exact point in time”, the U.S. would start destroying Iranian power plants, “STARTING WITH
In last weekend’s market wrap, leading Sydney auctioneer Tom Panos declared that the “market has changed”, noting that “buyer depth is diminishing” and that “fear is gripping the market” amid rate rises and inflation. Last weekend’s final auction clearance rates supported this assessment, with Sydney’s and Melbourne’s final average March clearance rates falling to their
Energy ASIA AMERICAS EUROPE AUSTRALIA GLOBAL MACROÂ …AND FURTHERMORE…
