Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Amidst an already challenging set of circumstances for the nation’s residential construction sector, the latest Housing Industry Association (HIA) home sales figures have provided another unwelcome reality check for the Albanese government’s “aspiration” to build 1.2 million new homes over its 5 year ‘Housing Accord’ period. At a national level in the September quarter, new
Pity the poor university vice-chancellors who draw a third or a half of their students from overseas. Immigration is now firmly on the political agendaāfor all major political parties. And the policy choices made today will reverberate through university admissions for the rest of the decade. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation put the cat among the
Unbelievably, the federal parliament doesn’t allocate political staffers proportionally based on the number of seats held. As a result, we have a ridiculous situation whereby One Nation has been allocated only 0.83 staff per parliamentarian, far less than all other parties: The Senate on Thursday voted down a One Nation attempt to advance an inquiry
Ross Gittins was one of the few mainstream media commentators who took a principled stand on immigration. If you search for “immigration” on Ross Gittins’ website, you’ll find a slew of articles arguing against a “Big Australia” for economic, environmental, and liveability reasons (see sample below). Gittins sensibly argued that immigration was the “cheap and
Iron ore bottomed out Friday. We are headed into seasonal tailwinds before long. Chinese steel exports were up 0.3% YOY in September. YTD is down 2.4%. This headwind is fading. Chinese iron ore imports were down 5.5% YOY but up 4.1% YTD. Steel demand was better this week. Production remains terrible. Iron ore inventories are
TME on the macro. As good as it gets The best of the 2026 macro backdrop may already be behind us. Growth expectations are being marked down, financial conditions are no longer providing the same tailwind, and earnings momentum is losing breadth. Things aren’t necessarily getting bad, but they are incrementally getting less good. And
On 7 October, the High Court ruled against the already approved expansion of the Mount Pleasant thermal coal mine in NSW. The High Court ruled that the NSW government regulator āwas required to consider imposing conditions to minimise to the greatest extent practicable all greenhouse gas emissions, including scope 3 emissionsā. The rule was absurd
War headlines today. All lies. All of the time. Last week closed out with Brent futures breaking free to $110. The curve jumped meaningfully as well. In a twist, the immediate physical market cratered. Some pretty weird arbitrage stuff is going on here. Diesel also jumped higher. Hormuz transits have fallen materially. The China oil
In the normally quiet city of Limoges in central France, the entire Western world is being given a lesson as the historic 143-year-old town hall, which survived two world wars, is destroyed by fire amid the ongoing riots and civil strife gripping towns and cities across France. But it’s not like there were no warnings
The SMH’s Natassia Chrysanthos and Shane Wright have stepped up their lobbying for Big Australia immigration, claiming that One Nation’s immigration policy would “drive up national debt” by $275 billion, based on the Parliamentary Budget Office’s (PBO) Build Your Own Budget Tool: “Pauline Hansonās three-year negative migration scenario would also reduce Australiaās economic output by
Below is CBA economist Lucinda Jerogin’s round-up of this week’s economic data: Key points: Australiaās seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in September on the back of a 39.4k decline in employment and the participation rate easing from 67.0% to 66.8%. However, in trend terms unemployment held at 4.6%. The RBA Board Minutes from
By Steve Saunders The Courtās decision on the Mt Pleasant NSW coal-mine extension will only amplify Labor-Green determination to plug ahead with net-zero, punishing Australians for climate guilt. The judges were hemmed in by NSW climate laws, replicated in other states, and amplified at the federal level. They were between a coal-rock and a renewables
International Reading: Suddenly, Wall Street is worried that the U.S. economy is more āvulnerableā than it looks – Fortune Inflation Numbers Show Just How Badly Trump Wrecked the Economy – Rolling Stone Wholesale prices jumped 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022 – CNBC Inflation Report Shows Real Wages Are Falling For Workers –
Thursday’s labour force shocker from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which saw the nation’s unemployment rate rise to a five-year high of 4.7% (4.6% in trend terms), has tempered the financial market’s expectations for another interest rate hike. The unemployment rate is now tracking well above what the Reserve Bank had forecast in its
Honestly, if you have the dough, you could successfully argue the moon is made of poop in the Aussie political economy. Labor has failed to win over the Coalition and energy producers after unveiling legislation for its controversial gas reservation scheme, leaving the programās Āfuture in doubt as the government pledges to deliver a āsufficient
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lifted the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on 2 September ā its second increase in two months. The decision appears to have further dented confidence in the housing market, with New Zealand home prices continuing to fall 1.5% year-on-year, according to the Real Estate Institute
As is often the case, the cyclical downturn hits jobless youth hardest. Unemployment for kids is fast approaching the lowflation period. There are reasons to think the RBA will overshoot here. The loosening of youth employment is not just a cyclical story. AI is playing a role in crimping entry-level jobs. AITAI offers an interesting
In June, the World of Statistics tweeted that “India leads the world as the top remittance recipient country and is the only country in human history to ever exceed $100 billion in annual remittances”. New migrant remittance data from the World Bank shows that in 2025, India was a net recipient of US$138.6 billion in
DXY copped it last night. The AUD was hit even harder after the jobs shocker. The twins backed away. Metals are developing a growth worry. Big miners are closer to growth panic. EM flirted with doom. But was aided by junk as DXY plunged. The long bond was bid too. Stocks clung to the cliff.
War headlines today. Another tanker on fire in Sea of Oman. Trump mulls more bombing, but not before the midterms. Missiles everywhere in Yemen, Saudi. Dated Brent has eased a little. Diesel cracks eased slightly. But Gulf oil exports have fallen 40% since the Iranian rebombing began. US prices are still nasty. So it Polymarket
With the release of the latest auction clearance rate data from SQM Research, it was revealed that Sydney’s auction clearance rate had fallen to the lowest levels since their records began in February 2020 (excluding public holidays and the Christmas season) Of all the various providers of auction clearance rate data, SQM’s is the gold
Australia’s property market is facing its biggest price correction in more than 40 years, with values down by 7.1% across the five major markets since early April, according to Cotality. At the current pace of decline, the housing market should break the record by early December. The housing market outlook remains dire, with for-sale listings
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the September labour force survey, and it was a shocker. The headline unemployment rate climbed another 0.1% to 4.7% ā the highest reading since October 2021 ā while all of the sub-indicators were soft. The following table from the ABS summarises the key components from the survey: Total
In this weekās podcast, Nucleus Wealthās Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, is joined by Cameron Murray of Fresh Economic Thinking to challenge one of the biggest assumptions about Australiaās ageing population ā that more retirees inevitably mean fewer workers supporting more dependants. We unpack why traditional age-based dependency ratios no longer reflect how people live
The guy can’t walk a straight line on immigration, for the love of god. Our opposition to immigration is primordial ā deeply instinctive. But we mustnāt let it blind us to the benefits immigration brings. Donāt forget that, without immigration, our low natural increase (births minus deaths) thanks to a fertility rate (number of kids
