Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Net overseas migration (NOM) has routinely exceeded the Albanese government’s forecasts since coming to office in mid-2022. As a result, the Albanese government has let in an unprecedented number of migrants during its reign. The May federal budget upgraded its NOM forecast by 55,000, with 295,000 net migrants now expected to arrive in 2025-26, down
An article from a long-retired, anonymous, public servant For most people who aren’t public servants, the APS is about the uber-level executives who specialise in obfuscatory answers or coming across as deers in headlights when being asked pointed questions at parliamentary inquiries, royal commissions, Senate investigations and the like. At the other end are the
International Reading: Dow jumps 700 points, oil tumbles as Trump cancels evening strikes against Iran: Live updates – CNBC Gen Z women won’t have their first child until 35 – Telegraph Trump’s war in Iran has wiped out 1.5 years of wage growth – EPI 20 House Republicans Break Ranks to Join Democrats in Passing
Australia’s housing market looks to be entering a major correction phase amid collapsing buyer demand. Last week’s final auction clearance rate plummeted to 47.3% across the combined capital cities, the second week in a row where the clearance rate was below the 50% mark and the lowest result since April 2020, during the depths of
According to some recent national opinion polls, One Nation is now the most popular political party at the federal level. Drilling down a little further into the party’s appeal, One Nation appears particularly strong in rural and regional electorates, with the South Australian state election and the federal by-election in Farrer providing recent evidence to
The robber barons aren’t sparing the horses now. Origin Energy expects the Albanese government’s domestic gas reservation scheme will initially lead to a glut of gas in the market, raising concern that volumes may not be able to be absorbed by domestic users. The scheme would mandate 20 per cent of all LNG exports to be supplied to
The economics of renewables are “getting worse, not better”, according to Origin Energy CEO Frank Calabria: Calabria told the Australian Energy Council conference in Sydney last week that the economics of large-scale renewable developments had deteriorated sharply over the past four years, with the cost of building wind farms rising about 50% since 2020 as
The Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) published the following chart, derived from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) national accounts, showing that the Albanese government is the first in modern history to preside over a fall in GDP per capita. “Per capita real gross domestic product has grown by less than zero (-0.49%) in real
DXY is still threatening, but an ECB hike gave the world relief. AUD popped back into the .70s. Oil sank; gold got an ECB lift as it sat on DXY. AI metals likewise. Big miners still look ugly. EM is toppy. Junk calm for the bulls. Yields followed oil rather than hot US inflation. Rebound!
Make of it what you will. Overnight: Despite seriously escalating rhetorical (“blowing the shit out of Iran” and take over Kharg Island) and kinetic action once again overnight, oil prices only managed modest gains as traders now seem reassured by reports (Trump) that an increasing number of oil tankers are sneaking through the Strait (with US help). 1030ET
Since the flow of trade through the Strait of Hormuz was reduced to a trickle at the start of the U.S.-Iran war as February drew to a close, China and the United States have been effectively acting as Atlas, holding up the world of global energy supplies. On the one hand, China has dramatically reduced
Housing Minister Clare O’Neil delivered a speech to the National Press Club last week in which she waxed lyrical about how Australia’s housing shortage is fundamentally a supply issue. Below are some highlights of Clare O’Neil’s claims: “The way to ensure Australians can afford a place is to build enough houses for everyone. Since the
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on the value of the nation’s dwelling stock, which hit a record high of $12.3 trillion in the March quarter of 2026, up 11.9% year on year: The value of Australia’s housing stock has doubled since the December quarter of 2016. In per capita terms, Australia’s housing
Gold has broken support and is in free fall. A nasty cross in moving averages. Gold vol suggests the selling is far from fever pitch. There are some obvious reasons for the fall. Climbing real rates in the US, as bond markets outpace the Fed, are never good for gold, given that the relative holding
Under Australian immigration rules, both international students and graduate visa holders can bring family members with them. Spouses can legally work for up to 48 hours a fortnight. Some may work illegally in the cash economy. The United Kingdom government, from 1 January 2024, banned undergraduate international students from bringing family members in a bid
Australia heads back to the doldrums Australia is growing at 2½% – not particularly strong with working age population rising by 1¾% – but now seems set to slow. Productivity growth remains poor, so 2½% growth created inflation pressure that the RBA had to respond to. The economy will head back to the doldrums of
Infrastructure Australia (IA) has repeatedly stated that it had “low confidence” in Victoria’s Suburban Rail Loop (SRL) East, which was forecast to cost $34.5 billion in 2021, based on 2019–20 assumptions. Adjusting only for inflation brings the estimate to around $42.3 billion, and that does not account for the post‑pandemic surge in construction costs. Several economists
Bravo! The government’s proposed reforms to negative gearing and capital gains tax have triggered a 20 per cent fall in Westpac’s housing investor loan applications over the past three weeks, with the head of consumer banking Carolyn McCann warning there is widespread community concern about the changes. The federal budget revealed a minimum 30 per
I reported last week how Asia’s addiction to coal is driving the world’s carbon emissions. Asian nations combined have accounted for all of the increase in the world’s carbon emissions since the turn of the century and for 60.6% of total global carbon emissions in 2024. Asia’s consumption of coal has increased from 12.88 TWh
Maybe. Too early to say. TME with the charts. Fear Is Spreading Volatility is no longer confined to a handful of names. Macro risks are returning, tech fear is surging, and emerging market volatility is exploding higher. The bigger question is what happens if orderly de-risking turns into something more disorderly. Macro fear is back
The Iran War is back on. The MOU is dead. And nobody cares. “We’re going to be attacking them, attacking them very hard,” the US President told reporters at the White House. “Based on the helicopter, I guess we have the right to do that. “We hit them hard yesterday, and we’re going to hit
In the last 18 months, the Canadian economy has faced significant challenges as it has tried to adapt to a trade war with the world’s largest economy, with which it shares an almost 9,000-km land border. Since the start of the U.S.-Canada trade war in early 2025, the Canadian economy has faced significant challenges as
The federal budget’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT) were designed to reduce investor demand for established housing, thereby lowering prices, without negatively impacting housing supply. From 1 July 2027, investors will only be permitted to fully negatively gear newly built dwellings. From 1 July 2027, the 50% CGT discount is abolished
Victorians have experienced severe Stockholm Syndrome with respect to the state Labor government. Victoria’s nine-month lockdown during the Covid-19 pandemic was among the longest and most severe in the world, driven in part by the state government’s incompetence in handling hotel quarantine. Victoria’s infrastructure projects have experienced massive cost overruns, and the government has swelled
China is the largest importer of Middle East oil. Yet, some say it is so far, the least affected by the Iran War. Is this meme true, and how did it achieve this? It is certainly true that China absorbed the greatest oil shock on the planet. And China has encouraged the switch by allowing
