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International Reading: Susie Wiles at center of ‘screaming’ panic inside Trump’s White House as Iran war sends gas soaring – Daily Mail Documents Reveal a Web of Financial Ties Between Trump Officials and the Industries They Help Regulate – Pro Publica Democrats Are Very Skeptical About Funding For Trump’s Iran War – Huff Post A
New Zealand is slowly recovering from its sharpest economic downturn since the Global Financial Crisis. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, real GDP and income per capita have fallen sharply from their recent peak: New Zealand’s decline in real GDP per capita is among the sharpest in the advanced world: New Zealand’s
Wednesday’s national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that government spending continued to be a key driver of GDP growth in 2025, continuing the strong growth experienced since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is a key driver of the growth in public spending, alongside
Charts from TME. So far, oil is manageable. But oil volatility is through the roof. Europe does not like it. Investor enthusiasm for Europe could worsen. Ouch. EM bust. ROW equity stress is intense. Goldman reckons that, although many investors saw the news as somewhat misleading, markets recovered yesterday thanks to headlines indicating progress in
This week, I lambasted the Australian National University’s (ANU) Jill Sheppard for stating that donations and lobbying from big business on immigration are “actually good” because they sway politicians to keep immigration high against the wishes of Australian voters, who overwhelmingly want lower immigration: I argued that Sheppard’s testimony effectively said, “Screw what voters actually want. They don’t
The ferrous market is doing its usual seasonal thing, but there is not much good news beneath the surface. China is imposing stricter regulations on BHP. China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) told several traders this week to buy fewer seaborne cargoes of BHP’s flagship products: Mac fines, Newman fines and Newman lumps, according to two
The Victorian Government is actively seeking data centre investment. Victorian Economic Growth Minister Danny Pearson has become one of the most active political figures in Australia when it comes to courting data centre investment, and his approach combines regulatory positioning, direct industry engagement, and targeted government spending. Danny Pearson has: Promised light‑touch regulation. Highlighted rapid
Asian LNG prices have held at the recent spike highs, but they will go much higher very soon if the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen. So far, good weather and perhaps the threat of gas reservation have left Aussie gas prices at their lowest in years. The weather is definitely playing a role, with mild
DXY is still looming as the comeback kid amid World War Trump. The AUD finally buckled, but it has been buoyant during Asian hours as unhedged Aussie fundies buy hedges for their dying Mag7 bets. North is trying to stabilise. Good luck with that amid the Dire Straits. Gold is still liquidating, suggesting margin calls
In recent years, a series of reports from the Canadian government, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies have documented agents of the Indian government engaging in unsavoury acts on Canadian soil. According to an October 2024 report from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP): “An extraordinary situation is compelling us to speak about what we have
The number of temporary migrants in Australia (excluding visitors) has expanded to record levels under the Albanese government. When the Albanese government arrived in office in mid-2022, there were 1,640,000 temporary migrants (excluding visitors) in Australia. Over the 2025 calendar year, there were 2,460,000 temporary migrants (excluding visitors) in Australia, excluding visitors: The surge in
Brisbane dwelling values have soared by 116% since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, according to PropTrack. As a result, Brisbane is now the nation’s second most expensive housing market after Sydney, with a median dwelling value of $1,046,000 as of February 28, 2026, and a median house price of $1,203,000: According
Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers is convening a confidential roundtable with leading market economists in Canberra to discuss potential economic reforms ahead of the May federal budget. Participants will include economists from the four major banks, and Chalmers has encouraged them to propose unconventional or “left-field” policy ideas beyond those currently considered by Treasury. Discussions are
Of Australia’s main capital cities, Melbourne is the most economically challenged. The latest labour force data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), presented below by CBA, shows that Victoria has recorded the steepest rise in unemployment in the nation: Victoria’s unemployment rate of 4.5% is also the highest in the nation, tracking 0.4% above
The market does enjoy watching a good war. But this is still not all clear, in my book. This is especially true now that the Straits are closed. Goldman reckons due to the collapse of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, damage to energy infrastructure, and storage congestion that caused Iraq to reduce oil
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday reported a 0.9% increase in public sector demand in the December quarter, which was estimated to contribute 0.3 percentage points to GDP for the quarter. Public demand, which comprises all federal, state and local government spending and investment, totalled $198 billion in the three months to December.
Victoria continues to swing to One Nation. According to a RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll cited in the AFR, One Nation, which was not a choice in the previous survey conducted in December, is at 24%. Labour is down 6 to 25%, the Coalition is down 12 to 28%, and the Greens are up 1 to
Wednesday’s December quarter national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) came in hot, with GDP rising by 2.6% in 2025, above the RBA’s latest forecast in the February Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP): Viewed alongside the higher-than-target inflation and lower-than-forecast unemployment rate, the strong GDP print suggests that the RBA will be
Canadian PM Mark Carney has raised the median IQ in Australia for a few days. The world order is undergoing a rupture and the old norms of the rules-based international order are being erased, and that new system that will emerge ultimately is yet to be built. Global institutions have often been too slow to
The ferrous market does love seasonality, and no sooner has it closed the jaws than it is reopening them. This is part short squeeze, part hope for stimmies, with a dash of Iran thrown in. Futures markets have gotten rather short over the last month, so some corrective medicine was due. Second, hope for stimmies
In a normal post-pandemic year, auction clearance rates in Sydney leap out of the gates as the holiday season hibernation period ends and the property market surges in February and March. In 2022 and 2024, this period had the highest clearance rates of the year. Without an external catalyst, such as movements in interest rates,
Australia is suffering its worst rental crisis in living memory. Advertised rents have soared by around 47% since the end of 2019, according to Cotality, adding around $11,470 to the annual cost of renting for the typical Australian: Australian rental vacancy rates are also tracking at historical lows, at around half pre-pandemic levels: Cotality shows
The Albanese government has signalled that it will scale back the capital gains tax (CGT) discount in the May budget, most likely from 50% to 33% or 25%. It has also signalled that it will limit the number of investment properties that an individual can negatively gear. However, Greens senator Nick McKim says the 50%
Even the missteps of the American Madman can have a positive aspect. China still relies less on foreign energy sources than most large nations, but it has vulnerabilities worth exposing from time to time. This degree of dependence is far lower than that of major European industrial nations like Germany, Italy, and Spain, as well
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released national accounts data for the December quarter, which printed headline real GDP growth of 0.8% over the quarter and 2.6% year-on-year. The result beat expectations of 2.2% growth. Thanks to backward revisions, per capita GDP has now grown for four consecutive quarters, rising by 0.9% in 2025, the
