Hi all, A quick note to offer guidance on the new website. As well as the layout changes that make it easier to access content for new readers, it comes with a dramatically improved sign-up and resubscription process, greatly enhanced speed, and a much better mobile experience (since 95% of traffic is now phone!). The
The notion that renewable energy is cheap to generate (because the fuel source is free) but very expensive to integrate is being borne out by recent cost blowouts in transmission and storage. Already we have seen the cost of the Snowy Hydro 2.0 storage project balloon from an initially announced $2 billion to more than
In this weekās podcast, Nucleus Wealthās Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, examines what Nvidiaās latest earnings tell us about the AI boom ā with record revenue, strong data centre demand, and another major upgrade to its outlook suggesting thereās still plenty of runway ahead. We unpack whatās driving the relentless AI spending, whether the pace
If you want to see a failed market in action, look at this chart. While there was a debate about gas taxes and domestic reservation, the gas export cartel pushed the price lower to hoodwink the public. Now it is over, and global prices are going nuts; the price is glued to the $12Gj price
Melbourne’s population has already expanded by around 2 million people (roughly 57%) this century, from around 3.5 million in 2000 to 5.5 million currently. This rapid growth has been highly problematic, creating intense pressure on infrastructure and services. Victoria’s per capita economic growth and productivity have also lagged the nation’s significantly. The state is drowning
Rate hike calls are reaching screaming levels. Goldman has pivoted. Housing Price Collapse: Australian capital-city prices down 4.6% from March peak, projected 15% decline in Sydney/Melbourne by mid-2027 (largest downturn on record), triggering 130bp drag on consumer spending growth and pressuring GDP via negative wealth effects. RBA Policy Timing Shift: Base case for November cash
Ben Carroll took over as the premier of Victoria in late July. He previously served as the state’s deputy premier from 2023. As a result, he was involved in all major decisions. Since he became premier, Carroll has backtracked on a range of decisions, arguing that there’s a new sheriff in town and that he
DXY is doing a whole lot of sideways. AUD is threatening to jump above CNY and challenge the long-term resistance line at 72 cents. The twins of doom are opposites again. AI metals have no fear, or is that a double top on copper? Big miners not quite so pucker. EM trying again. Not sure
War headlines today. Iran claims two tankers ablaze in Hormuz were hit by mines. Iran says 19 dead after US attacks. Readying response. Trump doesn’t care less about negotiations. Bombs two Iranian tankers in “tanker for tanker” policy. Houthis explosive drone boat blown up in Red Sea. Brent and cracks eased slightly after yesterday’s rip.
When total Australian federal government debt recently ticked over the $1 trillion mark, it triggered a war of words over who should take the lion’s share of responsibility for reaching this undesirable milestone. In the view of opposition leader Angus Taylor, the blame lies with the Labor Party. “A trillion dollars of Labor debt is
Like clockwork, Treasurer “Spin” Jim Chalmers was quick to talk up Wednesday’s soft GDP results of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which saw the aggregate economy grow by 0.4% over the June quarter to be 2.1% larger year-over-year: “The national accounts show that our economy is quite resilient and robust in the face of
Various bank economists predicted that the economy would slide back into a per capita recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP per capita, ahead of Wednesday’s Q2 2026 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). However, the result was slightly stronger than expected, with Australia’s real GDP
To great fanfare. This is not quite as salubrious as it seems. This is installed capacity, not actual electricity produced. On that measure, solar and wind are still well behind coal. Be aware that 2026 H1 is annualised, so it may overstate the coal displacement. There are a few reasons to expect the transition to
Australia’s productivity growth over the past decade has been among the poorest in the OECD, hampering economic and per capita growth and contributing to the nation’s inflationary pressures. Australia’s original “productivity tsar”, Professor Gary Banks, was the long-serving founding chair of the Productivity Commission (1998-2013). Back then, you could trust the PC to deliver sound
Roy Morgan sees 18-year highs in mortgage stress. New research from Roy Morgan shows 32.5% of mortgage holders āAt Riskā of āmortgage stressā in July 2026, up 2.2% points from June 2026 and after three interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank (RBA) during the first few months of this year. The 32.5% of mortgage
Australia has experienced the biggest migration boom in the nationās history. According to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, 1,100 net migrants per day landed in the first 3.5 years of the Albanese government. As a result, there were nearly 300,000 more migrants in Australia as of Q4 2025 than if migration had
RBC says buy gold. Weāve stayed consistent this year, sticking with the forecasts we published back in December of last year, and for good reason. Repeatedly in our weekly āCommodity Comment, ā we have highlighted that while the underlying drivers for gold may have been on pause, they remained intact. Despite more than a lost
War headlines today. US attacks southern Iran with a BB gun. Iranās Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says if Iran can’t export oil, nobody can but admits some is getting through. Iran welcomed at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting. War intensifies in Yemen. Markets are freaking out just a little today as Brent rises strongly and
Amid the collapse of mega Australian developer Bathla, administrators have revealed that the company owes $3.3 billion, plus the deposits of thousands of buyers of off-the-plan properties. An editorial in the Australian Financial Review called Bathla’s collapse: “Australian private creditās cockroach moment” With the fall into voluntary administration of a developer that is currently building
Cotality has revised its daily dwelling values index downward, making the current housing correction worse than previously thought. The quarterly rate of decline at the 5-city aggregate level is now 3.8%, up from 3.0%, with all major markets recording significant declines. The decline from the most recent peak is also now far worse than thought,
Leading up to Wednesday’s June quarter national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australia had experienced 10 out of 15 quarters of negative per capita GDP growth, with the March quarter of 2026 printing at -0.1%: Following the release of the GDP partials by the ABS on Monday and Tuesday, economists are
Just when you thought the Albanese government’s gaslighting over the housing crisis couldn’t get any lower, Anika Wells, the Minister for Communications and Minister for Sport, published the following videos on social media equating the housing crisis to the supply of Ooshies: Wells remarks that “the ushy market and the Australian housing market are dictated
This is a beauty of a union claim at Sydney University. The union is demanding āprovisions to protect staff against any adverse effects of artificial intelligence systems in the workplace,ā as well as a 20 per cent pay rise for all staff, and 17 per cent superannuation for casual workers, in a log of claims
I argued last week that Australia’s globally high inflation is homegrown, as illustrated by services inflation tracking at 4.1% in the year to July, well above the broader trimmed mean inflation rate of 3.6%. Housing inflation is posing a particular problem for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). It comprises nearly one quarter of the
I noted yesterday that Chinese steel output is going bust. This has failed to put a dent in inventories. What it is doing, nonetheless, is rocketing the steel price. This does not make much sense. For instance, rebar has enormous idle capacity. Radiant is still in its death throes. Radiant World’s head of China iron
Luke Kinsella at The AFR has written a fantastic report on the rising number of federal public servants under the Albanese government. Australiaās federal public service has grown dramatically under the Albanese governmentāup 23% or around 36,700 staff since 2022. The APS is expanding by 28 new staff per day, reaching 195,847 employees by December
