Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
Australia’s house price correction has steepened in July, with Cotality’s daily dwelling values index declining by 0.7% over the past 28 days across the five major capital city markets: As illustrated in the chart above, the decline at the 5-city aggregate level is being driven by Sydney and Melbourne (both -1.2%), although Brisbane and Adelaide
Via Westpac WestpacâMelbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index up 4.1% to 83.9. Pessimism still dominates but fuel price pressures and rate rise fears moderate. Consumers remain gloomy on economy and major purchase decisions. Job-loss concerns subside, unemployment expectations back near average. Homebuyer sentiment continues to recover from extreme lows but consumers less certain about house price
TME with positioning data. Positioning without the narrative Markets are often explained with one neat story. The data rarely cooperate. These charts simply show where different investors, from hedge funds and retail traders to insiders and options desks, are currently positioned. Some signals look stretched. Others suggest caution. Together, they paint a confusing picture. Nobody
Earlier today we got the latest net long term and permanent arrivals data from the ABS. In recent times it has become something of a lightning rod of controversy, as migration has become one of the most hotly contested political issues. Part of the issue stems from the fact that its not the official net
In the most recent YouGov poll, the nation’s electorate was polled on one of the most controversial questions of our age, housing prices. They were asked: “Thinking about house price prices, what do you think would be best for Australia overall, for house prices over the next two years?” The possible responses were increase, stay
Goldman provides an overview of the World Cup odds today. The final two berths in the World Cup semifinals were decided by extra time in both Saturday night games. Our expectations for Tuesday’s first semifinal are displayed in Exhibit 1. The primary predictions of our model for the remainder of the knockout stage are shown
Still more gas parasitism today. Santos has taken aim at Chris Bowenâs domestic gas reservation scheme for deliberately causing harm to its GLNG export venture, while also kneecapping its $4bn Narrabri gas field development in NSW. The criticism came as SGH boss Ryan Stokes called on the government to delay the reservation scheme until 2030
DXY is still threatening. AUD is unwell. The light and dark twins are back. Metals didn’t get the memo. Oil can only save miners to the point of economic demand destruction. The charts remain horrible. EM stocks met a barge pole. A few nerves are creeping into junk spreads. As the US loses the long-end.
Dump’s mad war is turning inexorably endless, in complete contradiction to MAGA and everything he’s supposed to stand for. Overnight we had: Trump threatens to strike Iran “hard” either tonight or tomorrow. Oil continues to rise close to month-highs after reports of Houthi missiles being fired at Saudi Arabia. Trump claims that the US blockade
While recent polling has seen One Nation fall back significantly from its recent all time highs in the polls, the Coalition’s political future at a federal level remains on life support. According to a polling analysis performed Mark the Graph over on Twitter (now known as X) from earlier in the month, the Coalition is
The worst corporation in Australia, Santos, is lying again. Recall that it was STO that created the gas cartel way back in 2010, by lying about how much gas it had. As Santos worked toward approving its company-transforming Gladstone LNG project at the start of this decade, managing Âdirector David Knox made the sensible statement
Goldman says household consumption is expected to slow significantly over the next 18 months, posing a key risk to the domestic economy. Consumer spending growth is forecast to fall from current levels to 1.3% year-on-year by the end of 2026, before recovering modestly to 2.4% by the end of 2027. As a result, economic growth
In explosive revelations reported by The Age, Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan’s Chief Infrastructure advisor confidentially estimated that the cost of rorts and rip offs could be as high as 30% on parts of Victoria’s ‘Big Build’. The ‘Big Build’ is the name the Victorian government has given to over $100 billion in public works such
Iron ore is following its seasonal pattern into a rebound (that will be aided by oil). But, underneath the bonnet, it is only getting worse. The latest CISA numbers are still down 6% YTD and YOY, below 2019. MySteel increasingly agrees. Realty awful. Stimmies are a bust. But more is being spent in the real
As the debate over the changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount continues, one of the major points of contention is the impact on new home building. According to estimates from Treasury, the changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount will reduce the number of homes being built over
The slavish MSM says the Strait of Hormuz is open. Bloomberg. US forces struck Iran again, after Tehran launched retaliatory attacks on at least five Arab nations. The Strait of Hormuz is âopen to all vessels,â the US declared, even though the Islamic Republic insisted it was closed âuntil further notice.â Traffic in the key waterway was almost non-existent
Since the Albanese government announced that negative gearing and the 50% capital gains tax discount would no longer apply to properties purchased from budget night onwards, the issue of the changes impact on rents has been a major point of discussion and contention. The popularised claim is that by making changes to the two policies
This week, the combined capital preliminary auction clearance rate increased to 54.8%, the highest early clearance percentage in seven weeks, following three weeks of staying below 50%. With last week’s preliminary clearance rate of 49.8% being revised down to 46.0%, the increase is off a low base. An 8.7% decrease in volume coincided with an
Of course he thinks it right to call the Head of FIFA about red cards in soccer matches involving the USA. Would Albo do that for the Socceroos? In a bizarre kind of way you have to admire Donald Trumpâs almost honesty. There is something about his bare faced effrontery and shamelessness,
Sunrise, Queenscliff, Victoria, Autumn 2026 Reads Near here Workers’ pay has not kept pace with productivity growth for 30 years, research suggests â ABCâŠ..so in 2026 âresearch suggestsâ when it has been obvious for more than a generation?…. Telstra recently warned about timing issue linked to national outage â ABC Australians face
Some guy named Angus Taylor has made a very poor case that One Nation will ruin the budget. Angus Taylor has warned a One Nation government would create an âeternity of painâ for Australians and deliver even worse economic outcomes than the ÂAlbanese government, likening Pauline Hansonâs populist party to the Greens in his fiercest
Since Canada slashed net overseas migration from it’s peak in the March quarter of 2024, one of the last major remaining pillars supporting the already vulnerable Canadian housing market has been removed, leaving it on increasingly risky ground. According to figures from the Bank for International Settlements, housing prices nationally are down by over 20%
With the release of the latest Cotality quarterly Rental Report, the dire state of the nation’s rental market has again been confirmed. Nationally, the rental vacancy rate was 1.7%, remaining near all-time lows and showing less than zero progress in addressing the rental crisis since Cotality’s data from this time last year, when the vacancy
The Iran War is in no danger of ending. It remains my view that Dump cannot handle losing and must always be bigger than yesterday. My ultimate fear is not that the war causes economic strife; it is that Dump uses this to derail midterm elections and effectively rules over a US civil war and
Here’s a summary of the AFR’s Grattan Institute panegyric today. The rise of the Grattan Institute from an idea discussed over coffee in Melbourne in 2008 to Australia’s most influential independent public policy think tank. Founded by figures including Glyn Davis and Terry Moran, Grattan was inspired by the Brookings Institution and established to provide
