Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Six months before the 2022 federal election, Anthony Albanese waxed lyrical about how a Labor government would tackle housing affordability: Albanese said that “Australians who work-full time should be able to afford a house or cover the rent”. “20 years ago, the average home cost 4 times the average salary. Now it’s more than 7
The housing industry and YIMBYs argue that Australia’s shortage of housing could be solved by rezoning our cities for greater densities, thereby allowing apartments to be built in the ‘missing middle’ of our cities. However, their simplistic claims ignore the fact that construction costs have soared by around 40% since the beginning of the pandemic:
Asian stock markets are again very mixed with a poor lead from Wall Street overnight not helping, neither is the impact of the latest PBOC rate cut with very little for risk markets to go on. Futures are indicating a flat or lower start for European stocks which are likely to be muted again without
Tonight I will be appearing on DFA Live with Martin North from 8.00pm AEST, where we will discuss everything to do with the housing market and economy. The YouTube feed is below. I hope to see you there.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s ultra-aggressive monetary tightening successfully disarmed the nation’s housing bubble, fully unwinding the explosive value gains recorded over the pandemic. As illustrated in the following charts from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro, New Zealand home values have fully retraced back to early 2020 levels in real inflation-adjusted terms after experiencing
JPM notes that markets are pricing for Trump trades. 1. All in on Trump Themes? Hedge Fund flows have shown a strong preference for Republican themes with Rep Winners (JPREPWIN) bought over the past few weeks, putting positioning near ~2yr highs, while Dem Winners (JPDEMWIN) were sold throughout the year and positioning at multi-year low. The relative Rep
Wherever the Grattan Institute appears, captured industry propaganda follows: It’s more than a year since Daniel Andrews, in one of his last acts as premier, set a target for Victoria to build 800,000 new homes by the end of the decade. Now the Allan government, with its plans to upzone for more housing around 50 train and
You have got to love it. Via ANZ: Concerns are building that a rise in uncontracted LNG exports from Australia are creating shortages in the east coast gas market. LNG producers currently expect to have 15 PJ of uncontracted gas in the first quarter of 2025, the same amount that is needed to refill the
Escalating costs are arguably the greatest barrier to meeting the Albanese government’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years. The Urban Development Institute of Australia’s (UDIA) 2024 State of the Land report showed that Greater Sydney’s median lot price was $641,250 as of Q4 2023, Greater Melbourne’s was $394,250, South-East Queensland’s was $374,250, Perth’s
Former ACCC chairman Allan Fels and transport expert David Cousins released a report earlier in the year complaining about Transurban’s exploitation of Sydney motorists. The report also called for the NSW government to retake control of the state’s toll roads. Transurban owns 11 of New South Wales’ 13 toll roads, each negotiated under a separate
According to PropTrack, Western Australian home values have risen the most since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, rising by 78%: A boom in investors has driven part of this price increase. The following chart from PropTrack shows that the number of loan commitments to investors surged by 42% in the 12 months
It was exciting for the day. Goldman: The PBOC delivered 25bp cuts to both the 1-year and 5-year LPR today (Oct 21st) from 3.35%/3.85% to 3.1%/3.6%. The move was a small dovish surprise as the 25bp cuts align with the upper end of the 20-25bp range mentioned by the PBOC governor previously (vs. Bloomberg median
SHFE and SGX parted ways in the last 24 hours: Mad Dalian was thumped overnight: Near term, the steel market is still enjoying improved conditions: Daily average hot metal output gained for a seventh straight week, rising 0.5% to 2.34 million tons as of Oct. 18, while profitability climbed for the eighth consecutive week to
The Greens have cancelled the King: Greens deputy leader Mehreen Faruqi says she will sit out today’s parliamentary reception for King Charles and Queen Camilla, and that she hopes the royal tour is their last visit to Australia. Faruqi says Labor’s move to ditch plans for a new republic referendum is a failure. Once a
A night without significant economic data or other macro cataylsts has seen risk markets pull back across the complex, with only tech stocks leading the NASDAQ slightly higher while the USD continued its surge against the undollars. Euro and the Australian dollar were hammered yet again, with the former almost breaking below the 1.08 level
Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released a stronger-than-expected employment report, with 64,000 jobs created in September (51,600 full-time), a 0.1% decline in the nation’s unemployment rate, and record participation and employment-to-population rates. The strong result prompted interest rate traders to push back their expected timing of the first Reserve Bank of Australia
DXY is an unstoppable rocket: AUD is a scorched stool: CNY keeps being rewarded for cutting rates: Oil stuffed. Is gold noise or signal? If it is the latter, is it discounting American election violence? Commods crushed under DXY: Miners too: And EM: Junk anxiety is creeping in: As yields jackknife: Stocks have discounted nothing
CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index shows that Sydney home values have recorded zero growth over the past 28 days, as illustrated below: Final auction clearance rates have fallen sharply across Sydney, pulling down prices. SQM Research managing director and founder, Louis Christopher, believes that last weekend’s auction results were the weakest since 2022, despite CoreLogic
Asian stock markets were somewhat mixed as the new trading week got underway as the PBOC joined the rate cut brigade with an expected cut to prime lending rates today while the RBA seemed to have reiterated its stubborn stance going into the end of the calendar year. Wall Street and European stocks are likely
ABC News’ David Taylor posted the message below on Twitter (X), lamenting that Australia is only building around 165,000 dwellings a year, well below the 240,000 needed to address the housing crisis. “Where does that leave us?”, asked Taylor. Taylor’s concerns are justified. Only 158,750 dwellings commenced construction in the 2023-24 financial year, 81,250 (34%)
Sydney faces an impossible housing conundrum. Last week, Mirvac chief executive Campbell Hannan told a Citi investment conference panel that “there’s just not enough builders to build the homes because they’re busy with all the [government infrastructure work]”. NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey agreed, telling the conference that big infrastructure projects divert labour from housing construction.
There were only ever two reasons to read Crikey. Guy Rundle and Bernard Keane. Everything else is toilet paper. Now there is one reason: Crikey’s correspondent-at-large Guy Rundle has been sacked after he sent a text to ABC Radio saying sexual assault complaints have gone up because “every grope is now a sexual assault”. Guardian
Once again, the Origin Energy-sponsored Grattan Institute is busy trying to divert every possible dollar into the East Coast gas export cartel. Its latest willing victim? The always ready for vested interests AFR: As a new Climate Change and Energy Minister, Chris Bowen was reluctant to embrace the notion that gas would still have a
In late May, Judo Bank chief economist Warren Hogan projected that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would raise the official cash rate three times by the end of this year. It was an overly hawkish projection that the bulk of Australia’s economists disagreed with. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) stronger-than-expected employment report from last
Goldman on Samta. “1 Trillion” – I am using these words too frequently these days… Stock certificates are a scarce commodity. Today is peak US corporate blackout window and this flow-of-funds dynamic start to improve materially next week. 1. US Corporates are the largest net buyer of US equities in 2024 and are ready to
