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‘North Head from above Balmoral, Sydney Harbour’ 1866 Conrad Martens, Art Gallery of NSW Global Macro Nvidia becomes world’s first $4tn company– BBC Why is Trump targeting Brazil – and will it backfire for Bolsonaro?– BBC Snap, crackle, sale: Nutella maker Ferrero plans to buy WK Kellogg for $3 billion– AP US economy
More bullying from the Trump regime as it hits former ally Canada with blanket 35% tariffs in its latest letter “diplomacy” that briefly saw the Loonie sell off sharply and rattle some Asian share markets before some stability prevailed. Some more co-ordinated US Treasury selling in the coming days or weeks could enhance the TACO
Get set for a “growth mindset”. Or, should that read, get ready for a barrage of motherhood statements followed by a corporate tax cut? The PC’s Danielle Wood is readying for her moment of glory. Nine. First, we can’t talk about productivity without talking about the immense potential of new technologies such as artificial intelligence.
Unlike the sick man of Asia, the US is rebuilding industry. Morgan Stanley. Our US Industrials analysts note that since 2018, the US has increased its share of global capex significantly — a notable reversal from the decline following China’s WTO entry in 1999. The US now accounts for roughly 30% of incremental global capex,
Back in October 2009, then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd publicly came out in favour of a ‘Big Australia’ following the release of what was then the latest Intergenerational Report. The plan was to rapidly expand Australia’s population growth to a level where it would hit 35 million by 2050. At the time, this prompted criticism
A couple of stories today make for some very unsettling reading about Kevin Rudd’s role in Australia’s pivot to China. The pivot comprises two halves. First, Rudd is failing in Washington. With Australia clearly on the outer of the Trump administration, we already know Rudd’s pre-appointment insults have played a passive role. Now, it appears
With the release of the latest U.S. employment figures last week, a still relatively robust American labour market in aggregate was revealed. In the minutes and hours that followed, analysts began to put together the pieces as to why it had remained so strong: non-market job creation. For those perhaps not familiar with the term,
At the recent federal election, the Albanese government was reelected with by far the best result for a first-term government in the nation’s post-World War 2 history. Such was the failure of the Opposition, led by Peter Dutton, to present an alternative case for its leadership to the Australian people that the Coalition now holds
Chinese inflation is sinking again. The CPI is stalled while the PPI gallops backwards. CPI: +0.1% yoy (+1.9% mom annualised*) in June vs. GS: -0.1% yoy, Bloomberg consensus: -0.1% yoy; May: -0.1% yoy (+0.5% mom annualised*). Food: -0.3% yoy in June (+6.2% mom annualised*) vs. -0.4% yoy in May. Non-food: +0.1% yoy in June (+1.1%
When Cotality starts talking about specific suburbs, you know the boom is not here yet. Almost 45% of all suburbs across Australia are now at a record high in value, according to Cotality’s latest Housing Chart Pack. The suburb-level analysis reveals the broad-based nature of the current housing upswing, with values across 44.8% of the 3,722 suburbs
The Market Ear on crushed volatility. The rocket fuel is running out. Kill volatility The race to reset VIX and MOVE has been strong, but don’t forget volatility is a mean reverting asset. Source: LSEG Workspace Natural floor Using options for directional plays is attractive again… irrespective if you are bullish or bearish. VIX at
DXY is up and EUR down. AUD doesn’t care because Chyna! Lead boots are not so persuaded. Oil sense, gold trouble. Metals scream Chyna! Even big miners! EM meh. Yields edged up. Stocks stalled. Chyna! is going to yawnulate again! And consolidate! No it isn’t. But we can enjoy the rally while it lasts. Oddly,
New record highs for Wall Street and Bitcoin as the latest US weekly initial jobless numbers weren’t as high as expected, giving USD another lift against most of the undollars. However, the Australian dollar rallied on more Chinese stimulus speculation while Lots of auctions in the US Treasury market saw 10 year yields dip lower
Most Asian share markets are mixed despite a solid lead from Wall Street overnight, with local stocks taking back their recent losses despite the constant bullying from the Trump regime’s tariffs on pharmaceuticals. There’s more tariff announcements and letter printing on the way, but of course we still await the TACO trade. Oil markets are
This is why. The Guardian. The West Australian Labor premier, Roger Cook, has encouraged his federal counterparts to consider a gas reserve on the east coast as it mulls a regulatory overhaul to shore up supply and contain prices. Cook said WA’s gas reservation policy, which requires offshore producers set aside 15% of supplies for
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused following the RBA this week. The decision was expected. ANZ sees it as temporary. Our view on today’s decision was that the recent soft data justified another 25bp OCR cut, but that lingering concerns about upside inflation risks would on balance see the Committee decide to hold the
Ferrous markets are hoping against hope! Nomura has a great assessment of the Chinese economy. It seems like “déjà vu all over again” for China’s economy. During the past few years, we have observed first halves associated with optimistic expectations for a sustained stock market boom, a decent growth recovery, an end to the property
Since the international borders reopened following the pandemic, a sizable proportion of Australia’s growth has stemmed from two sources: exports and government spending. Given the impact of the war in Ukraine on commodity prices, it’s self-evident that exports would play a major role in the growth of the economy. But there is a surprising factor
Tesla has finally, sort of, launched driverless cars. Waymo is doing 250,000 trips per week. Join us this week as Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen look at the big picture for driverless cars and what they mean for investors. View the presentation slides Can’t make it to the live series? Catch up on the
Recently the topic of the total proportion of the population made up by migrants has been making headlines in the United States, Britain and parts of Europe. This prompted quite the level of conversation on social media, so I thought it would be interesting to see where Australia stands both relative to itself historically and
Goldman with the note. Price data through May provide preliminary evidence on how tariff costs are being divided among foreign exporters, US businesses, and US consumers. Foreign exporters might absorb some of the costs by lowering their export prices to the US, which would show up as lower US import prices. Although aggregate US import
What a goose Albo is. He’s put Rudd in Washington to torpedo ANZUS and then used that as an excuse to cuddle up to Beijing. But the bill is coming due. A Trump administration review of the $368 billion AUKUS pact could see the US demand Australia pay more for submarines, The Sydney Morning Herald
The Market Ear with more. Negative asymmetry for equities near-term Goldman’s macro strategists are not buying the summer melt-up thesis and are sounding more cautious than in a while. “We are tactically neutral in our asset allocation (OW cash, N equities/credit/bonds, UW commodities). We still expect a worsening growth/inflation mix in 2H and elevated risk
This is the ship of fools that nearly cut rates 50bps in May, then didn’t cut at all in the following meeting despite an economy that had clearly deteriorated. Chair Michele Bullock is not a macroeconomist. Deputy chair Andrew Hauser is a macroeconomist Marnie Baker AM is not a macroeconomist. RenĂ©e Fry-McKibbin is a macroeconomist.
DXY is trying to rally. AUD has flamed out despite RBA’s inept monetary policy. Lead boots are going downhill again. Gold is shaky, oil stupid. The copper chaos intensifies. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk up. With yields down. A stalled EUR is rescuing stocks. UBS captures the moment. British pop group Bucks Fizz gained international
