Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Twelve years of Labor government have completely destroyed Victoria’s finances. When the Andrews government took office in late 2014, Victoria’s net debt was only around $20 billion. Today it is more than $165 billion and is forecast to hit around $200 billion by the end of the decade. The per capita level of state debt
TME with a big roundup of equity charts. Soggy tech, Russell revived The market is starting to look very different beneath the surface. Nasdaq remains trapped in its trading range, tech volatility continues to command a substantial premium, and CDS stress refuses to disappear. Meanwhile, Russell has staged an impressive comeback, reclaiming its 200-day moving
In the years prior to the pandemic, Victoria came far closer to living up to the slogan which one emblazoned its number plates ‘The Place To Be’, than it does today. In 2018-19, it had the fastest growing rate of Gross State Product per capita of any of the major states, running at a rate
Gas reservation, such as it is, has finally arrived. A plan to ease power bills by pumping the Australian energy market with an oversupply of gas will now likely become law despite lingering concerns from industry and environmentalists. Labor’s domestic gas reservation scheme will force producers to set aside 20 per cent of their annual
The Albanese government is trying to censor debate via its Digital Duty of Care Bill, which would make the eSafety Commissioner the central regulator with significantly expanded powers to police what we say online. In a doorstop address at Parliament House on Thursday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the Digital Duty of Care Bill
DXY is still chopping wood while EUR tries. AUD has North Asian support. The twins keep dooming it up. Metals are serene. Miners not so much. EM is a concern. But junk is trying it on. As the long bond rallies. Stocks are confused. US growth was good in Q3, driven by AI capex to
War headlines today. Iran bombs 4 tankers. Houthis bomb Riyadh again. Russian diesel exports resume as Ukraine stops refinery attacks. Israel in political deadlock, Brent was up and diesel was down as cracks narrowed. LNG is a rocket. The Dem sweep odds firmed, even as diesel eased. RBC weighs in. While Democrats are favored to
In April this year, Professor Bruce Mountain and former energy executive Ted Woodley warned that Snowy Hydro 2.0 could ultimately cost $42 billion, comprising direct construction costs of $20 billion, transmission infrastructure costs totalling $12 billion and interest charges of $8 billion over 15 years: They said that Snowy 2.0 was a “dreadful idea” from the
Sydney’s housing correction has reached a new milestone, with dwelling values down 10% from their 6 March 2026 peak, according to Cotality’s daily dwelling values index. Sydney’s current decline of 10% ranks below the record 12.9% peak-to-trough fall recorded between June 2017 and May 2019, when the banking Royal Commission, APRA’s curbs on investor mortgage
Over the past decade, taxpayers have heavily subsidised virtually every large-scale renewable project undertaken in Australia. To meet the federal government’s 82% renewable energy target (RET), Australia must retire most of its current coal fleet and replace it with about 6–7 GW of new large-scale renewable generation annually, along with several gigawatts of storage. However,
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, digs into the financial mess behind AI’s problem children — from mounting debt and soaring infrastructure costs to delayed data centres and projects being put on hold. We examine what the troubles at companies like CoreWeave and NEXTDC reveal about the risks beneath the
I almost admire Andrew Forrest today. Andrew Forrest wants diesel gone from Fortescue’s Pilbara mines by 2028, as the mining magnate lashed US President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin for pushing up the cost of living for Australians. Speaking at Fortescue’s annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday, Dr Forrest said both Australia’s mining industry and
ABC 7.30 Report ran a segment on how Australia’s rental crisis is forcing tenants into group accommodation and other sub-optimal living arrangements to save on costs. “Real estate agents say these tight markets are pushing some renters beyond the city limits or into new living arrangements”, reporters Nicole Hegarty and Courtney Bembridge said. “The suburbs
Westpac’s credit card tracker is powering. The Westpac–DataX Card Tracker Index* has edged down slightly since late September, slipping 0.9pts to 160.6 in the week ended October 17. Despite this, growth in activity continues to track a robust pace with quarterly momentum running at close to 2%qtr and annual growth at 6%yr. Some of this
In May 2023, the Albanese government announced changes to Australia’s Working Holiday Maker (WHM) Program and the UK’s Youth Mobility Scheme as part of the Australia-UK Free Trade Agreement (AUKFTA). Below are the specific changes: From 1 July 2023, UK passport holders will be able to apply for a Working Holiday visa between the ages
But not the central banker’s test. DXY is down as the FOMC refused to hike into face-ripping inflation. AUD popped. There’s a short squeeze risk here for all those nervous fundies. The twins remain in doom mode. Growth is back. EM is stepping back from the brink. Junk toys with the end of the war.
Latest war headlines. Netanyahu 58 seats. Eisenkot 48 seats. Arab parties 19 seats. First to 61 wins. Eisenkot stii favourite. Iran tells Mecca, US attack will destroy them. Trump says US attack post-midterms is on the table. Brent and cracks bounced. Physical markets are still tight. LNG to the moon. It would make sense for
Through academia, the halls of power and elements of social media there is a often a common narrative thread, the idea that everything is okay enough and that whatever criticism may actually be valid is largely derived from the mistakes and policy choices from those on the other side of the political and ideological divide.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has hiked the official cash rate four times this year to a 15-year high of 4.60%. As a result, Australia now has the second-highest official policy rate in the advanced world, behind Iceland. Despite the RBA’s aggressive rate hikes, Australia’s inflation problem continues to worsen. On Wednesday, the Australian
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September 2026. The key movements are illustrated below: Headline CPI rose by 4.3% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 4.0% in the 12 months to August. Housing was the largest contributor to annual inflation in September, rising by
TME on the crash under the boom. The great volatility disconnect Something unusual is happening beneath the surface of equities. Defensive sectors are showing bubble-like behavior, US earnings moves keep exceeding what options price in, and Europe is paying up for volatility that rarely materializes. Meanwhile, the semiconductor washout is creating interesting upside opportunities, while
Six months ago, Perth’s housing market looked impervious to a house price correction, with values continuing to grow at a solid pace. The tables have well and truly turned, with Perth’s dwelling values now falling at the equal fastest pace among the major capital cities, down by 1.7% over the past month, according to Cotality.
Ferrous prices are in free fall, led by hot-rolled coil, a bad sign for hot metal output. Iron ore is at new two-year lows. But not quite if you normalise freight rates. Mid-October CISA data was soft again. Even so, inventories rose. Steel output is very shitty. Deteriorating profitability among Chinese steelmakers has further weighed
The Victorian budget is drowning in debt. Net debt is forecast to hit $200 billion by the end of the decade: Credit ratings agency Moody’s recently forecast that the state would spend $1 of every $10 of revenue earned on interest payments by the end of the decade: Wages are the Victorian budget’s largest expense.
DXY looks ready for more bounce. That said, with France calming down, EUR could do it instead. The twins have death-crossed. As soon as oil eases, the growth party resumes. Not so obvious for EM. But screamingly so for junk. As duration rallies. Stocks to the moon! It’s not exactly complex. What is a little
