Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The single most pressing issue facing the Australian economy is poor productivity growth. Australia has ranked among the poorest in the OECD over the past decade on labour productivity growth. ‘Capital shallowing’ is one reason for Australia’s poor productivity growth. Put simply, the nation’s population has expanded faster than business, infrastructure, and housing investment, resulting
According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), New Zealand house prices have fallen for more than 4.5 years after peaking in late 2021. The REINZ reported that house prices declined another 0.3% in June to be down 0.8% over the year. June house sales also declined by 1% in June to be
There is nothing Canberra likes better than killing the economy and you along with it. Albo’s AI speech yesterday was a classic case of announcing a new Department of Government Department to implement new legislative requirements for AI and data centres at the beginning of next year. Concerned about the environmental impact of AI data
The rise in consumer spending is a major factor behind the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary tightening, which has delivered three 25 bp rate hikes this year. The latest Household Spending Insights (HSI) from CBA, which is based on de-identified payments (i.e., credit card, debit card, keypad transactions, ATM, BPAY, Buy Now Pay Later and
CSIRO is out with its new annual GenCost, and it has addressed the sceptics of previous reports who quite rightly accused it of rigging the results by excluding the costs of the transmission buildout, to boost the appeal of renewables. The result is this: Historically, GenCost modelling relied on the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
There are two primary reasons why the federal government favours high levels of immigration. First, immigration boosts the economy as measured by GDP. As a result, implementing a high-immigration strategy allows the government to claim it is a competent economic manager, even when per capita GDP growth is negative (as it is currently) and individual
TME with the data. Maybe just take some risk off the table Nobody ever rings a bell at the top. But when retail is buying with both hands, fund managers are max long, cash levels trigger sell signals and valuations eclipse the dot-com era, maybe the smartest trade before boarding the plane is selling just
OECD data shows Australia has one of the highest income‑tax burdens on average workers in the developed world. Meanwhile, tax receipts from indirect sources like excises are shrinking as consumers shift to untaxed illegal tobacco and electric vehicles. Australia’s consumption taxes via the GST are also relatively low compared with OECD peers. This leaves personal
Between the beginning of April and the end of June, China’s economic growth drastically slowed as the oil shock hammered domestic demand. As we know, Chinese oil imports fell 6mb/d during the war, the largest buffer in the world, According to official GDP data, the second-largest economy in the world expanded by 4.3% in the
The news for the war is all bad. Pentagon announces second wave of strikes later Wednesday, the after initial 90-minute attack to start the day. Trump threatens wider strikes unless Iran returns to talks – says attacks to ‘expand’ next week. Wednesday saw 5th strait day of US bombardment on chiefly Iranian coastal sites. Iran hits US-Gulf bases and
When the pandemic first arrived on Australia’s shores in early 2020, it set off a fascinating economic experiment on a grand scale: what would productivity growth look like without not only high migration but no migration at all? In principle, migration should significantly boost productivity, as the government can select the best and brightest individuals
Harry Triguboff is the founder of Meriton, Australia’s largest apartment developer. He is also Australia’s richest man, with a net worth of around $US23 billion, according to Forbes. Triguboff’s wealth is tied to Sydney’s and south-east Queensland’s high-rise apartment markets, principally apartment construction and build-to-rent. Over the six years to June 2026, Australian capital city dwelling
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release its June labour force report on Thursday. May’s report reported an official unemployment rate of 4.4%, above the Reserve Bank’s latest forecast. A weak result on Thursday could lead the RBA to keep rates on hold, despite stubbornly high core inflation. The latest NAB business survey, released
TME with the warning. Sentiment & positioning Here are 8 new charts on sentiment & positioning. No conclusions. Just the charts. Retail at post-covid low Retail investors’ net single-stock buying has fallen to a new post-COVID low. All the money in SpaceX and just sit and wait…? Source: Goldman Sentiment: Not so much and not
The single most significant problem facing the Australian economy is low productivity growth. Australia’s labour productivity growth has ranked among the poorest in the OECD over the past decade and has barely increased since then. Part of the reason for Australia’s poor productivity growth relates to so-called ‘capital shallowing’ – i.e., the nation’s population has
The US Constitution is the most robust in the world, but there is a way for Dump to kill the midterms. Create an enormous oil shock. Trigger energy riots. Deploy the National Guard. Go to Congress and ask it to push back the midterm election date for public safety, which it can do. Rinse and
Australia’s rental market continues to deteriorate, with the latest data from Cotality showing that advertised capital city rents grew by 6.0% in the year to June, with the vacancy rate also tracking near historical lows: As a result, capital city advertised rents have increased by 42% over the past five years, adding roughly $11,300 to
Hand your fate to government, it will hand you back your arse. That is what has happened to Victoria. A post-Marxist revolution that takes offence at the slightest whiff of debate as “triggering” and has overrun government services as well. A truck fitted with digital billboards displaying controversial advertisements blasting Jacinta Allan and Anthony Albanese
The interest rate futures market has become far less hawkish on interest rates. Only a few months ago, the market was still tipping two more 25 bp interest rate hikes for 2026. Now, it has priced in a roughly 50% chance that the RBA will deliver one 25 bp hike this year. The latest trimmed
NAB’s horrible new layout for the monthly business review shows employment stalled with a lot of cost relief. However, what comes down goes up again thanks to the Dump, so expect this reverse skywards over H2 with oil. That said, the RBA would be pleased with this chart. Capacity utilisation is at its lowest in
The war is deepening and widening. Red Sea closure is the prime risk now as Houthis enter the war. Iran-US fighting is sustained but in tit-for-tat pace, with new reported strikes across the Gulf. Trump declares FULL blockade on Iranian ports, while IRGC asserts ‘wartime control’ of Hormuz. Trump drops 20% transit fee plan; oil
As housing prices continue to fall over an increasingly large proportion of the country, the Albanese government continues to insist that it wants higher housing prices. While the Prime Minister himself has increasingly avoided making commentary on the direction of prices, Housing Minister Clare O’Neil has made it clear the government wants higher housing prices.
Australia’s house price correction has steepened in July, with Cotality’s daily dwelling values index declining by 0.7% over the past 28 days across the five major capital city markets: As illustrated in the chart above, the decline at the 5-city aggregate level is being driven by Sydney and Melbourne (both -1.2%), although Brisbane and Adelaide
Via Westpac Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index up 4.1% to 83.9. Pessimism still dominates but fuel price pressures and rate rise fears moderate. Consumers remain gloomy on economy and major purchase decisions. Job-loss concerns subside, unemployment expectations back near average. Homebuyer sentiment continues to recover from extreme lows but consumers less certain about house price
TME with positioning data. Positioning without the narrative Markets are often explained with one neat story. The data rarely cooperate. These charts simply show where different investors, from hedge funds and retail traders to insiders and options desks, are currently positioned. Some signals look stretched. Others suggest caution. Together, they paint a confusing picture. Nobody
