Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Two major banks have joined the chorus, tipping that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise the official cash rate at next Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. Australia’s largest bank, CBA, wrote on Monday that “we now expect the RBA to hike in September, a meeting earlier than our previous November call. The risk sits
In February, I argued that data centres would blow up the world’s emissions targets. As illustrated below by CBA, the United States is the world’s epicentre for data centre investment, with Australia a distant second. However, the data presented above by CBA is based on Knight Frank estimates from 2024, and proposed data centre projects
There is no slowing in the Godzilla El Nino. The BOMs key measure of sea surface temperatures is off the chart. The Eastern Pacific is still birthing Cat5 cyclones. Cyclone Polo was smashed together from a binary system of two earlier cyclones. The implications for grains remain pressing. Société Générale offers the following handy map
Australia is heading into a steep debt‑refinancing cliff that will impact both federal and state governments. Federal gross debt surpassed $1 trillion (33% of GDP) in August and is projected to reach $1.25 trillion by 2030 due to persistent deficits. As reported by Michael Read at The AFR, $165 billion of ultra‑cheap COVID‑era federal debt will roll over
Remember the quaint idea popularised by Professor Michael Pettis that China must rebalance its economy from investment to consumption, or it will inexorably slow into a Japanese-style quagmire? Apparently not! From Goldman. The production-consumption gap is widening. Industrial production growthn accelerated to 5.2% yoy in August, while retail sales growth slipped to 0.4% yoy. Measurement
The inaugural Intergenerational Report (IGR) in 2002 forecast real GDP per capita at $114,265 today. However, analysis by independent economist Chris Richardson, reported in The AFR, suggests that real GDP per capita was just $99,742 in the year to 30 June 2026. Real per capita GDP is lower than expected because productivity growth has collapsed.
TME with the dynamic charts. The upside pain trade Breadth is poor, retail momentum is fading and sentiment has collapsed—yet NDX is back above its 100-day MA and has broken the short-term downtrend. With positioning cleaner, tech valuations reset and bulls in hibernation, upside remains the market’s main pain trade. Teflon tech Last week, we
War headlines today. Two Hormuz ship attacks overnight. Houthi war rages. Trump says he wants a quick deal. A quiet day on the Eastern Front, then, with some TACO thrown in, was enough to sink energy prices, including cracks. As noted yesterday, markets also have reasons to pause as the US-China summit looms in two
In recent times, the Canadian government has garnered a fair bit of support for its migration policy, as it moves to reduce the number of temporary visa holders and run a negative rate of net overseas migration in pursuit of having infrastructure, government services and housing catch up with the growth seen in demand. In
In 2002, the Australian Treasury released the inaugural Intergenerational Report, which forecast net overseas migration (NOM) averaging 90,000 annually and the population reaching 25.3 million by 2042: In 2003, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its Population Projections 2002 to 2101, which included a baseline (Series B) forecast of the nation’s population at 26.4
Home Affairs minister Tony Burke on Thursday delivered his long-awaited National Press Club address on how Labor will reform the immigration system. The event was mostly bluster, with little substance on the immigration front. Burke also claimed in his speech that “the housing shortage we have is not caused by immigration, but immigration needs to
TME on bearish sentiment. Risk appetite: Gone missing Where are all the risk-loving hot heads? Sentiment measures are near the bottom of their historical ranges, hedge fund net exposure remains low and credit funds are seeing outflows. A quick look at where positioning and risk appetite stand. Sore sentiment Investor sentiment has fallen sharply, with
The Australian newspaper has recently published a detailed report showing how Australia is facing its worst decade of productivity growth in more than 60 years of records, following last decade’s anaemic growth, which is currently the worst decade on record: Australia’s labour productivity growth this decade has ranked among the very poorest in the advanced
Iron ore is enjoying a pre-holiday bounce. The real iron ore price popped above $90 as freight prices eased as well. Steel inventories eased over the week. Iron ore inventories grew. The outlook remains poor. Housing sales are crapola. Price falls have slowed. Steel demand and supply are awful. No stimmies. And the export boom
Sydney’s housing correction has reached a new milestone, with Cotality’s daily dwelling values index now showing values down 8.0% from its peak in early March 2026. Cotality’s largest decline on record for Sydney is -12.9%, recorded between June 2017 and May 2019. This period was heavily impacted by APRA restrictions on mortgage lending, the banking
Governor Bullock was blatantly hawkish in her statement before Australia’s parliament on Friday. Bullock stated that “upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising,” citing “the Middle East conflict, the AI boom, and extreme weather events.” The governor said that Australia is now “in a very similar position to other countries” with “this prolonged Middle
Latest war headlines. North Sea oil soars as Saudis cut shipments. Houthis pound Saudi Arabia. Pakistan and Turkey mull intervention. Ukraine pounds Moscow oil refinery. Some solid new research from JPM is worth a look. Given the scale of the supply disruption, we expected inventories to draw rapidly and cautioned that, while the headline number
Amidst a flurry of headlines regarding changes to the Albanese government’s migration policy, it is increasingly clear that the government doesn’t understand the issue of immigration from a political perspective. For much of the current political cycle, Labor has been on the back foot on the issue of immigration levels, losing poll after poll to
Last week was seminal for immigration policy in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released population data for the March quarter of 2026, highlighting the record net overseas migration (NOM) under the Albanese government since it took office in June 2022. NOM averaged a whopping 1,106 per day over the first 3.75 years of
Last weekend, there was talk that the housing correction may be stabilising after the national auction clearance rate rose to a 19-week high of 52.6%. That belief was shattered this weekend, with Cotality’s preliminary auction results reporting a sharp retracement, with the preliminary clearance rate falling by 4.6% to 54.0% across the combined capital cities. The
A discussion paper evaluating a new, forward-only retirement system funded by non-marketable government bonds, run alongside the existing superannuation pool rather than replacing it. Prepared September 2026 By Deep T, Edited, Gunnamatta Executive summary The original 3 blog critique (Pt1 here, Pt2 here, and Pt3 here)argued that Australia’s compulsory superannuation system fails on ten
In his Citizenship Day address to the National Press Club, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke offered aspiring immigrants what he called “a relatively simple proposition”: “If you want to come on a temporary basis to Australia, apply for a temporary visa. If you want to come to Australia permanently, apply for a permanent visa.” He
International Reading: Full blown catastrophe: Trump’s Iran War leaves gas stations “out of diesel” – News Week Some gas stations “out of diesel” as prices surge – Yahoo Farmers slam Trump over record diesel prices: “we just can’t survive” – News Week Warsh Suggests Fed Rate Hike Is Good-News Story, Touting Growth | Fed Chair
By Deep T, editing Gunnamatta Intro to subject here, first 5 reasons here. A critical examination of a $4.4 trillion compulsory savings experiment Fund Managers Operate Under a Narrow Mandate That May Diverge From the National Interest Super fund trustees are legally required to act in the “best financial interests”
Australia’s economy has experienced some of the weakest per capita growth in the OECD over the past four years, with per capita GDP declining by 0.3% between Q2 2022 and Q2 2026. The only thing keeping the Australian economy from experiencing an actual technical recession is the nation’s strong population growth (via immigration), which is
