Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Australia’s income tax system is a scam. Despite real wages in Australia collapsing to late 2011 levels and not forecast to rebound by 2028: The amount of income tax paid has risen inexorably as nominal wage growth pushes people into higher tax brackets, raising their average tax rates. The budget papers showed that government revenue
The first question: Why do you want more money in your super? You can save on income tax now. Your superannuation is taxed at 15%for contributions up to a limit. There are also various government incentives. Earnings on investment returns are tax-free in retirement. And prior to retirement, you can save on the tax paid
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released an ugly labour force report for April, with employment decreasing by 18,600, the unemployment rate rising by 0.2% to 4.5%, despite the participation rate falling by 0.1%: As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the rise in unemployment was well above the Reserve Bank’s forecast
The federal government has introduced a suite of structural, legislative and administrative reforms to slow the rapid growth in National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) costs. The changes fall into five broad categories: tightening eligibility, reducing plan inflation, cracking down on fraud and non‑compliance, shifting some demand outside the NDIS, and workforce restructuring. Stricter access and
More gas cartel whinging today at Cartel Headquarters. Forcing east coast gas producers to sell 20 per cent of their LNG exports into the domestic market will kill gas companies and destroy businesses, according to Santos chief executive Kevin Gallagher, who says Australia risks going the way of Argentina and its failed export industry. The
NSW Treasurer Daniel Moohkey claims that private investment in renewable energy projects has stopped NSW from slipping into recession. “The number of renewable Âenergy projects now under construction, combined with all transmission lines and grid Âconnections currently being fixed, extended or upgraded, explains why the NSW economy is set to avoid a recession”, Mookhey said
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, takes a hard look at Australia’s shrinking fuel buffers — asking when do the pumps run dry? We break down the state of Australia’s oil reserves, the vulnerabilities in its supply chain, and what declining energy security means for markets, inflation risks, and investor
The AFR campaigns for productivity reform all the time. Then it constantly tries to kill it when it comes. Wankers. Keating excoriated “howls” from wealthy business people who had “feasted” on lightly taxed capital gains for 25 years and now opposed the return to the inflation indexation of capital gains that he set up as
In the years following the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia’s construction sector experienced a sharp rise in construction insolvencies. This wave of insolvencies was driven primarily by fixed-price contracts undertaken in the wake of the HomeBuilder stimulus. After these contracts were signed, supply chain bottlenecks sent material and labour costs soaring, which, combined with rising interest rates,
So far, it has only happened in private. Will it happen officially? ANZ explores. Australia is heavily dependent on refined fuel (diesel, petrol and jet fuel), with over 90% of these fuels imported. The transport, mining and agriculture sectors are highly dependent on fuel. For the transport sector, around 12% of its inputs come from
Sydney’s housing market is experiencing an accelerating downturn, with prices falling and auction clearance rates crashing, according to Cotality: Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro also reported that residential transfer duty transaction volumes have fallen sharply in NSW, consistent with the slowing property market: NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey used a pre-budget address to the McKell Institute
The AFR is an absolute specialist in hypocrisy. Bill Winters, who has run the $77 billion emerging market-focused bank Standard Chartered for 14 years, announced a plan to slash up to 8000 jobs between now and 2030 by deploying AI. There will be job “reductions in favour of machines, and that will accelerate as we
The flash PMI is sickening again. Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index: 47.8 Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m % qr/qr (Apr: 50.4) Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index: 47.7 (Apr: 50.7) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 (Apr: 51.3) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 48.5 (Apr: 48.5) Although the Australian private sector economy
Lots of headlines. All bullshit. Citi joins my team of Iran bears today. We continue to believe that oil markets are under-pricing duration and tail risks, and we expect Brent to trade up to $120/bbl in the near term. We continue to recommend that clients consider taking exposure to near-dated Brent as a hedge against
Before the impact of the war in the Middle East began feeding through to impact the confidence of Australians and, by extension, the nation’s property market, auction clearance rates in Sydney were already very weak. On the week ending the 1st of March, the harbour city’s auction clearance rate, according to SQM Research, was 45.9%,
The Albanese government’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) are designed to make housing more affordable for first home buyers (FHBs) by reducing investor participation in the market. As illustrated below by Cameron Kusher at Oz Property Insights, in the March quarter of 2026, the average loan size for an investor was
Australian new car sales have hovered above 1.2 million annually since late 2023, albeit having retraced from their June 2024 peak. A new survey from Roy Morgan suggests that new car buying intentions have fallen to a five-year low as Australians cut spending amidst economic uncertainty. Only 16%, or 3.8 million Australians aged 14+, intend
As expected, the bond crash is triggering rising turbulence for tech. TME with the charts. Lot of MOVEs Rates volatility is exploding higher, semis remain massively crowded, positioning has become euphoric, and some of the most aggressive AI momentum trades globally are starting to wobble at the same time. Rates matter Over the weekend we argued that
In November 2025, Alan Kohler presented an excellent explainer video for the ABC, arguing that the surge in net overseas migration from the mid-2000s, driven in part by international students, is a key reason behind the nation’s housing shortage. “That increase in student numbers contributed to a doubling of immigration in the mid-2000s, and that
According to Sarah Hunter, assistant governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the RBA anticipates that inflation will rise more than previously anticipated due to rising oil prices brought on by the Middle East crisis. Hunter clarified in a speech and interview that the RBA is concentrating on three factors: the risk of growing inflation
My biggest problem with the federal budget’s changes to the capital gains tax was that they could discourage the formation of new businesses and venture capital, thereby stifling entrepreneurship, investment, and productivity at a time when business investment is already near historical lows. The potential problems are summarised as follows: 1. Equity incentives become less attractive Startups
Gas cartel central is freaking out. AFR. Resources Minister Madeleine King didn’t attend the Australian Energy Producers conference in Adelaide this week, but her ears must have been on fire rather than merely burning. The gas industry escaped Jim Chalmers’ fervent budget wish to impose a big new tax on exporters only because of Anthony
Following this month’s interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Governor Michele Bullock warned that the Middle East war is already creating second-round inflation effects in Australia — where higher oil prices spill over into broader price and wage-setting — and that these effects risk making inflation more persistent and harder to
The Murdoch press is in panicked meltdown about the Budget. Jim Chalmers’ federal budget has stopped Sydney’s property market in its tracks based on a closer reading of auction data that reveals just three out of ten homes sold. The dramatic fall in the harbour city’s clearance rate according to SQM Research numbers foreshadows deeper
Dated Brent was stable overnight. HSBC explores how oil will balance. If refined product flows remain constrained, the market cannot rebalance through stock drawdowns alone indefinitely. Product demand (not just crude demand by refineries) will have to eventually adjust through a mix of adaptation, price response, and rationing. These mechanisms do not arrive at the
