Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese declared that by the time the next election is called in 2028, Labor will be able to present a track record of Australia not having had a single quarter of negative economic growth under his government: “My government is halfway through this term. When we go to the next election in
That the energy transition is behind is old news. Now we are getting reports of what it might mean. Australian power prices are Âprojected to nearly double by 2029 as delays in building giant wind farms and the closure of coal plants throttle the nation’s energy transition, hiking pressure on Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen
Economists and the housing industry have repeatedly warned that the Albanese government’s removal of key investor tax concessions (negative gearing on existing homes and the 50% CGT discount) would drive rents higher by pushing investors out of the market. These claims typically ignore that rents have already surged nationally over the past four years due
TME on AI cheap! The panic vs reality Texas accounts for more than a quarter of planned US data center capacity additions through 2030, so talk of a potential moratorium has rattled the entire AI complex. But Goldman argues the market is missing an important distinction: restrictions on new permits don’t stop projects already under
The latest Scanlon Foundation Mapping Social Cohesion Survey, based on responses from 10,000 Australians, finds that Australians continue to lose faith in high immigration amid deteriorating living standards. One in three Australians (32%) believe their lives will be “a little or much worse” in the next three to four years. The survey notes this is
In less than three weeks, the people of Victoria got to the polls to render their verdict on the Carroll government, the latest iteration of a Labor that has been in power for 12 years. In the long history of Australian politics, there are remarkably few at a state or federal level that makes it
Yesterday, a couple of data releases painted an increasingly disturbing picture of the local economy. The NAB business survey is bleeding out. Business conditions -1pt to -2 Business confidence -1pt to -15 Trading conditions -4pt to -1 Profitability -2pt to -8 Employment +5pt to +4 Forward orders -11pt to -12 Capacity utilisation -7bp to 82.1%
War headlines today. Trump says the military phase is “effectively over”. Poll: Americans want Dems to end it now. Three more tankers on fire in Hormuz. Houthis bomb Riyadh, Yanbu pipeline. Brent and cracks fell again as the big long is flushed. Dated Brent is a falling stone. LNG bottomed out. There is also some
Australia’s record housing correction has seen dwelling values across the five major capital city markets decline by 8.8% since early April. At the current pace of -4.7% per quarter, values are likely to be down by 10% across the five major capital cities by Christmas. Tim Reardon, chief economist at the Housing Industry Association (HIA),
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has been released and reveals that sentiment has crashed to a four-year low: The November fall was driven by a sharp deterioration in the near-term economic outlook. Over 70% of consumers expect mortgage rates to rise further over the next year, and expectations for house prices also took a
Is this industry propaganda trying to create a fait accompli? Industry sources have told The Australian that there are growing indications the government will amend the proposed scheme, as it is aware its original design risks undermining investment in future gas supplies. One of the most contentious elements is the requirement that LNG exporters make
In recent years, more New Zealanders than usual have moved to Australia. As illustrated in the chart below, around 28,000 net New Zealand citizens migrated to Australia, significantly more than the average of 19,000 recorded over the past 22 years: Independent economist Cameron Bagrie suggests net migration from New Zealand to Australia could eventually fall
This is damn predictable these days. TME with more. Sexy SOX SOX is bouncing hard, reclaiming the trendline. One day doesn’t make a bull market, but the positioning puke has been extreme. Should this space squeeze further, people will be forced to chase. Â Source: LSEG Workspace Covid panic levels Another chart of the great
Australia’s productivity growth over the past decade has been among the poorest in the OECD, hampering economic and per capita growth and contributing to the nation’s inflationary pressures. The Australian’s Matthew Cranston revealed that Treasurer Jim Chalmers has asked Treasury officials in the “structural reform branch” to develop new productivity policies for next month’s mid-year
DXY puked last night. EUR is trying to base. AUD crashed up. North Asia is less excited. The twins of debasement have reversed violently. There is no growth problem in metals. Miners are hanging on. EM crashed up. Junk is now supportive. As duration falls. Stocks loved it. As expected, at the first draw of
War headlines today. Report: IAEA inspectors might return to Iran. More Hormuz attacks. More Russian refinery attacks. Impeachment of Pete Hegseth is likely. Brent crashed; cracks fell. Dated Brent looks closer to the truth. LNG is still falling. The market is clearing a big long. Local diesel has about 0.30/l relief on the way. While
In a recent appearance on ABC’s Insiders program, Treasurer Jim Chalmers made the claim that the Albanese government had made an enormous amount of savings on the federal budget, touting the government’s skills at economic and fiscal management. “The last budget of our predecessors had no savings, we’ve found almost $180 billion in savings, more
In May 2023, the Albanese government announced changes to Australia’s Working Holiday Maker (WHM) Program and the UK’s Youth Mobility Scheme under the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement (AUKFTA). The changes allow young Aussies to work in the UK unrestricted for three years and allow young Brits to work in Australia on a similar basis. Thus,
The latest opinion polls suggest that the Victorian Labor government faces a crushing defeat at this month’s state election on 28 November. The DemosAU/PremierNational poll shows Labor’s share of the primary vote has plummeted by seven points to just 18%, trailing the Coalition on 33% and One Nation on 21%. The Greens have almost drawn
Iron ore has had a few better days, tracking HRC. My freight-adjusted chart has improved a little. Late October CISA data was down 3% YOY. Pretty weak. MySteel was worse. Demand improved slightly but still sucks. Steel inventory is stable YOY. Real estate is still awful. There’s a little stimmy pulse. It’s pretty gloomy, but
The quality of policymaking and public service delivery has arguably worsened across Australia, despite the growth in public sector employment at both the federal and state levels. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released data on the public sector showing that the total number of public sector jobs rose by 2.3% between June 2025
TME on what my long-awaited Madman flush has delivered so far. The great positioning flush The week’s market turmoil triggered one of the sharpest positioning resets in years, with hedge funds aggressively cutting exposure and broader equity positioning turning underweight. Here are the charts showing the scale of the unwind — and how far positioning
A month ago, I reported on the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water’s Australian Energy Update 2026. The data showed that energy consumption by the manufacturing sector shrank by 2.5% annually over the past decade: The decline in energy use in the manufacturing sector has been broad-based across its sub-sectors: Last week, the Australian
DXY got a lift from better jobs. AUD had its face pressed into the turf. The short is still huge. Expect a quick snap back the moment things stabilise. Big oil relief. Nothing like a socialist to support gold. Metals alert but not alarmed. Big miners are rock solid in the circumstances. EM puke. But
War headlines today: US expands land blockade US bombs Queshm Island air defences again Eleven tankers hit last week Eisenkot gets 28 days to try to form Israeli coalition government Brent and cracks eased. LNG was pounded in Europe. Some charts today illustrate that even with a better outlook for peace, the oil market has
