Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Unlike Australia, New Zealand’s housing affordability continues to improve. And the charts below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro tell the tale. New Zealand dwelling values fell slightly again in July, down 0.4% year-on-year. Values have now fallen for around 4.5 years after peaking in late 2021. In real inflation-adjusted terms, New Zealand dwelling values
The ABS released housing finance commitments on Friday, and the standout number was the flight of investors with a quarterly crash of 10.2%. The total Q2 drop was -5.4%, with owner-occupiers offsetting it somewhat at -1.9%. This is not an unusual magnitude of drop for a housing downcycle. Once we bottom out, I’d expect the
Australia’s immigration policy is worsening labour shortages in the construction sector. As reported by the Grattan Institute, āmigrants are less likely to work in construction than in most other industries. About 32% of Australian workers were foreign-born, but only about 24% of workers in building and construction were born overseas”. “Migrants who arrived in Australia
The headline number of Chinese property sales remains awful. Stimmies to the rescue! MS. China launched a RMB15tn five-year urban-renewal programme covering 115,000 ageing communities and c.500,000 dilapidated homes, while cities increased smaller land supply. Beijing cut non-local buyersā social-security requirement within the Fifth Ring Road to one year and raised the maximum provident-fund loan
Victoria’s state budget is drowning in debt, has the lowest credit rating in the nation, and risks further downgrades. Moody’s recently warned that by the end of the decade, $1 out of every $10 in state revenue will be spent servicing Victoria’s debt. The blowout of Victoria’s debt is despite residents paying the highest taxes
The ferrous complex is enjoying a little bounce. The data is not. CISA output remains down 5.3% YTD. MySteel output is even worse. At least demand popped a bit. But it’s really just inventories which are materially higher YOY. Iron ore port inventories have been flat since May. The big news is the cockroach. The
Investors in renewables say confidence in the Australian energy market is declining. A national investor survey by the Clean Energy Investor Group (~140 respondents) found that 77% of respondents believe Australiaās clean energy investment landscape has deteriorated over the past 12 months: Transmission bottlenecks are the number one concern, followed by planning approval delays, grid
The Market Ear is bearish hyperscalers today. A mega bull sees a mega bear Christer Gardell is not your typical permabear. The Swedish billionaire is the founder of Cevian Capital, one of Europeās largest and most successful activist investment firms, and has spent more than two decades doing almost the exact opposite of what dominates
The weekend roundup of war news. Iran claims it still controls the Strait of Hormuz despite US President Donald Trump’s vow to turn it into US territory “pretty soon.” Iran missile hits cargo ship in Omani channel to make its point. According to Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, the canal blockage won’t end until
Over the years the British have copped a fair bit of flak, particularly from Australians, over everything from their approach to government to the performance of their cricket team. But the latest instance from the U.K. Financial Times is perhaps one of the most humbling for the inhabitants of the splendid grey-skied island in the
Sydney’s house price correction has worsened. The weekend’s preliminary auction clearance rate softened on historically weak volumes. The decline in Sydney dwelling values has also accelerated, falling by 1.4% over the past 28 days, according to Cotality. Over the past quarter, Sydney dwelling values have declined by 4.3%, an annualised run rate of just over
When you turn on the 6 o’clock news and get the latest economic growth figures, it is overwhelmingly the headline rate of inflation-adjusted GDP growth being reported. But as one might imagine, that is only part of the picture. The further you drill down into the data, the clearer the picture that emerges of the
There is an old saying in financial circles: the secret of business is to get between the money and the person who is about to receive it. The person leaving the money is no longer around to object. The person receiving it is simply grateful to be getting something. Everyone in between sees an opportunity.
By Dr Cameron Murray People simply assume an older population means more economic dependants. But the data shows falling economic dependency despite rising age dependency. I have written many times about why fears about ageing are misplaced. For starters, we have panicked about it for a century. Also, the reality is that we arenāt adding
International Reading: Credit card delinquencies approach Great Recession levels – Market Place Gen Z Is Moving Money From Stocks to Sports Betting in Wealth Plans – Bloomberg A shocking 92 percent of US adults not going to the doctor because itās too expensive – The Independent Most Americans would rather have $1,000 today than $1,100
In this weekās podcast, we’re examining the investment fallout from a potentially historic El NiƱo ā from droughts, floods and crop disruptions to rising food prices and renewed inflationary pressure. With El NiƱo strengthening and forecasts pointing to a potentially severe event, we explore which markets and sectors could be hit hardest, where opportunities may
According to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index, home values have declined by 3.2% from their peak across the five major capital cities. So far, this decline has been driven by Sydney (-5.8%) and Melbourne (-5.6%), with smaller falls of 1% or less recorded across the mid-sized capitals. The build-up of for-sale listings across the mid-sized
Readers will know that my base case for the coming midterms gauntlet is a disaster for the American republic. Polling indicates that both the House and Senate will swing to the Democrats, opening the way for the mass impeachment of the Trump cabinet. The Senate is closer and is the key, as it manages the
Housing Minister Clare O’Neil has defended the federal government’s 5% home deposit scheme amid renewed criticism from Coalition counterpart Andrew Bragg. A spokesman for O’Neil says the scheme has a default rate of less than 0.01%, while it has helped more than 260,000 Australians to buy their own home. Meanwhile, Treasury documents that Bragg has
Gas cartel HQ is busy massaging Japanese norks for panic. ….as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese grapples with the fallout from his comments last month about a gift of melons from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi…Trump has combined a charm offensive on Takaichi with typical economic coercion involving tariffs to push Tokyo to invest more heavily
According to the latest version of AEMO’s flagship report, the 2026 ISP released in June, over 5 GW of coal is scheduled to close in 2029: By 2035, Australia is scheduled to have lost around 15 GW of coal capacity, almost all from Victoria and NSW. Given the challenges that evolving and growing electricity demand
TME with the hilarity. Still Not Long Enough The chase is spreading. Tech is breaking higher with positioning still light, Korea remains aggressively under-owned, and retail is piling into gold miners. Yet the supposed epicenter of the AI bubble, Mag 7, is neither crowded nor expensive relative to history. Meanwhile, Brazil is moving the other
Victorians are unfortunately caught between a rock and a hard place on the Suburban Rail Loop (SRL). When Jacinta Allan took over as Victorian Premier from Dan Andrews in September 2023, she had the opportunity to follow expert advice and abandon the SRL Project, which had badly failed all independent cost-benefit analyses. Instead, Allan doubled
Murdoch is on the warpath. Banking giant ANZās revised forecast this week that capital city home prices would fall 10.6 per cent from peak to trough in the current slump ā led lower by Sydney sinking 14.5 per cent and Melbourne falling 12.8 per cent ā is the most dire prediction made following the May
The war newsflow was pretty grim. Houthis hit Saudi’s Jizan refinery with two drones. More than half of Yemen’s population does not have enough food to eat. According to US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, the US may keep the blockade on Iran “indefinitely.” But the clangour goes to Professor Pape. Majid Shakeri, an adviser
