Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Asian share markets have fallen across the region although Chinese shares remain resilient in the wake of the selloff on Wall Street overnight on a broader “America-off” strategy by all risk markets. Gold is heading higher faster while the USD is losing ground against all the majors yet again. Oil prices remain in flux with
When DemosAU released its latest federal polling last week, it brought a deeply unwelcome set of news for an already struggling Coalition; they were now neck and neck with One Nation for primary vote, with both parties at 23%. The transformation of the nation’s polling landscape since the election is remarkable. One Nation has seen
Cotality has a rather hopeful press release. Momentum returns to the building sector The Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) recorded a 1.0% increase in construction costs nationally over the December 2025 quarter, the strongest quarterly growth of the year. This marks a notable acceleration compared with the previous quarterly increases of 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.6%,
Charts from TME. Is there a relationship between the Japanese long end and gold? Maybe. If so, YCC would create a divorce. Gold volatility says there’s no panic yet. Same regarding speculators. CTAs are more fully invested. The miner’s leverage to prices is normal. A few overheated signs. My own view is that gold is
When an Australian major party loses a federal election, it produces an internal report, or, as elements of the media describe it, an autopsy of what went wrong and what may have been managed better. The report into the disastrous campaign and defeat of the Coalition was in its final stages when former Liberal Leader
ANZ – Consumer Confidence at Royal Morgan slumped 5.2 points to 79.3 points last week. This was the biggest weekly decline in confidence since the RBA raised the cash rate to 3.35% in February 2023. After a modest recovery following the implementation of Stage 3 tax cuts in July 2024, consumer confidence has recently fallen
In 2012, the Gillard government declared that the 21st century would be the “Asian Century”, and produced a White Paper detailing its expectations for how things would play out, entitled “Australia in the Asian Century”. It included expectations such as a baseline scenario predicting China would grow at 7% each year from 2012 to 2025,
Human beings! So vulnerable, venal and corrupt. It’s almost amusing from a high altitude. Yet on the ground, it is closer to maddening. The country’s largest coal power station will run for almost two years longer than planned after owner Origin Energy said an extension was needed to keep the grid secure amid a slower
Charts from TME. Plenty of room for a healthy correction. Not so healthy for tech. Iiiieeeeehhhwww. Volaltity structure more bearish but not crazy by any means. There’s no rush for protection. But perhaps there should be. Err, there definitely should be. This chart is a doozy. When everybody is bullish… Be bearish. Especially as markets
The ferrous jaws have eased, but nowhere near enough. The news is amusing for bears. BHP Group’s iron ore discounts following Chinese pressure are “optical, temporary and economically bounded” and don’t reflect a decline in the mining giant’s pricing power, according to RBC Capital Markets. The world’s largest mining company is deliberately absorbing the discounts
Wall Street came back from its long weekend holiday and sold off immediately in response to the EU revokation of the previous Trump-induced 2025 trade deal as the fallout from the shambles over Greenland hit all risk markets. Treasury yields spiked as European bondholders started selling off US bonds, with the 10 year up near
Mea culpa! DXY is not enjoying new Trump tariffs, while EUR is. Greenland TACO, anyone? AUD is a golden safe haven. Donald Dump has turned China from univestable to investment essential. Gold, gold, gold for Australia! AI metals smashed. Big miners are trying to outrun the iron ore black hole. Good luck with that. EM
Australia’s November CPI release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that housing inflation rose by 5.2% over the year to November 2025. This made housing the single largest contributor to annual inflation in that release. The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro illustrates the quarterly acceleration in housing inflation, which has
Wall Street futures fell sharply alongside the USD (and Bitcoin) while gold and undollars rose on the weekend tariff orders from the Trump regime, with the Europeans playing hardball. Asian share markets are all in the red given the risk off mood with the latest Chinese economic figures (and more importantly – population figures –
Goldman has an AI tracker series to add to the data mix. Adoption is accelerating fast for enterprises. White collar firms are leading the way. SMEs are not being left behind. AI is creating some jobs. Straya is an early adopter. More of a headwind to hiring rather than outright job losses so far. The
Stocks are at their ATH but are crumbling. Charts from TME. NDX breaks the wedge. Everybody bullish. More. Vol stirring. More. Instos all-in. Robots all in. CTAs all-in. Everybody on one side of the ship…
The latest Newspoll revealed the enormity of the seismic shifts occurring in the tectonic plates that underpin federal politics. One Nation is now outpolling the Coalition on primary vote, 22% to 21%. For a Coalition already reeling from the lowest number of lower house seats in its history, this is a clear signal that the
This about sums it up. Equally, what’s with the Danes. Danish officials have decided not to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos this week amid an intensifying dispute over Greenland that’s shaking transatlantic relations. “Danish government representatives were invited this year, and any decisions on attendance are a matter for the government concerned,” the
In the years since the onset of the pandemic, the cost of American housing has risen to its highest level ever relative to incomes, significantly exceeding even the peak of affordability concerns during the previous U.S. housing bubble. As a result of higher prices and significantly higher interest rates than previously, housing turnover has dropped
Iron ore prices came off again yesterday, but the jaws remain wide. We should be at $90 in a rational market. CISA data for the first ten days of the year was 1.997mt which is mediocre but OK. What is worse is that steel inventories at CISA mills are 20% above last year’s levels and
When the Albanese government was returned to power at the May 2025 federal election, it achieved the strongest result for a first-term government returning to the ballot box since at least World War 2. Since the Second World War, Australia’s first-term governments had always lost seats in their first return to face the electorate, losing
You could be forgiven for concluding that the Michael Pettis moment has arrived in China. It has stopped building. The investment in fixed assets is currently experiencing an unprecedented decline. Food, transport and energy are the only positives. Sure, China cooked the books to meet its 5% GDP target, but the GDP deflator is severely
With Wall Street closed for a long weekend holiday most risk markets sold off overnight as the blackmail threats on Europe from the Trump regime with counter threats of tearing up the Trump-induced 2025 trade deal heightened concerns of a wider transatlantic trade war. European shares slumped while the USD fell back after firming on
There’s nothing quite like the spectacle of the most hated group of people in Australia banning hate! Politicians! Anthony Albanese’s bill to combat antisemitism will pass parliament in coming days despite an 11th-hour hurdle thrown up by opposition MPs harbouring concerns over proposed new powers that would allow the government to proscribe and ban “hate groups”. Despite
According to Cotality, Australia’s dwelling value-to-income ratio was tracking at a record high of 8.2 in the September quarter of 2025. Despite three 25-bp interest rate decreases from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the percentage of median family income required to service a new mortgage on a median-priced home was still historically high, at
