Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
TME notes today how flushed the market already is. From Panic Selling To FOMO Buying From panic to FOMO in record time. Tech is back, volatility is collapsing, and the positioning washout has left plenty of fuel for another squeeze. CTAs are short, vol-control funds have slashed exposure, and investors are chasing the very stocks
For years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and others have forecast that global coal demand would peak, only for consumption to rise further. As illustrated below, global coal demand is running around 1 billion tonnes higher (~9%) than the IEA had expected only five years ago: “The forecasting error equals to the anual demand of
DXY finally broke out last night after a month of chopping wood. A bad sign for risk, especially since EUR should benefit most from diminishing energy risks. AUD is now in free fall. JPY is not well, either. Oil is on the march once more, and gold has a problem. Copper is starting to worry.
War headlines today. More ships ablaze in Hormuz. Houthis attack everything. Ukraine bombs another Russian refinery. Netanyahu plans an Iran attack. Brent and cracks jumped. LNG went nuts. The flow of oil is clearly slowing US inventory draws. However, diesel levels remain perilous despite falling exports lifting inventory a little. The best free service I can
Australia’s east coast state and territory governments are heavily reliant on stamp duties: The sharp downturn in the property market, therefore, threatens to hammer state budgets at a time when they are drowning in debt, and global borrowing costs are rising. S&P Global Ratings recently raised concerns that the nation’s record housing market downturn could
Six months ago, Brisbane’s and Perth’s housing markets were looking bulletproof. While Sydney’s and Melbourne’s dwelling values were falling sharply, these markets still reported solid growth amid a dearth of homes for sale. How times have changed. Following a flood of for-sale listings and downward price revisions from Cotality, Brisbane’s and Perth’s dwelling values are
The Albanese government is attempting to censor debate via its Digital Duty of Care Bill, which passed the lower house last week and would make the eSafety Commissioner the central regulator with significantly expanded powers to police what we say online. The Bill is essentially a repackaged version of the government’s abandoned misinformation and disinformation
Assistant Governor (Economic), Sarah Hunter, gave an informative speech this week about whether the central bank sees AI as macroeconomic phenomenon. So far, there is little evidence that AI has had large effects on aggregate employment in advanced economies, although there are emerging signs of weaker hiring, particularly among younger workers in highly AI-exposed occupations.15
Victoria’s Department of Treasury & Finance (DTF) will release a pre-election budget update on Thursday. Among other things, it will include the latest figures on the state’s debt burden, with net debt now forecast to top $197 billion in mid-2030. Heavily redacted documents released via Freedom of Information laws show that the DTF had warned
So, it appears Mr Murdoch is behind attempts to derail Australia’s gas reservation by misrepresenting industry objections as a fait accompli. Why he would do this, given it only costss his own mastheads money, I leave you to consider. Labor has rejected calls for wholesale changes to its contentious gas reservation scheme, with a government
TME on the new chase. The volatility trap From panic to FOMO in less than a week. VIX has collapsed from 28 to 20, short-dated hedges have been crushed and the very flows that amplified the selloff are now helping fuel the rebound. Dealer hedging, vol-control strategies and leveraged ETFs are increasingly dictating market direction.
The recent federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax have officially crashed investor mortgage demand. On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released mortgage commitment data for the September quarter of 2026, which showed broad-based declines across borrower types but the sharpest falls among property investors. The total value of new
War headlines today. Trump and Netanyahu reportedly in a screaming match. Gulf oil production back to pre-war levels: OPEC. No progress on talks. Brent and cracks appear to have completed their flush. LNG bounced harder. Iranian attacks are not slowing so far. Neither are Ukrainian attacks after the brief phony pause. Without some kind of
When the war in the Persian Gulf began in late February, there were swift concerns that the conflict could trigger a rerun of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, dramatically driving up global oil and energy prices. Today, oil prices are significantly higher in nominal terms, but we are in a very different situation than
Recall that Labor promised before the 2022 federal election to reduce average household electricity bills by $275 by 2025. This modelling was subsequently used as the basis of Labor’s fantastical 82% renewable energy target (RET), which became the foundation for the fanciful CSIRO GenCost Report and AEMO’s Integrated System Plan. Labor’s pledges were then smashed
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese declared that by the time the next election is called in 2028, Labor will be able to present a track record of Australia not having had a single quarter of negative economic growth under his government: “My government is halfway through this term. When we go to the next election in
That the energy transition is behind is old news. Now we are getting reports of what it might mean. Australian power prices are Âprojected to nearly double by 2029 as delays in building giant wind farms and the closure of coal plants throttle the nation’s energy transition, hiking pressure on Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen
Economists and the housing industry have repeatedly warned that the Albanese government’s removal of key investor tax concessions (negative gearing on existing homes and the 50% CGT discount) would drive rents higher by pushing investors out of the market. These claims typically ignore that rents have already surged nationally over the past four years due
TME on AI cheap! The panic vs reality Texas accounts for more than a quarter of planned US data center capacity additions through 2030, so talk of a potential moratorium has rattled the entire AI complex. But Goldman argues the market is missing an important distinction: restrictions on new permits don’t stop projects already under
The latest Scanlon Foundation Mapping Social Cohesion Survey, based on responses from 10,000 Australians, finds that Australians continue to lose faith in high immigration amid deteriorating living standards. One in three Australians (32%) believe their lives will be “a little or much worse” in the next three to four years. The survey notes this is
In less than three weeks, the people of Victoria got to the polls to render their verdict on the Carroll government, the latest iteration of a Labor that has been in power for 12 years. In the long history of Australian politics, there are remarkably few at a state or federal level that makes it
Yesterday, a couple of data releases painted an increasingly disturbing picture of the local economy. The NAB business survey is bleeding out. Business conditions -1pt to -2 Business confidence -1pt to -15 Trading conditions -4pt to -1 Profitability -2pt to -8 Employment +5pt to +4 Forward orders -11pt to -12 Capacity utilisation -7bp to 82.1%
War headlines today. Trump says the military phase is “effectively over”. Poll: Americans want Dems to end it now. Three more tankers on fire in Hormuz. Houthis bomb Riyadh, Yanbu pipeline. Brent and cracks fell again as the big long is flushed. Dated Brent is a falling stone. LNG bottomed out. There is also some
Australia’s record housing correction has seen dwelling values across the five major capital city markets decline by 8.8% since early April. At the current pace of -4.7% per quarter, values are likely to be down by 10% across the five major capital cities by Christmas. Tim Reardon, chief economist at the Housing Industry Association (HIA),
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index has been released and reveals that sentiment has crashed to a four-year low: The November fall was driven by a sharp deterioration in the near-term economic outlook. Over 70% of consumers expect mortgage rates to rise further over the next year, and expectations for house prices also took a
