Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The latest dwelling completions data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that only 173,400 homes were built in the year to March 2026, 66,600 (28%) fewer than the 240,000 annual run rate required to meet the National Housing Accord’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years. Over the first 21 months
The private credit market, which has grown to around $200 billion in assets, has become a key lender to developers as traditional banks pull back from construction lending due to tightening risk appetites. However, the recent collapse of property developer Bathla Group has thrown the sector into disarray. Bathla Group entered voluntary administration in late
In this week’s podcast, we’re exploring how direct indexing can give investors more control over their portfolios — allowing you to choose the companies you own, manage your exposure to different themes, and tailor your investments around your own goals and preferences. We unpack what makes direct indexing different from traditional funds and how greater
The legend that is Andrew Boak at Goldman today deconstructs the screech of Bullockhawk. The 2023 Review of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) placed a renewed emphasis on improving how the Bank communicates its policy strategy and decisions. In this note, we employ several natural language processing (NLP) methodologies – specifically dictionary-based parsing, an
Cotality’s September housing market results are out: the nation’s rental market saw a solid rise in the vacancy rate to 2%, up from the record low of 1.5% recorded in February 2026 and the highest level since January 2025. The monthly pace of rental growth eased to 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms, the smallest monthly
Here’s the animation of the fattening lava tongue poking from South America. The key BOM index is still getting worse. In historical context. Effects are starting to appear. India’s monsoon just collapsed. A powerful El Niño has left India with its weakest monsoon in more than a decade, threatening crops and raising food-price risks. Rainfall during
Changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax in the federal budget have sharply reduced investor credit growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) credit aggregates data for August, illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, show that investor housing credit growth decelerated sharply to 0.32%, down from the recent peak of 0.95% in
DXY is perched at the breakout line. EUR is through the breakdown line. AUD is in free fall; North Asia is some kind of parachute. Oil and gold look like a disinflation pair. Metals are a little toppy. Miners are trying to bottom. EM stocks don’t DXY. Junk is apoplectic. Or the global long end,
War headlines today. Three attacks on Hormuz ships overnight. Houthis rain missiles on Saudi oil facilities. Deal talks continue. The overnight price of Brent futures was steady at $98. Diesel cracks jumped 4% after weak US inventory data, which is quickly dragging petrol down as well. Oil markets are sending mixed signals. Goldman has gone
In the latest Intergenerational Report from the Albanese government, a series of assumptions are, to put it politely, “overly optimistic”. Chief among them is the baseline forecast that Australia’s productivity growth will average 1.2% per year, slightly below the 20-year average before 2020. Looking at the chart above, the assumption of productivity growing at 1.2%
Just when you thought that Australia’s housing correction couldn’t get worse, Cotality has revised its dwelling values index downward, meaning that values have fallen more sharply than expected. Let me explain. Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, which tracks home values across the five major capital city markets, has recorded a 3.8% quarterly decline at the
In a classic scheduling error, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the August quarter consumer price inflation (CPI) report a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the official cash rate by 0.25%. Tuesday’s media release from the RBA accompanying its 0.25% rate hike noted that “inflation remains elevated and some of
Australia ranks near the top in the world for household wealth. According to the UBS Global Wealth Report 2026, Australia had the third-highest median household wealth in the world, after Luxembourg and Belgium. However, real estate makes up the majority of Australia’s household wealth, unlike most countries: Australian housing values have increased relentlessly over the
Remember the days when this mattered? China unveiled mortgage subsidies and changes to bank lending policies, stepping up efforts to support an economy losing momentum. The country will subsidize interest payments for homebuyers on some cheaper homes nationwide. First-home buyers will get subsidies worth an annualized rate of 1 percentage point of the mortgage principal
TME with the great mystery. Refusing to break Rates keep screaming, but stocks keep refusing to break. Semis have been hit hard, yet earnings and AI capex remain firmly intact. The broader equity market is showing similar resilience, with earnings doing much more of the heavy lifting than price alone suggests. Meanwhile, the rates shock
Treasurer “Spin” Jim Chalmers defended the federal government’s inflation record ahead of Tuesday’s 0.25% rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Chalmers insisted at a press conference with Finance Minister Katy Gallagher on Monday that the war in the Middle East, not government spending, was driving inflation. “We have an inflation challenge in
DXY is stalling at resistance, but EUR will push it through all things equal. AUD was hammered again. It is starting to get stretched versus the Chinese mothership but can go lower still if it feels the urge. The twins are falling in tandem. Nibble on gold here? No growth problem in metals. Big miners
War headlines today. The US and Iran are talking through Qatar. Iran bombs two ships in Hormuz, including one Kuwaiti VLCC. Yanbu resumes half of its export capacity. Trump mulls lifting Russian sanctions. IEA mulls release of 40mb from strategic reserve. Note, nobody else is offering. The net result was a big day of oil
Contained within the 352 pages of the latest ‘Intergenerational Report’ (IGR) from the Albanese government is a series of forecasts on how Treasury and the Albanese government believe the next 40 years will play out. More than a few are overly optimistic, but few are as poorly grounded in reality as the cost projections for
Australia’s housing market is facing its biggest decline in more than 40 years, with values already down by 5.9% since April across the five major capitals. Tuesday’s 25 bp rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took the official cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.60% and will add around $120 per
As widely expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unanimously lifted the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25% at today’s monetary policy meeting, taking the cash rate to 4.60%—a 15-year high. The RBA media release was hawkish and noted the following: “Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising.
Victoria is commonly regarded as Australia’s most poorly managed state, with massive debt, soaring crime, endemic corruption and waste in infrastructure projects, potholed roads, degrading public services, and the mainland’s high unemployment rate. A new comparative analysis by economist and former fund manager Maurice O’Shannassy has also ranked Victoria the most mismanaged state in the
Energy tsar, Chris Bowen, is right. Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen has unleashed a mammoth attack against Australia’s ageing coal-fired power plants, warning their frequent unplanned outages are making electricity bills dearer as he prepares to lead pre-COP talks in the Pacific. Mr Bowen, who has travelled to Saudi Arabia and India in
South East Queensland (SEQ) is now leading Australia’s house price downturn. According to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, home values in Brisbane (including the Gold Coast) have declined by 1.5% over the past month, the sharpest decline among the major capital city areas: Brisbane’s auction clearance rate is also the weakest among the three largest
Wall-to-wall panic over interest rates today as the RBA readies another hike. News. AFR. The Oz. The Age. SMH. Herald Sun. Buy bonds, anyone? Reasons to do so: The RBA tightening has front-run global central banks. Aussie growth is falling away faster, led by house prices shitting the bed. Jobs market too. AI counter-revolution exploding
