Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The Australian Greens have promised to waive through various tax reforms impacting superannuation and property investment, in a bid to boost budget revenue and improve equity. After months of pushing for amendments, the Greens have agreed to pass the extra 15% tax on earnings from super balances above $3 million without changes (i.e., Division 296).
Victoria’s 2025‑26 Mid‑Year Financial Report was released on Friday and showed that the state’s net debt has increased by $10 billion in six months, reaching $160.9 billion: Net debt as a share of the state economy has risen from 23.7% to 24.2% in six months. Interest costs are also escalating. $3.8 billion was spent on interest
Charts from TME. Stocks printed a large hammer reversal as the G7 and Trump TACO rescued the day. God bless it. VIX is mean-reverting, so if we see an incremental shift towards the TACO from here, then stocks will automatically rise. Oil-printed a huge shooting star. This looks overdone to me. But it is a
Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro produced the following chart, showing how Australia’s labour productivity growth (i.e., GDP per hour worked) has ranked among the poorest in the advanced world over the past decade. One of the longer-term factors behind Australia’s poor productivity growth is “capital shallowing”. I.e., the population, via immigration, has grown faster than
DXY flamed out last night on the G7 unpledge to release petroleum reserves. AUD reversed all of the losses. Oil tanked. North Asia is still struggling. The AI metal swoon reversed. As did the mining crash. Plus EM. Junk is still nervy. US yields reflected the jobs, not the oil shocker. Stocks bid WIII hard.
I noted on Monday how Australia is facing rising energy costs on three fronts: Soaring petrol/diesel prices Rising gas prices Rising electricity prices. The most immediate shock is higher petrol/diesel prices, which have risen above $2 per litre in most capital cities. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, global oil prices have
Yes, you read that right, you’re about to get power and gas bill cuts. Gas prices have tanked over the last quarter. This is especially striking given the spike in Asian LNG prices above $23Gj. The falling gas price has helped wholesale electricity prices fall over the last five months from an average of $116M/h
The G7 will bail out the American Idiot with its strategic petroleum reserve after he proposed a 300-400m/b release, roughly a quarter of the total and equivalent to all of the remaining US strategic reserve. This is desperate stuff. Or will it? French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the Group of Seven is “not there
As the war in the Middle East continues to drag on, the Trump Administration is seeking a means by which it can be brought to a swift conclusion. One option that is increasingly gaining traction is seizing Kharg Island in the northwestern corner of the Persian Gulf, which currently accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil
The 2020s are shaping up as a decade to forget for Australian households. According to national accounts data released last week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), real per capita household disposable income—arguably the best indicator of material living standards—remained stuck in the low growth zone in 2025, still tracking 3.9% below the COVID-19
It may seem counterintuitive, but, in my view, the odds of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike next week are falling by the minute. If the Iran war continues at its current intensity and the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, the oil price will be $200 next week, on its way to $500
Australia’s major capital city housing markets have been two-speed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. As illustrated below using PropTrack data on dwelling values, home prices across Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have more than doubled since March 2020, whereas Sydney (46%) and Melbourne (22%) have experienced significantly slower value growth: Cotality’s
The supply-side nutters at the Centre for Independent Studies have produced “research” showing that “migrants aren’t to blame for the housing crisis”. Instead, the CIS argues that Australia’s housing shortage is “the result of not enough dwellings being built”: “Population growth alone does not produce today’s housing shortage”, claimed CIS author Marian L Tupy. “The
With the likelihood of a protracted war in the Middle East increasing, Australia is facing rising energy prices on three fronts. Rising Oil (Petrol and Diesel) Prices: The price of oil has already risen and should continue to do so as global supplies are halted and the Straits of Hormuz seize up. All Iran needs
Proponents of high levels of immigration typically argue that it lifts productivity and living standards because migrants tend to be better educated and more highly skilled than the average Australian. They generally cite spurious modelling to support their claims, ignoring the actual empirical evidence showing that Australia’s labour productivity and per capita GDP growth slowed
The world is falling apart, but the jaws are back. According to scuttlebutt, the proximate causes are: China’s state-run iron ore buyer told several traders this week to buy fewer seaborne cargoes of BHP’s flagship products, including Mac fines and Newman fines, people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, as a months-long contract dispute
Oil is up 18% at $109 this morning. Goldman reckons oil is going higher. The analysis highlights rapidly rising upside risks to oil prices from a severe disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The base case forecast previously assumed Brent crude in the low $80s in March and the high $70s in
The global gas shock is building and is going much higher this week unless the TACO comes. If the TACO doesn’t arrive, the gas price will skyrocket by the following week. But so far, the reaction at home has been completely different from the reaction to the Ukraine War. The local gas spot price is
Since the latest round of conflict in the Middle East kicked off on the 28th of February, the cost of a barrel of oil (WTI) has risen by $23.98 compared with the final close of markets prior to the war, representing a rise in oil prices of 35.6%. Taking a longer view, the current level
President Donald J. Trump oversees Operation Epic Fury at Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, FL, Feb. 28, 2026. (White House photo by Daniel Torok) We have become spectators in the demolition of an era. We are now, more than ever, bit players in what is unfolding, so we are detached. We can’t take our eyes off the
International Reading: Susie Wiles at center of ‘screaming’ panic inside Trump’s White House as Iran war sends gas soaring – Daily Mail Documents Reveal a Web of Financial Ties Between Trump Officials and the Industries They Help Regulate – Pro Publica Democrats Are Very Skeptical About Funding For Trump’s Iran War – Huff Post A
New Zealand is slowly recovering from its sharpest economic downturn since the Global Financial Crisis. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, real GDP and income per capita have fallen sharply from their recent peak: New Zealand’s decline in real GDP per capita is among the sharpest in the advanced world: New Zealand’s
Wednesday’s national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that government spending continued to be a key driver of GDP growth in 2025, continuing the strong growth experienced since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic: The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is a key driver of the growth in public spending, alongside
Charts from TME. So far, oil is manageable. But oil volatility is through the roof. Europe does not like it. Investor enthusiasm for Europe could worsen. Ouch. EM bust. ROW equity stress is intense. Goldman reckons that, although many investors saw the news as somewhat misleading, markets recovered yesterday thanks to headlines indicating progress in
This week, I lambasted the Australian National University’s (ANU) Jill Sheppard for stating that donations and lobbying from big business on immigration are “actually good” because they sway politicians to keep immigration high against the wishes of Australian voters, who overwhelmingly want lower immigration: I argued that Sheppard’s testimony effectively said, “Screw what voters actually want. They don’t
