Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
As housing price falls continue to spread to more and more markets across the nation, it often feels like not a week goes by without a major bank or prominent analyst revising expected price falls upward. As of the latest data from Cotality, capital city housing prices (5 largest capitals) have dropped by 5.7%, with
The biggest economic story in Australia is data centres. Only a couple of years ago, energy demand in Australia was falling as large industrial energy users closed. However, today, data centres have completely flipped the script, threatening to massively increase energy demand. The 2026 Intergenerational Report, released on Monday, pinned Australia’s future productivity growth on
As reported earlier, Australia’s unemployment rate has jumped to 4.6% – the nation’s highest rate since October 2021. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner at IFM Investors, Australia’s unemployment rate is now significantly above the Reserve Bank’s expectations, raising some caution ahead of Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting: However, while the headline result was weak, the
Australian renters have been hit with a circa 50% increase in advertised rents since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Cotality, adding more than $12,500 to the annual cost of renting for the median Australian tenant. While the rental market is showing signs of easing, with vacancy rates rising and growth slowing, rents continue to rise
ABS just now. In seasonally adjusted terms, in August 2026: the employment-to-population ratio increased 0.1ppt to 63.9%. the unemployment rate increased 0.2ppt to 4.6%. In trend terms, in August 2026: the employment-to-population ratio remained at 63.9%. the unemployment rate increased marginally to 4.6%. Jobs rose 39500, but full-time fell 6000. Hours worked has gone nowhere all
TME investigates. Extreme in rates land The US 10-year yield is putting in an absolutely massive up candle post the disastrous 5Y auction. We are in pretty much uncharted territory for this cycle. RSI is very overbought, but the momentum behind this rates move is extreme. Source: LSEG Workspace When equities start to care The
The 2026 Intergenerational Report (IGR) forecasts that the federal budget will remain in deficit for the next 40 years: The IGR projects government payments to rise from 26.6% of GDP to 27.7% in 40 years but assumes tax receipts (which account for more than 90% of total receipts) do not exceed a historical high of
This country has dragged the anchor on energy. After years of politicking, rent-seeking and bad ideas, hysteria has replaced debate in energy planning. For years, all we needed to do to stabilise prices, keep the energy transition on track, and meet reliability goals was secure our own gas supplies. This basic national-interest notion is lost
After 20 years of mass immigration, which has seen Australia’s population grow at more than 2.5 the rate of the OECD, voters have had enough. The latest Newspoll shows a clear public shift: about two‑thirds of Australians want lower immigration, including large shares of Labor voters. This comes as both major parties face pressure from
DXY hit the afterburners after face-ripping US PMIs. AUD was pulverised. The carpet was torn out from under North Asian forex as well. The twins of doom aren’t happy. My gold vol play is working nicely against gold itself. Base metals are OK. Big miners are not. RIO has traced a massive head-and-shoulders top. EM
War headlines today: Hormuz ship struck by an unknown projectile and abandoned. Houthis fire missiles at two ships in Bab-Al-Mandeb. More talks between the US and Iran. The big deal today is the growing rumour of a US diesel export ban. The Madman threw his support behind the idea, but the Energy Secretary did the
As the debate surrounding the issue of the right level of migration for Australia unfolds in the halls of power in Canberra, commentary regarding the claimed negative impact of One Nation’s proposed 3 year period of net negative migration continue to propagate. In recent commentary to the Australian Financial Review (AFR), Australian National University Migration
If you genuinely care about the environment, you should support nuclear power generation, as it emits zero carbon, has the lowest environmental footprint, and uses the fewest resources. Nuclear power is also firm power, meaning it doesn’t depend on the weather, is available whenever it’s needed, and can run 24/7. Thus, nuclear power is the closest
Australia’s house price correction of -5.7% since mid-April 2026 has now gotten within 3% of the largest downturn in recorded history (40 years), which was -8.6% between October 2017 and May 2019. The correction has also spread to the mid-sized capitals of Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, which are declining slightly faster than the two largest
No. Top-tier cities have better signs, but they’re only 10% of the market. Sales remain terrible. The exit remains jammed. Price woe persists. Inventory is better but still ugly. Completions are sagging, driving commodity demand down. Iron ore is flopping around the $88 mark, adjusted for the $17/t C5 shipping price. The roaches are still
Labor’s Powering Australia Plan, taken to the 2022 federal election, claimed that it would cut NEM wholesale power rates by $11 per MWh (from $62 to $51) by 2025. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese praised RepuTex Energy’s analysis as “the most comprehensive modelling ever done for any policy by any Âopposition in Australia’s history since Federation”.
Here is the LNP’s new energy eight-point plan. The Coalition’s eight priorities if it wins power Repeal the Climate Change Act 2022, removing the legislated net-zero emissions targets Remove the safeguard mechanism Repeal the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard Act of 2024 Revoke four offshore wind energy zones across the Hunter, Illawarra, Southern Ocean and Bunbury
Australia’s media swallowed the Intergenerational Report’s (IGR) propaganda that Australia faces an ageing crisis without mass immigration. This report from the ABC is typical of the types of articles that have proliferated in response to the latest IGR, released on Monday: For the first time, Australia has a projected date when deaths will outpace births.
Polymarket has decided the Dems will sweep the midterms. Polling is likewise swinging away from the Madman. This may be as much about his unilaterally supportive AI stance as it is energy prices. And this trend does not fully capture his single-minded AI support in the face of alarming warnings. What will a Dem sweep
Via S&P. Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index: 50.8 Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m % qr/qr (Aug: 52.7) Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index: 51.4 (Aug: 53.2) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 (Aug: 52.0) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 46.4 (Aug: 49.6) Here’s the money quote. Softer demand was central to the
War headlines today. Trump threatens Iran with annihilation at the UN, then his minions meet Iranians for TACO. MBS is overdoing propaganda about Houthi Mecca attacks. False flag alert. Trump mulls a diesel export ban. Yanbu pipeline to restart at 40% capacity. More to take two months. Here is US gasoil versus European, which is
Earlier this week, we published an article detailing how the Albanese government does not understand immigration as a political issue and how it is a huge element of the foundation on which One Nation’s recent success has been built upon. In a very brief summation, immigration is the one issue where One Nation is well
Two major banks have joined the chorus, tipping that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise the official cash rate at next Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. Australia’s largest bank, CBA, wrote on Monday that “we now expect the RBA to hike in September, a meeting earlier than our previous November call. The risk sits
In February, I argued that data centres would blow up the world’s emissions targets. As illustrated below by CBA, the United States is the world’s epicentre for data centre investment, with Australia a distant second. However, the data presented above by CBA is based on Knight Frank estimates from 2024, and proposed data centre projects
There is no slowing in the Godzilla El Nino. The BOMs key measure of sea surface temperatures is off the chart. The Eastern Pacific is still birthing Cat5 cyclones. Cyclone Polo was smashed together from a binary system of two earlier cyclones. The implications for grains remain pressing. Société Générale offers the following handy map
