Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The analysis from CEDA argues that Australians are experiencing a renewed rise in economic hardship, with the country’s “misery index” returning to near post-pandemic highs after all improvements since 2023 were reversed. The main drivers are persistent inflation, higher interest rates and a gradually weakening labour market. However, unlike the 2010s, unemployment is no longer
Goldman isn’t terribly comforting. AI Productivity-Unemployment Link: 1% AI-driven productivity gain → 0.3-0.4pp temporary unemployment peak (fading in 2 years), with gross job losses (0.5-0.6pp) and hiring drag (0.2pp) driving displacement. Services Sector Correlation: US services industry shows statistically significant negative relationship: unemployment rate = -2 × AI adoption + 4.20 (t-stat=4.20), employment growth =
The private credit market, which has grown to around $200 billion in assets, has become a key lender to developers as traditional banks pull back from construction lending due to tightening risk appetites. However, the recent collapse of property developer Bathla Group has thrown the sector into disarray, and “the golden age of private credit
The Pilbara killer is eating Fortescue. This is from its quarterly update yesterday. Iron ore sales of 42.9Mt were below shipments, reflecting impacts from ongoing negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG). Hematite C1 unit cost of US$21.98/wet metric tonne (wmt) in Q1 FY27. Higher diesel prices increased C1 unit costs by approximately US$1.40/wmt relative
New University of Melbourne vice chancellor Carolyn Evans told The Melbourne Assembly, hosted by The Age and the University of Melbourne, that the federal government’s efforts to reduce the number of international student arrivals were “arrogant and short-sighted”. Evans’ comments are in response to the Albanese government’s pledge to curb net migration by reducing visas
DXY eased overnight. Notably, it did not surge as a safe haven as everything fell apart. I still think it will. AUD held up with EUR. North Asia is also support. Don’t say I didn’t warn you as gold joins the crash. Oil to the moon, delivering a growth shock! This is increasingly corroborated by
Via S&P. Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index: 47.7 Index, sa, >50 = growth m/m % qr/qr (Sep: 51.3) Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index: 47.8 (Sep: 51.9) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI: 49.7 (Sep: 49.6) Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI Output Index: 46.5 (Sep: 46.2) October’s ‘flash’ PMI® data from S&P Global indicated a fresh
War headlines today. Iran says it bombed seven tankers in 24 hours. US says it is making it up. Houthis bomb Shaybah oilfield. Libyan oil flows disrupted by technical problems. The Madman shock is here. Dated Brent is roaring again. Brent futures and diesel cracks are too. Whether Iran is actually bombing anything doesn’t matter.
In my 15 years covering the housing market at MacroBusiness, I have never seen housing conditions as weak as they are now. According to Cotality, monthly sales volumes have now been lower than a year earlier for nine consecutive months, with September’s sales tracking 20.9% below the same time last year: Meanwhile, listings are piling
Two months ago, the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) released its 2026-27 National Fiscal Outlook, which forecast that net debt would continue to rise in the coming years: The PBO also forecast that the share of government revenue spent on interest costs would rise steadily from around 4.1% in 2024‑25 to 6.2% by 2029‑30, “reflecting the combined
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, examines whether CoreWeave could be the canary in the coal mine for the AI boom — as mounting debt, soaring borrowing costs, and questions over future returns put pressure on one of the industry’s key infrastructure providers. We unpack what its troubles reveal about
This is bloody awful. Federal MPs have been advised to vary their daily travel patterns, including the route they take to work, as one of a series of precautions re-emphasised during a rolling set of security briefings on Wednesday. The briefings occurred as Phil Haines, the husband of Helen Haines, announced his wife of 40
The Melbourne Assembly, hosted by The Age and the University of Melbourne, is underway, and “world-leading urbanist” Professor Carlos Moreno reportedly told the Assembly that “the concept of a 15-minute city was “absolutely possible” for Melbourne, as it hurtles towards a population of 9 million people by 2050”. “Moreno, who pioneered the idea of a
TME with the charts. Sell low, buy high Despite all the AI crash narratives, NDX remains trapped in the same range that has been in place since May. Chasing momentum at range extremes, in either direction, continues to punish traders. The agony of selling the lows and buying the highs lives on. Source: LSEG Workspace
The Department of Home Affairs (DHA) has released temporary visa data for the September quarter of 2026, which suggests that net overseas migration (NOM) into Australia continues to moderate. There were 2.57 million temporary visas on issue (excluding visitors and crew), the highest level on record for a September quarter: The following chart plots the
DXY is chopping wood as it clears an overbought condition. I don’t think this is a reversal. AUD has rebounded from its oversold position. It still has CNY support. The twins are crossing. Not a good sign. Metals are still OK about growth. Miners are not. Nor EM stocks. As junk looks very nervous. Long
War headlines today: Iran bombs more tankers. Houthis bomb more Saudi refineries. US pulls diplomats from region. Russia cosies up to Trump. Dated Brent is climbing again. Brent futures and cracks were roughly unchanged. Iran’s oil on water has run out. Creating buying pressure from China. Freight rates remain supportive of high crude and product
Amid an already challenging environment for the nation’s housing market, the latest figures from Cotality suggest prospective sellers face ever greater competition to sell, even as fewer owners put their properties on the market. According to Cotality data, total listings nationally reached 145,570 in mid-October, up 19.1% from this time last year. This increase occurred
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gave an interview at Citi’s Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney on Wednesday. Hauser warned that Australia’s “inflation outlook looks materially worse than we projected in the August report”, that “inflation has been high for a very long time now”, and that “people in
TME has the setup for equities. Something has to give Nasdaq is approaching a critical crossroads. Tech is dramatically underperforming small caps, credit stress is finally catching up with equities, and volatility has surged. Yet futures positioning remains stubbornly elevated, bearish hedges are quickly unwound, and NDX continues to hold its broader trading range. With
When former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull first announced the Snowy Hydro 2.0 pumped hydro project in 2017, it was billed as a $2 billion project capable of producing 2 megawatts of power on demand and 350,000 megawatt-hours of storage by 2021. Snowy Hydro 2.0 has been delayed several times since its announcement. The last
The gas cartel is busy distracting you with complete garbage. Labor needs to answer how its gas reservation scheme will work in times when gas is abundant, Origin Energy chief executive Frank Calabria has warned, or risk killing off incentives for future supply. Labor has proposed the biggest intervention in Australia’s gas industry in decades,
Two reports suggest Australia’s residential construction market is weakening significantly amid falling prices, rising interest rates, and the federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax. Stockland, the country’s largest listed residential developer, reported its lowest level of housing inquiries in at least seven years. Higher interest rates, worsening affordability, rising construction costs
Four interest rate hikes this year have placed Australians under severe mortgage stress. Roy Morgan’s mortgage stress survey suggests the risk of mortgage stress nationally is at its highest level since early 2008, when the cash rate was above 7%. The percentage of household income spent on mortgage payments is also tracking at its highest
The latest iron ore data has stabilised. As shipping costs fall, the real CFR price has been rising. We are back to around $86. With steel prices holding steady, the recent falls in iron ore are clearly driven by supply. The latest data from Guinea shows a face-ripping week for Simandou loadings. The Pilbara killer
