Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Australia’s construction pipeline is bigger than ever. Following decades of mass immigration, Australia is suffering from a chronic housing shortage estimated by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver to be between 200,000 and 300,000 dwellings. Australia’s current rate of housing construction is tracking at only 173,400 in the year to March 2026, well below last decade’s
TME on the crazy calm in equities. The current equilibrium wonāt hold, argues Deutsche Bankās Henry Allen. Rates markets are still underpricing the inflation pressure ahead, with only modest tightening cycles priced across central banks. Either inflation rolls over, or rates need to move higher. If it is the latter, risk assets will eventually have
According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) leading house price index, which is used by the Reserve Bank, home prices nationally have collapsed back to early 2018 levels in real terms following a near five-year decline: New data from Cotality likewise shows that New Zealand’s house price crash has reasserted itself following
There are loads of articles around today claiming a new iron ore boom as the price moves above $100. These are completely wrong. The only thing booming in iron ore is shipping rates, as diesel cracks go nuts. This is absorbed into the daily CFR price, which the market generally uses, but it is a
In late 2023, it was revealed that the former head of the Victorian transport department (i.e., from 2015 to 2018), Richard Bolt, told Victorian Ombudsman Deborah Glass that he was excluded from the early stages of the Suburban Rail Loop’s (SRL) development and cautioned that it would be a waste of public funds given that
My god, it has taken 15 years for the MSM to catch on, but it finally has. From the time-warped ABC. “All roads lead to Santos’s GLNG project,” says Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Financial. Kavonic, one of Australia’s most respected oil and gas analysts, says the tensions stem from the once-in-a-generation
War headlines today: Iran targeted US carrier with hypersonic missile. Hormuz traffic is down by one-third over the weekend, says Kplr. Houthis bomb Jizan again. Iran and Oman ready deal. Will US bomb it? The White House is losing control of the energy complex again. Cracks and Brent both roared. Dated Brent is likely pushing
With the release of the latest ABS Wage Price Index data came news that real wages were once again contracting on an annual basis, despite headline inflation remaining suppressed by the Albanese government’s cut to the fuel excise tax. As one might imagine, wage growth varied widely by industry, with the healthcare and social assistance
Property developer Bathla Group entered voluntary administration late last month after running out of cash, leaving $3.6āÆbillion in privateācredit debt, 2,000 homes midāconstruction, and 15,000 planned dwellings in limbo. Larry Kaine, managing partner at Corporate Recovery Partners, warned last weekĀ that the collapse of Bathla Group ā one of Western Sydneyās biggest home builders ā could
For months on MB, radio, and podcasts, I have been calling for the pension income test to be abolished so that pensioners can take on additional work without losing their access to the Aged Pension. A broad coalition of groups has backed the call, arguing the more people that can be retained in the workforce
The Day After Tomorrow comes to life as the Godzilla El NiƱo pumps its triplets into the Eastern Pacific. Poor little Hawaii is the cyclone sandwich. From left to right, they are Lowell (Cat 5) Karina (Cat 4) and Marie (Cat 2). The big view. Remember the movie. The latest on the Godzilla El NiƱo
According to data from realestate.com.au, housing affordability has fallen to its lowest level on record, with households earning a median income of about $125,000 a year only able to afford 12% of homes sold across the country. Record-high home prices in 2025 combined with higher interest rates could not offset income growth or recent price
The freight-adjusted iron ore price is still at about $90. Chinese port stocks are still easing. Expect a big turn up into year-end. Chinese steel output remains absolutely shocking. But it can’t draw down steel inventory. Nor is there much hope in profit margins. Stimmies suck. The cost curve shakeout has started. Led by Chinese
According to the official population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Sydney’s population was 180,300 larger than Melbourne’s in 2024-25: Sydney is currently Australia’s biggest city because the official boundaries used to draw the city limits are arbitrary. The official definition of Greater Sydney stretches all the way to Lake Macquarie, about 120
I have noted repeatedly that Michael Hartnett at BofA, the most famous asset strategist on the planet, has a blind spot when it comes to geopolitics. Today we get another dose. Midterms not āregime changeā election, e.g. Thatcher/Reagan in 1980 = end of inflation/start of bond bull, BREXIT/Trump in 2016 = end of globalization =
War headlines today: US bombs three Iranian tankers. Iran bombs three tankers and three cargo ships in response. Secretary of Iranās Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei is set to announce a new exclusion zone in the strait. US says it will bomb the strait forever. Israel continues to flatten Southern Lebanon. Russia/Ukraine peace talks
As falling housing prices continue to spread to a greater number of markets across the country, now encompassing 93% of suburbs, forecasts for the magnitude of the eventual peak-to-trough fall continue to be revised larger. According to the latest forecasts from the Commonwealth Bank, they now expect national price falls of 9% from the recent
This week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the national accounts for the June quarter, revealing that the economy grew by 0.4% over the quarter and 2.1% over the year. The result was slightly stronger than both the Reserve Bankās and economistsā expectations, which has unfortunately increased the chance of a rate hike at
By Dr Cameron Murray from Fresh Economic Thinking Your no-nonsense guide to a migration system that is poorly understood A lesson from the past few weeks of public debate in Australia is that even those who are most passionate about immigration donāt seem to understand how the design of the visa system affects Net Overseas
By the Stig, an anonymous beltway insider Albo scorns the voting mass who query his immigration (and climate) directions. Post the Secret Harbour ON surge, heās still blaming them as āmisinformedā or racist.Ā Itās a fashion among Australiaās governing classes to yearn for halcyon days. When supposedly curated and agreed āfactsā could be packaged by
International reading: US Army ‘could use student loans to conscript troops to fight Iran’ – AOL Trump Lies That Medicare for All Would Cost āEntire Budget of the Whole Countryā – Common Dreams Europe increasingly angry at US over world economy as Canada tariffs ‘harm everyone’ – The Mirror Dutch central bank moves ā¬10 billion
Victoria’s economy is in a precarious position. The state has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 5.1%, versus 4.2% across the rest of the nation: Wednesday’s national accounts for the June quarter also showed that Victoria recorded the nation’s biggest decline in real per capita household consumption in 2025-26: Victoria also has the
You have to see this from Ryan Maue. Godzilla El NiƱo birthing conveyor-belt cyclones in the Eastern Pacific. There is a dynamic GIF on his X feed, so check it out. This is pure climate science porn. In the Western Pacific, there is some divergence, which is probably temporary. The SOI, an atmospheric measure, has
The latest dwelling completions data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that only 173,400 homes were built in the year to March 2026, 66,600 (28%) fewer than the 240,000 annual run rate required to meet the National Housing Accord’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years. Over the first 21 months
The whacko ferrous rally has come to a shuddering halt as coking coal coughs. As previously noted, Chinese inspections of Shanxi coal mines following the epic May explosion that killed 82 workers have slowed production, but I do not expect this to last long. The July surge in imports eased in August. It should continue
