Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Wow, man, we are pwned. Santos-backed Gladstone LNG has secured a reprieve from the Albanese government’s domestic gas reservation scheme, shielding the Queensland project from the full force of the new rules while honouring existing export contracts. The concession is a victory of sorts for Santos and its international partners, which faced the prospect of
If you want proof that Australia has become a taxing and spending economy, look no further than the latest taxation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), compiled by The Australian Newspaper. The combined tax revenue of the nation’s federal, state and local governments has risen to $893 billion a year, up 61% since
The great Simandou cost-curve shakeout has begun, and it is colliding with the Iran War shock, so it will likely get much worse before it improves. The latest C5 shipping cost for Pilbara Capesize is still $18-19. This puts FOB iron ore spot prices at around $87-88, the lowest in four years. But this time
New Zealand’s housing price correction began in November 2021, and since then, prices have declined by more than 15% nationally in nominal terms and by around 30% in real, inflation-adjusted terms. As a result, real New Zealand housing prices are tracking at the same level as March 2018: There are good reasons to believe that
Don’t hold gold during VaR shocks. Tattoo it on your forehead. Gold does poorly during VaR shocks that squeeze liquidity out of the market. This is especially true when the shock is triggered by rising interest rates, a double-barreled shotgun blast to the gold bull case. I am a secular gold bull for the same
Earlier this week, IÂ reported that the latest NAB Business Survey showed conditions were at their lowest level since the pandemic, as profitability collapsed. “The result suggests a growing share of firms are reporting margin squeeze, likely reflecting the combined impact of elevated costs and higher interest rates”, noted Westpac. On Thursday, Roy Morgan released its
Don’t say I didn’t warn you! A little safe-haven action with the oil price surge lifted DXY. AUD was smashed. The twins of doom are roaring in opposite directions. Dr Copper should be reported to AHPRA, though it wouldn’t do anything. Call this wake in fright. Big miners gapped into madness. EM ETFs held up,
War headlines today. Houthis capture the entire Bab al-Mandeb coastline and bomb the Yanbu pipeline in six places. Mwhaha. Nuke alert: Pickaxe Mountain propaganda spreads. Saudis report lowest monthly oil output since 1990. UKMT reports four unknown projectiles hit two tankers in the strait overnight. How reassuring. It was a relatively quiet day on the
As the debate over Australian housing price falls and the correct approach to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount on existing homes continues, we have new hard evidence from New Zealand on the impact of housing crashes on demand from various different buyer cohorts. Of all the major cities in New Zealand, Wellington
The latest inflation data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that property rental growth was tracking at 3.6% in the year to July, down from a peak of 7.8%: However, Cotality’s advertised rents series has risen strongly over the past year, tracking at 5.7% in the year to August across the combined capital
Australia’s construction and property leaders warn that the country cannot meet its housing and infrastructure targets without more skilled migrant workers. McNab Group founder Michael McNab says political debate on migration has become sensationalised and disconnected from economic reality. Productivity has fallen so far that Australia now needs more workers to build the same volume
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, is joined by Leith van Onselen of MacroBusiness to examine why Australia’s housing downturn could have much further to run. With prices now falling across much of the country and forecasts pointing to a potential double-digit correction, we unpack what’s driving the decline, how
If you think the oil shock is not impacting global inflation, look no further than China for the counter-argument. The CPI is suddenly raging at 4.8% annualised in August. In August 2026 , the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% year-on-year . Specifically, urban areas saw a 0.8% increase, while rural areas experienced a 0.7% rise. Food prices decreased by 1.4% , while non-food prices
In May, the Migrant Justice Institute released a report revealing that Australia has a systemic, economy‑wide architecture of migrant worker exploitation, with nearly two-thirds of migrant employees being underpaid. Based on 9,963 migrant workers surveyed in 2024 across six languages: 65% paid below legal entitlements 36% paid below the national minimum wage 25% underpaid by $10+ per
I did warn that the spineless dog would do this. The Albanese government is set to retreat from its demand that Australia’s gas exporters set aside a fixed 20 per cent of their supplies for domestic use and will instead require them to put “up to” one fifth of their production into the local market.
According to EY’s annual State Budget Monitor, the eastern state governments are especially reliant on stamp duty receipts, which comprise 17% of revenue in Victoria, 16% in NSW, 15% in Queensland, and 15% in Tasmania: The sharp downturn in the property market, therefore, threatens to hammer state budgets at a time when they are drowning
DXY appears weak. AUD now has a dual North Asian tailwind. Oil is pressuring gold. Base metals are blowing off. Miners not so much. EM stocks are hanging on. But US junk is breaking and will widen all crapola spreads in due course. This is a major warning signal for equities. The US 2-30 curve
War headlines today. Comedy: Trump says war will end immediately after the midterms. Iran announces a “20 for 2” response strategy in huge escalation doctrine. Iran demands an end to strikes, an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, an end to the blockade of Yemen, and the release of $24 billion in frozen assets in order to
Since the Albanese government came to power, one metric it has pointed to most as a sign of its economic management is the nation’s unemployment rate. In trend terms, the unemployment rate currently sits at 4.5%, well below the 5.2% recorded in the final month of 2019, but higher than the low of September 2022,
Property developer Bathla Group entered voluntary administration late last month after running out of cash, leaving $3.6 billion in private‑credit debt, 2,000 homes mid‑construction, and 15,000 planned dwellings in limbo. Around 40 private credit funds are owed more than $3 billion, including PAG, Balmain, Trilogy, Centuria Bass, Ray White Capital, and La Trobe Financial. Some lenders
The political class in Australia has truly ‘jumped the shark’. Last week, Celia Perkins, Deputy Secretary of Security and Estate at the Department of Defence, opened a public Senate committee hearing by reading a prepared statement that attempted to prohibit the reposting of Defence evidence on social media and the reproduction of the likeness of
LVO is rightly concerned that NSW may run out of power. The problem is imminent, and it comes with a variety of risks. I’ve created a single master chart to illustrate these issues. This includes data centre demand. The three largest risks are further delays to Snowy Hydro 2.0, Central-West Orana transmission community resistance, and
The Australian has reported on the “unprecedented” demand for data centres in Sydney, which are growing at a “rapid pace”. 20 GW of connection enquiries have been lodged — double NSW’s current peak demand. However, Western Sydney’s transmission network has “limited remaining capacity”. Transgrid, Australia’s largest electricity transmission company, warns of “reliability issues and supply constraints”
You wouldn’t know it from headline prices, but iron ore is in trouble. Subtracting the $9, at least, to get to normal FOB prices, owing to shipping rates that are double the normal level, gives us low-90s prices for CFR. Iron ore has not budged for three months. The news flow is poor. The latest
The August NAB Business Survey, which is based on responses from 24 to 31 August, was released on Tuesday, with conditions turning negative and falling to their lowest level since the pandemic as profitability collapses. Business confidence also fell in response and remains deeply negative. Falling profitability was the primary driver of the deterioration in
