Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
By Stephen Saunders Leaving Anthony Albanese as a world outlier, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has stymied Canada’s population growth to ease the housing pain. Sigh, his Australian visit was all framed around “middle powers” vs Trump. Australia endures historic highs in mass migration and historic lows in housing affordability. But the elite narrative is
International reading: US to release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserve – Reuters Iran says it’s ready for a long war that would ‘destroy’ global economy – Lemonde Saudi oil giant warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ from Iran war as three commercial ships are ‘attacked’ in Strait of Hormuz and Tehran tries to
The story for February was the surging Australian dollar running into incredible profit growth forecasts. Profit forecasts got stronger throughout the month, helping share prices higher, but for Australian investors, the rising AUD offset all of those gains. The key question in March is whether the profit growth (15%+ forecast for each of the next two years)
The Centre for Population’s latest Population Statement forecast that Australia’s capital cities will swell by 10,850,000 people over the next 41 years. Melbourne (9.1 million) and Sydney (8.5 million) are projected to become megacities by the mid-2060s, while Brisbane is tipped to grow by around 1.8 million to 4.6 million, and Perth by 1.7 million
Rising energy costs drive fertiliser prices up because modern fertiliser production is fundamentally an energy-intensive industrial process. The link is direct, mechanical, and unavoidable: energy is both a feedstock and a fuel. For nitrogen fertilisers (i.e., urea, ammonium nitrate, and ammonia), natural gas is the single biggest input cost, used as a feedstock in the
Joe Walker interviewed former immigration department bureaucrat-turned-influencer Abul Rizvi last year. During the interview, Rizvi openly acknowledged that slowing population ageing accounted for approximately “80%” of the motivation behind the 2001 changes that significantly increased Australia’s intake of migrants, particularly international students. WALKER: And so back in the late 90s, early 2000s, when you were
There is no hubris like BHP hubris. When you put yourself in front of an angry dictator you’ve been gouging for twenty years, eventually you’ll get yours. China has widened a ban on BHP iron ore for the second time in two weeks, escalating a months-long contract dispute with the world’s third-largest supplier of the
One Nation proposes allowing wage-earning couples with children to split their income and file joint tax returns, potentially saving thousands of dollars in taxes each year. Senator Pauline Hanson launched One Nation’s income-splitting policy in January, which permits couples with at least one dependent child to combine their incomes and divide the total equally for
Let’s ask the question that’s plaguing the Australian bourgeoisie’s nightmares today: will the oil shock of 2026 crash house prices? I’m pleased to inform you that the answer is becoming increasingly “yes.” As a rule of thumb, every 10% rise in the oil price adds 0.4% to inflation. Given that Iran is winning the war
For decades, Israel has tried to trap US presidents in a war with Iran. All have dodged the trap until now. The American Idiot has walked straight into the trap, either due to his own stupidity or Jeffrey Epstein pictures, or similar, and the trap has snapped shut behind him. Consider how bad a day
In the weeks since news of the war in Iran first hit the airwaves, the Albanese government has been attempting to reassure the Australian public that there is no real concern about fuel supply in Australia. The focus was on claims that fuel stocks are adequate and above the minimum mandatory levels. On Thursday, Energy
Independent economist Gerrard Minack recently posted the following chart illustrating how Australia’s rental inflation has tracked population growth: CBA’s latest housing market update notes that “there is a particularly strong relationship between increases in higher-density housing supply and rent growth”: “This likely reflects the fact that apartments make up a disproportionate share of the rental
Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors, published a short analysis of the impacts of rising energy costs on the federal budgets and on Australians as a whole: Joiner argues that the energy shock is “not bad for Australia” but “terrible for Australians”. Joiner notes that higher energy prices will likely drive up Australia’s export
According to the CommBank Household Spending Insights Index, household spending in Australia fell in February 2026 for the first time since September 2024, capping a 17-month era of rise. Annual growth slowed to 4.9%, the lowest level since August 2025, while spending decreased by 0.5% during the month. The decline indicates that, following a protracted
In this week’s podcast, Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, takes a closer look at the so-called TACO trade — and whether the conflict in Iran could set the stage for a surprise turnaround. We explore what’s driving recent market moves, how geopolitics is reshaping sentiment, and whether investors should be bracing for more
The federal budget is facing deepening budget deficits and rising net debt. The Albanese government is seeking to raise revenue by a series of changes to the taxation of superannuation, property, and family trusts. For example, the government will increase the tax on the earnings of large superannuation balances from 15% to 30% for balances
Charts from TME. Oil volatility is still climbing and pricing well above spot. Oil stocks to the moon. We’re all BFTD retail now. VLCC rates are through the roof as floating storage becomes the new strategic reserve. Chyna! Lol. No good for EUR raising the prospect that, at some oil price soon, it is no
Leading independent economist Gerard Minack produced the following chart last year showing that population growth is a major contributor to house price growth across global housing markets: “I am gobsmacked by how many people don’t accept the obvious point that population growth has been a contributor – probably the single most important contributor – to
Most commentary on the local gas price has been very bearish about what is coming next. It can hardly be blamed for thinking so, given the Asian price for gas is sitting at about $22Gj, and likely to go much higher. While the local price has been about one-third of that. Gas prices have now
Australia’s “productivity tsar”, Professor Gary Banks, was the long‑serving founding Chair of the Productivity Commission (1998-2013). Back then, you could trust the Productivity Commission to deliver sound advice grounded in evidence. Sadly, after Banks departed as chair in 2013, the Productivity Commission lost its way and became politicised. Banks has long advocated strongly for evidence‑based
Late yesterday, in a conversation with Michelle Grattan on The Conversation’s Politics podcast, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser talked about monetary policy, oil prices, and the Australian economy. Hauser said the Australian economy is now in fantastic shape. Over the past year, economic growth has accelerated, unemployment is still near all-time lows, and overall wealth and
Australia’s performative democracy is a circus of jingling clowns pretending to care about national interests while doing nothing of substance. This situation is largely due to the structure of political parties, which lends itself to corruption and cowardice in the face of vested interests. Therefore, political parties avoid conflict at all costs, even when it
Between the mid-1990s and 2004, Australia saw a strong rise in household formation for the 25 to 34 age demographic. With an adequate supply of new homes compared with dwelling completions, as illustrated by the chart below from AMP’s Shane Oliver, the nation’s younger demographics were able to form households in greater and greater numbers.
Roy Morgan’s latest mortgage stress report notes that the risk of mortgage stress fell to its lowest for three years in January, before the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked the official cash rate: Roy Morgan estimates that 23.9% of mortgage holders (1,184,000) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in January 2026, down 4% from
Cotality’s daily dwelling values index reports that Melbourne home values have declined by 0.1% over the past 28 days, whereas Sydney’s have recorded 0% growth: This week’s Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey for March showed that while consumer house price expectations remain strong, sentiment around whether now is a good time to buy a home
