Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hand down its interest rate decision later today, with financial markets and economists widely tipping a 0.25% increase in the official cash rate (OCR). The likely OCR increase comes at a time when mortgage holders already spend a near-record share of their incomes servicing their loans. Financial markets
The Albanese government is trying to censor debate via its Digital Duty of Care Bill, which would make the eSafety Commissioner the central regulator with significantly expanded powers to police what we say online. The Bill contains broad definitions of “harm” and “misinformation” and gives the Minister for Communications and the eSafety Commissioner wide discretion.
TME with more. The earnings test beneath the rally The S&P 500 is near its highs, but only about a quarter of its stocks are above their 50-day averages. Earnings estimates show a similar divide. The index’s Q3 estimate rose 1.2% from 30 June to 31 August, while estimates fell in seven of eleven sectors.
New national polling shows Australians have lost confidence across the entire housing market — buyers, sellers, renters and investors alike — reflecting deep financial stress, falling prices, and expectations of further RBA rate rises. The SEC Newgate Mood of the Nation survey of 1659 voters between September 8–14 found: 56% say it’s a bad time
The ferrous complex is still under pressure. C5 shipping prices have come down to $15.63 on Friday, so my normalised CFR price is sitting at $89.51. The signals are still poor. MySteel steel indexes are still through the floor. Demand is crap. But production is phwoar. Steel inventory is still above last year but is
In 2002, the inaugural Intergenerational Report (IGR) was released, which forecast that net overseas migration (NOM) would be 90,000 annually and that the population would grow to 25.3 million by 2042. Instead, Australia’s population has hit 28.1 million, according to the ABS Population Clock, about 4.5 million (19%) higher than the 23.6 million originally assumed
Australian PMIs are peeling away from the pack and not in a good way. Activity no bueno. Employment no bueno. Price rises are slower than elsewhere. \ 5.4% in the Aussie 10-year is worst-case inflation + 2-3%. This is a good bond fund return for buy-and-hold investors. The problem is, even though the RBA is
War headlines today. Trump rejects Iran’s 7-day MOU plan. Iran bombs 19 ships in Hormuz in response. Still talking. Houthis fire more missiles at Saudi. The biggest news was the Trump-Xi summit, which ended with the former demanding China produce more oil products and the latter ignoring the request. As of Friday, Dated Brent still
Since One Nation began its rise in the polls a few months after the last federal election in May 2025, the reasons for its rise have been hotly debated. For a long time, One Nation’s threat to political fortunes outside of the Coalition was largely dismissed. This echoed the initial response to the rise of
The interest rate futures market overwhelmingly expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lift the official cash rate by 0.25% on Tuesday. The futures market has also priced in a high probability of two further rate hikes over the next six months, which would take the cash rate to 5.10%. Given that mortgage payments
Ahead of the Reserve Bank’s interest rate meeting on Tuesday, widely expected to lift the official cash rate by 0.25%, Australia’s auction market weakened this weekend, posting the lowest preliminary clearance rate in 10 weeks. According to Cotality, the preliminary clearance rate came in at 50.3%, down from 54.0% last week, which was revised down
By Stephen Saunders Imagine a calmer and safer post-Bondi Australia. Immigration is low and less divisive. The government need not lie about it all the time or continually attack citizen-voters.  Albanese Labor is never going to be that government. It’s inconceivable, simply not in their elitist and globalist DNA. Canada and other prosperous nations prove
International Reading: Majority of voters say country is on wrong track, favor Democrats in 2026: Poll – The Hill Trump ready to ban diesel gas exports to lower costs at home – something his own energy secretary says could backfire – Independent Team Trump can’t keep its story straight on a proposed ban on ‌diesel
In this week’s podcast, Damien Klassen is joined by Martin North of Walk the World and DFA Live to uncover where Australia’s housing downturn is hitting hardest. We look beyond the national numbers to identify the suburbs and postcodes seeing the biggest price falls, what these areas have in common, and why some parts of
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has taken his attack on democracy global. Earlier this month we learned that the Albanese government is trying to censor debate via its Digital Duty of Care Bill, which would make the eSafety Commissioner the central regulator with significantly expanded powers to police what we say online. The Bill contains broad
Westpac has some useful charts that break down national trends. The jobs growth downtrend has paused. Hours worked still look sick. We all drive for Uber now. Jobless uptrend rock solid. Underutilisation too. Kids copping it. The RBA loves the smell of burning childern in the morning. The more the better. Bedpan breakdown? Female unemployment
Much of the discussion around interest rates revolves around Australian households, who are facing another two to three interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which would take the official cash rate to 4.85% or 5.10% – the highest level since 2008. Such rises would come at a time when mortgage servicing
Risk is coming out of EM, forex, and bonds. But stocks don’t care. How long can it last? TME. Bonds break. Stocks haven’t blinked The bond market is setting the pace. The 10-year has broken out of a three-year range, MOVE has surged, and small caps are feeling the pressure. Equities and VIX still look
We recently reported that Canada’s population has been declining because the centre-left Liberal government decided in late 2024 to slash immigration. In the March quarter of 2026, Statistics Canada reported that Canada’s population had declined by 234,500 from its peak in Q2 2025, driven by a 590,500 reduction in non-permanent residents (NPRs) from their peak
DXY is back. EUR is failing. Scott Bessent is going to need a bigger house. Gold woes continue as oil rips anew. No growth problem here, says copper. Big miners are not so sure. EM stocks will get flushed if SXY continues. Junk is clearing its throat for an almighty scream. The US curve is
War headlines today. Houthis hit two more Res Sea ships. China says US must return to MOU. Deal denied. Iran says it will expand the war to the Indian Ocean. Lite headlines, but not lite price action. Dated Brent tool off. Diesel cracks did a bit better. US-European diesel spreads priced in some risk of
As housing price falls continue to spread to more and more markets across the nation, it often feels like not a week goes by without a major bank or prominent analyst revising expected price falls upward. As of the latest data from Cotality, capital city housing prices (5 largest capitals) have dropped by 5.7%, with
The biggest economic story in Australia is data centres. Only a couple of years ago, energy demand in Australia was falling as large industrial energy users closed. However, today, data centres have completely flipped the script, threatening to massively increase energy demand. The 2026 Intergenerational Report, released on Monday, pinned Australia’s future productivity growth on
As reported earlier, Australia’s unemployment rate has jumped to 4.6% – the nation’s highest rate since October 2021. As illustrated below by Alex Joiner at IFM Investors, Australia’s unemployment rate is now significantly above the Reserve Bank’s expectations, raising some caution ahead of Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting: However, while the headline result was weak, the
Australian renters have been hit with a circa 50% increase in advertised rents since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Cotality, adding more than $12,500 to the annual cost of renting for the median Australian tenant. While the rental market is showing signs of easing, with vacancy rates rising and growth slowing, rents continue to rise
