Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
With the release of the latest Newspoll, One Nation’s rise in the world of Australian federal politics has been emphatically confirmed, putting to bed any ideas that this was a temporary boost due to polling seasonality or the immediate aftermath of the Bondi terrorist attack. According to Newspoll, One Nation is now polling a primary
The Albanese government’s Housing Accord target of building 1.2 million homes over five years has fallen well behind. The Housing Accord commenced on 1 July 2024 and requires the construction of 240,000 homes over five years to meet the target. As of the September quarter of 2025, only 219,000 dwellings had completed construction, 27% fewer
The Crime Statistics Agency’s 2024-25 crime statistics revealed that Victoria saw a record high of 483,000 criminal incidents over the financial year. Victoria Police also reported that just 5,400 repeat offenders accounted for 40% of the state’s total crime. Car theft is one area where crime has surged in Victoria. In 2024-25, the number of
I have not posted about our old mate Drew Pavlou for three years, but he has earned another mention. Having first come to fame fighting the CCP’s quiet invasion of our universities in 2019, Mr Pavlou has morphed into a consistent protest presence attacking the fake left. Roughly a year ago, this morphed into a
Last week, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to lift the official cash rate (OCR) by 0.25%, Treasurer Jim Chalmers claimed that excessive private sector demand was behind Australia’s high inflation. In a media release directly following the RBA’s decision, Treasurer Chalmers said “the Boardâs statement today does not mention government spending. It
Charts from TME. There are a lot of wild moves closing out the week. JPM gross hammered. Huge shorts. Social media sentiment collapsed. Volatility spiked. However, instos are still all-in with no cash. Equities, equities, equities! Leverage is virtually unchanged. While Michael Hartnett’s risk monitor remains in extreme sell. Where there has been progress under
In 2003, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its Population Projections 2002 to 2101, which contained a baseline (Series B) forecast for Australia’s population of 26.4 million by 2051, based on an assumed net overseas migration (NOM) of 100,000 annually. The following table illustrates the ABS’s 2003 population projections for Australia’s capital cities: Sydney
Australia will need to find a sugar daddy because the Chinese version has lost its mojo. New property sales are terrible to start the year. The secondary market is, at least, showing some signs that panic selling is over, with lower transaction volumes, but prices are still falling. Consumer confidence is precisely where you would
Over the coming decades, Australia will require a massive expansion in electricity supplies. First, the nation’s population is officially projected to grow by nearly 50% over the next 40 years, implying a commensurate increase in household energy requirements (in addition to commercial). Second, Australia is expected to build dozens, if not hundreds, of data centres
Over the weekend, the Coalition got the band back together just in time to tear it apart. Angus Taylor’s supporters are expected to use the dismal polling figures to push for a spill of the Liberal leadership this week. Newspoll reports that the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen to 18%, while One Nation’s voter support
Back in 2020, China exported around 1 million vehicles, well behind the automotive powerhouses of South Korea, Japan, and Germany, and not too dissimilar to where exports stood at the start of the 2010s. Then in 2021, things began to change extremely rapidly. The pace of Chinese car exports began an absolutely meteoric rise, rapidly
The ferrous jaws are closing on a monthly basis. There’s more work to do on the daily chart, but clearly, we are getting there. Scuttlebut is weak. âIron oreâs own supply-demand fundamentals remain weak,â said Steven Yu, a researcher at consultancy Mysteel. Hot-metal output at mills had been slower that expected before the week-long holiday
Australian housing has never been this expensive. According to Cotality’s latest housing affordability report, the nation’s median dwelling price was valued at a record 8.2 times median household income in the September quarter of 2025, up from 6.4 times the median income in the September quarter of 2019. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) also
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to hike the official cash rate by 0.25% last week has failed to dampen buyer enthusiasm in the housing market. According to Cotality, the nation’s preliminary auction clearance rate rose to 73.7%, up from 69.7% last weekend. It was also significantly higher than the 64.2% preliminary clearance rate
All of a sudden, the planets have aligned. Something both sides of Australian politics have been able to shunt off into the âpolitically too hardâ basket for much of a generation is now eminently doable. All that is required is data, some integrity in interpreting that data, and the political cojones to stand and deliver.
Despite the strong prospects of an interest rate hike, the nation’s final auction clearance rate bounced last weekend. Cotality recorded a final clearance rate of 66.4% last weekend, up from 57.1% in mid-December and 59.4% at the same time last year. Melbourne’s final clearance rate was 63.7% last week, up from 58.4% and 58.6% at
International Reading: Survey: 43% of Americans Don’t Have Savings to Pay for a $1,000 Emergency – US News Employers announce most job cuts since 2009 as economy wobbles – USA Today Warren to call for reversal of Trump’s UAE chip sales after ‘Spy Sheikh’ revelations – CNBC Trump is giving the U.S. economy a $65
Yes, this is my last post at MacroBusiness…see more below but first the final roundup of today’s markets: Its been a tough day on local markets with the ASX200 slumping while the nexus of the AI bubble on Wall Street, the Trump regime’s warmongering in Iran, a snap election in Japan and the latest US
Charts from TME. Semiconductors are threatening to follow software down as the NDX washout gathers momentum. To call the semis trade crowded doesn’t quite say it. Software doom is at hand. Overnight, Goldman declared the sector the new “Newspapers”. “Historical episodes of major disruption risk suggest that share price stabilization will require stability in the
The Victorian government has introduced a suite of tax increases and new levies that significantly raise holding costs for investorsâprimarily through lower landâtax thresholds, expanded vacantâresidentialâland taxes, and new shortâstay levies. These changes mean more investors now pay land tax, and those who already paid are paying more. Therefore, holding costs for investment properties have
As we enter the Chinese Year of the Horse, which signifies dynamism, energy, and freedom, ANZ believes that Chinese growth is entering a new era. While such an assumption is okay in theory, the notion that Chinese growth is about to rise is pretty laughable to me. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is notoriously difficult to
The State of Queensland is running large operating deficits, averaging 3.2% of operating revenue between FY25âFY27. The operating deficit is expected to peak at nearly 6% in FY26. Deficits after capital spending are extremely large: 17â20% of revenue through FY27. A return to operating surplus is not expected until FY28. S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Queenslandâs AA+
Following the resumption of rate rises from the RBA earlier this week, many Australians have been left wondering how things went so badly wrong that the RBA has needed to raise rates only a year after it started cutting them, despite the prior rate rise cycle delivering the largest relative rise in mortgage rates in
Regional Australia should be alarmed by the latest long-term projections from the Centre for Population, which risk tilting the nation’s power balance further in the cities’ favour. To recap, the Centre for Population’s 2025 Population Statement projects that the nation’s population will grow by 3,860,000 over the 11 years to 2035â36, with most (80%) of
DXY is back and showing no signs of fatigue. The AUD looks like a man clinging to the edge of a cliff. It has overshot its CNY sponsor. The Japan problem is back. Gold puked again. Copper longs must be feeling it. AI metals are in free fall. Big mining parabola goes “pop”. EM down.
