Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Just when you thought it might be safe to assume he had a brain, no. Anthony Albanese has assured existing gas contracts would not be affected by any decision to impose a new tax on exports as he and his Malaysian counterpart Anwar Ibrahim promised to keep supplying each other with essential energy products on a âno
Charts from TME. Nothing matters…for now Flows are in control, and nothing else seems to matter. Oil, volatility, macro â all getting ignored as mechanical buying keeps pushing markets higher. But under the surface, things are getting stretched, and the setup is becoming more fragile. This works⊠until it doesnât. Who cares about oil? The
In the final auction weekend before the US-Israeli war with Iran began, Sydney produced its weakest early-March result since SQM Research’s records began in early 2020. Amidst a weak clearance rate result of 45.9%, SQM Research Managing Director Louis Christopher concluded on X (formerly known as Twitter) that: “Just calling it straight – this is
ANZ leads us off. It argues that the damage to consumption from fuel price hikes is material. According to the most recent ABS data available (2019â20), families consume about 77% of automobile gasoline and 29% of automotive diesel, which combined account for about 53% of Australia’s total automotive petroleum use (by volume). In 2025, Australian
As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, New Zealand home values have fallen by more than 30% in real inflation-adjusted terms, back to 2019 levels: The latest house price results from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) recorded a second consecutive monthly gain, rising by 0.3% in March. However, house sales
Chinese steel exports are down 10% in Q1. Early February, CISA steel output finally bounced a bit, but is still down 6.2% YTD. Inventories climbed as a result. China also recently lifted all BHP bans, likely due to the Iranian war, so we can expect accumulation to resume at Chinese ports soon. Official Chinese data
The Trumpgod is positive. President Donald Trump says the US and Iran could clinch a permanent ceasefire, with talks between Washington and Tehran possibly resuming this weekend. Trump claims Iran has agreed to terms including giving up ambitions for a nuclear weapon and turning over nuclear material, but Tehran has not publicly confirmed these concessions.
Last month, Louis Christopher, the founder of the property analytics firm SQM Research, published updated home price forecasts for 2026, presented below. As you can see, SQM Research’s base-case forecast for Sydney and Melbourne is that both cities will record dwelling price declines of -1% to -6% in 2026. However, this base case was built
This week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released data on net permanent & long-term (NPLT) arrivals, which remained at historically high levels in February 2026. In the year to February, 479,000 NPLT arrivals landed in Australia, a whisker below the all-time high level of 498,000 recorded two years prior in February 2024. The latest
According to the CBA HSI, Australian household spending rose strongly in March, increasing 2.9% after a February dip, largely driven by a sharp rise in fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions. Transport spending jumped 22.9%, accounting for over half the monthly increase, while overall spending still grew 1.0% excluding transport, with gains across all
In this weekâs podcast, we’re unpacking what some are calling âTrumpâs carbon taxâ â exploring how Donald Trumpâs escalation with Iran is driving oil prices higher, why those energy shocks act like an implicit tax on consumers and businesses, and what this tightening energy backdrop means for markets, inflation, and investor positioning. Download presentation slides
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released its labour force report for March, which showed no adverse impacts from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary tightening nor the global energy shock. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.3% in March, with the number of employed people rising by 18,000, driven by a
Since the 1970s oil shocks, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has mandated that members maintain 90 days of net crude oil reserves. As explained by The AFR’s Phil Coorey, Australia’s stockpiles began to decline after Labor lost power in 2013. During the Coalition government’s tenure, four of Australia’s remaining six refineries shut down because they
Australia’s gas fight is turning into a life-and-death brawl. One of the most egregious lobbies in Australia has weighed in: the Business Council. Structural shortfalls of approximately 12 petajoules on the east coast and 4 petajoules on the west coast are also forecast from the end of this decade. To put this in perspective, the
Charts for TME. Now what? From squeeze to chase – now what? SPX is back at highs, but the character of the move is shifting. What began as forced buying is now turning into chasing, with vols firming and positioning getting crowded again. This is where things get more complicated. LSEG Workspace Terrific tech NASDAQ
We don’t get another official release of CPI data until the end of the month, but some private surveys are already ripping higher. The Melbourne Institute monthly gauge printed its highest ever monthly blowout of 1.3% Mom and 4.2% Yoy headline. The NAB survey was equally bad for input costs, though it looks like businesses
The situation continues to worsen for Australian tenants. The latest data from Cotality shows that advertised rents nationally have soared by 48% since the end of 2019, adding around $11,700 to the annual cost of renting. Cotality’s data also shows that the number of homes listed for rent across the combined capital cities is tracking
Day two of God Trump’s Iran blockade, and it is the worst it has been. Bad-faith “negotiations” have, however, brought down dated Brent, as further negotiations may happen. This is particularly stark given news that the US will not renew either Iranian or Russian oil sanctions waivers by the end of this week, taking still
As much of the world attempts to come to terms with what, by some metrics, is the largest interruption to global oil supplies in history, much of the emphasis from analysts and geopolitical commentators has been on China. Given that China is by far the largest recipient of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz,
The Albanese government continues to import people into Australia at a furious rate, with 96,110 net permanent and long-term (NPLT) arrivals in February, the third-strongest February result on record, behind 2025 (111,740) and 2024 (105,460). Over the year to February 2026, 478,910 NPLT arrivals landed in Australia, down from the all-time peaks of 498,270 recorded
Bloomie. Western Australia will establish its own strategic reserves of diesel fuel to ease âacute shortages,â the stateâs government said. The government signed a deal with Cambridge Gulf Ltd. to buy and store 4 million liters of diesel, which is expected to arrive in the coming weeks, according to a statement. The inventory may be expanded to 12
A week or so ago, Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi made the unexpected announcement that she would be travelling to Australia by the end of the month. Clearly, her visit is part of an intensifying diplomatic frenzy across Asia to secure energy supplies. Yet, the arrival of Japan’s political gojeerah has special significance for both countries.
TME with the charts. Complacency is back Panic gone. Volatility crushed. Complacency back. The flip SPX futures are nearing the 7k level, with range highs just above. Downside panic has flipped into upside chasing, while vols have reset to pre-war levels. Chart 2 (SPX vs. VIX, inverted) shows the gap has narrowed materially from peak
Tobacco excise has increased by over 60% since 2020, accounting for more than two-thirds of the legal cost of a pack of cigarettes. While illegal cigarettes are widely available and cost between $10 and $15 per pack of 20, a legal pack of cigarettes currently costs $40 or more. As a result, despite increasing taxes,
Roy Morgan with the news. Overall Australian unemployment and under-employment at 3.4 million in March; âReal Unemploymentâ at 1.69 million In March 2026, Australian ârealâ unemployment dropped 28,000 to 1,693,000 (10.5% of the workforce, down 0.1%), and under-employment dropped 205,000 to 1,687,000 (down 1.2% to 10.4%). Given the data is not seasonally adjusted, the only
