Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
On Tuesday, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor unveiled the Coalition’s plan to slash the rate of net overseas migration to 100,000 for its first two years in government, before it was later allowed to rise to 160,000 per year. Taking these figures purely at face value, it is a far more sustainable intake than the one
The Coalition has announced its long-awaited migration policy, which you can read in full via this link. The key points are that the Coalition has promised to cut net overseas migration (NOM) to 100,000 over the first two years of the next parliamentary term, after which NOM will increase to 130,000 in year three and
Last week’s 25 bp interest rate hike from the Reserve Bank has dealt a hammer blow to consumer sentiment. Westpac’s monthly consumer sentiment survey fell 4.7% to 80.4, with responses during the survey week showing a “very sharp pull-back after the RBA rate hike”. “The sentiment read across the 40% surveyed after the RBA decision
Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has dashed hopes of any new cost-of-living relief, warning that his Government is about to be hit with billions of dollars in extra costs to service its debt. “You will see in the mid-year budget update a magnitude of some billions of dollars, unfortunately”, Chalmers told the media on Sunday. “There
Anthropic is concerned. Frontier AI giant Anthropic has declared that artificial intelligence poses an “industrial-scale threat’’ to Australia and could reduce “demand for human work’’. As a parliamentary inquiry probes OpenAI’s government data hacks and the AI industry’s creative “cannibalisation”, Anthropic has called for taxpayer support to retain, retain or redeploy workers whose jobs are
The Australian Greens elected a new leader, Senator David Shoebridge, last week after former leader Larissa Waters announced she was stepping away from the role because of chronic kidney disease. Shoebridge defeated former deputy leader Mehreen Faruqi — who quit her role to run for top spot — and the party’s Senate business manager Sarah
DXY is refusing to push higer on the tumbling EUR. AUD has found a bottom for now. Gold is irked by yields. Given Yanbu shut today, oil is notably weak. Metals bounced. Miners too. EM stocks suddenly look OK. Junk is horrible, but it’s trying. The long-end pushed higher despite lower energy. It’s still not
War headlines today. Houthis close Taiz bulge, lose Mocha. Houthis bomb Yanbu pipeline again and another refinery. Houthis bomb tanker in Bab al-Mandeb. Iran/US talks continue. Brent dropped 2% anyway to around $100. This is a good sign that enough oil is flowing through Hormuz, even if the rumour is that it has slowed over
When the United States and Israel kicked off the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf back in February, it set off a chain of events that will continue to echo around the world long after the conflict has been consigned to the history books. For over eight decades since the Second World War, nations around
According to The Australian’s Mackenzie Scott, more than 102,000 Australians have used the federal government’s 5% first-home buyer (FHB) deposit scheme since it was expanded on 1 October 2025. Analysis by realestate.com.au suggests about 1,143 households that took the offer of buying a home with a deposit of just 5% were likely in negative equity
The 2026 Intergenerational Report, released last month, forecasts that the federal budget will remain in deficit for the next 40 years, with tax receipts falling short of expenditure. A major headwind for the federal budget is the expected decline in corporate tax receipts from the mining sector amid lower commodity prices. The Australian Taxation Office’s
If you are sceptical about Australia’s energy transition, which I am less so than LVO, these charts will really piss you off. The following data uses EDGAR, the EU carbon tracker, World Bank and Climate Change Authority data. How is Australia’s gross carbon emissions abatement going? We are an absolute bludger. How is it that
According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand’s (REINZ) leading house price index, which is used by the Reserve Bank, home prices nationally have collapsed back to late 2017 levels in real terms following a near five-year decline: New data from Cotality likewise shows that New Zealand’s house price crash has reasserted itself following
Iron ore is crashing. Except it isn’t. The freight premium is coming out. C5 has dropped $6 from the peak in the last few weeks. Adjusted for normal freight costs, CFR is roughly stable around $87. Forward indicators remain poor. Steel demand is pancaked. Steel production improved to catastrophic. Iron ore is growing at ports
Treasurer “Spin” Jim Chalmers defended the federal government’s inflation record ahead of Tuesday’s 0.25% rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Chalmers insisted at a press conference with Finance Minister Katy Gallagher on Monday that the war in the Middle East, not government spending, was driving inflation. Spin Jim also insisted that other
TME with the update on market positioning. The upside pain trade Markets have spent weeks preparing for more pain. Positioning has been slashed, policy pessimism is near a 30-year extreme, tech is being sold and Russell exposure is washed out. Yet equities have refused to properly crack. Now rates may be starting to offer the
War headlines today. Houthis bomb Riyadh refinery. Iran bombs three tankers over weekend. US bullies Europe into release of 100mb of inventory. China stops product exports. Windward total oil transits last week were at about 80mb. If we add Fujairah, Yanbu and North American export offsets, we are down about 2mb/d. It has clearly improved
Like clockwork with the release of each of month’s inflation data from the ABS, there is a social media post from Treasurer Jim Chalmers talking up how either the success in fighting inflation is down to Labor or how the lack of effective inflation fighting is down to external forces or other elements beyond their
To date, Australia’s housing correction has been driven by the two largest capital cities, Sydney and Melbourne. As illustrated below, Cotality’s daily dwelling values index has recorded a 6.6% decline from its peak across the five major capital city markets, led by declines of 8.8% recorded in Sydney and 7.4% in Melbourne: However, Cotality’s daily
Auction clearance rates have historically been a strong leading indicator of dwelling value growth, especially in major capital city markets. As CBA shows below, this year’s auction clearance rates have tracked well below those of 2025 and 2024, reflecting the sharp decline in the nation’s dwelling values. Dwelling values across the five major capital cities
Below is CBA economist Lucinda Jerogin’s round-up of this week’s economic and housing data: Key points: The RBA hiked the cash rate 25bps on Tuesday to 4.60%, its highest level in 15 years. The decision was unanimous. We expect for the RBA to be on hold from here, but risks are heavily skewed to another
International Reading: Most Americans blame Trump for high prices as his economic approval hits new low, AP-NORC poll shows – AP News RFK Jr Announcing That AI Is Now Better Than Human Doctors – Futurism The Fed Is Caught Between Inflation, $40 Trillion in Debt and Global Risk – Real Narratives Credit card delinquency in
The 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, released in July, revealed that: Oil consumption hit a record high. Natural gas consumption hit a record high. Coal consumption hit a record high. Fossil fuels accounted for 86% of total energy supplied. Carbon emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels hit a record high. Last week, the
Aussie bonds are attracting wider interest. Australia’s benchmark bond yield looks poised to fall below its US counterpart for the first time in over a year, as expectations for monetary policy in the two economies diverge. With bets growing that the Reserve Bank of Australia is nearing the end of its tightening cycle while the
Roy Morgan’s latest mortgage stress survey shows that 32.3% of mortgage households were at risk of mortgage stress in August, with 22.7% extremely at risk: Mortgage stress was tracking at its highest levels since the peak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in mid-2008, when the official cash rate hit 7%. The Reserve Bank of
