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International Reading: Oil Prices Are So Bad That Trump Considers Lifting Sanctions on Iran – New Republic Trump drives national debt to a staggering $39 trillion nearly double first term – The Mirror $39 trillion national debt is “an embarrassing milestone,” think tank says. “Clearly headed in the wrong direction” – Fortune Jerome Powell says
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, examined whether Donald Trump can “escape” the Middle East — unpacking the economic fallout from the Iran conflict, from surging oil prices and disrupted supply chains to rising geopolitical risk, and asking whether the so-called TACO trade can still deliver a market rebound or
In early 2024, Canada was experiencing its worst-ever rental crisis, driven by record immigration-driven population growth. The electorate was angry, and the incumbent centre-left Liberal government implemented sweeping immigration cuts to stabilise the population and ease pressures on housing and infrastructure, alongside rebalancing the economy towards sustainable growth. The immigration reforms included reducing annual permanent-resident
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Thursday released the biannual Financial Stability Review (FSR), which reported a sharp increase in high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) mortgage lending to first home buyers. This follows the commencement of the federal government’s expanded 5% deposit scheme on 1 October 2025, which allows eligible first home buyers to take
Charts from TME. Let’s call it the slippery slope of oil doom. Just another Persian Gulf war or… Fear is deep but not yet extreme. Tech skew is suggesting massive bearishness under the bonnet. Coiled spring here if the war ends. Puts not extreme for S&P yet. Volatility is a bit of a yawn in
We received the clearest indication this week that the Victorian Labor government is cooked, with the Victorian Branch of the Australian Education Union (AEU), which is usually in Labor’s pocket, electing to strike next week over pay. The union argues that Victorian public school staff are now among the lowest‑paid in Australia and that the
Always fighting the last war, Albo’s cowards are talking about doing stuff in May. After Anthony Albanese’s department reportedly requested Treasury modelling on a windfall tax on gas company profits, Mr Bowen said any levy introduced in the budget was a matter for Treasurer Jim Chalmers. “The budget day is in May and the Treasurer will announce the budget. But
This week, the Australian Treasury released monthly and quarterly data showing that net migration into Australia has rebounded and remains at historically high levels: The following chart shows that in the first 3.25 years of the Albanese government, NOM averaged a whopping 1,145. This was well above the 610 daily average under the former Coalition
The chart below of US manufacturing jobs may become very important. The point I wish to make is not, actually, about manufacturing. Rather, it is about what happens when a structural trend meets a cyclical accident. In this chart, the structural trend was China’s entry into the WTO in 2003. This happened to coincide with
Albo’s cowards won’t tell you the truth even with a gun to their heads. But it’s coming out anyway because this is a problem Canberra scum can’t hide. Malaysia, the country’s top supplier of crude and third-largest source of petrol and diesel, has warned shipments to Australia could be disrupted if the conflict in the
When the Gallipoli campaign was first conceived of during the First World War by First Lord of the Admiralty Winston Churchill, it was seen as a bold but viable plan to knock the Ottoman Empire out of the war and allow the Entente to focus its forces more heavily on the Western Front. What followed
Earlier this week, we received monthly net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which recorded the highest January figure and the highest annual growth on record: NPLT arrivals are determined by the intended duration of stay as indicated on passenger cards, and they are not adjusted for the
The Albanese government’s fantastical target of building 1.2 million dwellings over five years is centred on delivering a boom in high-rise towers that is even bigger than the one experienced between 2015 and 2020. The Victorian Allan government has approved new height limits for high-rise development across 25 Melbourne suburbs, allowing developers to begin planning
Gold is printing an ominous double top and sitting on some meaty supports. This raises the question, why doesn’t the gold safe haven hold up-during crises? The answer is that a safe haven such as gold is generally held as a hedge against debasement of forex. When a crisis hits, liquidity dries up and DXY
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released the February labour force report, which recorded a rise in the headline unemployment rate to 4.3% (up from 4.1% in January) despite the creation of 48,900 jobs over the month: However, monthly hours worked declined by 0.2%, suggesting the jobs data isn’t as strong as it appears.
I believe that in their desperation, the American people turned to a man that they did not understand. Donald Trump is a pure toxic narcissist. So far in his time in the limelight, this has expressed itself through headline-grabbing stunts of increasing magnitude. Each was, and must be, larger than the last. Not just to
On 1 October 2025, the Albanese government launched its expanded 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers, with: Unlimited places for first‑home buyers No income caps Higher property price caps No Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI) Prior to expansion, the government reported that more than 185,000 Australians had been supported into home ownership through earlier versions
DXY is threatening to break out as oil passes $110. AUD cannot hold up here if this continues. JPY is in freefall. China will be next as EM stocks reverse violently. Never trust gold in a crisis. It nearly always tanks. Oil is filling the $120 gap. It remains my view that it could go
One Nation has achieved what nobody thought was possible: the highest percentage share of primary voters in NSW from any party: This latest polling result follows late-February Roy Morgan polling, which showed that One Nation’s primary vote was 30%, ahead of Labor at 25% and the Coalition at 19%. NSW Premier Chris Minns has previously
Literally exploded. Iran has threatened to attack oil and gas facilities in the Gulf region in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its South Pars gasfield as the fallout from the United States-Israeli war on the country continues to escalate. Israel bombed the Iranian gas field because it supplies 20% of Iran’s power. None of this gas
As we know, China has banned refined fuel shipments, restricting the world’s supply. Overnight, Korea capped exports at 2020 levels, and Thailand banned them. As well, Singapore refinery runs have begun to wane, with capacity utilisation down meaningfully from 20-50% as it runs out of oil. These shortages have not even arrived in Australia yet,
Author Mark Twain once famously said, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes”. We are witnessing such an event following the RBA’s back-to-back interest rate hikes, which have taken the official cash rate to 4.10%. The interest rate futures market has also priced two additional rate hikes for 2026, which would take the official
Via TME, “markets are not crashing, they’re grinding. Hedging structures are failing, not because risk is low, but because the move is too slow. As volatility forces de-grossing, positions shrink and hedges get unwound, creating mechanical buying that cushions the downside. Flows, not fundamentals, are driving the market.”. Morgan Stanley finds a quanty parallel. At
New Nationals leader Matt Canavan is proposing income splitting for couples with dependent children — allowing them to combine their total income and divide it evenly for tax purposes. Under Canavan’s proposal, couples with dependent children could pool their total income. The ATO would then tax each partner on half of the combined amount. This mirrors systems
